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  1. #121
    Registered User acrawlingchaos's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    Fine not 100%. Just a guess.


    A guess that will be 100% what happens because that's how viruses work.
    A guess huh?

    Originally Posted by AltarOfPlagues View Post
    wincel is a smart as fuk in math and stats but he's an extremely emotional guy
    The more emotional he gets, the less accurate his numbers.
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  2. #122
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    Originally Posted by Johnez View Post
    Can someone smart translate this chit. From what I gather there's a higher chance there's a "false positive" for people with close contact with someone infected. Umm.... It sounds like what they're saying is the closer in proximity you were to someone infected, the more likely you will test false positive. Am I reading this right?
    ya they are saying it is very likely that half or more of those in contact with an infected who tested positive are in fact false positives
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  3. #123
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    Originally Posted by AltarOfPlagues View Post
    wincel is a smart as fuk in math and stats but he's an extremely emotional guy
    There are basic concepts in math that he doesn't communicate and he's not projecting the spread to peak in a short amount of time....

    I agree about the models. I'd rather compare to what happened in other areas as previously mentioned.
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  4. #124
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    Originally Posted by Lefticle View Post
    Not really. He continues to prove he is dumb as a rock on a daily basis.
    I am sure he can actually do math, but his total inability to interpret the results into something that remotely resembles reality is unfortunate.
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  5. #125
    im gon make some shake AltarOfPlagues's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    Thing is...we shouldn't need complex models to understand the trend of how the early stages of a virus' population grows...it is patently obvious how

    the models and stats are needed for detailed estimates...it's clear how the trend will be
    can u redeem yourself and talk about lotka volterra oscillations and reasoning behind "herd immunity" with respect to infection oscillations over a multi-year span?
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  6. #126
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    Originally Posted by acrawlingchaos View Post
    A guess huh?

    The more emotional he gets, the less accurate his numbers.
    It is just a guess. I have zero knowledge of the accuracy of their testing. I have zero understanding of what statistical assumptions have been made for sampling and reporting the number of infected and the deaths. I have zero understanding of the future. There are many variables that may change. The tests could be biased. We may develop medicines in the future. All the viral particles might quantum tunnel to the moon. IDK anything.

    But...

    it's 100% gonna keep growing bruh because it's a fuking virus and it's still early stages bruh
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  7. #127
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    Hows it possible to have 4% in critical condition but 15% deaths?
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  8. #128
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    Originally Posted by RoxyFoxy22 View Post
    imagine how many people are having sex 2-3 times a day during quarantine while you get a semi looking at the curve you do not understand
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  9. #129
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    Originally Posted by AltarOfPlagues View Post
    can u redeem yourself and talk about lotka volterra oscillations and reasoning behind "herd immunity" with respect to infection oscillations over a multi-year span?
    Yeah...over long periods, the virus could be well modeled as a predator. The predator's effective population and/or carrying capacity ifu wish to model that depends on the prey population and vice versa. So, we could modify a Lotka Volterra system to describe the long term behavior of viral population in an idealized system. In practice the prey population depends on many more factors, so the behavior will not be obviously oscillatory in the same simple sense of Lotka Volterra. Human population depends on so many other things than just this one predator, so Lotka Volterra, while an illustrative tool, wouldn't be very accurate here. You'd need some more complicated models to really understand the long term viral population. You'd need good estimates of the human population, and perhaps many of the other predators of humans as well. You'd also need estimates of carrying capacities so these would be competitove Lotka Volterra whose solutions can get quite messy, especially when there is some external forcing of human population due to technology etc.
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  10. #130
    Haha yeah Lefticle's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    It is just a guess. I have zero knowledge of the accuracy of their testing. I have zero understanding of what statistical assumptions have been made for sampling and reporting the number of infected and the deaths. I have zero understanding of the future. There are many variables that may change. The tests could be biased. We may develop medicines in the future. All the viral particles might quantum tunnel to the moon. IDK anything.

    But...

    it's 100% gonna keep growing bruh because it's a fuking virus and it's still early stages bruh

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  11. #131
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    Originally Posted by Lefticle View Post
    de nile ain't just a river in egypt bruh
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  12. #132
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    Originally Posted by proteinsnake View Post
    Hows it possible to have 4% in critical condition but 15% deaths?
    15% of those they knew to be resolved cases were deaths. Those in critical condition are unresolved cases. New patients come in and are mild at first. More new patients are coming in each day so the proportion of critical to total new patients is going to be low.
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  13. #133
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    Originally Posted by proteinsnake View Post
    Hows it possible to have 4% in critical condition but 15% deaths?
    Because BOOM coronavirus instant death.
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  14. #134
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    15% of those they knew to be resolved cases were deaths. Those in critical condition are unresolved cases. New patients come in and are mild at first. More new patients are coming in each day so the proportion of critical to total new patients is going to be low.
    That actually makes sense
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  15. #135
    Quarantined Finja Cass40's Avatar
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    Cliffs?
    Hello darkness my old friend
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  16. #136
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    Originally Posted by Cass40 View Post
    Cliffs?
    The misc likes curves.
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  17. #137
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    Originally Posted by Cass40 View Post
    Cliffs?
    we fukd
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    You have to consider that there are a lot of people who will get it, and not even know they have it, or will only have mild symptoms. They are only testing those who show the symptoms to the point they are seeking medical help so they are more severe.
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  19. #139
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    Originally Posted by Jasonw1178 View Post
    You have to consider that there are a lot of people who will get it, and not even know they have it, or will only have mild symptoms. They are only testing those who show the symptoms to the point they are seeking medical help so they are more severe.
    I don't see how you guys can look at this curve and deny we are in trouble.
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  20. #140
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    Originally Posted by kcadrenalin View Post
    The misc likes curves.
    HTC approved epidemiology graph
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    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    I don't see how you guys can look at this curve and deny we are in trouble.
    Agreed. People are like "well the real flu infects and kills more per year!!1!"

    The truth is, our medical systems have been adjusted and prepared for the traditional influenza for decades now. We know what to expect during flu season (IE: how many hospitalizations will be required every year).

    If a new flu (Cocid-19) hits the population as well, our medical systems can quickly become overburdened and the trickle down effect ultimately results in a lot more deaths because people can't get treatment for other conditions that they have.

    So yes, if you're under 60 and relatively healthy, you probably won't die from this virus. But there's a crap ton of the population who are over 60, fat, have cancer, have bad asthma etc. Should we just not care about those people? Misc sociopaths would probably say fuk em.
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  22. #142
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    Originally Posted by Phobaphobia View Post
    Agreed. People are like "well the real flu infects and kills more per year!!1!"

    The truth is, our medical systems have been adjusted and prepared for the traditional influenza for decades now. We know what to expect during flu season (IE: how many hospitalizations will be required every year).

    If a new flu (Cocid-19) hits the population as well, our medical systems can quickly become overburdened and the trickle down effect ultimately results in a lot more deaths because people can't get treatment for other conditions that they have.

    So yes, if you're under 60 and relatively healthy, you probably won't die from this virus. But there's a crap ton of the population who are over 60, fat, have cancer, have bad asthma etc. Should we just not care about those people? Misc sociopaths would probably say fuk em.
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