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  1. #1411
    Registered Abuser chino3's Avatar
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    I can’t help but smh at people who think we’re in the clear. We’re looking at 50x the amount of deaths in the not so distant future. And that’s assuming 1) people actually start adhering to the shelter in place orders, and 2) we extend the shelter in place orders.

    If we don’t do both of those? The death toll will be WAY higher.

    In the best case or worst case scenarios, there is a whole lot of room for chaos in the market.
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  2. #1412
    John 3:16 Geneticz's Avatar
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    literally LOLING at all the people thinking were going lower and have not set the bottom yet. Could we go lower? of course we could. Will we? Who knows

    You are all hoping because the train could leave the station without you and you want to buy in. HAHA - this is why you DCA and not guess.

    Going to literally LOL and bump every post if we hit bottom and market doesnt react to anything else.

    And if we do hit a new bottom? Guess what Im buying more.

    Trump going to RUN this stock market up till 2024.
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  3. #1413
    N3rd Op3rator twovalvekid's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by chino3 View Post
    I can’t help but smh at people who think we’re in the clear. We’re looking at 50x the amount of deaths in the not so distant future. And that’s assuming 1) people actually start adhering to the shelter in place orders, and 2) we extend the shelter in place orders.

    If we don’t do both of those? The death toll will be WAY higher.

    In the best case or worst case scenarios, there is a whole lot of room for chaos in the market.
    The problem is, unless you have 0 cases, it's going to spread again. At a certain point i bet were going to get to where we get back and running and keep "risk groups" at home. Basically flip flop where we are now.

    And not diminishing it, but the longer it takes to get to bad flu season numbers, i think my above point will slowly become the drum beat.
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  4. #1414
    test the limits RobParks2M's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by chino3 View Post
    I can’t help but smh at people who think we’re in the clear. We’re looking at 50x the amount of deaths in the not so distant future. And that’s assuming 1) people actually start adhering to the shelter in place orders, and 2) we extend the shelter in place orders.

    If we don’t do both of those? The death toll will be WAY higher.

    In the best case or worst case scenarios, there is a whole lot of room for chaos in the market.
    Cautious optimism is what I've been preaching. Buy sectors that are gonna hold up, hold things with strong balance sheets, and sell some of the newage-y tech stuff losing billions each year. Some people don't understand you should have more buying than selling in times like these. Don't go crazy, but keep adding to positions.


    EDIT: wtf does dca mean? I keep seeing people post it...
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  5. #1415
    Registered User Unstumpable's Avatar
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    Tempting to throw a couple thousand on Disney.
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  6. #1416
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    Originally Posted by RobParks2M View Post
    Cautious optimism is what I've been preaching. Buy sectors that are gonna hold up, hold things with strong balance sheets, and sell some of the newage-y tech stuff losing billions each year. Some people don't understand you should have more buying than selling in times like these. Don't go crazy, but keep adding to positions.


    EDIT: wtf does dca mean? I keep seeing people post it...
    Dollar cost average. Now help me out.
    When doing research, would you say the balance sheet is the most important thing to look at? Newbie here.
    When I research a potential company, I look at the balance sheet, cash flow and income statement. What else am I missing???
    Last edited by onepieceisreals; Today at 08:55 AM.
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  7. #1417
    Haha yeah Lefticle's Avatar
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    Been DCAing between $3k-$5k every week since the initial drop. Just put another $4k in today.
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  8. #1418
    Forever aBOARD guest89's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by RobParks2M View Post
    Cautious optimism is what I've been preaching. Buy sectors that are gonna hold up, hold things with strong balance sheets, and sell some of the newage-y tech stuff losing billions each year. Some people don't understand you should have more buying than selling in times like these. Don't go crazy, but keep adding to positions.


    EDIT: wtf does dca mean? I keep seeing people post it...
    Dollar cost averaging. For example; I'm investing $250.00-$300.00 every week. Preferably when the market is red. If Friday rolls around and its green, I still buy. I'm going to do this throughout this entire ordeal. And when the market's recover, I'll continue.



    As opposed to just saving $250 per week and hoping for the bottom to go all in.


    Originally Posted by Lefticle View Post
    Been DCAing between $3k-$5k every week since the initial drop. Just put another $4k in today.
    Why go all in on Monday as opposed to toward the end of the week?
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  9. #1419
    Registered User nas_is_illmatic's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Unstumpable View Post
    Tempting to throw a couple thousand on Disney.
    I think $DIS is a good buy. I took some shares at $130 a few months ago prior to the launch of Disney+. The thesis was that content will be king in stream. Yes, they paid a **** ton for Fox, but Disney has shown consistently they are able to monetize their content. Even controversial moves, like what they did with Star Wars, has generally been a positive ROI. Stuff like Marvel and what they did with creating franchise upon franchise is the bull case, but I doubt they do that with everything.

    The stock was recently trading at $150 and has cratered. This is rightly so because they're disproportionately affected by the virus (think parks, ESPN, movie theaters for films, etc.). That said, I think most of the bad news is priced in in the mid-80s/low-90s and the good news is Disney won't have to incinerate cash for the rights to distribute content or even create it like $NFLX will. They can also be leaders in direct to streaming if movie theaters go the way of the do-do because they again have the content and don't have to cater to middle men (movie theaters).

    I say go for it. I wish I could buy a lot more, but I have a mostly full position. I put a limit order to buy some more at $90, but I think it's a great stock for those with a long-term horizon (5 years+).
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  10. #1420
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    Originally Posted by guest89 View Post
    Dollar cost averaging. For example; I'm investing $250.00-$300.00 every week. Preferably when the market is red. If Friday rolls around and its green, I still buy. I'm going to do this throughout this entire ordeal. And when the market's recover, I'll continue.



    As opposed to just saving $250 per week and hoping for the bottom to go all in.



    Why go all in on Monday as opposed to toward the end of the week?
    Why end of week? Market more red on fridays?
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  11. #1421
    Registered User SazabiBrah's Avatar
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    Bought my first stock ever of Disney even though I hate the company! Das it mane
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  12. #1422
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    Originally Posted by RobParks2M View Post
    Buying grocers is a no brainer right now. Their sales this year gonna be crazy

    Bought Kroger at 28 and 29 last week.
    My wife is very high up in grocery and there is something(s) you may not be considering. Until about a week ago all of her stores have been up daily by insane numbers like by 200% or more. That has changed because by law she can only have very few people in each store now at a time and sales have dropped off heavy because of that. She even had one store yesterday I believe that was down 9% when compared to last year.

    I’m sure for the year they will all be up heavy but not as heavy as you may think because of this requirement and also because if you don’t have product on the shelf you can’t sell it.

    I will also tell you every freaking body just got a bonus at 100%, hers was five digits and she is expecting to get another one that is 50%-75% of the amount of this one in a few weeks for the next Q.

    So price in the fact that volume is down because of occupancy limits, out of stocks and heavy duty bonuses. But don’t cry for me brahs, we are doing paid over here
    Last edited by ReadyToLift2019; Today at 09:49 AM.
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  13. #1423
    Forever aBOARD guest89's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by onepieceisreals View Post
    Why end of week? Market more red on fridays?
    Seems fairly unpredictable. Any little announcement from Trump can have it going either way it seems.

    I have 5 holdings in green and 6 holdings in red today. Funny thing is last night miscers are speculating whether it would be a red or a green day. To me it looks like it just depends on what your holding. Fortunately for me the red were smaller holdings that I'm speculating on.
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  14. #1424
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    Originally Posted by onepieceisreals View Post
    Dollar cost average. Now answer my question ..
    When your doing research, is the balance sheet the most important thing to look at? Newbie here
    But when I reach a potential company, I look at the balance sheet, cash flow and income statement. What else am I missing
    My opinion:

    It's goes beyond looking at a few ratios based on trailing numbers, but most important is to look at balance sheet & cash flow in conjunction. You want to see high operating cash flow and low to no debt. The biggest problem with this bear market is operations could literally shut down for an entire quarter or more. I want to own companies that are liquid (i.e. do they have enough cash on-hand to service debt and pay OPEX) in the short-term. Additionally, I'd want to think through their current assets and potentially adjust some of them downward. For example, if the company's suppliers are a bunch of O&G companies that are illiquid and will have trouble paying their debts, I would need to adjust A/R down when assessing liquidity because it's likely they'll stretch or default on their payables.

    From there, I try to look at companies that will have a catalyst for success once this passes. This could be as simple as a return to business due to brand (my thesis with $SBUX/$DIS) or big picture trends that aren't going away (i.e. move to cash-less society for $V, 5G for $QCOM/$AAPL). So far, I'm doing fine, but this is what I would do if I were looking at individual stocks right now.
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  15. #1425
    test the limits RobParks2M's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by onepieceisreals View Post
    Dollar cost average. Now answer my question ..
    When your doing research, is the balance sheet the most important thing to look at? Newbie here
    But when I reach a potential company, I look at the balance sheet, cash flow and income statement. What else am I missing
    For a lot of people that stuff isn't really that helpful because they don't look at industry standards so they don't understand what the numbers mean in context. It kinda takes awhile to grasp what "good" numbers look like while more experienced people can figure it out very quickly. I personally don't comb through that stuff, but do look at some of the ratios and such.


    Right now I'm looking at profitability and sales growth (gotta have the profitability though- sales growth alone isn't a buy factor for me right now) as the number 1 factor for buying. With this logic you can see why I have been buying grocery chains. Even in normal markets grocery stores make money. Right now even more so. Gonna look into buying some food makers like Hormel this week as well.

    Second thing is the balance sheets. Apple and Microsoft are both sitting on big piles of Cash. Both should be probably neutral to buy currently as their products will have pent up demand and 10/10 they will be around to benefit from said pent up demand. Microsoft might actually edge apple right now as people are sitting bored at home buying their video games to play.

    Last thing I'd probably consider is beat up sectors like travel/hotels. I'm eyeing Hilton to jump into once we are closer to recovery. Kinda wish I wouldda got on board when they hit the 50s, but probably still a great deal currently. I haven't looked at how long they can sustain this level of decline, but as one of the bigger names I'm pretty certain they would weather the storm with or without stimulus.


    EDIT: ^thanks NAS- I forgot about the debt thing. Big debts are bad obviously, but a low-moderate amount isn't awful thanks to current interest rates.

    Originally Posted by ReadyToLift2019 View Post

    My wife is very high up in grocery and there is something(s) you may not be considering. Until about a week ago all of her stores have been up daily by insane numbers like by 200% or more. That has changed because by law she can only have very few people in each store now at a time and sales have dropped off heavy because of that. She even had one store yesterday I believe that was down 9% when compared to last year.

    I will also tell you every freaking body just got a bonus at 100%, hers was five digits and she is expecting to get another one that is 50%-75% of the amount of this one in a few weeks for the next Q.
    Not sure where she works, but Walmart, Walgreens, Kroger, and most others don't have bonus structure like that OR person limits in the stores.(Albertsons did boost employee pay though and I'm guessing HEB is doing similar with the bonuses?) These bonuses are pennies to the amount of added sales/profit per person working. Of course the week or 2 after having 200%+ weeks are going to be lower for a week- its a no brainer.

    You can bank on the fact that people are going to buy more food at grocery stores this year than they did in the last few years. School is out for the year already and old people staying home are 2 big contributors to added grocery store sales. In addition to this, every time there is a "run" on stuff people buy out the cheap things and THEN people panic buy the more expensive brands with higher mark up. Profitability is higher across the board I am quite certain.

    There isn't a supply issue simply a demand problem. Shelves have been getting restocked and bought out every so often, but it really hasn't been that bad around here. Thank god for all the truck drivers because my division has been getting 3x the normal amount of trucks with 1.5x the usual load size per truck.

    Source: I see the numbers and many of my peers from college are confirming similar trends where they work.
    Last edited by RobParks2M; Today at 09:15 AM.
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  16. #1426
    N3rd Op3rator twovalvekid's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by RobParks2M View Post
    Cautious optimism is what I've been preaching. Buy sectors that are gonna hold up, hold things with strong balance sheets, and sell some of the newage-y tech stuff losing billions each year. Some people don't understand you should have more buying than selling in times like these. Don't go crazy, but keep adding to positions.


    EDIT: wtf does dca mean? I keep seeing people post it...
    This is what is helping me and why im positive in almost every holding now. Get stocks that still will be "positive" even if people stay home (like shipping stocks or telecom plays for example).

    Trimmed about 30% of my ZM this morning to lock in some profits (and cash). Have about 20% of the portfolio in cash. If we get another couple up days for MRNA and HD, i may trim some there as well. Then wait for the jobs number on friday.
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  17. #1427
    Registered Abuser chino3's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Geneticz View Post
    literally LOLING at all the people thinking were going lower and have not set the bottom yet. Could we go lower? of course we could. Will we? Who knows

    You are all hoping because the train could leave the station without you and you want to buy in. HAHA - this is why you DCA and not guess.

    Going to literally LOL and bump every post if we hit bottom and market doesnt react to anything else.

    And if we do hit a new bottom? Guess what Im buying more.

    Trump going to RUN this stock market up till 2024.
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    Buy high, sell higher. HMFIC_BROWSIN's Avatar
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    Thinking of just doing more amzn right now instead of s&p index fund.
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    test the limits RobParks2M's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by HMFIC_BROWSIN View Post
    Thinking of just doing more amzn right now instead of s&p index fund.
    Why you thinking amazon even though they haven't gone down much lately and they stopped selling things other than "essentials" for the moment? genuinely curious
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    Originally Posted by RobParks2M View Post
    Why you thinking amazon even though they haven't gone down much lately and they stopped selling things other than "essentials" for the moment? genuinely curious
    Guess my BBQ meat shredders were deemed "essential."
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    Originally Posted by RobParks2M View Post
    Why you thinking amazon even though they haven't gone down much lately and they stopped selling things other than "essentials" for the moment? genuinely curious
    The fact it hasn't gone down much is one of the main reasons I like it. S&p is more heavily tied to the oil apocalypse/corona/travel industry than amzn. People can't shop at stores, so if they actually have any money, it is more likely to go to Amazon right now.
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    Originally Posted by HMFIC_BROWSIN View Post
    The fact it hasn't gone down much is one of the main reasons I like it. S&p is more heavily tied to the oil apocalypse/corona/travel industry than amzn. People can't shop at stores, so if they actually have any money, it is more likely to go to Amazon right now.

    Ahh true. Shopping from home increases and everything else decreases more. Actually not a bad idea.
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    Originally Posted by RobParks2M View Post
    For a lot of people that stuff isn't really that helpful because they don't look at industry standards so they don't understand what the numbers mean in context. It kinda takes awhile to grasp what "good" numbers look like while more experienced people can figure it out very quickly. I personally don't comb through that stuff, but do look at some of the ratios and such.


    Right now I'm looking at profitability and sales growth (gotta have the profitability though- sales growth alone isn't a buy factor for me right now) as the number 1 factor for buying. With this logic you can see why I have been buying grocery chains. Even in normal markets grocery stores make money. Right now even more so. Gonna look into buying some food makers like Hormel this week as well.

    Second thing is the balance sheets. Apple and Microsoft are both sitting on big piles of Cash. Both should be probably neutral to buy currently as their products will have pent up demand and 10/10 they will be around to benefit from said pent up demand. Microsoft might actually edge apple right now as people are sitting bored at home buying their video games to play.

    Last thing I'd probably consider is beat up sectors like travel/hotels. I'm eyeing Hilton to jump into once we are closer to recovery. Kinda wish I wouldda got on board when they hit the 50s, but probably still a great deal currently. I haven't looked at how long they can sustain this level of decline, but as one of the bigger names I'm pretty certain they would weather the storm
    Thanks for the reply, you sound very knowledgable. I'm rather new to investing but I did take accounting classes so i tend to fall back on the financial statements to help me make decisions. Any material or books you can recommend so that I become a better investor?
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    Originally Posted by RobParks2M View Post
    Why you thinking amazon even though they haven't gone down much lately and they stopped selling things other than "essentials" for the moment? genuinely curious
    They’re still selling things other than essentials, they’re just not prioritizing it for fastest shipping options right now is my understanding.
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