How many USA Coronavirus deaths by 5/1?

[JoshSP1985]

I went for a 5 mi walk yesterday and *******s were everywhere not following the 6 ft rule. MOTHERFUKERS

Doesn't really apply within households.

[Jayarbie]

By August 4th

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill...y-august%3famp

That's on the low end of what I would expect, but I guess not too unreasonable. It's probably going to be 50,000 by 5/1, and I'd personally guess near 65,000 by June 1, but it's going to be slowing at that point, too, so I'd think 70-75,000 by Aug 4? There will likely be another mini-spike near the end of the year, so by the time the vaccine is ready next spring, I'd be surprised if we're not over 100k.

The key to ending all of the restrictions is going to be testing. There needs to be widespread antibody testing to determine how many people have actually been exposed so far (because it's way more than 400k, but how much - 3x, 5x, 10x?). There also needs to be an ability to control breakouts through quarantining and contact tracing, but to do that, you have to start with a very low number of infections in the public, and you have to have extensive on-demand testing to catch all cases very early (I mean, like go to any CVS and get tested for free and get an immediate result level of on-demand testing) and then also test everyone who that person came in contact with very quickly. Quarantine and contact tracing is what worked in SK, and it's what was tried here at first, but when they started actually testing for it, it quickly became apparent that there were millions of cases in the country already and not nearly the testing capability we needed to contain it. Hopefully, all this social distancing will reduce the number of community spread infections to a manageable number, but we still need to significantly ramp up the testing capabilities (I've seen stuff in the works, but the quarantine can't really be lifted until it's in mass production and rolled out).

[Jayarbie]

A lot of ppl revised their estimates simply because for a few days recently, the number of new cases dropped. However, yesterday, it shot right back up. Could just be noise. We have no idea how the actual trend is rn.

If you trust the confirmed case count as a proxy for the actual spread of the virus, the confirmed cases were only up about 9% daily yesterday. The daily increase was 35% before social distancing and has been decreasing since then. It's been 8.5-9% for the last 3 days.

[gachase21]

How would the biochemistry work out and the stuff I can’t discuss here that Lance Armstrong might consider

[gachase21]

An interesting now removed/deleted article on medium. sifts through most of the anecdotal evidence and bull**** provided by the msm. give it a read

https://archive.is/ONUmi

This is actually a really good write up.


Still inconclusive on the stuff. but great thoughts

[gachase21]

Wincel question:


What current % of the US population do you think already have the virus?

[z4v4]

2017-2018 flu season claimed 61k lives. It isn’t the flu, but it isn’t Ebola either. The case for crashing the economy and destroying people’s livelihoods is becoming less convincing each day. We did the right thing at the start, but the time to get back to normal is approaching. If we could get antibody testing done large-scale, we could kore forward with more confidence.

You sure it was 61K lives? I mean, you think the same people are not using the same metrics for h1n1 as they are for covid? Just lmao.

[SillieBazzillie]

Estimates put CV deaths at 500k w/o mitigation, flu deaths would be right there as well without mitigation. We still have tens of thousands of deaths in the US with vaccination and with herd immunity. Without those existing dampers flu deaths would be drastically higher than they are currently. It's not a stretch to think that the given the same environment that the flu and cv would kill a similar amount of people.

Today CV is more dangerous absolutely, my point was in following seasons it may end up killing even less people seasonally than the flu.

lol. Even with the country in lockdown Covid will kill 100k.

[gachase21]

lol. Even with the country in lockdown Covid will kill 100k.

Same question above for you

[JoshSP1985]

lol. Even with the country in lockdown Covid will kill 100k.

Calling the country in lock down is kind of disingenuous. By name maybe but in reality no. A vast majority of the country is working and the rest are still going shopping at the stores that are open.

Also COVID deaths will be overstated as they're counting any deaths with a positive COVID test as a COVID death.

[SillieBazzillie]

Calling the country in lock down is kind of disingenuous. By name maybe but in reality no. A vast majority of the country is working and the rest are still going shopping at the stores that are open.

Also COVID deaths will be overstated as they're counting any deaths with a positive COVID test as a COVID death.

Vast majority are working? Are you insane?

[El Conquistador]

wincel dude, why not take a break until may 1. whether you're going to be right or wrong, debating it now serves no useful purpose and continuing to make fake accounts is just a really juvenile look. you're destroying any credibility you hope to have with each new account you create.

Here's a thought: How about people stop responding to his alts and quit giving him the attention he craves. I would be pretty bored if I wasn't getting any reaction from anyone.

[gachase21]

No idea. I'd say it is reasonable to assume only around 5% of those who have it get tested. If so, then that would mean maybe 8.5 to 9 mil people in the US have or have had the virus. IDK what the maximum would be, but we clearly have a ways to go before most of the population has encountered it. Hopefully, we won't need to get there though. If they can quarantine affected regions, they can really drop it to where there won't be too many new cases. Right now, NY is a chithole, but they have seen covid cases all over the country, so it is only a matter of time before we see explosions elsewhere.

So you think 2.7% of the population have it?

[BearyManilowe]

Vast majority are working? Are you insane?

Last I checked, unless unemployment was around 50% then yes, the majority of the country is working.

Since unemployment is still low even with the "lockdown", yes, the vast majority of people are still working.

[JoshSP1985]

Vast majority are working? Are you insane?

Are you?

Do you have any idea how many jobs are considered essential? And then consider all the supply chains supporting them from manufacturing to distribution wholesale and retail etc.

Example I work in trades related distribution we're all working, the contractors that buy from us are working, the manufactures that supply us are working. The logistics companies that move this crap around are working.

Same can be said about the auto industry, the medical industry, the sanitation industry, on and on and on and on.

[NYPat]

Amazing that people here still think this is comparable to the flu. Absolutely astonishing.

[gachase21]

Yeah something like that would be my ballpark. Could realistically be anywhere up to even like 10% though. All depends on how representative the testing is of the general population. I have no way to quantify that. Considering how it starts out mild and seems like a flu for most young people, we really have no way of knowing. It is possible that most of the population has already encountered the virus, but I doubt it because of the way the growth curve looks. This is also mainly exploding in NY, but it will catch on elsewhere too. It clearly hasn't yet.

I think at this point that growth curve is useless information skewed by so many variables.


At this point it’s more reflective of our emerging ability to test than anything else.

[isingmodel]

Amazing that people here still think this is comparable to the flu. Absolutely astonishing.

You are honestly astonished that a primarily republican forum is full of scientifically illiterate dregs?

[gachase21]

The death curve matters too, and it is showing exponential growth as well. Testing also hasn't grown exponentially afaik. Positive tests, on the other hand, have. Hospitals in NY are complaining about running out of stuff so clearly the virus is making waves. More and more people are starting to know someone affected.

As of now death curve is all that matters IMO.


The reminder is basically useless information -maybe later it will mean some thing when we hit a baseline of an equivalent number of test we are able to administer daily.

[JoshSP1985]

The death curve matters too, and it is showing exponential growth as well. Testing also hasn't grown exponentially afaik. Positive tests, on the other hand, have. Hospitals in NY are complaining about running out of stuff so clearly the virus is making waves. More and more people are starting to know someone affected.

Wish we knew how many deaths are dead with Covid not dead because of covid. Right now if you test positive even if asymptomatic you're classified as a covid death.

[JoshSP1985]

True. But let's also keep in mind they have noticed a large increase in the number of at home deaths from people. These numbers are not being included in covid estimates of death even though this is likely due to covid. Most experts have suggested the death estimates are actually undercounting the deaths and not overcounting them for this reason, in spite of the potential for a falsely attributed death to covid.

Fair point

[|ceman]

Last I checked, unless unemployment was around 50% then yes, the majority of the country is working.

Since unemployment is still low even with the "lockdown", yes, the vast majority of people are still working.

The vast majority of people were still working during the great depression too.

Right now if you test positive even if asymptomatic you're classified as a covid death.

that's a lie. They aren't testing people who show no symptoms but who die in car crashes or because of a heart attack. Much cope.

[z4v4]

Vast majority are working? Are you insane?

Now, now, only 15 million peeps have filed for unemployment the last 3 weeks. We've got the best unemployment numbers. Beautiful unemployment. The most beautiful jobless claims, big league.

[Weightaholic]

Some folk sure are desperate to keep the flu schtick going, aren't they.

[BearyManilowe]

The vast majority of people were still working during the great depression too.

So then, yes, the vast majority of people are still working. Thanks for agreeing with us.

[gachase21]

Wish we knew how many deaths are dead with Covid not dead because of covid. Right now if you test positive even if asymptomatic you're classified as a covid death.

Let’s assume 10% of the population have the virus.


Personally I think thats low.


So going in to this the US average of 7300 deaths today.


So then you could assume 730 covid deaths per day were already death that we’re going to happen, and use the excess amount of whatever the person of population that have the virus as your measuring point.



The only problem with that is we might also have some reduced deaths from people staying at home.


So what ever ends up if we reach a constant baseline of deaths less than the population % that have the virus, we are more or less done with it.

[gachase21]

Evening rankings





US holding vert steady, only at 45.



Europe is getting crushed.



EU’s top scientist booted

Coronavirus: EU top scientist forced out in political row

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52212390


You don’t let the “stem experts” make decisions or policy you leave that the leadership.

The culture of “let the experts decide” is paying the price- stem minds are incapable of incorporating wisdom with thought.


The social distance too much too early, with the wrong people - and failed young people developing herd immunity in time.


A few of the leaders wanted to but ,then succumb to the pressure.

[ScottTil]

sooo looks like the daily number of new confirmed cases so far peaked on 4/4. Which is good I guess.
I mean I wouldn't be surprised if we see an upswing still but nevertheless looks like top of the curve is incoming bros.
https://cv19info.live/us/

[gachase21]

sooo looks like the daily number of new confirmed cases so far peaked on 4/4. Which is good I guess.
I mean I wouldn't be surprised if we see an upswing still but nevertheless looks like top of the curve is incoming bros.
https://cv19info.live/us/

I’ll get my hopes up in June.


I think it prob hit the west coast mostly in December, and we just didn’t measure.


We will see I guess.

[ScottTil]

I’ll get my hopes up in June.


I think it prob hit the west coast mostly in December, and we just didn’t measure.


We will see I guess.

Obviously April is a goner. I think most places will be still shutdown in may but I'm hopeful that June 1st it's back to work for me.