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  1. #5101
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    Originally Posted by dondadas View Post
    all i am saying is that if governments want to make wearing masks mandatory they need to provide an affordable way to get them

    i am not against wearing masks
    Yeah you don't come off that way, your point is well taken. At minimum they should clarify that masks can be virtually anything. They should be publishing PSA's about how to DIY the best mask until surgical masks can be ramped up and distributed etc.
    We are all gunna make it

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    Originally Posted by AltarOfPlagues View Post
    all those numbers are 2-4x too high.

    u need like 1.2 million cases to hit that and we are trending toward 400k
    On the contrary, the actual numbers have been following their projections very accurately so far.

    Also, you're referring to confirmed cases with overly limited testing, not actual cases which are in fact much higher. Many infected are not being tested and many who seek testing are being refused testing.

    Actual cases are outpacing testing and are much higher than confirmed cases.

    Testing and confirmed cases tells us only how many people are being tested and of those how many test positive. That's all. It certainly does not tell us actual cases.
    "Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious People. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other."
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  3. #5103
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    Originally Posted by Brandon556211 View Post
    Meanwhile in PA, CPA firms are considered "life essential" business. So here I am coming to work everyday. Seems like a great idea.
    Here in Ohio-tucky, the local frozen yogurt chains are open. Office Depot is also open, for an example of what has been considered "essential", as they sell bottled water and so qualify for the loophole.
    Fuk her right in the pussy.

  4. #5104
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    Originally Posted by waytoodeep03 View Post
    America is mobilizing the national guard.

    My brother received this email on this morning.

    []http://i.ibb.co/q9jH9Zs/IMG-58881.jpg[/img]
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    Originally Posted by dondadas View Post
    all i am saying is that if governments want to make wearing masks mandatory they need to provide an affordable way to get them

    i am not against wearing masks
    why rely on the government? Just use an old tshirt
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    Originally Posted by 5x10 View Post
    why rely on the government? Just use an old tshirt
    Cause we aren't ISIS rebels invading Syria. Who the **** is gonna go shopping for their cheerios with a God Damn t shirt wrapped around their head.
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  7. #5107
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    Proud Dad 5x10's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by jackamo2887 View Post
    Cause we aren't ISIS rebels invading Syria. Who the **** is gonna go shopping for their cheerios with a God Damn t shirt wrapped around their head.
    ok, so the states immediately issue an order that people are not able to enter grocery stores without a mask
    You don’t have a mask

    What are you gonna do in order to get your Cheerios?
    Too worried about the way you look with a T-shirt mask?
    Lmao
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    Originally Posted by 5x10 View Post
    ok, so the states immediately issue an order that people are not able to enter grocery stores without a mask
    You don’t have a mask

    What are you gonna do in order to get your Cheerios?
    Too worried about the way you look with a T-shirt mask?
    Lmao
    Am I allowed to wear a face mask boyo
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  10. #5110
    All men are created equal metroins's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by jackamo2887 View Post
    Cause we aren't ISIS rebels invading Syria. Who the **** is gonna go shopping for their cheerios with a God Damn t shirt wrapped around their head.
    I did curbside pickup and saw lines at the grocery store with people and t shirts over their face. Scarves, plastic shielding (homemade).

    It is socially acceptable to wear anything in public in Austin right now.

    I won't be doing curbside again, I sat in our HEPA Filtered SUV and opened/closed trunk from inside, while wearing an n95 mask and I still didn't feel safe.

    We're ordering Hello Fresh and Imperfect Foods for our produce now.
    Back on that injury recovery time, yoga stretching and running.

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    Originally Posted by 5x10 View Post
    ok, so the states immediately issue an order that people are not able to enter grocery stores without a mask
    You don’t have a mask

    What are you gonna do in order to get your Cheerios?
    Too worried about the way you look with a T-shirt mask?
    Lmao
    I have a mask. I planned like an adult so I can laugh at you wearing a t shirt around your face. Check mate kiddo!
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    Originally Posted by jackamo2887 View Post
    I have a mask. I planned like an adult so I can laugh at you wearing a t shirt around your face. Check mate kiddo!
    i do to

    I was talking to the guy that has the actual scenario going down ,

    Lmao at being a grown man and laughing at how others look, like a middle school girl
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    We know lol Farley1324's Avatar
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    Why does the forum no deny access if your post is longer than three sentences or has quotes and links?

    Originally Posted by 5x10 View Post
    why rely on the government? Just use an old tshirt
    This is the crux of the problem.

    Most people are sheep. Most people have had independent, critical thinking hammered out of them. Most people take what politicians/media/"experts" who aren't say as gospel.

    Most people believe something like "wearing a mask doesn't help and might be worse" when the .gov/media says so.

    I had a longer post but the forum sucks dick and won't let something that long get posted right now

    In short most people are sheep who refuse to take personal responsibility for themselves or make their own informed decisions. This includes politicians who make bad decisions and just point up to a higher level politician and try to blame [the higher politician] for not making [the lower politican's] choice for them. No, mayor of new orleans, it's not Trumps job to cancel mardis gras
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  14. #5114
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    Originally Posted by 5x10 View Post
    i do to

    I was talking to the guy that has the actual scenario going down ,

    Lmao at being a grown man and laughing at how others look, like a middle school girl
    Jakes on you my mask is Burberry.
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  15. #5115
    im gon make some shake AltarOfPlagues's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by LukeLissen View Post
    On the contrary, the actual numbers have been following their projections very accurately so far.

    Also, you're referring to confirmed cases with overly limited testing, not actual cases which are in fact much higher. Many infected are not being tested and many who seek testing are being refused testing.

    Actual cases are outpacing testing and are much higher than confirmed cases.

    Testing and confirmed cases tells us only how many people are being tested and of those how many test positive. That's all. It certainly does not tell us actual cases.
    what projections are you talkin about? at this pace theres nothin to indicate we will hit a million TEST POSITIVE cases. the hospitalization rate for postive tested cases is very roughly 20%. so if there are 10x TOTAL (asymptomatic) cases, that hospitalization rate drops to 2%.


    if there are a fukton positive cases out there, then they are asymptomatic and are not likely to start suddenly pouring into hospitals.


    you cant say theres 10 x hidden cases out there, so anyminute now were gonna have 20% of THAT 10x becoming critical. its potato mathematics.
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    Don’t give a phuk what people think about me crew. I’d wear my girlfriends panties on my face if it came down to that. Speaking of which I swear silk panties would make a good mask, haha.

    Luckily I have 1 n95, wondering how long it lasts tho

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    Originally Posted by Johnez View Post
    ^Looks legit.

    Such grammar. Much vocabulary.

    Just lol. "Evoke"

    Negged. Fuk, on spread broski!

    So are you saying this is a hoax?
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    Originally Posted by waytoodeep03 View Post
    So are you saying this is a hoax?
    Your "email" from your "brother" about a "two week quarantine"-yes.
    The gravity of the situation-no.
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  19. #5119
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    Originally Posted by AltarOfPlagues View Post
    what projections are you talkin about? at this pace theres nothin to indicate we will hit a million TEST POSITIVE cases. the hospitalization rate for postive tested cases is very roughly 20%. so if there are 10x TOTAL (asymptomatic) cases, that hospitalization rate drops to 2%.


    if there are a fukton positive cases out there, then they are asymptomatic and are not likely to start suddenly pouring into hospitals.


    you cant say theres 10 x hidden cases out there, so anyminute now were gonna have 20% of THAT 10x becoming critical. its potato mathematics.
    The cases aren't "hidden" or asymptomatic. They are simply not getting tested. This may be improving in some areas (availability of testing) and I believe that a rapid test is supposed to be rolled out soon. Reports continue of people exhibiting all the symptoms but denied a test even after testing negative for flu.

    The truly asymptomatic cases seem to be very few; maybe 5% to max 20%. Hard to say as I've read of people being asymptomatic and then symptoms developing later.

    Also the test itself it problematic. Many reports of false negatives, sometimes multiple false negatives, before a positive. I don't know if this is particular to the qualities of the virus, or the test. They ram a swab up your nose to get a sample. So are they not getting a good swab? Is there something faulty in the test itself? A ton of test shipped out by China were found to be ineffective.

    The only solid data we seem to have right now is 1) hospital admits and 2) confirmed cases/deaths.
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    im gon make some shake AltarOfPlagues's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by katya422 View Post
    The only solid data we seem to have right now is 1) hospital admits and 2) confirmed cases/deaths.
    great then the numbers are easy to project and something would have to drastically change for us to hit a million.
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    Registered User Destor's Avatar
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    South Korea has probably the most extensive and successful testing of the areas with a decent number of cases, and their data shows a 20% hospitalization rate and 2-3% fatality rate


    It'll still vary between areas and populations and is a relatively small sample size, but those are likely the most reliable numbers we have

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    Originally Posted by Destor View Post
    South Korea has probably the most extensive and successful testing of the areas that have seen a decent number of cases, and their data shows a 20% hospitalization rate and 2-3% fatality rate


    It'll still vary between areas and populations, but those are likely the most reliable numbers we have
    That would be pretty terrible considering how freely ameritards are behaving and spreading this vs south korea
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    Originally Posted by AltarOfPlagues View Post
    great then the numbers are easy to project and something would have to drastically change for us to hit a million.
    This is a model being run on another forum using death data.

    https://www.ar15.com/media/mediafile...NG-1341163.JPG

    The guy running it is pretty damned pessimistic overall re:total death in the US. He sees R0 average as 4 with Italy getting their's down to about 2 with lock down measures.
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    My warehouse has ordered masks. Somewhat annoyed. These Amazon potatoes going on strike behind their leader who showed up to work despite being ordered to stay home because he was fukking exposed to the virus bout to make my life a bit harder. Imagine a world where not more than 1% of the grocery worker, gas station attendants, nor anyone else in public here is wearing a mask, but the guy with virtually zero human contact is forced to. Fukkin nuts.

    Honestly I think everyone should be wearing a mask, the fact that we're not is another govt failure to plan. Fukking stupid.
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    Originally Posted by katya422 View Post
    This is a model being run on another forum using death data.

    https://www.ar15.com/media/mediafile...NG-1341163.JPG

    The guy running it is pretty damned pessimistic overall re:total death in the US. He sees R0 average as 4 with Italy getting their's down to about 2 with lock down measures.
    thats current data thats not a projection.
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    Originally Posted by AltarOfPlagues View Post
    thats current data thats not a projection.
    Sorry. That thread is massive and I haven't "saved" too much. This is a model tracking correlation of confirmed cases to deaths 15 days later.

    https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFile...AM-1339749.png

    Different poster puts these up. I know that the guy who does the first one has a predictive one too, just don't have it handy right now.

    The guy who puts up the cases/deaths correlation one also had one running re:case numbers increasing based on a couple of different possible tracks. He dropped the least bad track because the data was outpacing his worst track. Said that the model would fail to be usable at some point as he predicted that reporting/testing would break down. I think that one ran through the end of April.

    Both have agreed that the increase seemed to slow down the last day or two. Don't know if that is current or meaningful. Haven't tried to dive in over there yet today.
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    Originally Posted by katya422 View Post

    Both have agreed that the increase seemed to slow down the last day or two. Don't know if that is current or meaningful. Haven't tried to dive in over there yet today.
    yah literally everywhere for all disease. its not an exponential function its logisitc function

    it is not this.



    it is this.




    his y= formula is exponential so it only works for the first half of the epicurve at best.

    edit
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    Originally Posted by AltarOfPlagues View Post
    yah literally everywhere for all disease. its not an exponential function its logisitc function

    it is not this.



    it is this.

    Yes, bell shaped. I sincerely don't math very well myself. So I read around a lot and try to following the reasoning behind the model. Wish Wincel would have just engaged in "math education" and stayed out of the political/super doom mode. Since he says he tutors people you would think he would be capable of educating people in ELI5 style without getting PO'd and insulting.
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    I mean, it obviously can't be exponential forever because you can't have 400% of the population infected.
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    Originally Posted by waytoodeep03 View Post
    America is mobilizing the national guard.

    My brother received this email on this morning.
    negged.. national guard is controlled per state and cant be nationalized dumb azz good luck with your idiotic fear mongering spread.

    Originally Posted by Johnez View Post
    ^Looks legit.

    Such grammar. Much vocabulary.

    Just lol. "Evoke"

    Negged. Fuk, on spread broski!
    same ghahahaha

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