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  1. #1831
    John 3:16 Geneticz's Avatar
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    These job reports are the definition of priced in. The last 2 we ended green and this one the futures started down 1.5% and they are pushing for green again.

    Markets were definitely prepared for worse. This report only shows up to March 12th however so the next one in may will be the real one. That however wont matter if the economy opens up in most places besides the hotspots on april 30th
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  2. #1832
    Registered Abuser chino3's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by dopamine72 View Post

    How about real estate? Thinking that will be one of the last things to take a hit and then one of the last to recover. I've been watching the market slowly dip the last 6 months so I think there might be some good property deals within the next year or less possibly?

    Like you said, RE will be the last to be hit. We won’t see the effects until much further down the road. We will have phases of sell offs:

    Vacation rentals
    Panic/worry selling
    Bankruptcy/foreclosure

    It’s also going to take some time for the mortgage industry to iron things out. What’s going on with them will impact pricing.
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  3. #1833
    Registered User Destor's Avatar
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    Canadian government hasn't directly told the public when we can expect our measures to end, but July seems to be the current assumption if you read between the lines in some related reports and the timelines on various COVID-19 financial support mechanisms they've rolled out
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  4. #1834
    piss-weak HYMENATOR's Avatar
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    I think once infections peak in a country and things are on the downward trend things will open up faster than you would think, especially in localized areas. You can keep travel restrictions in place and most people will be able to go to work and earn a living.
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  5. #1835
    Registered User Destor's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by HYMENATOR View Post
    I think once infections peak in a country and things are on the downward trend things will open up faster than you would think, especially in localized areas. You can keep travel restrictions in place and most people will be able to go to work and earn a living.
    Yeah that's the thing, it won't be entire countries opening up at once. This will happen in pockets as local cases stabilize and officials begin to see the infection rate flattening

    But who knows how it will unfold, there's no precedent for this chit
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  6. #1836
    Registered Abuser chino3's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by HYMENATOR View Post
    I think once infections peak in a country and things are on the downward trend things will open up faster than you would think, especially in localized areas. You can keep travel restrictions in place and most people will be able to go to work and earn a living.
    I’ve mentioned it before, but while I agree we will spring back in an almost race for normalcy, it’s not going to be a quick process to actually get people, who were laid off, back into their positions. Hiring is a tedious process with a lot of moving parts involved.

    People gave a lot of chit to businesses that furloughed or did “zero hour” schedules as if they were trying to circumvent the unemployment benefit process, they will be the companies that will be able to “return to normal” FAR more quickly than others that actually laid people off.
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  7. #1837
    Registered User alobri3's Avatar
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    We going to spring back alight....just not to the standard of normalcy that we know. This is a new world. This event changes a lot of things, a lot of ways we going to do business as well.
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  8. #1838
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    Originally Posted by alobri3 View Post
    We going to spring back alight....just not to the standard of normalcy that we know. This is a new world. This event changes a lot of things, a lot of ways we going to do business as well.
    People keep saying this, but I'm genuinely curious why you think this is the case and how so?. I hear all the time people saying working from home will soon be the norm, airline travel for business will be cut, etc. I think employers will be more open to some WFH arrangements or allowing employees to work from home once or twice a week, but it's so much harder to get stuff done if you're not in the office and/or directly with your team still. That goes double for traveling for client work. I work in consulting and my job would be a nightmare if I couldn't be on-site hounding clients for data and had to solely rely on email to communicate with them.

    As such, my opinion there will be changes, but it's not going to be a brave new world like so many seem to think. People are still people at the end of the day, unless the coronvirus mutated us above Homo Sapiens who hate social interaction all of a sudden.
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  9. #1839
    Registered User cool-beans's Avatar
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    thoughts on AZUL? brazilian airline down from highs of $44 to about $7 and change now.
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  10. #1840
    Registered User alobri3's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by nas_is_illmatic View Post
    People keep saying this, but I'm genuinely curious why you think this is the case and how so?. I hear all the time people saying working from home will soon be the norm, airline travel for business will be cut, etc. I think employers will be more open to some WFH arrangements or allowing employees to work from home once or twice a week, but it's so much harder to get stuff done if you're not in the office and/or directly with your team still. That goes double for traveling for client work. I work in consulting and my job would be a nightmare if I couldn't be on-site hounding clients for data and had to solely rely on email to communicate with them.

    As such, my opinion there will be changes, but it's not going to be a brave new world like so many seem to think. People are still people at the end of the day, unless the coronvirus mutated us above Homo Sapiens who hate social interaction all of a sudden.
    We are a nation of overreaction. Shoe Bomber.

    Working from home was already on the way up, so this just speeds up the trajectory and it absolutely possible to be just as if not more productive. Airline travel will evolve, will probably require certain measures like masks, temp checks etc....will take time, but much like you taking off your shoes now, there will be a few other measures added. It will take some time for full confidence to return. Travel for business will still be there and probably will be the driver for recovery for airlines, but it too will be cut down as virtual meetings gain ground.

    The definition of "new world" is questionable however. I did not mean a complete revamp of everything we do, rather an indefinite change to certain things, social fabric.
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  11. #1841
    piss-weak HYMENATOR's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by J0KERbrah View Post
    That would be pretty stupid though, because then where was the point to quarantine everybody in the first place? The only way to do it, is to wait until the number of new infections goes to zero.
    By that stage we're on the verge of herd immunity, which is why the infections are dropping. Many people have already had it recovered, most without ever knowing they had it, because the real infection rates were so much higher than reported. The point of the quarantine is not to end up with everyone sick and in the ICU at once and overload the health system in the same week.
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  12. #1842
    neck of peace Galindo62's Avatar
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    Lol at drastic changes. Unfortunately this will be forgotten by the beginning of next year.


    Lookup some history docs about the spanish flu and see how little things have changed.

    The "work from home" and "online school" growth have been stagnant. Truth is employer dont want their workers at home and teachers and students like being in class

    (I'm a virtual guy I wish it would speed up but it might not be in my lifetime where it's the norm...or ever)
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  13. #1843
    Registered Abuser chino3's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by HYMENATOR View Post
    By that stage we're on the verge of herd immunity, which is why the infections are dropping. Many people have already had it recovered, most without ever knowing they had it, because the real infection rates were so much higher than reported. The point of the quarantine is not to end up with everyone sick and in the ICU at once and overload the health system in the same week.
    Meanwhile asian countries are seeing a huge resurgence of infections ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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  14. #1844
    Registered User MediocreGains's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Galindo62 View Post
    Lol at drastic changes. Unfortunately this will be forgotten by the beginning of next year.


    Lookup some history docs about the spanish flu and see how little things have changed.
    Agreed. Plagues were a normal part of life until about a hundred years ago. There will be economic consequences that might last for some time, but the way we do things will be back to normal in a year or so.
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  15. #1845
    Registered User alobri3's Avatar
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    lol at comparing today's society with one 100 years ago.
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  16. #1846
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    Every American keeping a thermometer, full serving of hydroxychlroquine, covid test kit, and a mask in their medicine cabinet will likely be a work-around when this comes back in the fall
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    Registered Abuser chino3's Avatar
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    As much as I was waiting for another dip, there is still something sickening about seeing red almost all the across your portfolio lol. Only thing that has been green is CVS. I ended up DCA on several positions and gave up on SBUX and KO. I only have one potential bag that is of concern, but I think it's time to "check out" for the next year or two...
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    LOL at tvix


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    Too late now to buy puts on Delta and Southwest.

    But this is pretty big deal, in terms of airlines stocks.

    Monday all airlines stock will go to shiiter, even further.

    Berkshire Hathaway Cuts Delta, Southwest Stakes

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d&cmpId=google
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    I wonder what changed for them to take a loss and sell Delta.

    Originally Posted by Carbonfibre View Post
    Too late now to buy puts on Delta and Southwest.

    But this is pretty big deal, in terms of airlines stocks.










    Monday all airlines stock will go to shiiter, even further.

    Berkshire Hathaway Cuts Delta, Southwest Stakes

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d&cmpId=google
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  21. #1851
    nah bro im sweat mike.hunt's Avatar
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    Is anybody actually making money trading options with the IV so high and irrational market movements? These last 2-3 weeks have been a complete chit show
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    Slingshot "V-shaped" recovery my ass...

    This is depression level disruption going on in the economy right now. We are going to be on lockdown past July. Watch.
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  23. #1853
    User Registered Carbonfibre's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by ajctennis View Post
    I wonder what changed for them to take a loss and sell Delta.
    Cutting losses now to buy back when its even lower.

    To me this signals that Berkshire doesn't see this ending in month.

    Its gonna go a lot lower before we see any rebound.


    Originally Posted by mike.hunt View Post
    Is anybody actually making money trading options with the IV so high and irrational market movements? These last 2-3 weeks have been a complete chit show
    I have lost more than gained so far. Close to being even but yeah IV is joke. Would need to do put debit spread.

    I lost ****load on SPY put. Than gained some back on call. decided to never attempt SPY again.

    have now some BA puts, F puts, AAL puts, DIS puts. (around $10K in total)

    Profit can still be made like ZM puts, USO calls and any energy calls last few days.
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  24. #1854
    John 3:16 Geneticz's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Carbonfibre View Post
    Too late now to buy puts on Delta and Southwest.

    But this is pretty big deal, in terms of airlines stocks.

    Monday all airlines stock will go to shiiter, even further.

    Berkshire Hathaway Cuts Delta, Southwest Stakes

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d&cmpId=google
    Brah they barely sold any in the scheme of things. 1/6 of delta and hardly any southwest. Hes just getting cash ready for a giant acquisition.
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    User Registered Carbonfibre's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Geneticz View Post
    Brah they barely sold any in the scheme of things. 1/6 of delta and hardly any southwest. Hes just getting cash ready for a giant acquisition.
    They sold $300 million shares of Delta and $70 million of Southwest, so far.

    Who says they won't sell even more?

    Yeah they are still holding billion but if Delta CEO says their revenue will fall 90 percent in Q2 that's pretty substantial.

    And I agree they will come back when this is done buying even bigger stake.

    Delta and Southwest are already 10% down after hours.
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  26. #1856
    Registered Abuser chino3's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Geneticz View Post
    Brah they barely sold any in the scheme of things. 1/6 of delta and hardly any southwest. Hes just getting cash ready for a giant acquisition.

    This. In the same article it states they’re leaving well over a billion dollars in each holding lol.
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  27. #1857
    Registered User savageoldman's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Kane_89 View Post
    Slingshot "V-shaped" recovery my ass...

    This is depression level disruption going on in the economy right now. We are going to be on lockdown past July. Watch.
    agreed, not convinced the markets are recovering
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  28. #1858
    nah bro im sweat mike.hunt's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Carbonfibre View Post
    Cutting losses now to buy back when its even lower.

    To me this signals that Berkshire doesn't see this ending in month.

    Its gonna go a lot lower before we see any rebound.




    I have lost more than gained so far. Close to being even but yeah IV is joke. Would need to do put debit spread.

    I lost ****load on SPY put. Than gained some back on call. decided to never attempt SPY again.

    have now some BA puts, F puts, AAL puts, DIS puts. (around $10K in total)

    Profit can still be made like ZM puts, USO calls and any energy calls last few days.

    Yea I’m basically back to breakeven where I started back in December. Sold my USO calls yesterday wishing I had held them longer but things are so unpredictable. Im probably just gonna sell overpriced short term puts and collect the premium. Slow and boring but at least won’t get wiped out.
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  29. #1859
    User Registered Carbonfibre's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by chino3 View Post
    This. In the same article it states they’re leaving well over a billion dollars in each holding lol.
    If you are playing with options.

    This news will move the stocks instantly.
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  30. #1860
    God loves you Venom08's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by mike.hunt View Post
    Yea I’m basically back to breakeven where I started back in December. Sold my USO calls yesterday wishing I had held them longer but things are so unpredictable. Im probably just gonna sell overpriced short term puts and collect the premium. Slow and boring but at least won’t get wiped out.
    Selling ITM puts on indices that don't expire until 2022 is the way to go imo.
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