Predictions: United States COVID-19 death toll by April 01, 2020

[SillieBazzillie]

gotta remember that sillie is at heightened risk for this

While true, not the point. Saying that people had underlying conditions that really caused them to die doesn't change the fact that they died only because of the virus. And the majority of people in our unfit country have underlying conditions.

Even a death rate of 0.66% is multples that of flu. Tens of thousands, per the CDC, die from the flu AND we have a flue vaccine.

Ask the hospitals in NY and New Orleans just how minor this is. Soon to be coming to a city near everyone unfortunately.

[Cleveland33]

While true, not the point. Saying that people had underlying conditions that really caused them to die doesn't change the fact that they died only because of the virus. And the majority of people in our unfit country have underlying conditions.

Even a death rate of 0.66% is multples that of flu. Tens of thousands, per the CDC, die from the flu AND we have a flue vaccine.

Ask the hospitals in NY and New Orleans just how minor this is. Soon to be coming to a city near everyone unfortunately.

Bold, unsubstantiated statement.

I never said it was minor. I said our reaction is overboard.

[PlanoLifter]

we also don't know how many had coronavirus but actually died because of an underlying medical issue - if you have it and die that is counting in the death toll.

If these people would have been alive but for the fact that they got coronavirus then please explain why the underlying conditions matter at all.

[Cleveland33]

If these people would have been alive but for the fact that they got coronavirus then please explain why the underlying conditions matter at all.

You don't know that - that's the point.

The first guy that passed locally had the virus and had a heart attack and he is being included in the numbers.

[Jryt]

You don't know that - that's the point.

The first guy that passed locally had the virus and had a heart attack and he is being included in the numbers.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41569-020-0360-5

Corona has cardiac toxicities that can cause myocardial (heart) damage and make people more likely to suffer cardiac events.

What italian doctors have been finding is that when they extubate patients there can be a sudden and severe cardiac failure, rather than respiratory failure.

There are multiple reasons for this, inflammatory states make acute coronary syndrome more likely and can cause arrhythmias, reduced oxygenation increases the body's demand for oxygen which can also cause myocardial ischemia etc.

tl;dr people will have heart attacks when they are infected by covid19 that they wouldn't have otherwise had, and they should definitely be included in the numbers so we can properly gather the data and sift through it.

[PlanoLifter]

You don't know that - that's the point.

The first guy that passed locally had the virus and had a heart attack and he is being included in the numbers.

You do know that C-19 has is apparently causing heart attacks in some people, yes?

So what's your solution? Should deaths be attributed to C-19 if and only if the victim was absolutely healthy with no other conditions or comorbidities?

[BigBallsMcgee]

I dont think other places will get a bad as ny. But seeks like everyone is assuming it will

[Cleveland33]

You do know that C-19 has is apparently causing heart attacks in some people, yes?

So what's your solution? Should deaths be attributed to C-19 if and only if the victim was absolutely healthy with no other conditions or comorbidities?

"apparently" but are we going to completely ignore any underlying symptoms that may have contributed, like obesity?

my solution is to keep perspective, like monitoring the recovery rates as well - which is difficult to find but over the weekend reached 150,000

[BigBallsMcgee]

"apparently" but are we going to completely ignore any underlying symptoms that may have contributed, like obesity?

my solution is to keep perspective, like monitoring the recovery rates as well - which is difficult to find but over the weekend reached 150,000

You literally never hear recovery rates mentioned. I've been lead to believe everyone is on a ventilator and drumph's trying to take those away

[Jryt]

"apparently" but are we going to completely ignore any underlying symptoms that may have contributed, like obesity?

my solution is to keep perspective, like monitoring the recovery rates as well - which is difficult to find but over the weekend reached 150,000

How would you say covid causes fatalities? Patients are either dying of cardiac or respiratory failure, it's not like they hit a certain viral load and then just randomly die. So you count respiratory and cardiac failures in the coronavirus case fatalities, because the infection was a major contributor to the development of that event.

Similarly if someone had metastatic cancer, the cause of death is usually respiratory failure/sepsis or some other organ failure, but you still include the death in the cancer statistics because it was the major contributor to the development of that terminal event.

Also recoveries hit 150 000 globally over the weekend compared to ~35 000 deaths. That's a pretty poor ratio, but the reason we don't talk about this number as much is because the end point is much more difficult to ascertain and the data is much less clear. The end point of death is very easy to obtain and case fatalities is much more easily compared across data sets.

[Dorich]

Looks like the winner will be Jayarbie.

4000

...

I personally predict 140 - 160 deaths.

360

450

I'd say 500

Not counting the elderly that are only alive because of modern medicine I'm going to go with less than 100. More people will die from falling off their toilet than health adults from covid

700 deaths, conservatively

Between 1 000 and 2 000

2536

2300

I going to say its somewhere between 300 to 400.

420

My guess is around 1-2000.

It's gonna be sub 500

Over 500.

Going to be 850-1000.

1700+

at least 2k by then

Pretty sure I heard it was at 400 today and they say it doubles every 4 days... We're about 8 days away from 4/1 so I'll go with 1600.

I wish it were none, but it'll be about ~3,000 on April 1st and ~7,500 on April 7th.

[voltio8836]

Wow look how off everybody was...

[Jayarbie]

Looks like the winner will be Jayarbie.



...

We passed 4000 overnight between 3/31 and 4/1. I couldn't have been more dead on. My prediction is 50,000 on 5/1.

[SillieBazzillie]

We passed 4000 overnight between 3/31 and 4/1. I couldn't have been more dead on. My prediction is 50,000 on 5/1.

Well to be fair, you were only going up against the few non-cult ITT. The cult were all told that the virus was a hoax and the 15 infected would soon go to 0.

[Blasting]

Man, these are some dark times. Hope you guys are staying positive. We’ll get through this eventually.

[Blasting]

Well to be fair, you were only going up against the few non-cult ITT. The cult were all told that the virus was a hoax and the 15 infected would soon go to 0.

Give it up (srs)

It’s not funny anymore.

[SillieBazzillie]

Give it up (srs)

It’s not funny anymore.

Give what up? Look at the low estimates ITT. Trump told everyone he had it under control and his sycophants naturally believed him.

And he did say numerous times it was no big deal.

[djfuzzy]

150,000,000, or roughly the amount of people that die from firearms each year.

So close...

[Blasting]

Give what up? Look at the low estimates ITT. Trump told everyone he had it under control and his sycophants naturally believed him.

And he did say numerous times it was no big deal.

He was wrong. A lot of people were. On both sides.

There are a lot of people dying now and you’re still being snarky about it. You’re in your fukking 50’s dude. It just comes across as pathetic.

[Reliance012]

1000 deaths by end of day April 1. Though it’s hard to predict how much the restrictions in place will reduce infection rate. If “just a flu” crowd had their way, ie do nothing, we’d be at 4,000 deaths by April 1. Srs

I was on the higher end of predictions early ITT, and even I underestimated. Honestly thought the measures we took would kick in faster. But seeing how so many are ignoring them, I’m not surprised.

Lowest possible number is 2k. If I had to guess as of now, I’d say 4-5k by END of day April 1 EST.

Posted 3/17, 3/23. I overestimated the effects of quarantine, in part because I underestimated how damn selfish and idiotic humans are. After seeing pictures of huge gatherings in the past several weeks I’m not surprised at all.

[Jayarbie]

Posted 3/17, 3/23. I overestimated the effects of quarantine, in part because I underestimated how damn selfish and idiotic humans are. After seeing pictures of huge gatherings in the past several weeks I’m not surprised at all.

The 4/1 death numbers aren't really affected by the quarantine/social distancing. The incubation period is 14 days, so we're seeing the effect on the new cases now, but hospitalization is typically a week after symptoms and death is a week after hospitalization, so the people dying now got the disease in early March before the quarantine.

[SillieBazzillie]

He was wrong. A lot of people were. On both sides.

There are a lot of people dying now and you’re still being snarky about it. You’re in your fukking 50’s dude. It just comes across as pathetic.

Call it reverse psychology. So his supporters may one day wake up and see what a danger having a low IQ, immoral, narcissistic POS like him lead the country is.

And I'm no fan of Biden but I'll take him 1M out of 1M times over Trump. If Pence were the POTUS I'd feel differently.

[Blasting]

Call it reverse psychology. So his supporters may one day wake up and see what a danger having a low IQ, immoral, narcissistic POS like him lead the country is.

And I'm no fan of Biden but I'll take him 1M out of 1M times over Trump. If Pence were the POTUS I'd feel differently.

You’re like a little kid.

[SillieBazzillie]

You’re like a little kid.

Because I think Trump is a low IQ, immoral, narcissistic POS? And that he's made things worse?

That's fine. I'll drop it.

[Reliance012]

The 4/1 death numbers aren't really affected by the quarantine/social distancing. The incubation period is 14 days, so we're seeing the effect on the new cases now, but hospitalization is typically a week after symptoms and death is a week after hospitalization, so the people dying now got the disease in early March before the quarantine.

I’m not necessarily talking about the state sponsored quarantines. I agree those effects are yet to manifest. Self isolation and quarantine for sick individuals has been recommended and really pushed since late Jan/early Feb by the media. I overestimated how many people would take those recommendations seriously.

[Jayarbie]

I’m not necessarily talking about the state sponsored quarantines. I agree those effects are yet to manifest. Self isolation and quarantine for sick individuals has been recommended and really pushed since late Jan/early Feb by the media. I overestimated how many people would take those recommendations seriously.

Self-quarantine of sick individuals was never going to have a significant impact even if people followed it religiously because of the up-to-14 days you're contagious but not sick, so you're not quarantining, just spreading it.

[SillieBazzillie]

We passed 4000 overnight between 3/31 and 4/1. I couldn't have been more dead on. My prediction is 50,000 on 5/1.

I think 50k by 5/1 is a foregone conclusion. The real test to see if advanced social isolation in non-hot spot areas of the country would be not hitting 100k by 5/15 or so.

Florida has me very very concerned. If this thing gets into the Villages for example, that'd be real bad.

[Reliance012]

Self-quarantine of sick individuals was never going to have a significant impact even if people followed it religiously because of the up-to-14 days you're contagious but not sick, so you're not quarantining, just spreading it.

If someone is going to show symptoms, the vast majority of spread is done during that stage. If followed religiously, there is absolutely no question self quarantine of sick individuals would have helped.

Also, I don’t think the average incubation time is 14 days. I think that’s closer to the maximum. I honestly haven’t looked recently, but I bet it’s closer to a week.

[superman704]

There was an old man coughing really loud at the grocery store yesterday, without covering his mouth, it was awful

[dakensta]

There was an old man coughing really loud at the grocery store yesterday, without covering his mouth, it was awful

We have old fooks only hours in our shops now. TBH I think it'll kill them off faster rather than protect them, as old fooks are the worst at not following anti-infection guidelines.