Look at the fuking curve

[ScottTil]

update to the curve.
Spoiler alert: OP was wrong

[Witrebel]

Yeah, exactly? That's what I've been arguing.

And by correlate, if you mean they've both been moving up, then yeah, it's that loose of a correlation.

I disagree with the strong correlation but I will actually check it for myself instead of visually.

they do correlate.

This.

Here is US Positive cases on the left, US Deaths on the right. Trend lines with equations super imposed.

[AltarOfPlagues]

Yeah, exactly? That's what I've been arguing.

And by correlate, if you mean they've both been moving up, then yeah, it's that loose of a correlation.

I disagree with the strong correlation but I will actually check it for myself instead of visually.

its hard bc the chit is "squished" by inverse of cfr (90%+)

[acrawlingchaos]

No, but I can tell you the virus is still in its infancy in this country. It's only gotten relevant in NY. It can't possibly be close to saturation. There are so many other states to explode in. I know ur 100% wrong, but I will humor you and watch with you. Bold statements. Let's see how they play out. I bet you they just didn't update the stat lmao. Let's just see what happens. One of us will be proven right today/tomorrow.

100% wrong huh? And you're a math guy?

[ImpressiveGainz]

What's amazing to me is that anyone thinks modeling something is the same as actual results. Induction is very useful, but until this is over we're not going to know the real numbers.

[rectifryer]

This.

Here is US Positive cases on the left, US Deaths on the right. Trend lines with equations super imposed.

Good job, then our testing is sound regardless of the 50% false positive rate.

[wincel]

100% wrong huh? And you're a math guy?

Math is for idiots. Nobody needs to know what 17 x 6 is. When will that come up irl? I bet I could be president and not need to know that.

[AltarOfPlagues]

What's amazing to me is that anyone thinks modeling something is the same as actual results. Induction is very useful, but until this is over we're not going to know the real numbers.

even the models "say this". this is the nature of fat tailed distributions. little changes make the model go apeshiit.

the models are fun to talk about but they have limited utility.

[wincel]

even the models "say this". this is the nature of fat tailed distributions. little changes make the model go apeshiit.

the models are fun to talk about but they have limited utility.

Thing is...we shouldn't need complex models to understand the trend of how the early stages of a virus' population grows...it is patently obvious how

the models and stats are needed for detailed estimates...it's clear how the trend will be

[ImpressiveGainz]

even the models "say this". this is the nature of fat tailed distributions. little changes make the model go apeshiit.

the models are fun to talk about but they have limited utility.

Sure, that's my point. You have to model stuff like this to make plans, just like you watch a lot of game film before you play football. But when you step on the field, that **** goes right out the window. Gotta be willing to throw out your model and make a new one on-the-fly to accommodate new information. Anyone strictly adhering to a single model and passing it off as fact is a goddamn moron.

[acrawlingchaos]

Math is for idiots. Nobody needs to know what 17 x 6 is. When will that come up irl? I bet I could be president and not need to know that.

100%.... and your a math guy? You have this all figured out 100%. You have definitive proof and a model. Right?

You make a lot of absolutes in an equation with a lot of variables.... for a math guy.

[wincel]

100%.... and your a math guy? You have this all figured out 100%. You have definitive proof and a model. Right?

You make a lot of absolutes in an equation with a lot of variables.... for a math guy.

Fine not 100%. Just a guess.


A guess that will be 100% what happens because that's how viruses work.

[AltarOfPlagues]

wincel is a smart as fuk in math and stats but he's an extremely emotional guy

[Johnez]

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32133832/

The test for it has a 50% false positive rate

Can someone smart translate this chit. From what I gather there's a higher chance there's a "false positive" for people with close contact with someone infected. Umm.... It sounds like what they're saying is the closer in proximity you were to someone infected, the more likely you will test false positive. Am I reading this right?

[Lefticle]

wincel is a smart as fuk in math and stats but he's an extremely emotional guy

Not really. He continues to prove he is dumb as a rock on a daily basis.

[acrawlingchaos]

Fine not 100%. Just a guess.


A guess that will be 100% what happens because that's how viruses work.

A guess huh?

wincel is a smart as fuk in math and stats but he's an extremely emotional guy

The more emotional he gets, the less accurate his numbers.

[wincel]

Can someone smart translate this chit. From what I gather there's a higher chance there's a "false positive" for people with close contact with someone infected. Umm.... It sounds like what they're saying is the closer in proximity you were to someone infected, the more likely you will test false positive. Am I reading this right?

ya they are saying it is very likely that half or more of those in contact with an infected who tested positive are in fact false positives

[rectifryer]

wincel is a smart as fuk in math and stats but he's an extremely emotional guy

There are basic concepts in math that he doesn't communicate and he's not projecting the spread to peak in a short amount of time....

I agree about the models. I'd rather compare to what happened in other areas as previously mentioned.

[ImpressiveGainz]

Not really. He continues to prove he is dumb as a rock on a daily basis.

I am sure he can actually do math, but his total inability to interpret the results into something that remotely resembles reality is unfortunate.

[AltarOfPlagues]

Thing is...we shouldn't need complex models to understand the trend of how the early stages of a virus' population grows...it is patently obvious how

the models and stats are needed for detailed estimates...it's clear how the trend will be

can u redeem yourself and talk about lotka volterra oscillations and reasoning behind "herd immunity" with respect to infection oscillations over a multi-year span?

[wincel]

A guess huh?

The more emotional he gets, the less accurate his numbers.

It is just a guess. I have zero knowledge of the accuracy of their testing. I have zero understanding of what statistical assumptions have been made for sampling and reporting the number of infected and the deaths. I have zero understanding of the future. There are many variables that may change. The tests could be biased. We may develop medicines in the future. All the viral particles might quantum tunnel to the moon. IDK anything.

But...

it's 100% gonna keep growing bruh because it's a fuking virus and it's still early stages bruh

[proteinsnake]

Hows it possible to have 4% in critical condition but 15% deaths?

[pengh]

imagine how many people are having sex 2-3 times a day during quarantine while you get a semi looking at the curve you do not understand

Mirrin having sex rn (srs)

[wincel]

can u redeem yourself and talk about lotka volterra oscillations and reasoning behind "herd immunity" with respect to infection oscillations over a multi-year span?

Yeah...over long periods, the virus could be well modeled as a predator. The predator's effective population and/or carrying capacity ifu wish to model that depends on the prey population and vice versa. So, we could modify a Lotka Volterra system to describe the long term behavior of viral population in an idealized system. In practice the prey population depends on many more factors, so the behavior will not be obviously oscillatory in the same simple sense of Lotka Volterra. Human population depends on so many other things than just this one predator, so Lotka Volterra, while an illustrative tool, wouldn't be very accurate here. You'd need some more complicated models to really understand the long term viral population. You'd need good estimates of the human population, and perhaps many of the other predators of humans as well. You'd also need estimates of carrying capacities so these would be competitove Lotka Volterra whose solutions can get quite messy, especially when there is some external forcing of human population due to technology etc.

[Lefticle]

It is just a guess. I have zero knowledge of the accuracy of their testing. I have zero understanding of what statistical assumptions have been made for sampling and reporting the number of infected and the deaths. I have zero understanding of the future. There are many variables that may change. The tests could be biased. We may develop medicines in the future. All the viral particles might quantum tunnel to the moon. IDK anything.

But...

it's 100% gonna keep growing bruh because it's a fuking virus and it's still early stages bruh

[wincel]

de nile ain't just a river in egypt bruh

[wincel]

Hows it possible to have 4% in critical condition but 15% deaths?

15% of those they knew to be resolved cases were deaths. Those in critical condition are unresolved cases. New patients come in and are mild at first. More new patients are coming in each day so the proportion of critical to total new patients is going to be low.

[jeshelton]

Hows it possible to have 4% in critical condition but 15% deaths?

Because BOOM coronavirus instant death.

[proteinsnake]

15% of those they knew to be resolved cases were deaths. Those in critical condition are unresolved cases. New patients come in and are mild at first. More new patients are coming in each day so the proportion of critical to total new patients is going to be low.

That actually makes sense

[Cass40]

Cliffs?