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  1. #6031
    We know lol Farley1324's Avatar
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    It's definitely still a cluster every which way. Just wish the media would push agendas and fan the flames to make it as bad as possible (which you know they wouldn't have done if it were 4 years ago...)

  2. #6032
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    IDK how I missed this until just now. April 6 update on worldometers includes

    "An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]

    A study by disease modelers at the University of Texas at Austin states that "Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we assume that 1 in 10 cases are tested and reported. If a county has detected only 1 case of COVID-19, there is a 51%
    chance that there is already a growing outbreak underway"

    [source]https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1246812081925619714"

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    I read that about the ones dying at home, Levine uses it for justification of possibly needing to use the parks as temporary body storage

    Here, he lists 200-215 per day
    https://twitter.com/marklevinenyc/st...221716480?s=21


    I think the only true way to get an idea of how much covid is killing is comparing monthly averages vs this month
    Much like The NY Times article on how italy has 5x the normal amount of deaths for march
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  4. #6034
    6'2" 227 soaponarope1's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    IDK how I missed this until just now. April 6 update on worldometers includes

    "An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]

    A study by disease modelers at the University of Texas at Austin states that "Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we assume that 1 in 10 cases are tested and reported. If a county has detected only 1 case of COVID-19, there is a 51%
    chance that there is already a growing outbreak underway"

    [source]https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1246812081925619714"
    This is obvious, as 80% of cases are asymptomatic or so mild that the infected person doesn't care. There are a few serious cases missed, but many, many more that don't affect anyone. This is why the real fatality rate is going to be lowered again and again until it settles close to what the many other diseases would be without the presence of vaccines and prior knowledge of it (ie... people stay home when they have it).

    Lots of these deaths are people in nursing homes or very close to death, the same groups that die from most illnesses. The difference is you don't visit a nursing home if you know that you have an illness.

    I'd wager this virus is pretty much everywhere and a good portion of the population has gotten it and recovered. The healthcare system in the US noted unusually high levels of flu like illnesses for a while this flu season, likely linked to this.

  5. #6035
    We know lol Farley1324's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    This is obvious, as 80% of cases are asymptomatic or so mild that the infected person doesn't care. There are a few serious cases missed, but many, many more that don't affect anyone. This is why the real fatality rate is going to be lowered again and again until it settles close to what the many other diseases would be without the presence of vaccines and prior knowledge of it (ie... people stay home when they have it).

    Lots of these deaths are people in nursing homes or very close to death, the same groups that die from most illnesses. The difference is you don't visit a nursing home if you know that you have an illness.

    I'd wager this virus is pretty much everywhere and a good portion of the population has gotten it and recovered. The healthcare system in the US noted unusually high levels of flu like illnesses for a while this flu season, likely linked to this.
    Mild symptoms does not mean asymptomatic and does not mean the person doesn't care.

    What is the CFR as we best understand it now and what do you think it will finalize at?

  6. #6036
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    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    This is obvious, as 80% of cases are asymptomatic or so mild that the infected person doesn't care. There are a few serious cases missed, but many, many more that don't affect anyone. This is why the real fatality rate is going to be lowered again and again until it settles close to what the many other diseases would be without the presence of vaccines and prior knowledge of it (ie... people stay home when they have it).

    Lots of these deaths are people in nursing homes or very close to death, the same groups that die from most illnesses. The difference is you don't visit a nursing home if you know that you have an illness.

    I'd wager this virus is pretty much everywhere and a good portion of the population has gotten it and recovered. The healthcare system in the US noted unusually high levels of flu like illnesses for a while this flu season, likely linked to this.
    Again though, if the virus had been here so widespread and for so long already, why are hospitals only now getting so busy? Doesn't make sense.

  7. #6037
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    Italy scheduled to reopen in 2 weeks ?

  8. #6038
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    Originally Posted by stevesteve12 View Post
    Italy scheduled to reopen in 2 weeks ?
    Looking back, it appears you can draw a downward trend line for daily new cases from March 26 for sure and maybe kinda from March 21. Another two weeks...that seems reasonable looking at that. They have to get back out sometime, they "went in" awhile before anywhere in the US did, another two weeks...that's a long time.

    Their number of active cases is still currently rising though (slower than it was, but, rising nonetheless), hopefully that changes by two weeks from now?


    Edit:
    https://www.ansa.it/sito/notizie/cro...92caef4c9.html

    Italy plans to start large scale testing for antibodies to put people who have an acquired immunity to it back to work first, it sounds like
    Last edited by Farley1324; 04-06-2020 at 07:16 PM.

  9. #6039
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    Wow, Navy Secretary that fired Capt. Crozier apologizes, Trump looking into the situation. Must have been a helluva backlash.
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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post


    Edit:
    https://www.ansa.it/sito/notizie/cro...92caef4c9.html

    Italy plans to start large scale testing for antibodies to put people who have an acquired immunity to it back to work first, it sounds like
    There some sort of proof there actually is immunity?
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  11. #6041
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    Originally Posted by Johnez View Post
    Wow, Navy Secretary that fired Capt. Crozier apologizes, Trump looking into the situation. Must have been a helluva backlash.
    Pretty idiotic way to go about whatever the hell he was trying to do. He said the captain was either too naive or stupid to think that his method of communication would get to the public and got canned for it. Then he turned around and gave a boneheaded speech that he should have known would get recorded and distributed.

    Should have just left it at "I know you loved your captain . . . but you cannot go outside the chain of command like he did and it put resources and the nation's security at risk. Cannot be allowed and so he was relieved."
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  12. #6042
    We know lol Farley1324's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Johnez View Post
    There some sort of proof there actually is immunity?
    Not that I know of, explicitly. But that's the way it tends to work with viruses. You catch it, you get over it, you have antibodies, they make you immune, at least to the strain, at least for some period of time (possibly a very long time).

  13. #6043
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    Originally Posted by taf1968 View Post
    Pretty idiotic way to go about whatever the hell he was trying to do. He said the captain was either too naive or stupid to think that his method of communication would get to the public and got canned for it. Then he turned around and gave a boneheaded speech that he should have known would get recorded and distributed
    Not to mention the less-than-subtle implication that the crew was too stupid to figure out when they were being embarrassed or betrayed and needed him to let them know.

    I don't know how Modly could possibly bounce back from this, especially after taking all of an hour to go from "I stand by every word and it came from the heart" to this.

    The coronavirus claims another fatality: the credibility of the Secretary of the Navy has died after several days on a ventilator.

    EDIT: Public affairs also took the time to email officers of the TR and ask them to please stop the crew from recording embarrassing things that would leak to the media. Naturally, this instantly leaked.

    Last edited by ANumber1; 04-06-2020 at 08:17 PM.
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  14. #6044
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    Anyone else think we'll be out of this forced quarantine by May?

    Even if the doom and gloomers are right and this won't end for the foreseeable future, people will stop seeing a point of a prolonged lockdown & won't believe hiding from a virus everyone has or will get for much longer is even worth it.

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    Originally Posted by 128 View Post
    Anyone else think we'll be out of this forced quarantine by May?

    Even if the doom and gloomers are right and this won't end for the foreseeable future, people will stop seeing a point of a prolonged lockdown & won't believe hiding from a virus everyone has or will get for much longer is even worth it.
    Depends on your state, county, city.

    Many should start to open things up (step by step probably) by the start of May. There are sure to be new behaviors and social norms, of course.

    This, meaning infections of and deaths from sars-cov-2, won't "end" in that kind of timeframe, or even close. But, you know, that curve thing, it should tail down. Social distancing is all about getting through the spike in the curve. That part has already begun. Get through the spike, the mountain, the hill, whatever it will look like, start down the other side, start to open back up. And have a much lower risk of a wave of infections since there will be a LOT more people then, than the last few weeks, who have acquired immunity. Kinda been the plan from square one.

  16. #6046
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    Originally Posted by 128 View Post
    Anyone else think we'll be out of this forced quarantine by May?

    Even if the doom and gloomers are right and this won't end for the foreseeable future, people will stop seeing a point of a prolonged lockdown & won't believe hiding from a virus everyone has or will get for much longer is even worth it.
    "Sooner than expected!" According to Trump. We'll see. New cases on the downtrend, I believe we just hit our second day of fewer cases (from peak). Hopefully we don't get another outbreak (Florida....).
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  18. #6048
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    Originally Posted by Johnez View Post
    "Sooner than expected!" According to Trump. We'll see. New cases on the downtrend, I believe we just hit our second day of fewer cases (from peak). Hopefully we don't get another outbreak (Florida....).
    Today (4/6) was higher death (1,255) and higher new cases (30,331) than yesterday (4/5)

    Can't call peak based on a single day. Have to wait and see longer trends. This is almost surely not a peak yet.

    And Trump isn't making those calls, the governors and mayors etc are. He can recommend and they can put out guidelines, but the final say has been (rightfully) to the states.

    So, it'll vary. I'm sure some states will go wide open a lot sooner than others...mostly depending on the large cities (or lack of)

  19. #6049
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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    Depends on your state, county, city.

    Many should start to open things up (step by step probably) by the start of May. There are sure to be new behaviors and social norms, of course.

    This, meaning infections of and deaths from sars-cov-2, won't "end" in that kind of timeframe, or even close. But, you know, that curve thing, it should tail down. Social distancing is all about getting through the spike in the curve. That part has already begun. Get through the spike, the mountain, the hill, whatever it will look like, start down the other side, start to open back up. And have a much lower risk of a wave of infections since there will be a LOT more people then, than the last few weeks, who have acquired immunity. Kinda been the plan from square one.
    Originally Posted by Johnez View Post
    "Sooner than expected!" According to Trump. We'll see. New cases on the downtrend, I believe we just hit our second day of fewer cases (from peak). Hopefully we don't get another outbreak (Florida....).
    Thanks I knew we were just about reaching the peak but seeing all this news pop up now about "no end in sight" "only getting worse" makes me think we'd open up either way if self quarantining doesn't look effective enough to warrant it going any further.

    Hopefully hospitals won't be overwhelmed by any new cases come that time.

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    We know lol Farley1324's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by 128 View Post
    Thanks I knew we were just about reaching the peak but seeing all this news pop up now about "no end in sight" "only getting worse" makes me think we'd open up either way if self quarantining doesn't look effective enough to warrant it going any further.

    Hopefully hospitals won't be overwhelmed by any new cases come that time.
    Possibly different cities, states, regions, will 'peak' at different times and healthcare workers who are energizer bunnies and want to rake in the dough can move around? Heard NYC is offering real figure$ for folks to come in this past week for example.

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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    Possibly different cities, states, regions, will 'peak' at different times and healthcare workers who are energizer bunnies and want to rake in the dough can move around? Heard NYC is offering real figure$ for folks to come in this past week for example.
    I get the feeling the certain states aren't taking it as seriously as the busy states with big concentrated cities.

    I hope we just quarantine ourselves from them when their cases rise instead of waiting for their wave to come and go:



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    Originally Posted by 128 View Post
    I get the feeling the certain states aren't taking it as seriously as the busy states with big concentrated cities.

    I hope we just quarantine ourselves from them when their cases rise instead of waiting for their wave to come and go:

    oh lawd

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    Software brahs will get a kick out of this ...

    New Jersey needs volunteers who know COBOL, a 60-year-old programming language

    New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy says that the state is looking for volunteers with skills that can be used to help in the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, and one of those skills is knowing your way around a 61-year-old programming language used on big, old, mainframe computers.

    ...

    New Jersey needs COBOL programmers because many of the state’s systems use older mainframes, and those systems are now seeing record demand for services as the coronavirus outbreak disrupts the economy.

    For example, an unprecedented 362,000 people have applied for unemployment in New Jersey as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, and the state’s IT department is working to have the 40-year-old mainframes that power that service up and running, New Jersey’s commissioner of labor Rob Asaro-Angelo said on Saturday.

    ...
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/new-...nt-system.html

    At least it's not PHP

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    Originally Posted by bov188 View Post
    Software brahs will get a kick out of this ...

    New Jersey needs volunteers who know COBOL, a 60-year-old programming language



    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/new-...nt-system.html

    At least it's not PHP
    Why don't governments update their ****? Sites are always broken and dated as well.

    This is why people don't want them in charge of everything cause they have little incentive to improve or innovate.

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    Originally Posted by bov188 View Post
    Software brahs will get a kick out of this ...

    New Jersey needs volunteers who know COBOL, a 60-year-old programming language

    At least it's not PHP
    Ouch brah... Ouch.
    Make America Great Again.

    "Dig with your hands, not with your mouths"

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    Some interesting developments https://youtu.be/cNDE12HymYc

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    Does anyone have a collection of the most robust scientific evidence that this is not a bioweapon?

    The CT'ers are at it in the other thread and are simply not amenable to reason. Any contention of their pet theories and you're either a shill or "in on it" somehow. Wondering if we could just blast them with undeniable evidence, or if it's best to just leave them to their own devices.
    Back off, Warchild.

    Seriously.

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    Originally Posted by ss367 View Post
    i have tons to say about these idiots.... but im going to sound like a fukcing pos trash racist......so im going to hold my peace
    May all my children be boys ...Amen 🙏🏾🙏🏾🙏🏾

  30. #6060
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    Originally Posted by ss367 View Post
    Fuking animals.
    Fuk her right in the pussy.

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