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  1. #5041
    Clit Commander alphagorilla's Avatar
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    just a reminder, this isnt forever. We are going to get through this.
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  2. #5042
    6'2&quot; 227 soaponarope1's Avatar
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    Taking into account estimated actual infection numbers rather than using confirmed cases, which is mostly meaningless, and we get an overall death rate of 0.66%

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...243-7/fulltext

    It's been almost three weeks (will be Thursday) since I told this guy that the death rate will not be 3.4% when this shakes out, but probably much closer to .7%

    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    https://news.yahoo.com/150-million-a...185632345.html

    150 million will likely get it. Let's see who is right. If there's 5,100,000 deaths (3.4% of that), I guess the fear mongers win.

    It will burn through our vulnerable populations and burn out shortly after though. Isolate yourself to prevent it but it's not the end of the world.

    Edit- you people are morons. I'll leave this thread and update you all with the real numbers in 3 months. Bookmarked and added to calendar
    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    How about 3 weeks?
    I'll be busy on Thursday so this should be close enough.
    Last edited by soaponarope1; 03-30-2020 at 08:24 PM.

  3. #5043
    Certified Tyrone rockr101's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by alphagorilla View Post
    just a reminder, this isnt forever. We are going to get through this.
    not all of us
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  4. #5044
    ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Tamorlane's Avatar
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    Lightbulb S. Korea's Top Doctor Drops Facts About the Virus

    -the widespread demand for 'social distancing' is because the virus is able to infect through the air (from spit droplets; aerosol), especially at gatherings of people close to one another like schools, parties, churches, etc.
    -people spit out tiny droplets even during normal conversation. Some are so small they are not affected immediately by gravity and can suspend in the air and go further distances than otherwise.
    -most vaccines take 10-15 years
    -best case scenario for a vaccine is 18 months
    -Highly recommends wearing a mask (almost all do in S. Korea)
    -says US Surgeon General and World Health Organization told people masks aren't important to avoid hoarding because the medical professionals need them more


  5. #5045
    Got That Sack freshnevafrozen's Avatar
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    Does he mention if you can get corona twice? Even after recovering from it once?
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  6. #5046
    ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Tamorlane's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by freshnevafrozen View Post
    Does he mention if you can get corona twice? Even after recovering from it once?
    Yes they talked about it. You can, they are seeing these cases emerge. They are also asking for blood donations so they can use the plasma with the antibodies for those infected and at high risk.

    He also said it could become seasonal like the flu.

  7. #5047
    Lifetime natty allianc3's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by freshnevafrozen View Post
    Does he mention if you can get corona twice? Even after recovering from it once?
    I’d like to know the answer to this.

  8. #5048
    We know lol Farley1324's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    Taking into account estimated actual infection numbers rather than using confirmed cases, which is mostly meaningless, and we get an overall death rate of 0.66%

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...243-7/fulltext

    It's been almost three weeks (will be Thursday) since I told this guy that the death rate will not be 3.4% when this shakes out, but probably much closer to .7%





    I'll be busy on Thursday so this should be close enough.
    Pretty small sampling. If it was .66%, and half of the US eventually caught it, that would be about 1 million dead. To look at it big picture way

  9. #5049
    6'2&quot; 227 soaponarope1's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by rockr101 View Post
    not all of us
    I wonder, due to the lower amount of miles driven, less spread of things like the Flu, less activity at dangerous jobs, and probably a decent number of people who will quit smoking during this whole thing, are we actually safer than before? Likely, so probably more of 'us' will be around in 3 months than otherwise would have.

  10. #5050
    Proud Dad 5x10's Avatar
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    I emailed my doctor about the drug trifecta of hydroxycholoroquine/zpack/and zinc
    He said he is prescribing it to patients that are showing covid symptoms (although my county only reports 11 total positives)
    He also notes to take the zinc 2 hours after the other 2 drugs


    Just hope there’s stock of the drugs if I ever need it
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  11. #5051
    6'2&quot; 227 soaponarope1's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    Pretty small sampling. If it was .66%, and half of the US eventually caught it, that would be about 1 million dead. To look at it big picture way
    I guess, maybe it will swell immensely to 3.4%+ and you'll be satisfied.

    Numbers point to me being right though, good luck with your exponential growth.

  12. #5052
    We know lol Farley1324's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    I wonder, due to the lower amount of miles driven, less spread of things like the Flu, less activity at dangerous jobs, and probably a decent number of people who will quit smoking during this whole thing, are we actually safer than before? Likely, so probably more of 'us' will be around in 3 months than otherwise would have.
    I've wondered about the roadways fatality aspect. Driving is ****ing dangerous. But then I remember driving is ballpark what 40k a year and the number estimate just put up above could easily be 1 million and there is still driving going on and starting over summer lots of it. So. Yeah.

    Unfortunately I bet not many stop smoking purely by choice when otherwise as healthy as they were three months ago.

    And don't forget all the medical treatment being put on hold right now because of this, like, a lot of **** isn't being done

  13. #5053
    Ph.D Broscience DoctorKazama's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Tamorlane View Post
    Yes they talked about it. You can, they are seeing these cases emerge. They are also asking for blood donations so they can use the plasma with the antibodies for those infected and at high risk.

    He also said it could become seasonal like the flu.
    Is this real life? Fuking chinese people...

  14. #5054
    6'2&quot; 227 soaponarope1's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    I've wondered about the roadways fatality aspect. Driving is ****ing dangerous.

    Unfortunately I bet not many stop smoking purely by choice when otherwise as healthy as they were three months ago.
    Wouldn't take many to outweigh the deaths from the virus. An estimated 1 billion people smoke. If 0.1% of that number quit because they want to increase their overall lung health spurred on by the virus (probably a realistic number) that will result in 1,000,000 lives saved or extended.

    Between that, reduction in driving, reduction in workplace hazards, reduction in spread of other illnesses like the flu, and other factors I'd bet we actually come out ahead.

    Of course, if your 3.4% exponential figures are right and it's the most terrifying and contagious disease ever as this thread advertises I guess we'll see 238,000,000 deaths.

  15. #5055
    Billy B1tch Cakes BadMedicin3's Avatar
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    Time to start wearing surgical masks brahs

  16. #5056
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    Originally Posted by Tamorlane View Post
    He also said it could become seasonal like the flu.
    It already is seasonal, all viruses are. This virus is not new, it's simply a mutated strain of one of the many types of coronaviruses which constitute "the flu", or the bugs that are normally passed around every year. Total deaths and hospitalizations from "the flu" this year were hundreds of times higher than for this virus alone, which is unsurprising considering it's only one of many.

    Originally Posted by freshnevafrozen View Post
    Does he mention if you can get corona twice? Even after recovering from it once?
    Lol yes obviously you could get a coronavirus more than once, there are hundreds of them. You people are acting like this is some deadly new disease the likes of which we have never seen and are doing everything you can to justify that it's the end of the world. It's reminiscent of global warmers who constantly predict apocalyptic temperatures, then when their predictions don't happen, they simply ignore the previous ones and make more predictions to justify grant money and attention.

  17. #5057
    Registered User sf813's Avatar
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    So in the best case scenario, we could have a handle on this closer to July/August of this year

    May is a pipe dream told by dumbass USA
    Last edited by sf813; 03-30-2020 at 08:46 PM.

  18. #5058
    Verified Miscer ☑️ ispy's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by allianc3 View Post
    I’d like to know the answer to this.
    many articles i've seen recently attribute this to error in testing. look at how many faulty test kits the chinese sent out to other countries. only like 30% of them worked.
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  19. #5059
    Registered User DrumsNotDead's Avatar
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    well yeah i'd love to wear a mask, can't ****ing find them though

  20. #5060
    We know lol Farley1324's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by soaponarope1 View Post
    Wouldn't take many to outweigh the deaths from the virus. An estimated 1 billion people smoke. If 0.1% of that number quit because they want to increase their overall lung health spurred on by the virus (probably a realistic number) that will result in 1,000,000 lives saved or extended.

    Between that, reduction in driving, reduction in workplace hazards, reduction in spread of other illnesses like the flu, and other factors I'd bet we actually come out ahead.

    Of course, if your 3.4% exponential figures are right and it's the most terrifying and contagious disease ever as this thread advertises I guess we'll see 238,000,000 deaths.
    I'd say you're wrong.

    Let's start with the numbers presented above. You posted a supposed guesstimate of 0.66% CFR. If only half of the world's population is ever infected and CFR is 0.66%, that would still mean 46.2 million deaths. One fortieth of that number maybe just as a completely random number based on absolutely nothing choosing to stop smoking isn't even close.


    Reduction in workplace hazards doesn't count the healthcare professionals catching and dying to covid does it?

    Workplace hazards aren't going to just stop, either, that may be a month or two where less work is done, but those people are going back to work and may even do more work later to catch up (economy dependent?) and may even have more workplace deaths as they work faster to try to catch up.

    You don't have a global pandemic that results in renting ice rinks to store the dead bodies that overflow and forklift pallets of bodies into trucks in Brooklyn and end up with fewer deaths because a few people didn't drive to work today


    Edit: 3.4% is not my number and it never was, I never hung my hat on it. Not sure where those wires got crossed. It was the best number out there for a time but it's still a moving target and I do think the dust will settle below that. But as demonstrated above, it doesn't have to be anywhere near that high to be terrible. Just the flu is <0.01% and is mathematically credited with killing lots of people, no matter whose numbers you take now, the covid CFR is significant and applying it across the population sizes suspected of being infected or expected to become infected quickly results in staggering numbers. A few people stopping smoking isn't even a drop near the bucket.
    Last edited by Farley1324; 03-30-2020 at 09:13 PM.

  21. #5061
    calf of peace Schnitzl's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by ispy View Post
    many articles i've seen recently attribute this to error in testing. look at how many faulty test kits the chinese sent out to other countries. only like 30% of them worked.
    Same. You get immunity for this particular strain but who knows how it will evolve.

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    Originally Posted by sf813 View Post
    So in the best case scenario, we could have a handle on this closer to July/August of this year

    May is a pipe dream told by dumbass USA
    Late Summer is probably the most optimistic timeframe, but that doesn’t mean everything is going to stay closed until then.

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    Originally Posted by yewotm8 View Post
    It already is seasonal, all viruses are. This virus is not new, it's simply a mutated strain of one of the many types of coronaviruses which constitute "the flu", or the bugs that are normally passed around every year. Total deaths and hospitalizations from "the flu" this year were hundreds of times higher than for this virus alone, which is unsurprising considering it's only one of many.



    Lol yes obviously you could get a coronavirus more than once, there are hundreds of them. You people are acting like this is some deadly new disease the likes of which we have never seen and are doing everything you can to justify that it's the end of the world. It's reminiscent of global warmers who constantly predict apocalyptic temperatures, then when their predictions don't happen, they simply ignore the previous ones and make more predictions to justify grant money and attention.
    'regular' flu kills more people because it has infected more people. Did the flu start by killing hundreds of thousands when it first appeared?

    Corona is FAR more contagious, that's the scary part.
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    0 cases in Best Korea, where's this nerd's explanation for that?


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    Originally Posted by freshnevafrozen View Post
    Does he mention if you can get corona twice? Even after recovering from it once?
    From what I have read, no you can't in most cases. The tests for it are pretty ****ty and a lot give wrong results, which are the times where people tested positive twice.
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    Originally Posted by OliverHeldens View Post
    Late Summer is probably the most optimistic timeframe, but that doesn’t mean everything is going to stay closed until then.
    Well, it should remain closed because some bad cluster of infections would F everything all over again

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    what percentage of the corona virus tests are coming back positive?? Seems like it might help us know how many active cases there might be out and about in public . because it seems like they are extremely hard to come by so if 90 percent of people taking the test come back positive it could be huge ... as opposed to say 5 percent coming back positive ...when to even get tested they already have to deem you likely to have it .

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    United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said the world risks a “looming food crisis”
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coro...-supplies.html

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    Originally Posted by EddoStarr305 View Post
    what percentage of the corona virus tests are coming back positive?? Seems like it might help us know how many active cases there might be out and about in public . because it seems like they are extremely hard to come by so if 90 percent of people taking the test come back positive it could be huge ... as opposed to say 5 percent coming back positive ...when to even get tested they already have to deem you likely to have it .
    Varies wildly, not surprisingly considering the deplorable lack of tests and inconsistencies in who gets them, not to mention how FUKING LONG it takes to get results (like, a week to get results in common, there is so much lag in the info from so many things, like taking a week to get results). The crazy thing about NYC and surrounding area recently is their positive result ratio is high as a kite. Other places it's been really low. It's all over the place.

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    Originally Posted by EddoStarr305 View Post
    what percentage of the corona virus tests are coming back positive?? Seems like it might help us know how many active cases there might be out and about in public . because it seems like they are extremely hard to come by so if 90 percent of people taking the test come back positive it could be huge ... as opposed to say 5 percent coming back positive ...when to even get tested they already have to deem you likely to have it .
    ive read that typically, it’s under 10%
    NY is up to 40%
    Imo, it’s due to their population density
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