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  1. #31
    Registered User saltypits's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by LooksMaximus View Post
    Problem is they're now automatically hospitalizing any old & infirm person with flu symptoms, whereas in the past they'd just send them home where they would either recover or die. Now they're needlessly taking up valuable ICU real estate.
    This X1000. Gotta justify the crisis and your job.
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  2. #32
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    Originally Posted by keyboardworkout View Post
    I still think by the end of the year we will find these predictions from the first of March to be accurate for the US.

    R0 is probably 3 actually. Combined with a much lower fatality rate than what the "experts" have been spouting, and it's clear that millions (billions?) have already been infected and are now immune.

    Won't even be close to 480K deaths in the USA.
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  3. #33
    Registered User Jayarbie's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by JPG13 View Post
    Most of, if not all the hysteria here was because of the media's fear pron reporting of the situation. Where is the plaster of this guy's updated opinion that was held in such high regard a week ago? Good news doesn't get clicks.
    Do you think the media made all of the governments around the world shut down and cause trillions of dollars of economic loss? That seems far fetched. The media frenzy may be responsible for the fact that there is a toilet paper shortage on 4 continents, but governments wouldn't fall prey to that in such an extreme.
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  4. #34
    insatiable TrinnieBuu's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by ANumber1 View Post
    As far as I can tell, the initial model reflected the current situation, which was "doing nothing". They haven't retracted those estimates based on those assumptions, just offered updated estimates based on the latest information and the state of the response. They seem to believe that the UK is now responding adequately so that less than 20k will die.

    He also objects to the Oxford study for the same reasons I do, which is that the assumptions about asymptomatic patients don't seem realistic based on what we've seen playing out in the real world.

    All modeling depends on assumptions and only holds insofar as those assumptions bear out in the real world.
    Completely agree. People are always critical of the opposition’s articles but they don’t have the same scrutiny for ones they agree with. If you look at the method for both models... they used the most up to date information at the time.

    Idk how people aren’t recognizing that the media is manipulating a lot of information (intentionally or not).

    Initial model: we modeled this over an 18 month period, here’s the fatality for each scenario.

    Leftist media: We have to shut everything down for 18 months per London imperial college or <insert worst case unmitigated fatalities> people will die.

    New model: with current measures taken in most of Europe best case fatality is 80k

    Rightist media: model showed millions of people already have this and only 80k will die.

    Wtf.

    Re: Oxford Model

    I have not found any study that show the extent of asymptomatic cases. The closest one was Iceland testing 1800 people with no symptoms at the time of the test (randomly asked for asymptomatic volunteers), and found 19 positives. If you extrapolate this to their entire population that haven’t been tested you’d find another 3200 cases, which is 4 times the current reported positives.

    Which is not the 10-20x people are citing using this model. And that’s if you can extrapolate that number assuming none of those 19 people show symptoms a day or two after the test.
    Last edited by TrinnieBuu; 03-26-2020 at 10:28 AM.
    They said she's gone too far this time

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  5. #35
    Anti-Circumcision JoshSP1985's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jayarbie View Post
    Do you think the media made all of the governments around the world shut down and cause trillions of dollars of economic loss? That seems far fetched. The media frenzy may be responsible for the fact that there is a toilet paper shortage on 4 continents, but governments wouldn't fall prey to that in such an extreme.
    Elected governments sure as hell will. No one wants to be the guy to under-react. So they all overreact and then if things don't turn out as bad they can say "Good thing we did what we did or it would have been much worse"
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  6. #36
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    Originally Posted by LooksMaximus View Post
    That was the deal he struck with the establishment. First he's shillin like a villain and that gets plastered all over the media. Then he's allowed to save face by officially changing his prediction to something far more realistic, but that of course will go unnoticed. But if anyone questions him in the future, he can point them in the right direction: "oh but you see one week after the panic I caused I changed my opinion and it was published here, here and here. Not my problem that plebs don't read."

    When backpedaling, he also went on to say that most of the deaths "were likely to be old and seriously ill people who would have died from other conditions before the end of the year." JFL

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020...d-year-anyway/

    Due to limited or even no testing, you have to multiply the number of confirmed cases by 10 and then it turns out that this thing is absolutely no deadlier than the common flu.

    Problem is they're now automatically hospitalizing any old & infirm person with flu symptoms, whereas in the past they'd just send them home where they would either recover or die. Now they're needlessly taking up valuable ICU real estate.
    It's definitely still worse than a regular flu. Several of the people that I know who I suspect have had it describe it as the worst illness they've ever had and at its worst, my cousin said she couldn't even get out of bed and walk across the room without being out of breath and feeling like she ran 5 miles. That's not a normal flu.
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  7. #37
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    Seems I've seen more people post about some kind of virus as far back as November and it was dismissed as flu like. I'm sure I went through it in January, had two days where I was just sit on the couch exhausted for no reason right after some random chest pain for a few days(not sharp, just dull like a muscle being sore or sleeping wrong on your side might cause).

    Wife felt beaten down like a week later for a few days as well and my job is flying all over the US so that just makes me more certain I picked it up before it became such an ordeal over here.
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  8. #38
    Truth teller kingmanaverage's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jimbo0731 View Post
    Myself and a Coworker got rekt in January from a flu. Worst flu I've ever had in my life, beginning to wonder if it was the Corona. Either way, I would love if everything went back to normal soon. Working from home is ass.
    Yeah I had a relentless virus which lasted for a week too around January. When I started feeling the initial symptoms I assumed that after taking a day of rest I would feel better but I only got more ill for the first 3-4 days.
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  9. #39
    Registered User Reliance012's Avatar
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    Maybe it’s because UK went on shutdown mode...
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  10. #40
    Unmoggable Ass Pirate Slayermanlet's Avatar
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    Lmao now anyone who had a bad cold or a flu in the last six months thinks they had Covid
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  11. #41
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    Originally Posted by Jayarbie View Post
    It's definitely still worse than a regular flu. Several of the people that I know who I suspect have had it describe it as the worst illness they've ever had and at its worst, my cousin said she couldn't even get out of bed and walk across the room without being out of breath and feeling like she ran 5 miles. That's not a normal flu.
    And she probably would have been [needlessly] hospitalized in the current climate. Instead she just stayed home and recovered. Like everyone else posting ITT about some strange flu-like virus that they've recently experienced.

    I've also been absolutely floored a couple of times in my life by the flu.
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  12. #42
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    Originally Posted by Slayermanlet View Post
    Lmao now anyone who had a bad cold or a flu in the last six months thinks they had Covid
    This. It's dumb.

    I also had the worst sickness I've ever had around February, kept me basically immobilized for 3 days.. but not once did I think I had the virus
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    Originally Posted by Slayermanlet View Post
    Lmao now anyone who had a bad cold or a flu in the last six months thinks they had Covid
    It’s hilarious. Even right now if you get a high fever, cough, etc it’s much more likely to be the flu. CV just isn’t that prevalent, yet.
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  14. #44
    Aware since 2004 Witrebel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by saltypits View Post
    R0 is probably 3 actually.
    Originally Posted by saltypits View Post
    ...it's clear that millions (billions?) have already been infected and are now immune.
    Pick one.


    Originally Posted by Reliance012 View Post
    It’s hilarious. Even right now if you get a high fever, cough, etc it’s much more likely to be the flu. CV just isn’t that prevalent, yet.
    Yep, US average is less than 15 people out of a 100 that get tested end up positive. But yes, every tom dick and harry that had a fever in the past month or two was certain to have been COVID positive.
    We are all gunna make it
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  15. #45
    insatiable TrinnieBuu's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by saltypits View Post
    Well gov'ts followed the old model, which is now somewhere between totally and completely wrong, so just saying "there's a new one!" isn't good enough. What egregious errors did they make this time?
    But it wasn’t/isn’t wrong.

    Old model:

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

    Says if NO actions were taken 500k would die in the U.K. over 18 months.

    Also says if social distancing of population and quarantining whole house hold of suspected cases take place... estimated 6k to 48k fatalities in UK depends on when the measures are taken.


    The measures were taken. New model basically says with current measures 20k fatalities is expected (which is almost the literal middle of 6k to 48k).
    They said she's gone too far this time

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    Registered User Anachron's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by TrinnieBuu View Post
    But it wasn’t/isn’t wrong.

    Old model:

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

    Says if NO actions were taken 500k would die in the U.K. over 18 months.

    Also says if social distancing of population and quarantining whole house hold of suspected cases take place... estimated 6k to 48k fatalities in UK depends on when the measures are taken.


    The measures were taken. New model basically says with current measures 20k fatalities is expected (which is almost the literal middle of 6k to 48k).
    The old model served its purpose and now the new model is serving its purpose.
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    Originally Posted by Kawhilights View Post
    Seems I've seen more people post about some kind of virus as far back as November and it was dismissed as flu like. I'm sure I went through it in January, had two days where I was just sit on the couch exhausted for no reason right after some random chest pain for a few days(not sharp, just dull like a muscle being sore or sleeping wrong on your side might cause).

    Wife felt beaten down like a week later for a few days as well and my job is flying all over the US so that just makes me more certain I picked it up before it became such an ordeal over here.
    That is pretty much exactly what Im going through. Its hard to say if the fatigue is just from not moving around enough. Also got a bit of a runny nose for 4 days now.
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    Originally Posted by lildave View Post
    That is pretty much exactly what Im going through. Its hard to say if the fatigue is just from not moving around enough. Also got a bit of a runny nose for 4 days now.
    Sinus symptoms are generally not associated with Covid.
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    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    Pick one.
    This is where your intuition fails you.

    If R0 is 3, then it stands to reason that many, many, many people got infected. Are we all dropping like flies?
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    Originally Posted by Anachron View Post
    The old model served its purpose and now the new model is serving its purpose.
    Yup. When I read the new one I thought they were doubling down as an “I told you so” to the world. Not sure how media potatoes are interpreting this as back tracking.

    Originally Posted by saltypits View Post
    This is where your intuition fails you.

    If R0 is 3, then it stands to reason that many, many, many people got infected. Are we all dropping like flies?
    The new R0 of 3 is the base for no mitigation. They would then model how that is reduced by social distancing and case isolation.
    They said she's gone too far this time

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    Originally Posted by TrinnieBuu View Post
    I have not found any study that show the extent of asymptomatic cases. The closest one was Iceland testing 1800 people with no symptoms at the time of the test (randomly asked for asymptomatic volunteers), and found 19 positives. If you extrapolate this to their entire population that haven’t been tested you’d find another 3200 cases, which is 4 times the current reported positives.

    Which is not the 10-20x people are citing using this model. And that’s if you can extrapolate that number assuming none of those 19 people show symptoms a day or two after the test.
    This is not the thing to test for.

    The thing to test for is antibodies in healthy people. And that is maybe going to start up this week.
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    Originally Posted by TrinnieBuu View Post
    Yup. When I read the new one I thought they were doubling down as an “I told you so” to the world. Not sure how media potatoes are interpreting this as back tracking.
    Did we need total world shutdown? The answer looks increasingly to be no.

    Do we need targeting quarantining? Absolutely.

    Do you not see the massive distinction between the two?
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    Originally Posted by TrinnieBuu View Post
    The new R0 of 3 is the base for no mitigation. They would then model how that is reduced by social distancing and case isolation.
    It would've been 3 since the start of the pandemic, Italy didn't start quarantine until March 11, Canada didn't until March 14. The US was what? This past weekend?

    Even then, most people didn't take it seriously until this week.
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    Originally Posted by saltypits View Post
    This is where your intuition fails you.

    If R0 is 3, then it stands to reason that many, many, many people got infected. Are we all dropping like flies?
    So to be clear, you are asserting that if the R0 is 3.0, it is fair to model that Billions, with a B, have been infected to date?

    Mind you this is real world modeling, not expontentialism modeling. I.e. Please account for ongoing efforts to suppress the spread in your answer. Wuhan lockdown, contact tracing in new outbreak areas, national lockdowns, regional lockdowns etc. They are contributing factors.
    We are all gunna make it
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    Originally Posted by JPG13 View Post
    to less than 20K. Keep in mind his initial estimations were spread like wildfire by the media last week....

    https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/sta...33211011690499


    https://www.newscientist.com/article...pert-predicts/
    But.. But.. But I was told 100 million infected and a million dead!
    rep GMiscer and RICHSTRONG on sight crew.
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    the media is suspiciously quiet about this

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    Originally Posted by SportCoat View Post
    the media is suspiciously quiet about this

    Once again the media may be fuking themselves.


    Over hype to make it seem way worse than it is and now Trump will be able to take credit for our miraculous recovery (relative to media sensationalism)
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    Originally Posted by SportCoat View Post
    the media is suspiciously quiet about this

    There is no story to sensationalize.
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    Originally Posted by Former300lber View Post
    I had this exact conversation with a few people already.

    Back in January, me, my girlfriend and a lot of close friends got very sick fairly sudden, and it disappeared within a few days, we just presumed it was a flu that we gave eachother.

    It makes me wonder if it was the Virus, because it sure as hell has been in North America for alot longer then they say, outbreaks started in November, people still traveled to and from China, I would bet a years salary that the virus has been in North America as early as December.
    Yep, the virus was actually first confirmed in the US early January. My wife got a flu like illness for about 2 weeks the last half of February that tested negative for the flu. Had a cough, fever, fatigue, all that jazz. Our 6 month old and myself also got it but it was very mild for us.

    It's not very dangerous unless you have health problems already.
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    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    Yep, the virus was actually first confirmed in the US early January. My wife got a flu like illness for about 2 weeks the last half of February that tested negative for the flu. Had a cough, fever, fatigue, all that jazz. Our 6 month old and myself also got it but it was very mild for us.

    It's not very dangerous unless you have health problems already.
    To be fair there are viruses that rotate every year that aren't the flu or covid-19 but it's possible.
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