“First, the test used to identify cases doesn’t catch people who were infected and recovered. Second, testing rates were woefully low for a long time and typically reserved for the severely ill. Together, these facts imply that the confirmed cases are likely orders of magnitude less than the true number of infections,” it reads.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...mortality-rate
Let that sink in.
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Thread: Actual death rate is likely .06%
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03-25-2020, 08:03 PM #1
Actual death rate is likely .06%
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03-25-2020, 08:51 PM #2
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03-25-2020, 08:55 PM #3
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03-25-2020, 09:08 PM #4
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They don't say it's likely, they say it "could be closer to 0.06%". IMO you need to assume the actual fatality rate will be 1% or below, but this virus could hit 2/3rds of the entire human population. When you're talking 4-5billion or more people, even 1% is 40-50million deaths
Whether its worth the economic turmoil, guess time will tell
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03-25-2020, 09:11 PM #5
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03-25-2020, 09:12 PM #6
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03-25-2020, 09:12 PM #7
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03-25-2020, 09:27 PM #8
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03-25-2020, 09:32 PM #9
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I'm less concerned about the death rate, which would be: the amount of deaths/total infected (accurate infected count, not necessarily the piss poor numbers we've actually recorded).
What is a larger issue is this: why the **** do we have almost triple the deaths compared to recoveries? You get me the answer on that one, and I'll be impressed. Until then, we oughta treat this **** with the upmost caution.
Anyone that says otherwise is a loon.
EDIT: the obvious answer is that there are many infected who recover without even knowing they had it, but why are we losing so many who seek hospice help?
This is a wild anecdote in NY city: recovered: 0; dead: 280. Good luck out there boyos.
Last edited by FinBra; 03-25-2020 at 09:38 PM.
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03-25-2020, 09:39 PM #10
because those are the people who have been given the test and almost every country they are only testing people with severe respiratory distress and showing full blown symptoms which is the worse of the worse cases, the recovered rates do not include those who are a symptomatic or just told to stay home self quarantine and only seek emergency services if basically you can’t breath or super high risk like copd/cancer
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03-25-2020, 09:45 PM #11
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03-25-2020, 09:46 PM #12
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03-25-2020, 09:50 PM #13
There’s already a thread about this.
Cliffs:
It’s an opinion piece. They should try to publish their model if they want anyone to take it seriously.
There are already studies, at least four that I’m aware of, which assessed percent asymptotic in a much more direct way (literally testing a sample of a population). Values ranged from 17-85%, and 3 of the studies had overlapping CV.
Like I said before, if you’re interested, you have the internet at your hands. Go to google scholar/pub med and type in some key words. I bet by now there are at least a dozen papers on this topic.
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03-25-2020, 09:51 PM #14
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03-25-2020, 09:53 PM #15
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03-25-2020, 09:56 PM #16
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- there aren't enough tests out there to test whether somebody is recovered. tests are better used to test if somebody is positive
- places like SK you have to test 3 times negative before you are actually recovered
- you know somebody is dead instantly, there is likely a 3 week lag time on determining whether somebody is recovered, perhaps longer, you will see a lot more recovery outcomes in a few weeks, think i read somewhere the virus can linger for 5 weeks
- plenty are asymptomatic and likely have recovered without people knowing it
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03-25-2020, 09:58 PM #17
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03-25-2020, 09:59 PM #18
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03-25-2020, 10:01 PM #19
The death rate in China is 4%, unless they are intentionally covering mild cases up to boost the death rate. They are doing a chit ton of testing and not finding any positives anymore other than outsiders.
In South Korea, the death rate is 1.3% and growing each day. They are doing testing and not finding much else either.
I would say the death rate is AT LEAST 1%.
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03-25-2020, 10:02 PM #20
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and how many thousands of people are asymptomatic and literally feel nothing despite having the virus inside them? recovered simply means they tested negative for the virus after previously testing positive. people can still get better in critical condition and still wouldn't be classified as recovered because they still have some of the virus in their system and it could still potentially spread.
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03-25-2020, 10:03 PM #21
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03-25-2020, 10:07 PM #22
That's every disease retard. If you're going to die from it it's going to kill you quickly. To be checked off as "recovered" you have to sit around for 3 weeks waiting for 2 separate tests to come back saying you have zero traces of the virus left. It's not like you're sitting in a hospital bed fighting for your life for weeks, you're at home watching netflix battling an annoying cough.
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03-25-2020, 10:07 PM #23
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03-25-2020, 10:08 PM #24
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03-25-2020, 10:11 PM #25
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We wouldn't know - we don't have enough tests to know.
And you know this how? Are you versed with how hospitals are defining recovered?
so how does this explain away that we've lost 280 and yet still none have 'recovered' by your definition. It still defaults back to 'the virus kills faster than typical people can recover'
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03-25-2020, 10:12 PM #26
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03-25-2020, 10:13 PM #27
When this first started getting attention in January and I saw the videos coming out of China and basically no one was following it I thought it was the apocalypse.
When it was known in February but not widely reported in the MSM I started getting paranoid.
When the MSM media went into overdrive panic mode in early March I knew there was fukery about.
If I get into April and this whole thing turns out to be "just a flu" a phrase I mocked for 3 months then heads need to fuking roll. We are being played.
So far I have been about a month ahead of the "herd". I have a feeling I am about to be really pissed
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03-25-2020, 10:16 PM #28
I 100% believe there have been 100's of thousands, if not millions, of cases around the world that have gone unreported because the symptoms were so mild. China lies about everything and odds are this coronavirus chit has been going around since before they decided to let the world know.
I travel roughly 3 weeks out of a month and have a bad habit of not washing my hands before eating due to working in construction as a youngster. Back in Jan had a few rough days, wife showed the same like a week later. Pretty confident that we've been through it.Lurking since '05 - the days of VS gorilla/cloud/goku threads
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03-25-2020, 10:17 PM #29
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03-25-2020, 10:18 PM #30
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