Reply
Page 1 of 3 1 2 3 LastLast
Results 1 to 30 of 67
  1. #1
    Can't stand ya Costanza! JPG13's Avatar
    Join Date: Aug 2014
    Posts: 1,533
    Rep Power: 1557
    JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000)
    JPG13 is offline

    Lead epidemiologist Neil Ferguson redacts statement of 500,000+ UK C-19 deaths....

    to less than 20K. Keep in mind his initial estimations were spread like wildfire by the media last week....

    https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/sta...33211011690499


    https://www.newscientist.com/article...pert-predicts/
    Mod Neg Crew
    Green to red Crew
    Red to Green Crew
    Reply With Quote

  2. #2
    Registered User Jayarbie's Avatar
    Join Date: Apr 2010
    Age: 48
    Posts: 11,325
    Rep Power: 57823
    Jayarbie has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Jayarbie has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Jayarbie has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Jayarbie has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Jayarbie has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Jayarbie has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Jayarbie has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Jayarbie has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Jayarbie has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Jayarbie has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Jayarbie has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000)
    Jayarbie is online now
    I don't know what the right number is for either the UK or the US, but I am definitely coming around to the belief that a chitload of people have already had this, way more than the Imperial College model anticipated when it basically assumed that no one had any immunity. I'm now up to 5 people that I know who all had a really bad sickness with the exact Covid-19 symptoms in January or February, including one who was hospitalized in the ICU for a week because of breathing problems. Two of the five tested negative for the flu and none were ever tested for coronavirus at all because it wasn't a thing then. I'm sure that there were a bunch of people who died in that timeframe with a listed cause of death of "pneumonia" or just natural causes that were likely actually from the disease as well.
    Reply With Quote

  3. #3
    Proud Dad 5x10's Avatar
    Join Date: Apr 2007
    Age: 41
    Posts: 33,272
    Rep Power: 257124
    5x10 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) 5x10 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) 5x10 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) 5x10 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) 5x10 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) 5x10 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) 5x10 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) 5x10 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) 5x10 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) 5x10 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) 5x10 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000)
    5x10 is offline
    Yep, the imperial college study was too aggressive with its #s
    Dallas Cowboys

    Lifted for 26 years

    Ass > tits
    No Debt Crew
    Reply With Quote

  4. #4
    Premium User Slayermanlet's Avatar
    Join Date: May 2017
    Posts: 3,336
    Rep Power: 26862
    Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000)
    Slayermanlet is online now
    Great news
    There is more wisdom in your body than in your deepest philosophy

    *~UK Brah~*
    Reply With Quote

  5. #5
    Can't stand ya Costanza! JPG13's Avatar
    Join Date: Aug 2014
    Posts: 1,533
    Rep Power: 1557
    JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000)
    JPG13 is offline
    Hell, even Cuomo is talking about partially opening up the NY economy soon...


    https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/gov-cu...state-economy/
    Mod Neg Crew
    Green to red Crew
    Red to Green Crew
    Reply With Quote

  6. #6
    Can't stand ya Costanza! JPG13's Avatar
    Join Date: Aug 2014
    Posts: 1,533
    Rep Power: 1557
    JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000)
    JPG13 is offline
    Originally Posted by Jayarbie View Post
    I don't know what the right number is for either the UK or the US, but I am definitely coming around to the belief that a chitload of people have already had this, way more than the Imperial College model anticipated when it basically assumed that no one had any immunity. I'm now up to 5 people that I know who all had a really bad sickness with the exact Covid-19 symptoms in January or February, including one who was hospitalized in the ICU for a week because of breathing problems. Two of the five tested negative for the flu and none were ever tested for coronavirus at all because it wasn't a thing then. I'm sure that there were a bunch of people who died in that timeframe with a listed cause of death of "pneumonia" or just natural causes that were likely actually from the disease as well.

    I think initially, there was a very big fear of the unknown. So we took precautionary measures to prepare for that worst case scenario. Thankfully, that wasn't the case at all. Time to pivot with the virus and start opening up the restrictions soon
    Mod Neg Crew
    Green to red Crew
    Red to Green Crew
    Reply With Quote

  7. #7
    Registered User sfgiants13's Avatar
    Join Date: Feb 2003
    Location: Seattle, Washington, United States
    Posts: 2,513
    Rep Power: 7027
    sfgiants13 is a name known to all. (+5000) sfgiants13 is a name known to all. (+5000) sfgiants13 is a name known to all. (+5000) sfgiants13 is a name known to all. (+5000) sfgiants13 is a name known to all. (+5000) sfgiants13 is a name known to all. (+5000) sfgiants13 is a name known to all. (+5000) sfgiants13 is a name known to all. (+5000) sfgiants13 is a name known to all. (+5000) sfgiants13 is a name known to all. (+5000) sfgiants13 is a name known to all. (+5000)
    sfgiants13 is offline
    Originally Posted by JPG13 View Post
    Hell, even Cuomo is talking about partially opening up the NY economy soon...


    https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/gov-cu...state-economy/
    Funny how he says"Shut all the doors, border all the windows." Yet one of the dems main points is open borders. Weird.
    Reply With Quote

  8. #8
    I used to weigh 300lbs. Former300lber's Avatar
    Join Date: Feb 2013
    Posts: 6,228
    Rep Power: 16002
    Former300lber is a splendid one to behold. (+10000) Former300lber is a splendid one to behold. (+10000) Former300lber is a splendid one to behold. (+10000) Former300lber is a splendid one to behold. (+10000) Former300lber is a splendid one to behold. (+10000) Former300lber is a splendid one to behold. (+10000) Former300lber is a splendid one to behold. (+10000) Former300lber is a splendid one to behold. (+10000) Former300lber is a splendid one to behold. (+10000) Former300lber is a splendid one to behold. (+10000) Former300lber is a splendid one to behold. (+10000)
    Former300lber is offline
    Originally Posted by Jayarbie View Post
    I don't know what the right number is for either the UK or the US, but I am definitely coming around to the belief that a chitload of people have already had this, way more than the Imperial College model anticipated when it basically assumed that no one had any immunity. I'm now up to 5 people that I know who all had a really bad sickness with the exact Covid-19 symptoms in January or February, including one who was hospitalized in the ICU for a week because of breathing problems. Two of the five tested negative for the flu and none were ever tested for coronavirus at all because it wasn't a thing then. I'm sure that there were a bunch of people who died in that timeframe with a listed cause of death of "pneumonia" or just natural causes that were likely actually from the disease as well.

    I had this exact conversation with a few people already.

    Back in January, me, my girlfriend and a lot of close friends got very sick fairly sudden, and it disappeared within a few days, we just presumed it was a flu that we gave eachother.

    It makes me wonder if it was the Virus, because it sure as hell has been in North America for alot longer then they say, outbreaks started in November, people still traveled to and from China, I would bet a years salary that the virus has been in North America as early as December.
    "The reason why we struggle with insecurity is because we compare our behind the scenes with everyone else's highlight reel."

    B: 320lbs
    S: 425lbs
    D: 545lbs
    Reply With Quote

  9. #9
    Registered User Jimbo0731's Avatar
    Join Date: Mar 2014
    Location: Canada
    Age: 34
    Posts: 1,598
    Rep Power: 3441
    Jimbo0731 is a glorious beacon of knowledge. (+2500) Jimbo0731 is a glorious beacon of knowledge. (+2500) Jimbo0731 is a glorious beacon of knowledge. (+2500) Jimbo0731 is a glorious beacon of knowledge. (+2500) Jimbo0731 is a glorious beacon of knowledge. (+2500) Jimbo0731 is a glorious beacon of knowledge. (+2500) Jimbo0731 is a glorious beacon of knowledge. (+2500) Jimbo0731 is a glorious beacon of knowledge. (+2500) Jimbo0731 is a glorious beacon of knowledge. (+2500) Jimbo0731 is a glorious beacon of knowledge. (+2500) Jimbo0731 is a glorious beacon of knowledge. (+2500)
    Jimbo0731 is offline
    Myself and a Coworker got rekt in January from a flu. Worst flu I've ever had in my life, beginning to wonder if it was the Corona. Either way, I would love if everything went back to normal soon. Working from home is ass.
    Reply With Quote

  10. #10
    It's over for you aleeboy's Avatar
    Join Date: Dec 2008
    Posts: 14,610
    Rep Power: 59914
    aleeboy has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) aleeboy has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) aleeboy has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) aleeboy has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) aleeboy has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) aleeboy has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) aleeboy has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) aleeboy has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) aleeboy has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) aleeboy has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) aleeboy has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000)
    aleeboy is online now
    I've said it before that 20,000 looks about right. It is conservative, so am expecting less.
    Reply With Quote

  11. #11
    Premium User Slayermanlet's Avatar
    Join Date: May 2017
    Posts: 3,336
    Rep Power: 26862
    Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000)
    Slayermanlet is online now
    Originally Posted by JPG13 View Post
    I think initially, there was a very big fear of the unknown. So we took precautionary measures to prepare for that worst case scenario. Thankfully, that wasn't the case at all. Time to pivot with the virus and start opening up the restrictions soon
    This is not known at all at this point - all these studies are just guestimates without mass testing......
    There is more wisdom in your body than in your deepest philosophy

    *~UK Brah~*
    Reply With Quote

  12. #12
    Can't stand ya Costanza! JPG13's Avatar
    Join Date: Aug 2014
    Posts: 1,533
    Rep Power: 1557
    JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000)
    JPG13 is offline
    Originally Posted by Slayermanlet View Post
    This is not known at all at this point - all these studies are just guestimates without mass testing......
    True. But they are better than the prior guestimates with NO testing
    Mod Neg Crew
    Green to red Crew
    Red to Green Crew
    Reply With Quote

  13. #13
    Premium User Slayermanlet's Avatar
    Join Date: May 2017
    Posts: 3,336
    Rep Power: 26862
    Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Slayermanlet has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000)
    Slayermanlet is online now
    Originally Posted by JPG13 View Post
    True. But they are better than the prior guestimates with NO testing
    True, the more testing the better the picture.
    There is more wisdom in your body than in your deepest philosophy

    *~UK Brah~*
    Reply With Quote

  14. #14
    Registered User yewotm8's Avatar
    Join Date: Sep 2017
    Age: 50
    Posts: 1,292
    Rep Power: 573
    yewotm8 is a jewel in the rough. (+500) yewotm8 is a jewel in the rough. (+500) yewotm8 is a jewel in the rough. (+500) yewotm8 is a jewel in the rough. (+500) yewotm8 is a jewel in the rough. (+500) yewotm8 is a jewel in the rough. (+500) yewotm8 is a jewel in the rough. (+500) yewotm8 is a jewel in the rough. (+500) yewotm8 is a jewel in the rough. (+500) yewotm8 is a jewel in the rough. (+500) yewotm8 is a jewel in the rough. (+500)
    yewotm8 is offline
    Wonder if "climate scientists" will start redacting predictions on global temperatures soon as well.
    Reply With Quote

  15. #15
    i need a tan mp83's Avatar
    Join Date: Dec 2011
    Location: Wisconsin, United States
    Posts: 8,114
    Rep Power: 56374
    mp83 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) mp83 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) mp83 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) mp83 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) mp83 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) mp83 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) mp83 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) mp83 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) mp83 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) mp83 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) mp83 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000)
    mp83 is offline
    I had a nasty flu around Christmas. All the symptoms of the virus. I wonder if I had it already
    Green Bay Packers-Milwaukee Brewers
    Muay Thai Crew / Investing / Finance Crew / {Misc Fisherman Crew}

    Torn labrum 10/13: recovered mostly
    Reply With Quote

  16. #16
    Boomer Remover-19 VinnyPazRules's Avatar
    Join Date: Jul 2009
    Posts: 8,903
    Rep Power: 23042
    VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000)
    VinnyPazRules is offline
    Originally Posted by JPG13 View Post
    to less than 20K. Keep in mind his initial estimations were spread like wildfire by the media last week....

    https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/sta...33211011690499


    https://www.newscientist.com/article...pert-predicts/
    I would expect the estimates to go down with so much of the world in lockdown. So what? Worst case scenario models are based on people doing nothing.

    Also the media reported his initial estimations because that's their job? Those were his estimations but here you are implying they did something wrong by reporting them?

    What's your agenda? Just spit it out?
    Reply With Quote

  17. #17
    Boomer Remover-19 VinnyPazRules's Avatar
    Join Date: Jul 2009
    Posts: 8,903
    Rep Power: 23042
    VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) VinnyPazRules has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000)
    VinnyPazRules is offline
    Originally Posted by aleeboy View Post
    I've said it before that 20,000 looks about right. It is conservative, so am expecting less.
    Good to know, Where did you get your epidemiology degree?
    Reply With Quote

  18. #18
    Worst body on the misc jesusxchrist's Avatar
    Join Date: Oct 2015
    Location: San Antonio, Texas, United States
    Age: 24
    Posts: 13,711
    Rep Power: 135944
    jesusxchrist has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) jesusxchrist has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) jesusxchrist has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) jesusxchrist has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) jesusxchrist has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) jesusxchrist has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) jesusxchrist has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) jesusxchrist has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) jesusxchrist has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) jesusxchrist has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) jesusxchrist has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000)
    jesusxchrist is offline
    Originally Posted by mp83 View Post
    I had a nasty flu around Christmas. All the symptoms of the virus. I wonder if I had it already
    So did I, and a ton of other miscers, and a lot of people on my social media. This thing has been going around for awhile and I’m sure a lot of us have had the rona already
    � Formerly morbidly obese to somewhat fit crew

    Follow @animusxlives on Instagram if you like sh*tty music and wanna support it
    Reply With Quote

  19. #19
    Registered User Anachron's Avatar
    Join Date: Aug 2015
    Age: 40
    Posts: 13,956
    Rep Power: 119478
    Anachron has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Anachron has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Anachron has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Anachron has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Anachron has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Anachron has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Anachron has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Anachron has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Anachron has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Anachron has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Anachron has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000)
    Anachron is online now
    Originally Posted by VinnyPazRules View Post
    Good to know, Where did you get your epidemiology degree?
    Now, now, he has a kind heart.
    Reply With Quote

  20. #20
    Trolling the trolls...... dabbmw2002's Avatar
    Join Date: Jan 2007
    Location: Maryland, United States
    Posts: 27,284
    Rep Power: 177993
    dabbmw2002 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) dabbmw2002 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) dabbmw2002 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) dabbmw2002 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) dabbmw2002 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) dabbmw2002 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) dabbmw2002 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) dabbmw2002 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) dabbmw2002 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) dabbmw2002 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) dabbmw2002 has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000)
    dabbmw2002 is online now
    Originally Posted by Jayarbie View Post
    I don't know what the right number is for either the UK or the US, but I am definitely coming around to the belief that a chitload of people have already had this, way more than the Imperial College model anticipated when it basically assumed that no one had any immunity. I'm now up to 5 people that I know who all had a really bad sickness with the exact Covid-19 symptoms in January or February, including one who was hospitalized in the ICU for a week because of breathing problems. Two of the five tested negative for the flu and none were ever tested for coronavirus at all because it wasn't a thing then. I'm sure that there were a bunch of people who died in that timeframe with a listed cause of death of "pneumonia" or just natural causes that were likely actually from the disease as well.
    Originally Posted by Former300lber View Post
    I had this exact conversation with a few people already.

    Back in January, me, my girlfriend and a lot of close friends got very sick fairly sudden, and it disappeared within a few days, we just presumed it was a flu that we gave eachother.

    It makes me wonder if it was the Virus, because it sure as hell has been in North America for alot longer then they say, outbreaks started in November, people still traveled to and from China, I would bet a years salary that the virus has been in North America as early as December.
    Originally Posted by jesusxchrist View Post
    So did I, and a ton of other miscers, and a lot of people on my social media. This thing has been going around for awhile and I’m sure a lot of us have had the rona already
    These. I had a 3 week dry cough and fatigue in January that was different than a cold but didn't seem like a cold either. I spoke to my father who lives in Northern California, he was on an international Air China flight back in January and told me that an old man with a mask on passed out during the flight. After he got home, he had a low grade fever with a cough that was so bad it almost made him pass out. It took him a few weeks to recover. This chit has been here for MONTHS.
    MAGA
    Reply With Quote

  21. #21
    And Yet Ratfish's Avatar
    Join Date: Jul 2009
    Location: Portland, Oregon, United States
    Posts: 51,183
    Rep Power: 142353
    Ratfish has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Ratfish has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Ratfish has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Ratfish has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Ratfish has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Ratfish has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Ratfish has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Ratfish has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Ratfish has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Ratfish has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Ratfish has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000)
    Ratfish is offline
    Governments can't stop viruses

    Governments are viruses
    GIFs of Peace: https://imgur.com/a/oK3RAor
    Cut of Peace: https://imgur.com/a/Dtmrijh
    Merlin? https://imgur.com/a/AEbYqlw
    Reply With Quote

  22. #22
    insatiable TrinnieBuu's Avatar
    Join Date: May 2017
    Posts: 4,293
    Rep Power: 118985
    TrinnieBuu has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) TrinnieBuu has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) TrinnieBuu has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) TrinnieBuu has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) TrinnieBuu has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) TrinnieBuu has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) TrinnieBuu has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) TrinnieBuu has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) TrinnieBuu has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) TrinnieBuu has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) TrinnieBuu has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000)
    TrinnieBuu is online now
    Here’s the actual new model.

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...26-03-2020.pdf

    I’d recommend people not read media reports on models, instead just glance through the actual report. Every media article has some sort of left vs right agenda these days.

    They have new information (new since the initial report on 16 March 2020), and immediately published a new one with more supported inputs.
    They said she's gone too far this time

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    Reply With Quote

  23. #23
    Duke of New York ANumber1's Avatar
    Join Date: Jul 2013
    Location: New York, United States
    Posts: 14,110
    Rep Power: 96904
    ANumber1 has a brilliant future. Third best rank! (+40000) ANumber1 has a brilliant future. Third best rank! (+40000) ANumber1 has a brilliant future. Third best rank! (+40000) ANumber1 has a brilliant future. Third best rank! (+40000) ANumber1 has a brilliant future. Third best rank! (+40000) ANumber1 has a brilliant future. Third best rank! (+40000) ANumber1 has a brilliant future. Third best rank! (+40000) ANumber1 has a brilliant future. Third best rank! (+40000) ANumber1 has a brilliant future. Third best rank! (+40000) ANumber1 has a brilliant future. Third best rank! (+40000) ANumber1 has a brilliant future. Third best rank! (+40000)
    ANumber1 is offline
    Originally Posted by TrinnieBuu View Post
    I’d recommend people not read media reports on models, instead just glance through the actual report. Every media article has some sort of left vs right agenda these days.

    They have new information (new since the initial report on 16 March 2020), and immediately published a new one with more supported inputs.
    As far as I can tell, the initial model reflected the current situation, which was "doing nothing". They haven't retracted those estimates based on those assumptions, just offered updated estimates based on the latest information and the state of the response. They seem to believe that the UK is now responding adequately so that less than 20k will die.

    He also objects to the Oxford study for the same reasons I do, which is that the assumptions about asymptomatic patients don't seem realistic based on what we've seen playing out in the real world.

    All modeling depends on assumptions and only holds insofar as those assumptions bear out in the real world.
    Last edited by ANumber1; 03-26-2020 at 10:02 AM.
    "I will respond by saying that it is you who is the dumbass." - Wincel, 6/20/19
    Reply With Quote

  24. #24
    Can't stand ya Costanza! JPG13's Avatar
    Join Date: Aug 2014
    Posts: 1,533
    Rep Power: 1557
    JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000) JPG13 is just really nice. (+1000)
    JPG13 is offline
    Originally Posted by VinnyPazRules View Post
    I would expect the estimates to go down with so much of the world in lockdown. So what? Worst case scenario models are based on people doing nothing.

    Also the media reported his initial estimations because that's their job? Those were his estimations but here you are implying they did something wrong by reporting them?

    What's your agenda? Just spit it out?
    Most of, if not all the hysteria here was because of the media's fear pron reporting of the situation. Where is the plaster of this guy's updated opinion that was held in such high regard a week ago? Good news doesn't get clicks.
    Mod Neg Crew
    Green to red Crew
    Red to Green Crew
    Reply With Quote

  25. #25
    Somebody's daughter Retoaded's Avatar
    Join Date: Dec 2011
    Posts: 32,947
    Rep Power: 315589
    Retoaded has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Retoaded has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Retoaded has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Retoaded has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Retoaded has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Retoaded has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Retoaded has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Retoaded has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Retoaded has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Retoaded has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) Retoaded has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000)
    Retoaded is offline
    Originally Posted by Jayarbie View Post
    I don't know what the right number is for either the UK or the US, but I am definitely coming around to the belief that a chitload of people have already had this, way more than the Imperial College model anticipated when it basically assumed that no one had any immunity. I'm now up to 5 people that I know who all had a really bad sickness with the exact Covid-19 symptoms in January or February, including one who was hospitalized in the ICU for a week because of breathing problems. Two of the five tested negative for the flu and none were ever tested for coronavirus at all because it wasn't a thing then. I'm sure that there were a bunch of people who died in that timeframe with a listed cause of death of "pneumonia" or just natural causes that were likely actually from the disease as well.
    Dad is a physician and 100% has been saying this since Day 1. Also, he would add that people have been dying of pneumonia for a long time. We diagnose it due to the symptoms and call it "pneumonia" and go no further than that, but viral pneumonia is obviously caused by an underlying virus. In other words, previous coronavirus strains have been killing old folks with "pneumonia" since the beginning of time. This year though we're calling it "pneumonia complications from coronavirus".
    Stern Crew
    Golf Crew
    531FB Crew
    Peloton Crew
    Reply With Quote

  26. #26
    Rex, eat the salad andrew28's Avatar
    Join Date: Apr 2007
    Location: New York, United States
    Posts: 13,928
    Rep Power: 28056
    andrew28 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) andrew28 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) andrew28 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) andrew28 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) andrew28 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) andrew28 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) andrew28 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) andrew28 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) andrew28 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) andrew28 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) andrew28 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000)
    andrew28 is offline
    I had a horrible cold that felt like the flu I had when I was 12. It lasted a few days and I thought I was gonna die for like one or two of those days. and then it all just went the fuk away so fast. that was in the last few months but I forget when exactly.
    Reply With Quote

  27. #27
    6'3 220 12% LooksMaximus's Avatar
    Join Date: Dec 2019
    Posts: 922
    Rep Power: 27701
    LooksMaximus has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) LooksMaximus has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) LooksMaximus has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) LooksMaximus has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) LooksMaximus has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) LooksMaximus has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) LooksMaximus has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) LooksMaximus has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) LooksMaximus has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) LooksMaximus has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) LooksMaximus has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000)
    LooksMaximus is online now
    Originally Posted by JPG13 View Post
    Most of, if not all the hysteria here was because of the media's fear pron reporting of the situation. Where is the plaster of this guy's updated opinion that was held in such high regard a week ago? Good news doesn't get clicks.
    That was the deal he struck with the establishment. First he's shillin like a villain and that gets plastered all over the media. Then he's allowed to save face by officially changing his prediction to something far more realistic, but that of course will go unnoticed. But if anyone questions him in the future, he can point them in the right direction: "oh but you see one week after the panic I caused I changed my opinion and it was published here, here and here. Not my problem that plebs don't read."

    When backpedaling, he also went on to say that most of the deaths "were likely to be old and seriously ill people who would have died from other conditions before the end of the year." JFL

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020...d-year-anyway/

    Due to limited or even no testing, you have to multiply the number of confirmed cases by 10 and then it turns out that this thing is absolutely no deadlier than the common flu.

    Problem is they're now automatically hospitalizing any old & infirm person with flu symptoms, whereas in the past they'd just send them home where they would either recover or die. Now they're needlessly taking up valuable ICU real estate.
    Rawdog or it doesn't count crew
    Simps are the bane of society crew
    Treat your women like cattle or they'll treat you like cattle crew
    Khabib's wedding photos show you how it's done in a real warrior patriarchy crew
    Reply With Quote

  28. #28
    Registered User Weezy32's Avatar
    Join Date: May 2010
    Age: 33
    Posts: 10,926
    Rep Power: 33045
    Weezy32 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Weezy32 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Weezy32 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Weezy32 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Weezy32 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Weezy32 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Weezy32 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Weezy32 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Weezy32 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Weezy32 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000) Weezy32 has much to be proud of. One of the best! (+20000)
    Weezy32 is online now
    My mom got really sick with flu in January and then i got really sick w flulike symptoms , it was really bad. Prior to that i didnt have a cold for 5 years even when i was around people with colds. I take GSE for immune support and typically i can be around people with cold without getting one so thats why i was still around my mom when she was sick but this time i got it too.
    Atlanta Falcons!!!
    Reply With Quote

  29. #29
    Registered User saltypits's Avatar
    Join Date: Feb 2016
    Age: 46
    Posts: 642
    Rep Power: 1630
    saltypits is just really nice. (+1000) saltypits is just really nice. (+1000) saltypits is just really nice. (+1000) saltypits is just really nice. (+1000) saltypits is just really nice. (+1000) saltypits is just really nice. (+1000) saltypits is just really nice. (+1000) saltypits is just really nice. (+1000) saltypits is just really nice. (+1000) saltypits is just really nice. (+1000) saltypits is just really nice. (+1000)
    saltypits is offline
    Originally Posted by TrinnieBuu View Post
    Here’s the actual new model.

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...26-03-2020.pdf

    I’d recommend people not read media reports on models, instead just glance through the actual report. Every media article has some sort of left vs right agenda these days.

    They have new information (new since the initial report on 16 March 2020), and immediately published a new one with more supported inputs.
    Well gov'ts followed the old model, which is now somewhere between totally and completely wrong, so just saying "there's a new one!" isn't good enough. What egregious errors did they make this time?
    Reply With Quote

  30. #30
    Gen X·er keyboardworkout's Avatar
    Join Date: Jul 2009
    Posts: 15,578
    Rep Power: 136191
    keyboardworkout has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) keyboardworkout has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) keyboardworkout has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) keyboardworkout has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) keyboardworkout has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) keyboardworkout has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) keyboardworkout has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) keyboardworkout has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) keyboardworkout has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) keyboardworkout has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000) keyboardworkout has a reputation beyond repute. Second best rank possible! (+100000)
    keyboardworkout is offline
    I still think by the end of the year we will find these predictions from the first of March to be accurate for the US.

    Attached Images
    ▪█─────█▪ Equipment Crew #53 ▪█─────█▪
    ^^^^^^ 6' 6" and Over Crew^^^^^^
    Caedite eos. Novit enim Dominus qui sunt eius.
    Reply With Quote

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts