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  1. #5971
    Zen MEDITATE's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by RubberBandMang View Post
    Damn, Boris is in the ICU now
    That suck
    May all my children be boys ...Amen 🙏🏾🙏🏾🙏🏾

  2. #5972
    We know lol Farley1324's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by io31 View Post
    As far as I understand it they use a fit function , which assumes that the reproductive number goes down with different social distancing measures ... and it stays down. In other words they don't consider the easing of the lockdown at all. In the beginning there is section explaining that this is intended as a planning aid for states/administrators so it is understandable that they were more interested in the peak numbers rather than the tail end of the curves. Here is the full paper but the sections that exlpain the modelling methodology are not exactly written for the layman it seems.
    Yeah the modelling stuff gets too complex for me to try to understand (for fear I will waste time being unable to).

    Your explanation makes sense, except then why headline it with a prediction for a YTD total by August if they stop adding to that YTD total, really, on May 31? Wouldn't bother me as much if they changed the way they present this "by August" number.

    Granted, predicting a number for even two months from now has got to be nearly impossible, let alone four months out
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  3. #5973
    Clit Commander alphagorilla's Avatar
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  4. #5974
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    Originally Posted by alphagorilla View Post
    Are they literally trying to get their sh#t pushed in?

  5. #5975
    Is a Czechnologist. R3L3NTL3SS's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by HairyWBush View Post
    it doesn't matter. Trump has much BIGGER threats to worry about right now. this guy right here
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1246965704177451009
    Not sure if srs or joking. The only person Biden is a threat to is himself. Old, senile, and absolutely 100% ****ing retarded.

  6. #5976
    Registered User Johnez's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by alphagorilla View Post
    1. Start pandemic
    2. Take donations
    3. Sell donations back
    4. ???
    5. Profit.

    Perfect plan.
    Virtue is its own reward.
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  7. #5977
    Registered User io31's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    Your explanation makes sense, except then why headline it with a prediction for a YTD total by August if they stop adding to that YTD total, really, on May 31? Wouldn't bother me as much if they changed the way they present this "by August" number.
    Well, yeah, they should maybe explicitly state that it assumes that the lockdown stays in place until the last person with the virus either dies or recovers. At low case numbers, the uncertainty in reproductive number becomes much more important too. I bet if you get a super spreader towards the end, it would prolong the tail a lot. I do numerical modeling (not statistical, so I am really not qualified) for part of my work and it looks like the maxim "all models are wrong but some are useful" also applies in this field.

  8. #5978
    Registered User fishnbrah's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Johnez View Post
    What a disaster. Before all this I was prepared to vote Trump.
    aware me on what trump did recently to upset you

  9. #5979
    Registered User chalup's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    Okay.

    A later post



    We're probably past 10,000 right now this minute...FWIW.


    This is the kind of "information" spread I oppose. It's dangerous, for everybody
    You have never actually taken a position as far as I can tell. You just tear down any post you disagree with, without ever stating what you believe. That way you are never wrong, and can always point out when you are right. It's pretty fukking annoying when you post good information along with it. Position as far as how long these quarantines should last, how many people will die this year, what to do with the economy, etc.
    I was always looking at the finger pointing at
    the moon. Now I'm just looking at the moon.
    And theres no me looking. Theres just looking.

  10. #5980
    Registered User TugOfPeace's Avatar
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    What in the fuk. Woke up this morning as normal, had breakfast, started work, then 2 hours later started noticing body aches. Felt off. Previous night I worked out chest/triceps/neck so I felt some aches in my neck/forearm/leg. Chalked it up to only getting 5-6 hours of sleep and fapping.

    Popped 2 tylenol and 1g of vitamin C, then took at 3.5 hour nap. During sleep I was a bit cold but not shivering yet, and it felt just like an incoming fever. Checked my temp halfway into napping and I was hotter than normal. Woke up completely normal/rested/cool.

    I'm starting to wonder if I was contaminated from those fuking cinnamon rolls.. had no idea touching something that was contaminated then touching my food could give me the virus, if it did.

    Maybe I'm just paranoid. Feels fine right now.

  11. #5981
    We know lol Farley1324's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by chalup View Post
    You have never actually taken a position as far as I can tell. You just tear down any post you disagree with, without ever stating what you believe. That way you are never wrong, and can always point out when you are right. It's pretty fukking annoying when you post good information along with it. Position as far as how long these quarantines should last, how many people will die this year, what to do with the economy, etc.
    I have, many times. I just quoted, with bold, where I did. Scroll up and look for it. RE: CFR prediction of "at least 0.5%" (at least 5x higher than annual influenza which is given generally as 0.1 or less than 0.1) made as far back as March 17

    Heck, here is a link to it (even though it's on this very page)
    https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showt...post1601799801

    I also took you up on your ban bet (twice, both of which you lost).

    I also told you we were still going to see numbers trending up when you went ape crap saying they were going down because for one day they went down. Guess what, they have been trending up strong since.


    But thank you for admitting I'm never wrong.
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  12. #5982
    Goof loving Jared HockeyBacon18's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by 5x10 View Post
    i didn’t mention any of that

    I said other nations have shown some positive results before trump ever mentioned it
    India, one of the largest producers of HCQ in the world, has banned the exportation of it and is requiring all medical personnel to take it along with all family members of the infected
    Why would india do that?

    I honestly wish trump wouldn’t have ever mentioned it, probably wouldn’t be getting the hate that it is now as it’s become political.
    sorry brah, must of misinterpreted.

    I agree that if trump hadnt mentioned it, it wouldnt be going through the news cycle it is now.

    And i also agree that it will likely be a good preventive drug for mild to moderate cases. I also think it'll be used in combination for severe
    Keep mod discussions out of your sig line

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  13. #5983
    Registered User Brandon556211's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by alphagorilla View Post
    Thats not gangsta thats pure phaggoty. World needs to neg them IRL.
    #thotaudit crew

  14. #5984
    Registered User Johnez's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by fishnbrah View Post
    aware me on what trump did recently to upset you
    Not upset me. Just a series of decisions and rhetiric that I feel has been detrimental to this situation. Nothing personal. I normally totally ignore the rhetoric and look at the results.
    Virtue is its own reward.
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  15. #5985
    We know lol Farley1324's Avatar
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    Allstate to Return $600 Million in Auto Premiums as Pandemic Cuts Driving

    https://money.usnews.com/investing/n...c-cuts-driving


    U.S. insurer Allstate Corp said on Monday it would return more than $600 million in auto insurance premiums to customers as many Americans drive less due to "shelter-in-place" orders to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

    Most customers will receive a "payback" of 15% of their monthly premium in April and May, the company said.

    A smaller U.S. auto insurer, American Family Insurance, also said on Monday it would return a total of $200 million to auto insurance customers beginning in mid-April. Customers will receive $50 per vehicle covered by their policies, the Madison, Wisconsin-based company said.

    Progressive Insurance Corp is also "exploring how to best return some premium to customers to reflect the decreased exposure that comes with less frequent driving during the pandemic," a spokesman said in response to a query by Reuters. Progressive expects to have those plans in place soon, he said.

    "There are very few silver linings out there, but auto insurance companies are definitely one of them,” said Piper Sandler analyst Paul Newsome, referring to the coronavirus outbreak's impact on industries.

    Fewer accidents generally lead to a lower claim frequency, and Newsome expects insurance companies with large auto portfolios, such as Progressive , Travelers Companies Inc and Allstate, to post good first-quarter results.

    Allstate's payback, which will apply to 18 million policies issued by the company and its Esurance and Encompass units, follows a data analysis by the insurer of 23 million cars that showed driving mileage was down between 35% and 50% in most states, Allstate Chief Executive Officer Tom Wilson said during a call with reporters on Monday.

    The analysis is based partly on data that Allstate collects from tracking products that some customers agree to use in exchange for discounts, as well as other sources.

    Allstate's data showed no difference between states that had the shelter-in-place orders in effect and those that did not, Wilson said.

    Still, some people who remain on the roads are driving faster on what are now less-densely traveled roads, which could lead to more serious accidents, Wilson said.

    Next Insurance, a commercial insurer in Palo Alto, California that covers small businesses, also said on Monday that it would discount April commercial auto premiums by 25% because stay-at-home orders have reduced the insurer's risks.

    (Reporting by Suzanne Barlyn; Additional reporting by Tina Bellon; Editing by Steve Orlofsky and Marguerita Choy)

    Copyright 2020 Thomson Reuters.
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  16. #5986
    Duke of New York ANumber1's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    Allstate to Return $600 Million in Auto Premiums as Pandemic Cuts Driving


    "I'm the novel coronavirus, and I'm about to shut down a third of your national economy."

    Mayhem is everywhere.
    Last edited by ANumber1; 04-06-2020 at 02:36 PM.
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  17. #5987
    Registered User Johnez's Avatar
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    ^Aw fukkin ded lel
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  18. #5988
    Registered User chalup's Avatar
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    So my mom wants to retire at 70 which is in a yearish. She hates her job at this point. She is the type that never wanted to retire in the first place I think, she loves her job inside. We had the talk about it and us buying some land and building a couple of cabins and being done with it. I know she won't retire and will be testing for it up until she does. I basically told her lets see how the first month goes in testing it and go from there but you have no reason not to do it now. I thought she was holding out for an extra 500-800 but in reality it's about 80. At this point in my life I'm wearing gloves once a week I go to Kroger as well as the mask I was given. Tennessee looks to be doing good all around, and I'm super happy Nashville hasn't had a horrible breakout, Chattanooga is doing super good with 85 total. The next two weeks will be big for everyone in Tennessee but I think the locals for the most part took it serious. My first company is doing a re-asses on the 13th. I have no idea what it means but we will see. I hope everyone is handling it good. I cut our shrubs that I hand't touched in 3 years since moving in. It's weird what people focus on a time like this but I like it for the most part. On another note has anyone worked for a big corp that handled this like shiet? Jesus man some people I work with are STILL waiting on approval from TN because of the company.
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  19. #5989
    Misc King TheBateman's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by chalup View Post
    So my mom wants to retire at 70 which is in a yearish. She hates her job at this point. She is the type that never wanted to retire in the first place I think, she loves her job inside. We had the talk about it and us buying some land and building a couple of cabins and being done with it. I know she won't retire and will be testing for it up until she does. I basically told her lets see how the first month goes in testing it and go from there but you have no reason not to do it now. I thought she was holding out for an extra 500-800 but in reality it's about 80. At this point in my life I'm wearing gloves once a week I go to Kroger as well as the mask I was given. Tennessee looks to be doing good all around, and I'm super happy Nashville hasn't had a horrible breakout, Chattanooga is doing super good with 85 total. The next two weeks will be big for everyone in Tennessee but I think the locals for the most part took it serious. My first company is doing a re-asses on the 13th. I have no idea what it means but we will see. I hope everyone is handling it good. I cut our shrubs that I hand't touched in 3 years since moving in. It's weird what people focus on a time like this but I like it for the most part. On another note has anyone worked for a big corp that handled this like shiet? Jesus man some people I work with are STILL waiting on approval from TN because of the company.
    where in TN? is gatlinburg up and back to normal yet from the fires a few years ago?
    I guess if you're in the right area and your mom likes meeting people she could run a airbnb or bed and breakfast. loved the bed-and-breakfasts in the TN and KY area and it always seemed to have people coming around the year
    you come at the king, you best not miss

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    So my neighbor's dad who has covid-19 on top of stage 4 cancer and they went hospice like a week ago is expected, in the general NY area let's call it...neighbor decided he's going to go up there for the funeral. They got a burial plot and a 15 minute ceremony for up to 8 people in attendance. At least one of the expected attendees already tested positive as well. Don't know what neighbor will do to try to avoid getting it himself or how he'll handle quarantine returning home to family.

    Originally Posted by WeDoPullups View Post
    Can we block that retard Farley from posting? It’s pathetic how hard he’s trying to convince everyone of his doomsday dream especially now that it’s not coming to fruition
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    Originally Posted by TheBateman View Post
    where in TN? is gatlinburg up and back to normal yet from the fires a few years ago?
    I guess if you're in the right area and your mom likes meeting people she could run a airbnb or bed and breakfast. loved the bed-and-breakfasts in the TN and KY area and it always seemed to have people coming around the year
    My mom is in Chattanooga. Love it, grew up there. I live in Seymour and work in PF. We literally got over the fires 4 months ago, everything was looking up. Now the fires only really affected us for about 8 months(our winter season), and those little monsters got away with it. One of the gas stations I went to semi daily the lady literally said she isn't leaving her dogs and died with them. Such a sad state, and Gatlinburg not only dropped the ball they never had one to begin with. Thursday the 16th I did 1400 in sales as a server which is retarded numbers for a Thursday. We have a room where we were about to air bnb out here because we could get 80-100 a night since our person we rented the room to moved out. This was literally the worst time for us in PF because everyone is going on spring break. My job up in Gatlinburg which is new is the one that got my unemployment rolling which I was amazed and pissed about. They have like 20ish stores compared to my other job which has 100+ places worldwide.
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    Originally Posted by alphagorilla View Post

    big dingdong winnie the pooh is openly mocking the cucked west

    our greedy politicians and corporations will keep taking it

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    Originally Posted by dondadas View Post
    big dingdong winnie the pooh is openly mocking the cucked west

    our greedy politicians and corporations will keep taking it
    It really is time we stop dealing with china as much as we do. They are not ours or anyone's friend. Whether or not they let this **** spread by accident or on purpose, they will find a way to benefit from it so they can continue fulfilling their China First doctrine.
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    *"Is it in yet?" because micropenis crew*
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    Originally Posted by WeDoPullups View Post
    It really is time we stop dealing with china as much as we do. They are not ours or anyone's friend. Whether or not they let this **** spread by accident or on purpose, they will find a way to benefit from it so they can continue fulfilling their China First doctrine.
    It's going to be really difficult to stop buying "Made in China"

    Gotta try though.

    Also just for the sake of future logistics, something like this or war or embargo who TF knows what, it helps if you make your stuff in your own backyard, the more the better (there's the issue of raw materials though...China has a lot of cards there)
    This is not the end, no it’s not even the beginning of the end. But it is perhaps, the end of the beginning.

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    Originally Posted by ANumber1 View Post


    "I'm the novel coronavirus, and I'm about to shut down a third of your national economy."

    Mayhem is everywhere.
    Damn.... First trump bucks, now geico bucks. Making it rain boyos.
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    Originally Posted by WeDoPullups View Post
    It really is time we stop dealing with china as much as we do. They are not ours or anyone's friend. Whether or not they let this **** spread by accident or on purpose, they will find a way to benefit from it so they can continue fulfilling their China First doctrine.

    There is no avoiding war; it can only be postponed to the advantage of others.
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    Originally Posted by WeDoPullups View Post
    It really is time we stop dealing with china as much as we do. They are not ours or anyone's friend. Whether or not they let this **** spread by accident or on purpose, they will find a way to benefit from it so they can continue fulfilling their China First doctrine.
    How tho? there are no factories elsewhere to replace their produciton.

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    Originally Posted by ymer View Post
    How tho? there are no factories elsewhere to replace their produciton.
    Actually there are. Vietnam, Mexico, and other countries have been the beneficiary of some trade shifts lately, and it's likely they'll again benefit from the push to diversify supply chains going forward.

    But we should still build em.

    We could use the jobs. Golden opportunity for Trump really, there's absolutely noone who could stand in his way should he cut them off. Except himself of course, being he seems keen on preserving that trade deal. He's been mercurial in the past however, I hope he shelves that chit and really does place America first.
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    Just checking in here to remind everyone to stay at home, even if it sucks. I just finished a 14 hour shift at the hospital and I'm exhausted and I feel like collapsing right now. I'm a doctor working in a covid exclusive ward and I've literally been running around seeing patients the whole day. I've seen patients on NIV and high-flow oxygen crying because they can't breathe and feel like they're suffocating. The chest CTs and XRs I've seen today look like absolute **** and we've cordoned off our entire acute medical unit to accommodate these patients and they just keep coming in.

    Less than 3 weeks ago we our hospital only had 8 confirmed covid cases. Now that number is in the hundreds and currently we have 37 covid deaths. I'm going to be back the rest of the week for more consecutive long shifts and honestly don't know if I can make it. I haven't even seen the worst of it yet in ICU. It's demoralizing and insane how quickly this thing is escalating. I don't know what the situation is like in the US at the moment because I live in the UK but I can only ask everyone does their part to stop any further spread.

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    Trump says there's a **** load of new therapeutics being worked on. That sounds promising.

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