5 doctors dying within weeks is highly unusual. Ask anyone who has been in healthcare for a few years about how many doctors they've seen die from a disease transmitted through patients in all those years, or look up data. And this is AFTER all PPE and precautions.
But who was common sense
Some miscers believe that you are invincible if you're young
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm
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Thread: Actual death rate is likely .06%
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03-26-2020, 12:10 PM #121
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03-26-2020, 12:20 PM #122
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03-26-2020, 12:29 PM #123
This x1000
Fitness is my area of expertise and now it's so obvious that 90% of so called fitness experts are full of chit and have no clue what they're talking about. Celebrity trainers for example, everyone would assume they are the epitome of fitness knowledge and expertise but they're actually the biggest piles of chit imaginable. So I can only imagine the same thing happens in every other field including medicine.500lb Squat
375lb Bench
675lb Deadlift
201lbs Bodyweight
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03-26-2020, 12:31 PM #124
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03-26-2020, 12:32 PM #125
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03-26-2020, 12:35 PM #126
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03-26-2020, 12:40 PM #127
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03-26-2020, 12:43 PM #128
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03-26-2020, 12:58 PM #129
- Join Date: Jan 2011
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Although the majority of reported COVID-19 cases in China were mild (81%), approximately 80% of deaths occurred among adults aged ≥60 years; only one (0.1%) death occurred in a person aged ≤19 years
So doesn't say what % of the 19% resulted in death, maybe half? so 10% of known cases result in death. of the 10%; 20% were in the largest age group of 20-64. so 2% of known cases are 20-64 who are known to have tested positive end up dead.
This doesn't take into account those who already had health issues in that bracket though, so what's the % of healthy people?
Also it's assumed many in that age bracket have been infected, and never were tested because of mild symptoms, so the odds go down even more, and if you have no pre-existing conditions they go down even more. Hence how you get to a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of 20-64 year olds who actually are dying from this.
Is this more serious than normal seasonal flu? Yes.
Do all healthy 20-64 year olds need to be locked down? Not at all.
Should everyone take extra precautions avoiding and sterilizing around those with compromised health and elderly people? Yes.
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03-26-2020, 01:15 PM #130
That. Discussing the case fatality rate with this virus should always include discussion of age ranges. For those under 50, the fatality rate is probably about the same as seasonal flu - especially for those under 40. For those over 50 it goes up higher than seasonal flu and the older you get the higher above flu it gets. This is much more dangerous and deadly than flu for those over 70 and especially those over 80. That increase for old age groups skews the overall fatality to something higher than the seasonal flu(~0.1% overall CFR) so that the over CFR of COVID-19 in the end result is gonna be about 0.5-0.8% depending on a lot of factors. If the health care system gets overwhelmed then the CFR goes up as more older people get inadequate care and die compared to the care they would get in a non-overwhelmed health care environment. Everywhere the health care system has been overwhelmed with critical, such as Wuhan, Iran, Italy, and Spain, the CFR is a little higher to due overwhelmed health care capabilities and more people dying because of it.
Currently we probably have a hundred to few hundred thousand COVID-19 infections in the US or about 1 in ~2,000 people, which goes well with the 0.5-0.8% overall fatality rate given that we are just above 1,100 total deaths.
1100/200,000x100 = 0.55%
1100/150,000x100 = 0.73%
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03-26-2020, 01:25 PM #131
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03-26-2020, 04:19 PM #132
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03-26-2020, 05:37 PM #133
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03-26-2020, 05:38 PM #134
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03-26-2020, 05:43 PM #135
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03-26-2020, 05:59 PM #136
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03-26-2020, 06:26 PM #137
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03-26-2020, 06:30 PM #138
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03-26-2020, 06:30 PM #139
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03-26-2020, 06:43 PM #140
Ultimately it'll go down as a social experiment to see how influenced people are by media.
Little push here and a nudge there and one day people are legit quarantining themselves from the world cause the TV said so.
When I was selling phones I came to the realization my job was just to push the people who were on the fence about getting a phone.
Some come in wanting a phone, some don't, and then the rest were impressionable and looking for direction.
It's the same with the public hysteria.
You have skeptics, believers, and those that can be swayed.
What I'm worried about is how many can be swayed, because you add those with believers and you're talking an overwhelmingly large force of irrationality.The billionaire and the beggar both have 24 hours in a day.
That's why grandma's apple pie rocks and yours sucks.
[QUOTE=Dave22reborn]At least it will thunderstorm tonight, and we know how they feel about water. :)[/QUOTE]
^^^Racist police officer who also cries about how racism doesn't exist, also cries reverse racism and typifies the stupidity of the racist right, referring to black people as "they" and regurgitating racist stereotypes.
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03-26-2020, 07:53 PM #141
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03-26-2020, 07:56 PM #142
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03-26-2020, 08:06 PM #143
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03-26-2020, 08:14 PM #144
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03-26-2020, 08:52 PM #145
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03-26-2020, 09:03 PM #146
So most likely the actual death rate is 0.06% (6 in 10 000) based on the only sample we have of an entire population group being tested. The death rate of the regular flu is 10 in 10 000. And of this 0.06% who die, 90% of them are over 70, and 80% of them have 2 or more chronic diseases. Less than 1% of them were normal, healthy people.
1% of 0.06% = 6 in 1 000 000
So if the average miscer catches it, your chance of dieing is less than 1 in 100,000.
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03-26-2020, 09:12 PM #147
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03-26-2020, 09:25 PM #148
People are actually this dumb. When you surround yourself with the intelligent members of society for too long, you start to forget what "average" human intelligence actually means.
It's also unfortunate that our public school system is so heterogenous in its efficacy.أشهد أن لا إله إلاَّ الله و أشهد أن محمد رسول الله
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03-26-2020, 09:33 PM #149
34,200 deaths and almost half a million hospitalizations in the 2018-2019 flu season. Corona's got a long fookin way to go. Let's hope Americans don't start cooking and inflating the numbers like the Italians have been doing. I want this to be a fair fight.
CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1).
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03-26-2020, 10:28 PM #150
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