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  1. #61
    IDDQD Austanian's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jayarbie View Post
    I don't know what the right number is for either the UK or the US, but I am definitely coming around to the belief that a chitload of people have already had this, way more than the Imperial College model anticipated when it basically assumed that no one had any immunity. I'm now up to 5 people that I know who all had a really bad sickness with the exact Covid-19 symptoms in January or February, including one who was hospitalized in the ICU for a week because of breathing problems. Two of the five tested negative for the flu and none were ever tested for coronavirus at all because it wasn't a thing then. I'm sure that there were a bunch of people who died in that timeframe with a listed cause of death of "pneumonia" or just natural causes that were likely actually from the disease as well.
    The problem with that theory is that the old people weren't dying...

    I had that happen to me in early Feb. Bad respiratory infection that lasted almost 3 weeks. Most my work staff had it.

    My primary office is in an old folks home. We would have had results similar to the Life Care Center in Seattle where all their residents started dropping.
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  2. #62
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    Originally Posted by sfgiants13 View Post
    Funny how he says"Shut all the doors, border all the windows." Yet one of the dems main points is open borders. Weird.
    It's almost like there's a global pandemic going on and the situations are totally different now.

    Weird, right?
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  3. #63
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  4. #64
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    You mean we can stop losing our damn minds now?
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  5. #65
    WOATbrah of peace :) sooby's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by TrinnieBuu View Post
    But it wasn’t/isn’t wrong.

    Old model:

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

    Says if NO actions were taken 500k would die in the U.K. over 18 months.

    Also says if social distancing of population and quarantining whole house hold of suspected cases take place... estimated 6k to 48k fatalities in UK depends on when the measures are taken.


    The measures were taken. New model basically says with current measures 20k fatalities is expected (which is almost the literal middle of 6k to 48k).
    That makes a very large assumption that it was the social distancing measures that were effective, rather than the virus not actually being that serious to begin with. Or that many people have already been infected and that many countries are now reaching a soft-cap on the amount of actual new infections. Certainly social distancing isn't the only variable that changed here. A lot of other models and scientists that have presented a doom and gloom scenario thus far have been wrong as well.

    Despite that, any government would have taken some action regardless so the no actions taken is not really that relevant. I guess the bigger question at the end of it is that did we really need to shut down non-essential businesses rather than just have people self-isolate if they have symptoms, protect elderly/compromised peoples, shut down international travel, etc while younger people still worked but practiced better hygiene, worked from home if they could and be as safe as reasonably possible. How many people that died of CV would have died of the flu regardless if that was what they got infected with. It's a lot of questions.

    If the disease is as infectious as they say it is, is airborne and can live on surfaces, one would think that there would be so many more infections than what is being reported. And some other scientists are also saying that the case reported vastly understates the amount of people that are actually infected. From taking a few case scenarios although not perfect it wouldn't be that unreasonable to surmise that 1-2% of the population is infected. This would mean around 3 million americans are probably infected. And based on what we know about the death rates in countries that have done lots of testing the mortality has been around 0.5-1% on people that have been tested. It just doesn't make sense even if you account for elderly individuals and burdened health care systems why some place like Italy has a mortality rate of 10% while other countries while others are less than a percent. Likely there are just so many more infections than what is being accounted for.
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  6. #66
    insatiable TrinnieBuu's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by sooby View Post
    That makes a very large assumption that it was the social distancing measures that were effective, rather than the virus not actually being that serious to begin with. Or that many people have already been infected and that many countries are now reaching a soft-cap on the amount of actual new infections. Certainly social distancing isn't the only variable that changed here. A lot of other models and scientists that have presented a doom and gloom scenario thus far have been wrong as well.

    Despite that, any government would have taken some action regardless so the no actions taken is not really that relevant. I guess the bigger question at the end of it is that did we really need to shut down non-essential businesses rather than just have people self-isolate if they have symptoms, protect elderly/compromised peoples, shut down international travel, etc while younger people still worked but practiced better hygiene, worked from home if they could and be as safe as reasonably possible. How many people that died of CV would have died of the flu regardless if that was what they got infected with. It's a lot of questions.

    If the disease is as infectious as they say it is, is airborne and can live on surfaces, one would think that there would be so many more infections than what is being reported. And some other scientists are also saying that the case reported vastly understates the amount of people that are actually infected. From taking a few case scenarios although not perfect it wouldn't be that unreasonable to surmise that 1-2% of the population is infected. This would mean around 3 million americans are probably infected. And based on what we know about the death rates in countries that have done lots of testing the mortality has been around 0.5-1% on people that have been tested. It just doesn't make sense even if you account for elderly individuals and burdened health care systems why some place like Italy has a mortality rate of 10% while other countries while others are less than a percent. Likely there are just so many more infections than what is being accounted for.
    I knew that it was incorrect phrasing to say the study is right. I meant the second model never contradicted the first (the premise of the OP that the author conceded he’s wrong, he didn’t). Though I will say the newer model for the measures already taken.. has very good fatality numbers, not at all unreasonable given the trends we’re seeing.

    A lot of these factors won’t be apparent until this whole thing blows over. I stated in some other threads that despite what the media is reporting about rampant asymptomatic cases... no studies have been done to actually confirm that.

    Regarding Italy vs Germany difference in fatalities, interesting thing actually, it almost directly corresponds with the age groups infected. 80% of Germany’s cases are in people under 60. Spain and Italy are both at 60% above 60. Korea’s COVID patients are also younger than Italy and Spain.
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  7. #67
    Aware since 2004 Witrebel's Avatar
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    https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/st...94815200124928

    From the man himself: (Author of the imperial college paper being debated today)

    1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.

    2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.

    3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.

    4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
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