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  1. #961
    6'2" 227 soaponarope1's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by SeymourGains View Post
    oops sorry, i took someones word for it on facebook without looking in to it. He must have mixed the total worldwide with just italy

    Deleted post
    Ignoring the incorrect numbers in your post, Italy is the 3rd largest country by population, so expecting other European countries to see similar numbers of deaths as you stated is wild speculation.

    Currently the mortality rate is 0.7% among confirmed cases outside of China according to WHO. Nearly nobody has been tested, it's probably safe to assume our count of cases is incredibly inaccurate. If we're off by 50%, the death rate falls to 0.35%.

    Am I advocating that people go about their regular lives? No, but if you're young and healthy you should practice caution and hygiene in order to prevent spread to vulnerable portions of the population, not so much because your own health is really at risk. FWIW I'm voluntarily working from home and minimizing social contact, I've got a young kid and while data says not to worry it's better to be safe. Was I single and living alone I'd continue regular life but avoid places where vulnerable people would be present.

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    Aware since 2004 Witrebel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    Currently the mortality rate is 0.7% among confirmed cases outside of China according to WHO. Nearly nobody has been tested, it's probably safe to assume our count of cases is incredibly inaccurate. If we're off by 50%, the death rate falls to 0.35%.
    Source? And definition of mortality rate in the context of the report? Like an actual link to the report, this doesn’t line up with what I’ve been seeing.
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    6'2" 227 soaponarope1's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    Source? And definition of mortality rate in the context of the report? Like an actual link to the report, this doesn’t line up with what I’ve been seeing.
    It's the COVID19 situation report from March 6th released by the WHO. I have it in a pdf and I'm not smart enough to attach it. It's 5 days out of date, but has 17,481 reported cases tallied and 335 deaths in 88 countries/territories. That's actually lower than .7%, but it's also a long report and I'm not going to read the whole thing. The fatality rate in china outside of the Hubei province (where the initial outbreak occurred) is documented at .7 as well.

    Here's more from South Korea, a country that has done more extensive testing than any other

    With 6,767 confirmed cases as of late Friday, South Korea has more coronavirus patients than any country besides China. That high number may in part be a function of the country’s sweeping testing program that involved tens of thousands of people. When balanced against the country’s 44 deaths, the case-fatality ratio is less than 0.7%.

    That figure may offer a better sense of COVID-19’s true fatality rate, said Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston and an instructor at Harvard Medical School.


    “By testing so many people, they were actually able to find more cases,” Faust said. “It means they noticed the disease was everywhere, and it doesn’t kill that many people.

    Also, Italy is not a good representation of the rest of the world, especially the United States. Italy's population averages 45 years old whereas the United States averages 38. Obviously a much larger portion of Italy's population is much older and in the risky categories.
    Last edited by soaponarope1; 03-12-2020 at 06:23 AM.

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    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    Was I single and living alone I'd continue regular life but avoid places where vulnerable people would be present.
    Sadly that is not so easy with the current mood in the general populous. I just swung by the local store at lunch to grab a handful of items, and the place was rammed worse than at Christmas. The panic is real.
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    6'2" 227 soaponarope1's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Benjinkan View Post
    Sadly that is not so easy with the current mood in the general populous. I just swung by the local store at lunch to grab a handful of items, and the place was rammed worse than at Christmas. The panic is real.
    It is actually. I did my food shopping for a 2 week period last Saturday 7am. You went to the store at midday on a day when many places are shutting down and sending employees home.

    That isn't practicing common sense. Go to your local grocery store nice and early, before all the general public (made up of 50% idiots) go. You'll have a regular shopping experience and be able to purchase things stocked the night before after closing.

    I don't go beer shopping on the morning of super bowl Sunday and expect a good selection, why would I go the day many universities shut down and expect anything but panic from people who, in general, aren't mathematically capable enough to figure out how to do their own taxes?

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    Why are crowds still gathering if the virus is running so rampant?

    I just saw the new york stock exchange and nothing but a large crowd.

    Even the NCAA games are not cancelled today and those will be full of fans.


    So what is the real deal here? Why are they not taking heed with the crowd control?

    Is it stubborness or what?
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  7. #967
    Aware since 2004 Witrebel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    It's the COVID19 situation report from March 6th released by the WHO. I have it in a pdf and I'm not smart enough to attach it. It's 5 days out of date, but has 17,481 reported cases tallied and 335 deaths in 88 countries/territories. That's actually lower than .7%, but it's also a long report and I'm not going to read the whole thing. The fatality rate in china outside of the Hubei province (where the initial outbreak occurred) is documented at .7 as well.

    Here's more from South Korea, a country that has done more extensive testing than any other




    Also, Italy is not a good representation of the rest of the world, especially the United States. Italy's population averages 45 years old whereas the United States averages 38. Obviously a much larger portion of Italy's population is much older and in the risky categories.
    Open case count / deaths does not give you mortality rate. You can only calculate an accurate CFR from a batch of fully resolved cases. The global CFR from WHO is 3.4%.

    Although SK is doing many things right, the reports I’ve read have put the number of truly asymptomatic cases very low. I was banking on the idea of many many cases just slipping under the radar and skewing our statistics but that’s just not the reality that is playing out worldwide. It’s logical, just not something that is materializing in a significant way.
    Last edited by Witrebel; 03-12-2020 at 06:44 AM.
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    6'2" 227 soaponarope1's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    Open case count / deaths does not give you mortality rate. You can only calculate an accurate CFR from a batch of fully resolved cases. The published CFR from WHO is 3.4%.

    Although SK is doing many things right, the reports I’ve read have put the number of truly asymptomatic cases very low. I was banking on the idea of many many cases just slipping under the radar and skewing our statistics but that’s just not the reality that is playing out worldwide. It’s logical, just not something that is materializing in a significant way.
    Sure, you've got a compelling argument.

    If you really believe all worldwide cases have been counted accurately and 3.5% of all infected people are dying, go right ahead.

    Meanwhile, in reality the cases are under reported and unless you're a 75 year old recovering from chemo you are not at risk. Practice common sense, hygiene and caution, and a healthy individual will have much less than a 0.7% chance of dying when it all shakes out.

    People ITT are obviously invested in seeing a terrible pandemic, so I won't derail your rumor/speculation train anymore other than dropping this quote from the WHO director general

    As the Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom, explained in his February 28 briefing, “Most people will have mild disease and get better without needing any special care.” Several studies have found that about 80% of all the COVID-19 cases have relatively minor symptoms which end without severe illness and therefore remain unreported.
    Go ahead back to your panic.

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    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    It is actually. I did my food shopping for a 2 week period last Saturday 7am. You went to the store at midday on a day when many places are shutting down and sending employees home.
    I concede that it was lunch time, but there is no shut down here... yet. The point is normally I can be in and out in 10 minutes, if I want to do that now, I have to pick a less convenient time to visit... ergo, I can't just go about my normal life as if nothing is happening.
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    Imo, the death rate will be determine by how full the hospitals get

    Based on Americans not taking this serious enough, I predict we will be closer to 3% than south Korea’s .5%.
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    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    It's the COVID19 situation report from March 6th released by the WHO. I have it in a pdf and I'm not smart enough to attach it. It's 5 days out of date, but has 17,481 reported cases tallied and 335 deaths in 88 countries/territories. That's actually lower than .7%, but it's also a long report and I'm not going to read the whole thing. The fatality rate in china outside of the Hubei province (where the initial outbreak occurred) is documented at .7 as well.
    If you can put it up somewhere, I'd like to see it.

    I'm curious what percentage presented in severe/critical condition as opposed to mild symptoms, from an international dataset. In China it was about 80/20.
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    Aware since 2004 Witrebel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by ANumber1 View Post
    If you can put it up somewhere, I'd like to see it.

    I'm curious what percentage presented in severe/critical condition as opposed to mild symptoms, from an international dataset. In China it was about 80/20.
    Here is a link to the transcript of Tedros stating 3.4% https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/deta...--3-march-2020

    Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.
    - Director-General of the WHO, Tedros Adhanom
    Here is a link to the March 6 Sitrep. https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=96b04adf_4

    All sitreps can be found here. https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...uation-reports

    I'm trying to find the source, I think Trinnie may have already posted it a while back, but from memory I believe its only like 2% of cases that are purely asymptomatic during the full course of infection. Many cases start mild enough to be called asymptomatic but progress to symptomatic.

    I don't think the breakdown data is out yet, most of those numbers stem from the Chinese CDC report that went out with a sample size of like 72,000 or so. I would imagine most places with significant datasets are in triage/survival mode right now in terms of health professionals. Maybe we will see some data from SK soon though?
    Last edited by Witrebel; 03-12-2020 at 07:00 AM.
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    I don’t trust Chinese numbers. Right now SK’s CFR is 0.83%. I have been self tracking their CFR and it is trending up. 10 days ago it was 0.62%. This is because even though they have not been getting many new cases, their active cases are still high since most have not recovered and do not have an outcome.
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    Originally Posted by TrinnieBuu View Post
    I don’t trust Chinese numbers. Right now SK’s CFR is 0.83%. I have been self tracking their CFR and it is trending up. 10 days ago it was 0.62%. This is because even though they have not been getting many new cases, their active cases are still high since most have not recovered and do not have an outcome.
    they tested way more per capita. both numbers are believable

    if 100 people have it and you test 100 and one of them dies, theres 1% cfr

    if 100 people have it and you test 50 and one of them dies, theres 2% cfr

    i think cfr will exceed 5% here bc comorbidity and age of population. and obv lack of testing.
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    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    Sure, you've got a compelling argument.

    If you really believe all worldwide cases have been counted accurately and 3.5% of all infected people are dying, go right ahead.

    Meanwhile, in reality the cases are under reported and unless you're a 75 year old recovering from chemo you are not at risk. Practice common sense, hygiene and caution, and a healthy individual will have much less than a 0.7% chance of dying when it all shakes out.

    People ITT are obviously invested in seeing a terrible pandemic, so I won't derail your rumor/speculation train anymore other than dropping this quote from the WHO director general



    Go ahead back to your panic.
    But even if you don't die if you go to ICU for a couple of weeks like a lot of people that's still a very big deal.
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    Aware since 2004 Witrebel's Avatar
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    Anyone who is following this stuff and trying to be accurate scientific really needs to think long and hard about the way you are calculating mortality rate.

    This illness has proven to have a course of 2-3 weeks for severe cases. You can't compare open cases numbers to current death totals as if the severe cases in progress are all sure to be recoveries. Without a study tracking a block of cases from onset all the way to recovery or death for all cases, the numbers we come up with are just guesses.

    Then you compound this uncertainty with the health care capacity variable. Cases from early on in an outbreak likely had complete access to healthcare. The CFR is certainly different if you remove availability of sufficient O2 support from the equation.

    Edit missed your post:
    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    Sure, you've got a compelling argument.

    If you really believe all worldwide cases have been counted accurately and 3.5% of all infected people are dying, go right ahead.

    Meanwhile, in reality the cases are under reported and unless you're a 75 year old recovering from chemo you are not at risk. Practice common sense, hygiene and caution, and a healthy individual will have much less than a 0.7% chance of dying when it all shakes out.

    People ITT are obviously invested in seeing a terrible pandemic, so I won't derail your rumor/speculation train anymore other than dropping this quote from the WHO director general



    Go ahead back to your panic.
    I do not believe we have counted all cases accurately. But I do not believe that we are fully 50% off either. I do not believe we are capturing all the deaths that can be attributed to COVID-19, which will offset the impact of uncounted recoveries.

    No one wants a terrible pandemic. But at the same time, 80% of cases being mild does not mean what you think it means. WHO defines mild as "not needing oxygen support/therapy". So it can range from a "mild cough" to "the worst flu you've ever had but didn't need to be hospitalized for". That's not something to just take lightly. Especially considering this is known to spread faster than the flu.

    Please realize there is middle ground between "this is the end of the world" and "this is just the flu". For example as ANumber1 alluded to above, the number of severe/critical cases and the age breakdown matter. There is a reason Italy is already capping who they let into the ICU. There are people in their 40's needing ventilators. There aren't enough ventilators. That's a serious problem. There is more to this illness than just the mortality rate.
    Last edited by Witrebel; 03-12-2020 at 07:44 AM.
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    Originally Posted by jtaylor2010 View Post
    Make sure you’re wiping down those phones boyos



    https://www.google.com/amp/s/qz.com/...pple-says/amp/


    “Using a 70 percent isopropyl alcohol wipe or Clorox Disinfecting Wipes, you may gently wipe the hard, nonporous surfaces of your Apple product, such as the display, keyboard, or other exterior surfaces,” Apple says.
    Haven't seen Android mention whether or not their phones follow suit.... I've been using Clorox wipes on mine, but prob gonna switch to alcohol
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    Boyos the number one enemy of the Coronavirus is soap, even regular cheap af soap. Just wash your hands like an obsessive compulsive freak and you are gonna be ok.

    Soap is once again the MVP.
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    Originally Posted by GlennQuagmire View Post
    Boyos the number one enemy of the Coronavirus is soap, even regular cheap af soap. Just wash your hands like an obsessive compulsive freak and you are gonna be ok.

    Soap is once again the MVP.
    The virus is airborne, it can be transmitted just through breathing.

    So, social distancing is also important to slow the spread.
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    chinas clean s-curve

    the spike is in the increased test protocols.



    if that looks like a 3rd of the population infected to you, you had the same maths teacher as brian williams.
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    Originally Posted by BetaAsPhuck View Post
    The virus is airborne, it can be transmitted just through breathing.

    So, social distancing is also important to slow the spread.
    Of course, I was talking when you get back home.
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    Originally Posted by GlennQuagmire View Post
    Boyos the number one enemy of the Coronavirus is soap, even regular cheap af soap. Just wash your hands like an obsessive compulsive freak and you are gonna be ok.

    Soap is once again the MVP.
    I suspect that with the relatively long lifespan on surfaces compared to influenza, incidental cross-contamination is what's causing a lot of the spread. Added my phone, keys, Fitbit, luggage, and headset to my cleaning regimen while I was traveling, and went around and hit my light switches, doorknobs, and various handles when I got home. There's a lot of gross chit we touch all day without thinking about it right after we wash our hands.
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    So they estimate 30-70% of Americans will get it. That's insane
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    Originally Posted by GlennQuagmire View Post
    Boyos the number one enemy of the Coronavirus is soap, even regular cheap af soap. Just wash your hands like an obsessive compulsive freak and you are gonna be ok.

    Soap is once again the MVP.
    This. People saying "wash your hands" are doing so because soap kills the virus.
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    Originally Posted by theACEofSPADES View Post
    So they estimate 30-70% of Americans will get it. That's insane
    it is insane, mathematically retarded, and not grounded in any data whatsoever. it appears to be completely made up.

    that infection rate could only come from this pathogen if the whole of the american public met in kansas and had an orgy.


    example: italy might spike to 10,000 infection in a single day

    in order to infect one third of italians, you need to AVERAGE 476,190 infections per DAY for the next 6 weeks.

    its quite retarded.
    Last edited by AltarOfPlagues; 03-12-2020 at 08:29 AM.
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    Originally Posted by theACEofSPADES View Post
    So they estimate 30-70% of Americans will get it. That's insane
    There's just no way I can believe that.

    Nowhere even remotely close to that number has been reached even globally yet. lol

    Even 35% would be ~100,000,000 people. (Just mathing off the top my head.)

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    Originally Posted by AltarOfPlagues View Post
    chinas clean s-curve

    the spike is in the increased test protocols.



    if that looks like a 3rd of the population infected to you, you had the same maths teacher as brian williams.
    Originally Posted by AltarOfPlagues View Post
    it is insane, mathematically retarded, and not grounded in any data whatsoever. it appears to be completely made up.

    that infection rate could only come from this pathogen if the whole of the american public met in kansas and had an orgy.
    Eh. Slow down for a second. Are you suggesting that the US will take the same draconian measures China did? We are already past the case count when they locked down Wuhan. So in a week or so we will have multiple cities that are at the same per city case count as Wuhan. Do you see us spraying bleach in the streets? Welding apartment doors shut? Locking down entire cities and provinces and forcing farmers to abandon crops and stop delivering their goods? Do you think we will admit that we have even close to the level of surveillance state that China had allowing phones to be used for compliance and case tracking, restricting freedom of movement etc?

    Because if we do all those things, and this is assuming China's numbers are correct, then sure we could probably emulate their numbers.

    If we DON'T do those things, then the part of the graph that looks exponential keeps going up, you keep reaching new orders of magnitude, and you do in fact hit millions infected. But you're probably right, I'm sure America will embrace the precedent set by the CCP.

    For example all we need to do is see our daily travel reduced in a similar fashion to China, and we will be just fine!
    Last edited by Witrebel; 03-12-2020 at 08:38 AM.
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    Originally Posted by AltarOfPlagues View Post
    it is insane, mathematically retarded, and not grounded in any data whatsoever. it appears to be completely made up.

    that infection rate could only come from this pathogen if the whole of the american public met in kansas and had an orgy.


    example: italy might spike to 10,000 infection in a single day

    in order to infect one third of italians, you need to AVERAGE 476,190 infections per DAY for the next 6 weeks.

    its quite retarded.

    Originally Posted by R3L3NTL3SS View Post
    There's just no way I can believe that.

    Nowhere even remotely close to that number has been reached even globally yet. lol

    Even 35% would be ~100,000,000 people.
    I agree with this....maybe that is their estimate by the time a vaccine comes out? But 30-70 is a HUGE difference. They should not be throwing out numbers like this. These kinds of predictions are what cause hysteria.
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    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    Because if we do all those things, and this is assuming China's numbers are correct, then sure we could probably emulate their numbers.

    If we DON'T do those things, then the part of the graph that looks exponential keeps going up, you keep reaching new orders of magnitude, and you do in fact hit millions infected. But you're probably right, I'm sure America will embrace the precedent set by the CCP.
    im not gonna slow down

    hubei province was late to the party and was arguably 3 weeks balls deep before the lockdown. because we are so free im guessing we will do wuhan and italy infection numbers, give or take, and italy cfr.


    communism aside does downtown wuhan look like a paragon of cleanliness to you?
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