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  1. #5101
    I can do this all day Farley1324's Avatar
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    Why does the forum no deny access if your post is longer than three sentences or has quotes and links?

    Originally Posted by 5x10 View Post
    why rely on the government? Just use an old tshirt
    This is the crux of the problem.

    Most people are sheep. Most people have had independent, critical thinking hammered out of them. Most people take what politicians/media/"experts" who aren't say as gospel.

    Most people believe something like "wearing a mask doesn't help and might be worse" when the .gov/media says so.

    I had a longer post but the forum sucks dick and won't let something that long get posted right now

    In short most people are sheep who refuse to take personal responsibility for themselves or make their own informed decisions. This includes politicians who make bad decisions and just point up to a higher level politician and try to blame [the higher politician] for not making [the lower politican's] choice for them. No, mayor of new orleans, it's not Trumps job to cancel mardis gras

  2. #5102
    ☆☆☆☆☆ MAN jackamo2887's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by 5x10 View Post
    i do to

    I was talking to the guy that has the actual scenario going down ,

    Lmao at being a grown man and laughing at how others look, like a middle school girl
    Jakes on you my mask is Burberry.
    Survival. When the jungle tears itself down and builds itself into something new. Guys like you and me, we end up dead. Doesn’t really mean anything. Or, if we happen to live through it, well that doesn’t mean anything either.

  3. #5103
    yerrrrrrrr meh? AltarOfPlagues's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by LukeLissen View Post
    On the contrary, the actual numbers have been following their projections very accurately so far.

    Also, you're referring to confirmed cases with overly limited testing, not actual cases which are in fact much higher. Many infected are not being tested and many who seek testing are being refused testing.

    Actual cases are outpacing testing and are much higher than confirmed cases.

    Testing and confirmed cases tells us only how many people are being tested and of those how many test positive. That's all. It certainly does not tell us actual cases.
    what projections are you talkin about? at this pace theres nothin to indicate we will hit a million TEST POSITIVE cases. the hospitalization rate for postive tested cases is very roughly 20%. so if there are 10x TOTAL (asymptomatic) cases, that hospitalization rate drops to 2%.


    if there are a fukton positive cases out there, then they are asymptomatic and are not likely to start suddenly pouring into hospitals.


    you cant say theres 10 x hidden cases out there, so anyminute now were gonna have 20% of THAT 10x becoming critical. its potato mathematics.
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  4. #5104
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    Don’t give a phuk what people think about me crew. I’d wear my girlfriends panties on my face if it came down to that. Speaking of which I swear silk panties would make a good mask, haha.

    Luckily I have 1 n95, wondering how long it lasts tho

  5. #5105
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    Originally Posted by Johnez View Post
    ^Looks legit.

    Such grammar. Much vocabulary.

    Just lol. "Evoke"

    Negged. Fuk, on spread broski!

    So are you saying this is a hoax?
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  6. #5106
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    Originally Posted by waytoodeep03 View Post
    So are you saying this is a hoax?
    Your "email" from your "brother" about a "two week quarantine"-yes.
    The gravity of the situation-no.
    Virtue is its own reward.

  7. #5107
    No Huevos katya422's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by AltarOfPlagues View Post
    what projections are you talkin about? at this pace theres nothin to indicate we will hit a million TEST POSITIVE cases. the hospitalization rate for postive tested cases is very roughly 20%. so if there are 10x TOTAL (asymptomatic) cases, that hospitalization rate drops to 2%.


    if there are a fukton positive cases out there, then they are asymptomatic and are not likely to start suddenly pouring into hospitals.


    you cant say theres 10 x hidden cases out there, so anyminute now were gonna have 20% of THAT 10x becoming critical. its potato mathematics.
    The cases aren't "hidden" or asymptomatic. They are simply not getting tested. This may be improving in some areas (availability of testing) and I believe that a rapid test is supposed to be rolled out soon. Reports continue of people exhibiting all the symptoms but denied a test even after testing negative for flu.

    The truly asymptomatic cases seem to be very few; maybe 5% to max 20%. Hard to say as I've read of people being asymptomatic and then symptoms developing later.

    Also the test itself it problematic. Many reports of false negatives, sometimes multiple false negatives, before a positive. I don't know if this is particular to the qualities of the virus, or the test. They ram a swab up your nose to get a sample. So are they not getting a good swab? Is there something faulty in the test itself? A ton of test shipped out by China were found to be ineffective.

    The only solid data we seem to have right now is 1) hospital admits and 2) confirmed cases/deaths.
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  8. #5108
    yerrrrrrrr meh? AltarOfPlagues's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by katya422 View Post
    The only solid data we seem to have right now is 1) hospital admits and 2) confirmed cases/deaths.
    great then the numbers are easy to project and something would have to drastically change for us to hit a million.
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  9. #5109
    Registered User Destor's Avatar
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    South Korea has probably the most extensive and successful testing of the areas with a decent number of cases, and their data shows a 20% hospitalization rate and 2-3% fatality rate


    It'll still vary between areas and populations and is a relatively small sample size, but those are likely the most reliable numbers we have

  10. #5110
    I can do this all day Farley1324's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Destor View Post
    South Korea has probably the most extensive and successful testing of the areas that have seen a decent number of cases, and their data shows a 20% hospitalization rate and 2-3% fatality rate


    It'll still vary between areas and populations, but those are likely the most reliable numbers we have
    That would be pretty terrible considering how freely ameritards are behaving and spreading this vs south korea

  11. #5111
    No Huevos katya422's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by AltarOfPlagues View Post
    great then the numbers are easy to project and something would have to drastically change for us to hit a million.
    This is a model being run on another forum using death data.

    https://www.ar15.com/media/mediafile...NG-1341163.JPG

    The guy running it is pretty damned pessimistic overall re:total death in the US. He sees R0 average as 4 with Italy getting their's down to about 2 with lock down measures.
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  12. #5112
    Registered User Johnez's Avatar
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    My warehouse has ordered masks. Somewhat annoyed. These Amazon potatoes going on strike behind their leader who showed up to work despite being ordered to stay home because he was fukking exposed to the virus bout to make my life a bit harder. Imagine a world where not more than 1% of the grocery worker, gas station attendants, nor anyone else in public here is wearing a mask, but the guy with virtually zero human contact is forced to. Fukkin nuts.

    Honestly I think everyone should be wearing a mask, the fact that we're not is another govt failure to plan. Fukking stupid.
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  13. #5113
    yerrrrrrrr meh? AltarOfPlagues's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by katya422 View Post
    This is a model being run on another forum using death data.

    https://www.ar15.com/media/mediafile...NG-1341163.JPG

    The guy running it is pretty damned pessimistic overall re:total death in the US. He sees R0 average as 4 with Italy getting their's down to about 2 with lock down measures.
    thats current data thats not a projection.
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  14. #5114
    No Huevos katya422's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by AltarOfPlagues View Post
    thats current data thats not a projection.
    Sorry. That thread is massive and I haven't "saved" too much. This is a model tracking correlation of confirmed cases to deaths 15 days later.

    https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFile...AM-1339749.png

    Different poster puts these up. I know that the guy who does the first one has a predictive one too, just don't have it handy right now.

    The guy who puts up the cases/deaths correlation one also had one running re:case numbers increasing based on a couple of different possible tracks. He dropped the least bad track because the data was outpacing his worst track. Said that the model would fail to be usable at some point as he predicted that reporting/testing would break down. I think that one ran through the end of April.

    Both have agreed that the increase seemed to slow down the last day or two. Don't know if that is current or meaningful. Haven't tried to dive in over there yet today.
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    yerrrrrrrr meh? AltarOfPlagues's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by katya422 View Post

    Both have agreed that the increase seemed to slow down the last day or two. Don't know if that is current or meaningful. Haven't tried to dive in over there yet today.
    yah literally everywhere for all disease. its not an exponential function its logisitc function

    it is not this.



    it is this.




    his y= formula is exponential so it only works for the first half of the epicurve at best.

    edit
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  16. #5116
    No Huevos katya422's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by AltarOfPlagues View Post
    yah literally everywhere for all disease. its not an exponential function its logisitc function

    it is not this.



    it is this.

    Yes, bell shaped. I sincerely don't math very well myself. So I read around a lot and try to following the reasoning behind the model. Wish Wincel would have just engaged in "math education" and stayed out of the political/super doom mode. Since he says he tutors people you would think he would be capable of educating people in ELI5 style without getting PO'd and insulting.
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    I can do this all day Farley1324's Avatar
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    I mean, it obviously can't be exponential forever because you can't have 400% of the population infected.

  18. #5118
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    Originally Posted by waytoodeep03 View Post
    America is mobilizing the national guard.

    My brother received this email on this morning.
    negged.. national guard is controlled per state and cant be nationalized dumb azz good luck with your idiotic fear mongering spread.

    Originally Posted by Johnez View Post
    ^Looks legit.

    Such grammar. Much vocabulary.

    Just lol. "Evoke"

    Negged. Fuk, on spread broski!
    same ghahahaha

  19. #5119
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    Homemade sewed masks crew.

    Only a few people were wearing masks at the grocery, like 1 in 10. Most of the people there were in their 40s most likely.
    Why the hell were they not wearing anything at all? A scarf at least is better than nothing.


    If you're making homemade masks, put a coffee filter on your nose/face first and then cover it with the mask. Much better.
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    yerrrrrrrr meh? AltarOfPlagues's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    I mean, it obviously can't be exponential forever because you can't have 400% of the population infected.
    yea and we can guess pretty good where the inflection point is based on other countries

    goat is SK at ~8 days

    woat is Italy at ~26 days

    we are prob there already or near it at 24 days.



    you have to go to like 40 some days to get to these bigger numbers. it was possible earlier, but the epi curve becomes gradually more "confident"
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    Some twitch sloot should be selling her panties to be used as masks. Millions to be made.
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    I can do this all day Farley1324's Avatar
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    Let's not forget the information in the OP of this thread

    "CDC does not recommend that people who are well wear a facemask to protect themselves from respiratory diseases, including COVID-19.
    Facemasks should be used by people who show symptoms of COVID-19 to help prevent the spread of the disease to others. The use of facemasks is also crucial for health workers and people who are taking care of someone in close settings (at home or in a health care facility).


    Can't argue with the CDC?

    lol, CDC.

    Embarrassment

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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    Let's not forget the information in the OP of this thread

    "CDC does not recommend that people who are well wear a facemask to protect themselves from respiratory diseases, including COVID-19.
    Facemasks should be used by people who show symptoms of COVID-19 to help prevent the spread of the disease to others. The use of facemasks is also crucial for health workers and people who are taking care of someone in close settings (at home or in a health care facility).


    Can't argue with the CDC?

    lol, CDC.

    Embarrassment
    Stay safe
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    Originally Posted by WestAfrica View Post
    Stay safe
    It's too bad you can't have something like the CDC without politics being involved

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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    Why does the forum no deny access if your post is longer than three sentences or has quotes and links?



    This is the crux of the problem.

    Most people are sheep. Most people have had independent, critical thinking hammered out of them. Most people take what politicians/media/"experts" who aren't say as gospel.

    Most people believe something like "wearing a mask doesn't help and might be worse" when the .gov/media says so.

    I had a longer post but the forum sucks dick and won't let something that long get posted right now

    In short most people are sheep who refuse to take personal responsibility for themselves or make their own informed decisions. This includes politicians who make bad decisions and just point up to a higher level politician and try to blame [the higher politician] for not making [the lower politican's] choice for them. No, mayor of new orleans, it's not Trumps job to cancel mardis gras
    Last statement is absolutely true.

    People can't accept responsibility for their own personal shortcomings and like to blame those above for not making the decision for them. However, if said person above made the decision for them, then that person would bitch and moan about something else.

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    I’m reading speculation that the cdc is going to change their stance on masks
    A reporter asked trump about it and he said it may be needed, temporarily
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    ^wizard
    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    Let's not forget the information in the OP of this thread

    "CDC does not recommend that people who are well wear a facemask to protect themselves from respiratory diseases, including COVID-19.
    Facemasks should be used by people who show symptoms of COVID-19 to help prevent the spread of the disease to others. The use of facemasks is also crucial for health workers and people who are taking care of someone in close settings (at home or in a health care facility).


    Can't argue with the CDC?

    lol, CDC.

    Embarrassment
    Funny you mention it, CDC is currently mulling whether we should all be wearing masks out in public.
    Virtue is its own reward.

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    Originally Posted by Johnez View Post
    ^wizard


    Funny you mention it, CDC is currently mulling whether we should all be wearing masks out in public.
    I promise they [all medical professionals at the CDC] know we should be, it's a matter of politics, optics, and supply

    Don't want to panic people by being honest about how helpful masks are when there are no masks to be had, and don't want to admit we were lied to in the beginning to try to keep limited supply from being diverted

    I'm sure if and when they stop lying and do recommend masks, Trump will tell us about the tremendous [unspecified] number of masks he has ordered [IE they don't exist at this time] [from China] that will be available 'next week' [at least 4 weeks out maybe longer]

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    Yesterday Italy had their 3rd highest daily deaths yet.

    3 of their 4 deadliest days were in the last 4 days.

    We're coming up on 2 weeks from the date first hoped to be the peak and fall, and daily deaths are still nearly double what they were then.

    (812 yesterday alone)

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    How long you think shutdown going to continue? Cause virus isn't going away anytime soon so I don't know if we're going to continue like this for years or wtf the long term plan is here.
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