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    registered fuk ass drFEEL's Avatar
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    Scientifically, what is the virulence of this Corona Virus compared with flu/cold????

    I see a bunch of info about it but nothing stating its virulence.

    Seems to have similar transmissibility, symptoms, and outcomes as the flu or cold so whats the deal????

    The only alarming thing I have seen is that a few seemingly young and healthy people have developed pneumonia from it which is serious but probably also happens with the flu or cold im assuming.
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    Originally Posted by drFEEL View Post
    I see a bunch of info about it but nothing stating its virulence.

    Seems to have similar transmissibility, symptoms, and outcomes as the flu or cold so whats the deal????

    The only alarming thing I have seen is that a few seemingly young and healthy people have developed pneumonia from it which is serious but probably also happens with the flu or cold im assuming.
    It's 10-15x more transmittable than the flu and has about a 20x+ mortality rate. In another week or two you're really going to see this thing exponentially take off.
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    does it hurt???
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    Originally Posted by faxanadu View Post
    It's 10-15x more transmittable than the flu and has about a 20x+ mortality rate. In another week or two you're really going to see this thing exponentially take off.
    Can I have a source for this?


    "COVID-19: Approximately 6,705 deaths reported worldwide; 69 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 16, 2020.*

    Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

    The COVID-19 situation is changing rapidly. Since this disease is caused by a new virus, people do not have immunity to it, and a vaccine may be many months away. Doctors and scientists are working on estimating the mortality rate of COVID-19, but at present, it is thought to be higher than that of most strains of the flu."

    *This information comes from the Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases map developed by the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering.
    https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/heal...019-vs-the-flu
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    u dont want to mess with something that is giving masses of people pneumonia. pneumonia's death rate is about 20-30%
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    Originally Posted by faxanadu View Post
    It's 10-15x more transmittable than the flu and has about a 20x+ mortality rate. In another week or two you're really going to see this thing exponentially take off.
    doesnt seem accurate boy

    Originally Posted by 2RDEYE View Post
    u dont want to mess with something that is giving masses of people pneumonia. pneumonia's death rate is about 20-30%
    ok but does it cause pneumonia at a higher rate than the flu or cold?
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    Way worse this the flu
    Governments don’t quarantine their citizens for the flu
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    Originally Posted by 2RDEYE View Post
    u dont want to mess with something that is giving masses of people pneumonia. pneumonia's death rate is about 20-30%
    I've had pneumonia before as a teen, it's not fun.

    Bronchitis, the flu, and even allergies can lead to pneumonia.
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    Originally Posted by 5x10 View Post
    Way worse this the flu
    Governments don’t quarantine their citizens for the flu
    If we never heard of the flu before, and it arrived like it did now, we'd be freaking out even more.

    “I think what we’re seeing with Covid-19 is what influenza would look like without a vaccine,” said Neil Fishman, who is chief medical officer at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania and an infectious-disease specialist.
    and add

    Covid-19’s higher death rate is one reason that billionaire global-health philanthropist Bill Gatesrecently warned in an article in the New England Journal of Medicine that “Covid-19 has started behaving a lot like the once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about.”

    But public-health scientists say the real death rate is probably lower than the current estimates. U.S. health officials suggested in another article in the New England Journal of Medicine that the death rate could be well below 1%. (Other estimates have ranged between 1% and 2%.) That’s because current calculations are based on tallies of people who were ill enough to be tested, they wrote.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronav...er-11583856879
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    It's over for you aleeboy's Avatar
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    It’s more contagious than the cold and much more contagious than the flu. FYI, colds have a higher R0 than the flu.

    Symptoms for Covid-19
    - chest tightness with noticeable effort required to breath. Minor amount of phlegm. Definitely felt this early and may even have been slightly before diarrhea.
    - diarrhea was the first symptom after being tired. Noticed when my body shut down during a run.
    - Gastrointestinal hit was quite strong. Felt as if an alien was going to pop out. It could also feel like general soreness in the lower intestine. This hits the lower intestine.
    - headache was strong AF and lasted over 10 days.
    - pressure on sinuses (eyes especially). Lasted over 10 days
    - body ache especially pronounced in the neck and middle traps adjacent to lungs. Also sore forearms, wrists and hands. This went on for more than 10 days. Some may get pain in their lower back
    - throat irritation and dryness. Feeling of constriction that occurs randomly. This lasts for over 10 days.


    You will have a general feeling of tiredness for a few days and some chest tightness with possible diarrhea. This is followed by a severe headache with body aches and throat irritation for well over a week. After this, you will most likely recover as your headache, sinus issues and body ache dissipates. Breathing becomes much easier and you may experience some runny nose. Nothing like a cold though where you need tissues all the time... it seems as though it is running just as the pressure om the sinuses alleviates.

    Based on evidence in front of my eyes, it seems to impact girls to a lesser extent.

    This is from two cases of well trained high VO2 Max people with top tier genetics.
    Last edited by aleeboy; 03-18-2020 at 03:35 AM. Reason: Added more details
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    Originally Posted by aleeboy View Post
    It’s more contagious than the cold and much more contagious than the flu. FYI, colds have a higher R0 than the flu.
    There's not enough data to conclude this. Since this is new, people have not yet had the time to develop immunities to it.

    Symptoms for Covid-19
    - headache
    - pressure on sinuses (eyes especially)
    - body ache especially pronounced in the neck and middle traps. Some may get pain in their lower back
    - throat irritation and dryness
    - chest tightness with noticeable effort required to breath
    Sounds like the flu
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    Originally Posted by aleeboy View Post
    It’s more contagious than the cold and much more contagious than the flu. FYI, colds have a higher R0 than the flu.

    Symptoms for Covid-19
    - headache
    - pressure on sinuses (eyes especially)
    - body ache especially pronounced in the neck and middle traps. Some may get pain in their lower back
    - throat irritation and dryness
    - chest tightness with noticeable effort required to breath

    You will have a general feeling of tiredness for a few days and some chest tightness. This is followed by a severe headache with body aches and throat irritation for a week. After this, you will most likely recover as your headache, sinus issues and body ache dissipates. Breathing becomes much easier.

    This is from two cases of well trained high VO2 Max people with top tier genetics.
    theres a video in the corona sticky that talks about R0 and how it wasnt very applicable.

    but how can it be more contagious than the flu or cold. Corona is droplet precautions not airborne
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    Originally Posted by Tomohokk View Post
    There's not enough data to conclude this. Since this is new, people have not yet had the time to develop immunities to it.



    Sounds like the flu
    Originally Posted by drFEEL View Post
    theres a video in the corona sticky that talks about R0 and how it wasnt very applicable.

    but how can it be more contagious than the flu or cold. Corona is droplet precautions not airborne
    Boys, I’ve had the flu once in my life. I’ve had so many colds I’ve lose count. I also had that there.

    My guess is it’s more contagious or as contagious as a cold.

    I would rather have Covid-19 again than the flu though. The flu came with such a severe fever that I was in tears Each time a wet towed touched any part of my body to cool down. Some colds I have had were much stronger than Covid-19. Bacterial tonsillitis is more severe than Covid-19.

    I imagine many may be scared of the headache though. I’ve never had a stronger headache in my life. Lol
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    Originally Posted by drFEEL View Post
    but how can it be more contagious than the flu or cold. Corona is droplet precautions not airborne
    Read:

    As of now, there are “no unique clinical signatures” that distinguish the onset of covid-19 from influenza, Nolan said. Research on the known cases so far suggests that the vast majority, some 80 percent, are mild. Health officials have urged those experiencing mild symptoms to self-manage from home with over-the-counter cold and flu aids, rather than crowding hospital emergency and waiting rooms.

    Those experiencing more severe symptoms, such as trouble breathing, lethargy or a fever that won’t break, should call a doctor. Both the coronavirus and influenza can cause pneumonia, an infection of the lungs that can be life-threatening in infants, children and people over 65.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...lu-comparison/

    Originally Posted by aleeboy View Post
    The flu came with such a severe fever that I was in tears Each time a wet towed touched any part of my body to cool down. Some colds I have had were much stronger than Covid-19. Bacterial tonsillitis is more severe than Covid-19.

    I imagine many may be scared of the headache though. I’ve never had a stronger headache in my life. Lol
    Oh yeah, flu definitely definitely sucks.
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    Originally Posted by aleeboy View Post
    Boys, I’ve had the flu once in my life. I’ve had so many colds I’ve lose count. I also had that there.

    My guess is it’s more contagious or as contagious as a cold.

    I would rather have Covid-19 again than the flu though. The flu came with such a severe fever that I was in tears Each time a wet towed touched any part of my body to cool down. Some colds I have had were much stronger than Covid-19. Bacterial tonsillitis is more severe than Covid-19.

    I imagine many may be scared of the headache though. I’ve never had a stronger headache in my life. Lol
    You had da Covid-19?
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    Originally Posted by Dirtylocks View Post
    You had da Covid-19?
    Yes, it is a version of the cold IMO.

    Flu is much worse due to fever.

    I am used to headaches from working in stressful jobs. Have to admit, the headache was strong AF though... and the back ache was a bitch. I think Tom Hanks was on point... if my description and Tom Hank's is believable:



    I had diarrhea as the first symptom. It may take two weeks to clear the virus from your system.

    Also, I have pretty good fitness since I place running > lifting, so I dunno if this helped.

    Again, the flu was worse for me and I had the flu a long time ago and it still gives me bad memories.
    Last edited by aleeboy; 03-16-2020 at 11:38 PM.
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    Originally Posted by aleeboy View Post
    It’s more contagious than the cold and much more contagious than the flu. FYI, colds have a higher R0 than the flu.

    Symptoms for Covid-19
    - diarrhea
    - headache
    - pressure on sinuses (eyes especially)
    - body ache especially pronounced in the neck and middle traps adjacent to lungs. Some may get pain in their lower back
    - throat irritation and dryness. Feeing of constriction that occurs randomly
    - chest tightness with noticeable effort required to breath. Minor amount of phlegm

    You will have a general feeling of tiredness for a few days and some chest tightness with possible diarrhea. This is followed by a severe headache with body aches and throat irritation for a week. After this, you will most likely recover as your headache, sinus issues and body ache dissipates. Breathing becomes much easier and you may experience some runny nose. Nothing like a cold though. Just as the sinus pressure alleviates.

    This is from two cases of well trained high VO2 Max people with top tier genetics.
    do you get nauseous/vomit??
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    It's over for you aleeboy's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by imbored21 View Post
    do you get nauseous/vomit??
    No, I had diarrhea and some funny feeling in my stomach that lasted for 4 days I think. I'm not sure, the headache was extremely strong, so it could be anywhere from 3-5 days of diarrhea and some funny feeling in my lower intestine (to be more accurate). I was operating at around 70% mental capacity, so it wasn't too bad, but I didn't like this feeling of being dumber than my usual level of dumb
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    Originally Posted by drFEEL View Post
    theres a video in the corona sticky that talks about R0 and how it wasnt very applicable.

    but how can it be more contagious than the flu or cold. Corona is droplet precautions not airborne
    Studies showing aerosolized for mean time of 2.7 hours and survives on surfaces over 13 hours. WHO now saying may need to consider airborne precautions. This makes more sense with how it has spread in many situations.

    A big issue with this that hasn’t been outlined is that while it is worse than the flu (we can debate with data on how much) it is not replacing the flu, but is additive to current hospital workloads. Canada will be rapidly overwhelmed and the downstream effects, as shown in Italy, are increased morbidity for everyone. You crash your car? Resources are tied up, no ventilator in the OR. Heart attack? Nobody available in cath lab. People die on waitlists for “elective surgeries.”


    Here in BC (Canada) I know this is a disaster as I’m keenly aware of our ICU capacity provincially... and it’s not good.
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    Originally Posted by blindsideflank View Post
    A big issue with this that hasn’t been outlined is that while it is worse than the flu (we can debate with data on how much) it is not replacing the flu, but is additive to current hospital workloads. Canada will be rapidly overwhelmed and the downstream effects, as shown in Italy, are increased morbidity for everyone. You crash your car? Resources are tied up, no ventilator in the OR. Heart attack? Nobody available in cath lab. People die on waitlists for “elective surgeries.”


    Here in BC (Canada) I know this is a disaster as I’m keenly aware of our ICU capacity provincially... and it’s not good.
    Honestly, people aren't gonna want to hear this, but because viruses / bacteria evolve and mutate constantly: people will always be exposed. If not corona, something else could easily mutute and overtake us.

    Instead of depending on and putting your entire health in the hands of a very flawed healthcare system, it should be used as a last resort.

    Taking care of your health - proper hygiene, knowledge of your body's immune system, eating healthy, exercising right, feeding your body with the proper nutrients so it is strong enough to fight diseases should be priority. This will prevent maladies such as drug-resistant bacterial infections through abuse of antibiotics as well as address other iatrogenic illnesses.

    This is a reflection of us as a society. When we teach our own that we should eat whatever we want, obesity is 'sexy too', and generally disregard others poor health choices for 'they feelings,' we are putting society as a whole in danger.
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    Originally Posted by aleeboy View Post
    Yes, it is a version of the cold IMO.

    Flu is much worse due to fever.

    I am used to headaches from working in stressful jobs. Have to admit, the headache was strong AF though... and the back ache was a bitch. I think Tom Hanks was on point... if my description and Tom Hank's is believable:



    I had diarrhea as the first symptom. It may take two weeks to clear the virus from your system.

    Also, I have pretty good fitness since I place running > lifting, so I dunno if this helped.

    Again, the flu was worse for me and I had the flu a long time ago and it still gives me bad memories.
    BTW thanks for sharing bro, reps on r/c
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    Originally Posted by Tomohokk View Post
    Honestly, people aren't gonna want to hear this, but because viruses / bacteria evolve and mutate constantly: people will always be exposed. If not corona, something else could easily mutute and overtake us.

    Instead of depending on and putting your entire health in the hands of a very flawed healthcare system, it should be used as a last resort.

    Taking care of your health - proper hygiene, knowledge of your body's immune system, eating healthy, exercising right, feeding your body with the proper nutrients so it is strong enough to fight diseases should be priority. This will prevent maladies such as drug-resistant bacterial infections through abuse of antibiotics as well as address other iatrogenic illnesses.

    This is a reflection of us as a society. When we teach our own that we should eat whatever we want, obesity is 'sexy too', and generally disregard others poor health choices for 'they feelings,' we are putting society as a whole in danger.
    Exactly, bro.

    I always troll people that eat out, use food delivery services and those who lift, but don't run.

    Also, please date girls with V02 Max > 45 only.
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    The current death rate (~3% as per The Lancet https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...180-8/fulltext being reported in the scientific literature needs to be viewed skeptically. First, this is a value derived from people who were severely sick and already had immunodeficiencies to begin with. Second, the majority of cases haven't been resolved as of yet so its hard to evaluate the severity across a broad enough spectrum of patients (i.e. young vs old. etc). Third, there is quite the sample size difference between the amount of influenza(>220,000 in the USA) vs COVID cases (119,239 worldwide as of March 11) so directly comparing death rates between the two is tricky to say the least. Just for reference the death rate for influenza/pneumonia in the USA as per the CDC is at 7.1% currently.

    As a research scientist myself (work in molecular bio) I will say that this isn't nothing, nor is it the end of the world. Just from the scientific literature it seems like the major concern is that these types of RNA viruses can have the potential to mutate and the slim chance of that happening combined with the quick spread of it is troubling. From what I remember regarding these types of viruses the main issue is that they potentially have a higher mutation rate due to their RNA genomes and thus could be more difficult to develop vaccines against a particular strain. This increased mutation rate is most likely how this virus jumped from animal to human circulation. It should be said that the majority of mutations are going to be neutral or detrimental to it just based on pure probability so the chances of it mutating to a more deadly form are incredibly low.


    If anything, the disjointed response internationally is just as much of an issue than the virus itself imo.
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    Originally Posted by wisezeppelin View Post
    The current death rate (~3% as per The Lancet https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...180-8/fulltext being reported in the scientific literature needs to be viewed skeptically. First, this is a value derived from people who were severely sick and already had immunodeficiencies to begin with. Second, the majority of cases haven't been resolved as of yet so its hard to evaluate the severity across a broad enough spectrum of patients (i.e. young vs old. etc). Third, there is quite the sample size difference between the amount of influenza(>220,000 in the USA) vs COVID cases (119,239 worldwide as of March 11) so directly comparing death rates between the two is tricky to say the least. Just for reference the death rate for influenza/pneumonia in the USA as per the CDC is at 7.1% currently.

    As a research scientist myself (work in molecular bio) I will say that this isn't nothing, nor is it the end of the world. Just from the scientific literature it seems like the major concern is that these types of RNA viruses can have the potential to mutate and the slim chance of that happening combined with the quick spread of it is troubling. From what I remember regarding these types of viruses the main issue is that they potentially have a higher mutation rate due to their RNA genomes and thus could be more difficult to develop vaccines against a particular strain. This increased mutation rate is most likely how this virus jumped from animal to human circulation. It should be said that the majority of mutations are going to be neutral or detrimental to it just based on pure probability so the chances of it mutating to a more deadly form are incredibly low.


    If anything, the disjointed response internationally is just as much of an issue than the virus itself imo.
    Nice post man. You have a level head.

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    Death rate under 40: 0.2%.

    This stat in itself is distorted since cases only include those that report it.

    Plenty of people just stay away from hospital and some may simply mistake it for regular flu. 7 days later, fine.

    Not exactly a death sentence is it?! You'd think a bloody asteroid was hurling towards Earth.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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    Here are the real numbers:

    It's considerably more contagious than the flu ... R0 of 1.3 for flu and 2 to 3.4 for corona
    https://www.zmescience.com/other/pie...simple-charts/






    As far as case fatality rate:





    In other words, if we didn't take serious mitigation and containment measures, we'd have a really really bad situation on our hands.
    Last edited by LukeLissen; 03-17-2020 at 12:57 AM.
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    drFEEL, I’m beginning to think you’re not a real doctor...
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    what i dont understand is how come rudy gobert and mitchell were the only utah jazz players to test positive?

    they play a sport with very close contact, breathing heavily on each other, touching the same ball, sharing locker room, team bus and plane and no one else gets it?
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    Originally Posted by LukeLissen View Post
    Here are the real numbers:

    It's about twice as contagious as the flu ... R0 of 1.3 for flu and 2 to 3.4 for corona https://www.zmescience.com/other/pie...simple-charts/


    As far as case fatality rate:


    [img]https://i.insider.com/5e5fc740fee23d14eb3dd212?width=600&format=jpeg&aut o=webp[img]
    Why these numbers are misleading:


    Covid-19’s higher death rate is one reason that billionaire global-health philanthropist Bill Gatesrecently warned in an article in the New England Journal of Medicine that “Covid-19 has started behaving a lot like the once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about.”

    But public-health scientists say the real death rate is probably lower than the current estimates. U.S. health officials suggested in another article in the New England Journal of Medicine that the death rate could be well below 1%. (Other estimates have ranged between 1% and 2%.) That’s because current calculations are based on tallies of people who were ill enough to be tested, they wrote.
    Source: See my post above
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    Originally Posted by aleeboy View Post
    It’s more contagious than the cold and much more contagious than the flu. FYI, colds have a higher R0 than the flu.

    Symptoms for Covid-19
    - diarrhea
    - headache
    - pressure on sinuses (eyes especially)
    - body ache especially pronounced in the neck and middle traps adjacent to lungs. Some may get pain in their lower back
    - throat irritation and dryness. Feeing of constriction that occurs randomly
    - chest tightness with noticeable effort required to breath. Minor amount of phlegm

    You will have a general feeling of tiredness for a few days and some chest tightness with possible diarrhea. This is followed by a severe headache with body aches and throat irritation for a week. After this, you will most likely recover as your headache, sinus issues and body ache dissipates. Breathing becomes much easier and you may experience some runny nose. Nothing like a cold though. Just as the sinus pressure alleviates.

    This is from two cases of well trained high VO2 Max people with top tier genetics.
    FML-have had a chest infection for 5 weeks, had them all my life & breathing has sucked for a month now. If I get this thing I will likely either be on a ventilator-if my hospital has enough of them, or in the morgue.
    And that's the bottom line, cause Jimbob said so.
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