Why does the forum no deny access if your post is longer than three sentences or has quotes and links?
This is the crux of the problem.
Most people are sheep. Most people have had independent, critical thinking hammered out of them. Most people take what politicians/media/"experts" who aren't say as gospel.
Most people believe something like "wearing a mask doesn't help and might be worse" when the .gov/media says so.
I had a longer post but the forum sucks dick and won't let something that long get posted right now
In short most people are sheep who refuse to take personal responsibility for themselves or make their own informed decisions. This includes politicians who make bad decisions and just point up to a higher level politician and try to blame [the higher politician] for not making [the lower politican's] choice for them. No, mayor of new orleans, it's not Trumps job to cancel mardis gras
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Results 5,101 to 5,130 of 7508
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03-31-2020, 07:55 AM #5101
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03-31-2020, 07:56 AM #5102
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03-31-2020, 08:06 AM #5103
what projections are you talkin about? at this pace theres nothin to indicate we will hit a million TEST POSITIVE cases. the hospitalization rate for postive tested cases is very roughly 20%. so if there are 10x TOTAL (asymptomatic) cases, that hospitalization rate drops to 2%.
if there are a fukton positive cases out there, then they are asymptomatic and are not likely to start suddenly pouring into hospitals.
you cant say theres 10 x hidden cases out there, so anyminute now were gonna have 20% of THAT 10x becoming critical. its potato mathematics.do not read my posts and weep, i am not there i do not sleep
i am the thousand greens that rep, i am the ban bet dutifully kept
of memes and trolls in toasted breads, i am not there, i am not dead.
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03-31-2020, 08:28 AM #5104
Don’t give a phuk what people think about me crew. I’d wear my girlfriends panties on my face if it came down to that. Speaking of which I swear silk panties would make a good mask, haha.
Luckily I have 1 n95, wondering how long it lasts tho
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03-31-2020, 08:33 AM #5105
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03-31-2020, 08:39 AM #5106
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03-31-2020, 08:59 AM #5107
The cases aren't "hidden" or asymptomatic. They are simply not getting tested. This may be improving in some areas (availability of testing) and I believe that a rapid test is supposed to be rolled out soon. Reports continue of people exhibiting all the symptoms but denied a test even after testing negative for flu.
The truly asymptomatic cases seem to be very few; maybe 5% to max 20%. Hard to say as I've read of people being asymptomatic and then symptoms developing later.
Also the test itself it problematic. Many reports of false negatives, sometimes multiple false negatives, before a positive. I don't know if this is particular to the qualities of the virus, or the test. They ram a swab up your nose to get a sample. So are they not getting a good swab? Is there something faulty in the test itself? A ton of test shipped out by China were found to be ineffective.
The only solid data we seem to have right now is 1) hospital admits and 2) confirmed cases/deaths.INTP Crew
Inattentive ADD Crew
Mom That Miscs Crew
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03-31-2020, 09:08 AM #5108do not read my posts and weep, i am not there i do not sleep
i am the thousand greens that rep, i am the ban bet dutifully kept
of memes and trolls in toasted breads, i am not there, i am not dead.
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03-31-2020, 09:09 AM #5109
- Join Date: Apr 2012
- Location: Alberta, Canada
- Age: 39
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- Rep Power: 234893
South Korea has probably the most extensive and successful testing of the areas with a decent number of cases, and their data shows a 20% hospitalization rate and 2-3% fatality rate
It'll still vary between areas and populations and is a relatively small sample size, but those are likely the most reliable numbers we have
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03-31-2020, 09:11 AM #5110
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03-31-2020, 09:12 AM #5111
This is a model being run on another forum using death data.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediafile...NG-1341163.JPG
The guy running it is pretty damned pessimistic overall re:total death in the US. He sees R0 average as 4 with Italy getting their's down to about 2 with lock down measures.INTP Crew
Inattentive ADD Crew
Mom That Miscs Crew
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03-31-2020, 09:16 AM #5112
My warehouse has ordered masks. Somewhat annoyed. These Amazon potatoes going on strike behind their leader who showed up to work despite being ordered to stay home because he was fukking exposed to the virus bout to make my life a bit harder. Imagine a world where not more than 1% of the grocery worker, gas station attendants, nor anyone else in public here is wearing a mask, but the guy with virtually zero human contact is forced to. Fukkin nuts.
Honestly I think everyone should be wearing a mask, the fact that we're not is another govt failure to plan. Fukking stupid.Virtue is its own reward.
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03-31-2020, 09:17 AM #5113
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03-31-2020, 09:28 AM #5114
Sorry. That thread is massive and I haven't "saved" too much. This is a model tracking correlation of confirmed cases to deaths 15 days later.
https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFile...AM-1339749.png
Different poster puts these up. I know that the guy who does the first one has a predictive one too, just don't have it handy right now.
The guy who puts up the cases/deaths correlation one also had one running re:case numbers increasing based on a couple of different possible tracks. He dropped the least bad track because the data was outpacing his worst track. Said that the model would fail to be usable at some point as he predicted that reporting/testing would break down. I think that one ran through the end of April.
Both have agreed that the increase seemed to slow down the last day or two. Don't know if that is current or meaningful. Haven't tried to dive in over there yet today.INTP Crew
Inattentive ADD Crew
Mom That Miscs Crew
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03-31-2020, 09:39 AM #5115do not read my posts and weep, i am not there i do not sleep
i am the thousand greens that rep, i am the ban bet dutifully kept
of memes and trolls in toasted breads, i am not there, i am not dead.
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03-31-2020, 09:42 AM #5116
Yes, bell shaped. I sincerely don't math very well myself. So I read around a lot and try to following the reasoning behind the model. Wish Wincel would have just engaged in "math education" and stayed out of the political/super doom mode. Since he says he tutors people you would think he would be capable of educating people in ELI5 style without getting PO'd and insulting.
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03-31-2020, 09:53 AM #5117
- Join Date: Mar 2008
- Location: Cumming, Georgia, United States
- Posts: 130,807
- Rep Power: 564604
I mean, it obviously can't be exponential forever because you can't have 400% of the population infected.
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03-31-2020, 09:53 AM #5118
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03-31-2020, 09:55 AM #5119
Homemade sewed masks crew.
Only a few people were wearing masks at the grocery, like 1 in 10. Most of the people there were in their 40s most likely.
Why the hell were they not wearing anything at all? A scarf at least is better than nothing.
If you're making homemade masks, put a coffee filter on your nose/face first and then cover it with the mask. Much better.⭐⭐⭐***Pullups crew***⭐⭐⭐
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03-31-2020, 09:57 AM #5120
yea and we can guess pretty good where the inflection point is based on other countries
goat is SK at ~8 days
woat is Italy at ~26 days
we are prob there already or near it at 24 days.
you have to go to like 40 some days to get to these bigger numbers. it was possible earlier, but the epi curve becomes gradually more "confident"do not read my posts and weep, i am not there i do not sleep
i am the thousand greens that rep, i am the ban bet dutifully kept
of memes and trolls in toasted breads, i am not there, i am not dead.
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03-31-2020, 10:12 AM #5121
Some twitch sloot should be selling her panties to be used as masks. Millions to be made.
#thotaudit crew
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03-31-2020, 10:14 AM #5122
- Join Date: Mar 2008
- Location: Cumming, Georgia, United States
- Posts: 130,807
- Rep Power: 564604
Let's not forget the information in the OP of this thread
"CDC does not recommend that people who are well wear a facemask to protect themselves from respiratory diseases, including COVID-19.
Facemasks should be used by people who show symptoms of COVID-19 to help prevent the spread of the disease to others. The use of facemasks is also crucial for health workers and people who are taking care of someone in close settings (at home or in a health care facility).
Can't argue with the CDC?
lol, CDC.
Embarrassment
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03-31-2020, 10:29 AM #5123
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03-31-2020, 10:35 AM #5124
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03-31-2020, 10:45 AM #5125
Last statement is absolutely true.
People can't accept responsibility for their own personal shortcomings and like to blame those above for not making the decision for them. However, if said person above made the decision for them, then that person would bitch and moan about something else.
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03-31-2020, 10:57 AM #5126
I’m reading speculation that the cdc is going to change their stance on masks
A reporter asked trump about it and he said it may be needed, temporarilyDallas Cowboys
Lifted for 30 years
Ass > tits
No Debt Crew
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03-31-2020, 11:03 AM #5127
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03-31-2020, 11:06 AM #5128
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I promise they [all medical professionals at the CDC] know we should be, it's a matter of politics, optics, and supply
Don't want to panic people by being honest about how helpful masks are when there are no masks to be had, and don't want to admit we were lied to in the beginning to try to keep limited supply from being diverted
I'm sure if and when they stop lying and do recommend masks, Trump will tell us about the tremendous [unspecified] number of masks he has ordered [IE they don't exist at this time] [from China] that will be available 'next week' [at least 4 weeks out maybe longer]
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03-31-2020, 11:32 AM #5129
- Join Date: Mar 2008
- Location: Cumming, Georgia, United States
- Posts: 130,807
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Yesterday Italy had their 3rd highest daily deaths yet.
3 of their 4 deadliest days were in the last 4 days.
We're coming up on 2 weeks from the date first hoped to be the peak and fall, and daily deaths are still nearly double what they were then.
(812 yesterday alone)
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03-31-2020, 11:34 AM #5130
How long you think shutdown going to continue? Cause virus isn't going away anytime soon so I don't know if we're going to continue like this for years or wtf the long term plan is here.
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