☣️🦠☣️🦠 Coronavirus (COVID-19) Information Thread 🦠☣️🦠☣️

[Farley1324]

Lol. The rest of the posters seem to agree with my straw man.

Pretty much every post you make in this thread is a pessimistic doom and gloom story. I get that you think the virus is hiding behind every tree and in every shadow to get you.

My more optimistic view that the fatality rate would settle at or below 0.7% which you seemed ready to argue to the death over seems to be coming true at a much higher likelihood than your 3.4% cfr infecting everyone exponentially. Still prepared to eat crow if we have 238,000,000 deaths when it has a 3.4% worldwide death rate though.

Feel free to quote my posts that you have found to be incorrect (rather than straw man)

BTW: 0.7% would be ~7 times deadlier than seasonal flu.

[Farley1324]

Japan is about to declare a state of emergency

What changed over there? I hadn't heard boo about them until this just the last day or so

[TheBateman]

Japan is about to declare a state of emergency

can't help but think they're really really late with that. they postponed the olympics so late so who knows how many tests they were suppressing or writing off actual covid patients as flu

[R3L3NTL3SS]

India has allowed the export of Hydroxychloroquine to the United States, making an exception to its earlier ban on exports to keep supply for themselves.

"The decision follows a telephone conversation between Trump and PM Modi on Saturday"

https://twitter.com/michaelcoudrey/s...593391616?s=21

Lmao damn. Would love to know how that conversation transpired.

[topperstyle]

That's fair

My personality is more of "I don't care about your feels I care about what's correct and what's not" (and I expect the same in return, tis two way street) and it shows

It doesn't work optimally when the other people in the conversation have more of the 'it's about how the conversation feels as much as the data' going on. Which is probably the majority of people. Honey, vinegar...all that junk

Edgy

[Farley1324]

Lol. The rest of the posters seem to agree with my straw man.

Pretty much every post you make in this thread is a pessimistic doom and gloom story. I get that you think the virus is hiding behind every tree and in every shadow to get you.

My more optimistic view that the fatality rate would settle at or below 0.7% which you seemed ready to argue to the death over seems to be coming true at a much higher likelihood than your 3.4% cfr infecting everyone exponentially. Still prepared to eat crow if we have 238,000,000 deaths when it has a 3.4% worldwide death rate though.

I did your work for you

If you are to believe the experts in their field from anywhere in the world right now [March 17], best case, it's at least 5x deadlier than seasonal influenza but it might turn out to be 20-30x deadlier.

And don't forget, some people that have it now and don't even show symptoms will end up in the hospital or worse. Also some that are in hospital now won't make it.

There is a lag/lead time on all everything

The World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control. Sorry, not sorry, I'll take their numbers over yours.

So, like I said, "If you are to believe the experts in their field from anywhere in the world right now, best case, it's at least 5x deadlier than seasonal influenza but it might turn out to be 20-30x deadlier."

Season flu CFR in the US is given as less than 0.1%

So, even if you take a full 0.1% for seasonal flu, and give it a mere 5x deadlier, you're only at 0.5%. The 3.4% would be 34x deadlier, and just 2% would be 20x deadlier.

So, yeah, like I said "If you are to believe the experts in their field from anywhere in the world right now, best case, it's at least 5x deadlier than seasonal influenza but it might turn out to be 20-30x deadlier."

Feel free to take a look, they include links for citations

https://www.worldometers.info/corona.../#who-03-03-20

I'd say "at least 0.5%" is compatible with your personal estimation of 0.7%

[HairyWBush]

Lmao damn. Would love to know how that conversation transpired.

it doesn't matter. Trump has much BIGGER threats to worry about right now. this guy right here
https://twitter.com/i/status/1246965704177451009

[Farley1324]

it doesn't matter. Trump has much BIGGER threats to worry about right now. this guy right here
https://twitter.com/i/status/1246965704177451009

I hope that guy wins the nomination. He's such a massive moron he will lose like hillary did.

It's so amazing and sad that we can't even get a candidate that is better than trump, to run against him.

What a world to live in

(I'd like to see a Republican primary and start from scratch this year, personally)

[RubberBandMang]

it doesn't matter. Trump has much BIGGER threats to worry about right now. this guy right here
https://twitter.com/i/status/1246965704177451009

Biden can't form sentences. How is he the mot likely dem candidate? Absurd. Trump will crush

[SlootSlayinGod]

Farley suck my cawk

[Farley1324]

Biden can't form sentences. How is he the mot likely dem candidate? Absurd. Trump will crush

Speaking as a Libertarian who hasn't been happy about any general election potus vote for awhile (but voted against Hillary), I worry the most about socialist-Sanders winning the nomination. I think he probably would have won if he got the nomination (as he should have) four years ago and would stand a chance this year

Farley suck my cawk

present it

[RubberBandMang]

Damn, Boris is in the ICU now

[Johnez]

Biden can't form sentences. How is he the mot likely dem candidate? Absurd. Trump will crush

They've really really dropped the ball. Democratic party should really be ashamed of themselves. At this point I'd have voted for any, literally any candidate beside fukking Trump, and yet here we are-choosing between the oldest, most senile, most idiotic individual ever or Trump. Not voting for the prez this year, fukking disgusted. What a disaster. Before all this I was prepared to vote Trump.

[Farley1324]

They've really really dropped the ball. Democratic party should really be ashamed of themselves. At this point I'd have voted for any, literally any candidate beside fukking Trump, and yet here we are-choosing between the oldest, most senile, most idiotic individual ever or Trump. Not voting for the prez this year, fukking disgusted. What a disaster.

I still owe you reps, this is like the 8th post I've tried to rep

But, you should vote for POTUS, even if you write somebody in or vote for a throwaway. The parties need to know that we want better options and are willing to vote

[io31]

Wait...I have to take issue with this model.

It has a total deaths projected by August 4th, but it projects 0 deaths after June 22. Literally projects a total of 81,650 for May 31 and then only goes up by like 16 deaths for all of June and 0 deaths for all of July and into August? How does that work?

As far as I understand it they use a fit function , which assumes that the reproductive number goes down with different social distancing measures ... and it stays down. In other words they don't consider the easing of the lockdown at all. In the beginning there is section explaining that this is intended as a planning aid for states/administrators so it is understandable that they were more interested in the peak numbers rather than the tail end of the curves. Here is the full paper but the sections that exlpain the modelling methodology are not exactly written for the layman it seems.

[Johnez]

I still owe you reps, this is like the 8th post I've tried to rep

But, you should vote for POTUS, even if you write somebody in or vote for a throwaway. The parties need to know that we want better options and are willing to vote

Thanks, that is true. BRB voting for Joe Exotic. Lel. Seriously though, that's a valid point, the fewer votes cast means the more candidates can simply appeal to their base, who are easily plied-which is terrible for discourse and democracy in general.

[Yoopwat]

Damn, Boris is in the ICU now

God speed boris, sure he’ll be fine

[ANumber1]

Damn, Boris is in the ICU now

oh snap

He couldn't handle the coronavirus bants.

[MEDITATE]

Damn, Boris is in the ICU now

That suck

[Farley1324]

As far as I understand it they use a fit function , which assumes that the reproductive number goes down with different social distancing measures ... and it stays down. In other words they don't consider the easing of the lockdown at all. In the beginning there is section explaining that this is intended as a planning aid for states/administrators so it is understandable that they were more interested in the peak numbers rather than the tail end of the curves. Here is the full paper but the sections that exlpain the modelling methodology are not exactly written for the layman it seems.

Yeah the modelling stuff gets too complex for me to try to understand (for fear I will waste time being unable to).

Your explanation makes sense, except then why headline it with a prediction for a YTD total by August if they stop adding to that YTD total, really, on May 31? Wouldn't bother me as much if they changed the way they present this "by August" number.

Granted, predicting a number for even two months from now has got to be nearly impossible, let alone four months out

[alphagorilla]

China is straight up gangsta'

https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-...plies-buy-back

[Yoopwat]

China is straight up gangsta'

https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-...plies-buy-back

Are they literally trying to get their sh#t pushed in?

[R3L3NTL3SS]

it doesn't matter. Trump has much BIGGER threats to worry about right now. this guy right here
https://twitter.com/i/status/1246965704177451009

Not sure if srs or joking. The only person Biden is a threat to is himself. Old, senile, and absolutely 100% ****ing retarded.

[Johnez]

China is straight up gangsta'

https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-...plies-buy-back

1. Start pandemic
2. Take donations
3. Sell donations back
4. ???
5. Profit.

Perfect plan.

[io31]

Your explanation makes sense, except then why headline it with a prediction for a YTD total by August if they stop adding to that YTD total, really, on May 31? Wouldn't bother me as much if they changed the way they present this "by August" number.

Well, yeah, they should maybe explicitly state that it assumes that the lockdown stays in place until the last person with the virus either dies or recovers. At low case numbers, the uncertainty in reproductive number becomes much more important too. I bet if you get a super spreader towards the end, it would prolong the tail a lot. I do numerical modeling (not statistical, so I am really not qualified) for part of my work and it looks like the maxim "all models are wrong but some are useful" also applies in this field.

[fishnbrah]

What a disaster. Before all this I was prepared to vote Trump.

aware me on what trump did recently to upset you

[chalup]

Okay.

A later post



We're probably past 10,000 right now this minute...FWIW.


This is the kind of "information" spread I oppose. It's dangerous, for everybody

You have never actually taken a position as far as I can tell. You just tear down any post you disagree with, without ever stating what you believe. That way you are never wrong, and can always point out when you are right. It's pretty fukking annoying when you post good information along with it. Position as far as how long these quarantines should last, how many people will die this year, what to do with the economy, etc.

[TugOfPeace]

What in the fuk. Woke up this morning as normal, had breakfast, started work, then 2 hours later started noticing body aches. Felt off. Previous night I worked out chest/triceps/neck so I felt some aches in my neck/forearm/leg. Chalked it up to only getting 5-6 hours of sleep and fapping.

Popped 2 tylenol and 1g of vitamin C, then took at 3.5 hour nap. During sleep I was a bit cold but not shivering yet, and it felt just like an incoming fever. Checked my temp halfway into napping and I was hotter than normal. Woke up completely normal/rested/cool.

I'm starting to wonder if I was contaminated from those fuking cinnamon rolls.. had no idea touching something that was contaminated then touching my food could give me the virus, if it did.

Maybe I'm just paranoid. Feels fine right now.

[Farley1324]

You have never actually taken a position as far as I can tell. You just tear down any post you disagree with, without ever stating what you believe. That way you are never wrong, and can always point out when you are right. It's pretty fukking annoying when you post good information along with it. Position as far as how long these quarantines should last, how many people will die this year, what to do with the economy, etc.

I have, many times. I just quoted, with bold, where I did. Scroll up and look for it. RE: CFR prediction of "at least 0.5%" (at least 5x higher than annual influenza which is given generally as 0.1 or less than 0.1) made as far back as March 17

Heck, here is a link to it (even though it's on this very page)
https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showt...post1601799801

I also took you up on your ban bet (twice, both of which you lost).

I also told you we were still going to see numbers trending up when you went ape crap saying they were going down because for one day they went down. Guess what, they have been trending up strong since.


But thank you for admitting I'm never wrong.

[HockeyBacon18]

i didn’t mention any of that

I said other nations have shown some positive results before trump ever mentioned it
India, one of the largest producers of HCQ in the world, has banned the exportation of it and is requiring all medical personnel to take it along with all family members of the infected
Why would india do that?

I honestly wish trump wouldn’t have ever mentioned it, probably wouldn’t be getting the hate that it is now as it’s become political.

sorry brah, must of misinterpreted.

I agree that if trump hadnt mentioned it, it wouldnt be going through the news cycle it is now.

And i also agree that it will likely be a good preventive drug for mild to moderate cases. I also think it'll be used in combination for severe