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  1. #4411
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    Does anyone have any info or link where they mention if the people who died had the flu vaccine or not? I'm curious to see if there is a correlation between people who received/or did not receive the flu vaccine and deaths.
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  2. #4412
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    Originally Posted by TrinnieBuu View Post
    New model coming from London Imperial College.

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...26-03-2020.pdf

    They used more updated numbers coming from the studies that were published after their initial model. R0 actually got bumped from 2.5 to 3.0. Model used an incubation period of 4.6 days (in line with most studies out there for incubation), 8 days for hospital stay (actually below what has been published in China, there it was 11 days), etc. They also took into account the reduction rate that most countries have since implemented. New numbers is if we take both a suppression (contact tracing and quarantining potential cases), and social distancing of general population (up to 60% reduction in social interactions for those over 70).

    If nothing is done (no country is in this category right now), estimated 40m global fatalities this year. With suppression and social distancing it’s reduced to 2m fatalities.

    I know a lot of people were critical of their original model. But if you look at their method section for the old study, they used the information we knew at the time, whatever estimated value we didn’t know there was a huge disclaimer that this is an estimated value. Once they have more info... they wasted no time in publishing a new study.
    Original garbage study should never have been released then.

    Rule #1 for predictions: Don't offer predictions if you don't have enough data to form a reasonable prediction.

    Ferguson is a twit:



    Just LOL at his asinine quote.

  3. #4413
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    Originally Posted by Shortfuze View Post
    Does anyone have any info or link where they mention if the people who died had the flu vaccine or not? I'm curious to see if there is a correlation between people who received/or did not receive the flu vaccine and deaths.
    Have seen nothing of that, seems extremely unlikely to have a causal relationship

  4. #4414
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    Originally Posted by saltypits View Post
    Original garbage study should never have been released then.

    Rule #1 for predictions: Don't offer predictions if you don't have enough data to form a reasonable prediction.
    Define reasonable. 30% accuracy ? 10% , 2% ? Having an imperfect estimate is still better than having none. There isn't enough time to wait for perfect models, decisions will have to be made based on incomplete data and analysis.

  5. #4415
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    Originally Posted by saltypits View Post
    Original garbage study should never have been released then.

    Rule #1 for predictions: Don't offer predictions if you don't have enough data to form a reasonable prediction.

    Ferguson is a twit:

    [img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUCnmRwWAAEshIz?format=jpg&name=small[/ig]

    Just LOL at his asinine quote.
    So, to be clear...is your opinion that nobody should have tried to project or predict anything, everybody should have said "we're just going to wait and see what happens and then decide what we should have done"?

    lol

    Some people are just never happy with anything that is done or not done. Coincidentally, those people never seem to be in a position where decisions have to be made lol

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    Originally Posted by saltypits View Post
    Ferguson is a twit:

    Just LOL at his asinine quote.
    What are you basing that on? The WHO has contended from the beginning that asymptomatic infections are being exaggerated and that most asymptomatic cases they observed eventually become symptomatic.

    The single most thoroughly-tested group of people in the world were on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, and only 45% were asymptomatic when they tested positive.

    There's no doubt that there are a large majority of cases who are not very ill, but they know they are ill. The idea that it's already swept through half the population of Britain, on the other hand, can't be supported. The author admits that there's no way to support it without serological testing.

    https://www.livescience.com/half-the...s-covid19.html

    In one hypothetical scenario, the authors estimated that viral transmission began 38 days before the first recorded death in the U.K., which took place March 5. They found that, given this start date, 68% of the population would have been infected by March 19. This statistic made headlines in the Financial Times, and later, outlets like the Evening Standard, Daily Mail and The Sun, according to Wired U.K.

    But this mathematical narrative rests on several key assumptions that are not backed by real-world data, experts told Wired.

    To begin, the authors write that their overall approach "rests on the assumption that only a very small proportion of the population is at risk of hospitabitable illness." In their most extreme model, the authors estimate that just 0.1% of the population, or one in every 1,000 people, will require hospitalization.

    "We can already see just by looking at Italy ... that that figure has already been exceeded," Tim Colbourn, an epidemiologist at University College London’s Institute for Global Health, told Wired U.K. In the region of Lombardy alone, more than one in 1,000 people have been hospitalized, and that number continues to grow every day, Wired U.K. reported.

    "The work models one of the most important questions — how far has the infection really spread — in the total absence of any direct data," wrote James Wood, head of the Department of Veterinary Medicine at the University of Cambridge, who researches infection dynamics and disease control.

    "As far as I can tell, the model ... assumes that all those infected, whether they are asymptomatic, mildly ill or severely ill are equally infectious to others," Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, wrote on the Science Media Centre site. "This is almost certainly false."

    In addition, the model assumes that the U.K. population would become "completely mixed" over time, meaning any given individual has an equal chance of running into another within the region, Hunter wrote. "We do not all have an equal random chance of meeting every other person in the U.K., infected or otherwise," he said. Without some acknowledgement of the structure of social networks within the U.K.; the relative risk of running into a mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic person; and the risk of severe infection tied to different demographics, the simplified model "should not be given much credibility," Hunter said.
    If we're going to call studies "garbage" for using assumptions that were empirically supported at the time the model was created, what do we call the studies that were making them up out of whole cloth?
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  7. #4417
    Registered User saltypits's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    So, to be clear...is your opinion that nobody should have tried to project or predict anything, everybody should have said "we're just going to wait and see what happens and then decide what we should have done"?

    lol

    Some people are just never happy with anything that is done or not done. Coincidentally, those people never seem to be in a position where decisions have to be made lol
    LOL I make decisions all the time.

    You know, there were OTHER MODELS that didn't even come close to Imperial's numbers. Why did those suddenly get ignored?

  8. #4418
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    Originally Posted by saltypits View Post
    LOL I make decisions all the time.

    You know, there were OTHER MODELS that didn't even come close to Imperial's numbers. Why did those suddenly get ignored?
    Can you quote where you supported those other models?

  9. #4419
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    Originally Posted by saltypits View Post
    LOL I make decisions all the time.

    You know, there were OTHER MODELS that didn't even come close to Imperial's numbers. Why did those suddenly get ignored?
    Which models? What are the authors track records? You need to expand.

  10. #4420
    Registered User saltypits's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by io31 View Post
    Define reasonable. 30% accuracy ? 10% , 2% ? Having an imperfect estimate is still better than having none. There isn't enough time to wait for perfect models, decisions will have to be made based on incomplete data and analysis.
    No, that is wrong, and you are extremely naive for believing that.

  11. #4421
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    Originally Posted by saltypits View Post
    No, that is wrong, and you are extremely naive for believing that.
    Having an imperfect estimate is still better than having none at all

    Can you quote where you supported or introduced the better models you believe should have been followed instead?

  12. #4422
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    Originally Posted by io31 View Post
    Which models? What are the authors track records? You need to expand.
    How about the original CDC model?

    Do you think making pandemic models is hard? There's open source software to do it.

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    I’m failing to see why people are saying the imperial college initial model overestimated by significant amounts...

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

    See above for the actual report. It says if NO measures are taken, then 500k people would die over the 18 month period this model was ran for in the U.K.

    If isolation of cases, home quarantine of the whole household of the case, AND social distancing for the population were taken, depends on when they took effects, the predicted fatality for the U.K. was 6k to 48k...
    They said she's gone too far this time

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  14. #4424
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    Originally Posted by TrinnieBuu View Post
    I’m failing to see why people are saying the imperial college initial model overestimated by significant amounts...

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

    See above for the actual report. It says if NO measures are taken, then 500k people would die over the 18 month period this model was ran for in the U.K.

    If isolation of cases, home quarantine of the whole household of the case, AND social distancing for the population were taken, depends on when they took effects, the predicted fatality for the U.K. was 6k to 48k...
    I'm not seeing it either.

    Pretty much looks like so much of the world took it seriously and clamped down on things that the worst case scenario is no more. And, as predicted, people are now reeeeeeing that because what was done mitigated the damage, it didn't need to be done because the damage was mitigated.

    like...lol

    (and of course the revision is based on those things being conitnued)

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    Originally Posted by TrinnieBuu View Post
    I’m failing to see why people are saying the imperial college initial model overestimated by significant amounts...

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

    See above for the actual report. It says if NO measures are taken, then 500k people would die over the 18 month period this model was ran for in the U.K.

    If isolation of cases, home quarantine of the whole household of the case, AND social distancing for the population were taken, depends on when they took effects, the predicted fatality for the U.K. was 6k to 48k...
    The reason is simple: they are potatoes.
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    Aware since 2004 Witrebel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by ANumber1 View Post
    The reason is simple: they are potatoes.


    Also:
    Check this out.... Spooky but not surprising.
    And I guess since we've all decided that COVID-19 was a hoax there is no point on commenting about the impact of these beach bros?
    https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/stat...28347034767361
    We are all gunna make it

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    Originally Posted by io31 View Post
    An estimate, by definition, is imperfect. If you believe in what you just said, no one should decide on anything based on any estimated value. That is not naive, that is insane.
    An estimate is based on data. You can also calculate standard deviation. If your SD is so large that the model estimates anything from 500K deaths down to 6K, then IT'S NOT VALID.

    Did you read the assumptions in the original model? Did they make sense to you? I sure as hell thought they were far too aggressive.

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    Originally Posted by saltypits View Post
    How about the original CDC model?

    Do you think making pandemic models is hard? There's open source software to do it.
    CDC model predicted worst case 1.7M dead in US, I believe original imperial model predicted 2.2 M dead in US. Does it matter as far as the current policy decisions are concerned? No. Go to lockdown and prepare your hospitals getting overrun.

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    Originally Posted by saltypits View Post
    An estimate is based on data. You can also calculate standard deviation. If your SD is so large that the model estimates anything from 500K deaths down to 6K, then IT'S NOT VALID.

    Did you read the assumptions in the original model? Did they make sense to you? I sure as hell thought they were far too aggressive.
    Perhaps you could link us to the CDC model you had in mind as your preferred and valid study.

    The only one I saw presented estimates from 200k to 1.7m.
    "I will respond by saying that it is you who is the dumbass." - Wincel, 6/20/19

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    Originally Posted by ANumber1 View Post
    Perhaps you could link us to the CDC model you had in mind as your preferred and valid study.

    The only one I saw presented estimates from 200k to 1.7m.
    Also interested ^

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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    I'm not seeing it either.

    Pretty much looks like so much of the world took it seriously and clamped down on things that the worst case scenario is no more. And, as predicted, people are now reeeeeeing that because what was done mitigated the damage, it didn't need to be done because the damage was mitigated.

    like...lol

    (and of course the revision is based on those things being conitnued)
    Who in the past two pages has said what the governors have done shouldn’t have happened? Nobody is saying that. What most people are saying is we have to go back to work in mid April. Places like NY and Michigan obviously not but we still have morons in Tennessee calling for the governor to mandate a in home shelter for another 4 weeks. That is ABSURD.
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    We know lol Farley1324's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by chalup View Post
    Who in the past two pages has said what the governors have done shouldn’t have happened? Nobody is saying that. What most people are saying is we have to go back to work in mid April. Places like NY and Michigan obviously not but we still have morons in Tennessee calling for the governor to mandate a in home shelter for another 4 weeks. That is ABSURD.
    Who in this thread has said TN (or anywhere) should mandate home shelter for another 4 weeks?

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    Originally Posted by saltypits View Post
    An estimate is based on data. You can also calculate standard deviation. If your SD is so large that the model estimates anything from 500K deaths down to 6K, then IT'S NOT VALID.

    Did you read the assumptions in the original model? Did they make sense to you? I sure as hell thought they were far too aggressive.
    Did you actually read the paper? Did you not comprehend that the varied estimates were a function of response? I.e. 500k if you do nothing, 48-6k if we suppress? I mean seriously there is more to life than the headlines. Do some critical thinking before posting, please.
    We are all gunna make it

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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    Also interested ^
    This is the March 16th Imperial Study I think he is talking about table 4 with R0=2 with the most aggressive suppression. Given the same suppression strategy , range of number of dead vs R0 is not that high.

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    Originally Posted by io31 View Post
    This is the March 16th Imperial Study I think he is talking about table 4 with R0=2 with the most aggressive suppression. Given the same suppression strategy , range of number of dead vs R0 is not that high.
    No, he was talking about a CDC model. The only CDC estimate I saw ranged from 200k-1.7m. That is clearly so wide that he must have been referring to something else, since he believes those types of estimates are "NOT VALID".

    Originally Posted by saltypits View Post
    How about the original CDC model?

    Do you think making pandemic models is hard? There's open source software to do it.
    Originally Posted by saltypits View Post
    An estimate is based on data. You can also calculate standard deviation. If your SD is so large that the model estimates anything from 500K deaths down to 6K, then IT'S NOT VALID.
    I'd very much like to see the original CDC model he's referring to so that we can witness the awe-inspiring confidence and precision of the type of model saltypits considers valid.
    "I will respond by saying that it is you who is the dumbass." - Wincel, 6/20/19

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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    Who in this thread has said TN (or anywhere) should mandate home shelter for another 4 weeks?
    I specifically stated people in Tennessee are calling for it. You on the other hand specifically stated people in this thread said nothing should have been done when I haven’t seen one person say that. I’m not even sure what you are arguing for at this point.

    Anyone see the CNN reporter try and trash the man for not having 1 million respirators in the pipe line? What is wrong with people? Why can’t we have a median? This isn’t the end of the world, millions of people aren’t going to die in the next 60-90 days. It also isn’t just a flu, it’s highly contagious and is a death sentence for the elderly with pre existing conditions. Another two weeks of staying home and social distancing will have us on a path to try and get back on track. Places like NY obviously have a problem and didn’t adhere to the guidelines like they should have and are now paying for it.
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    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    Also:
    Check this out.... Spooky but not surprising.
    And I guess since we've all decided that COVID-19 was a hoax there is no point on commenting about the impact of these beach bros?
    https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/stat...28347034767361
    Very neat (not its implication but the data analysis itself). Must spread some reputation.

  28. #4438
    Is a Czechnologist. R3L3NTL3SS's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by io31 View Post
    Go to lockdown and prepare your hospitals getting overrun.
    Lmao. Yep. It's just that simple guys. Just lock it all down, turn the whole country into a 3rd world **** hole and hope for the best!

    With less than half the states on lock down and in less than 2 weeks, a record high of over 3 million have filed for unemployment. What could go wrong by just shutting the entire country down for a few weeks?

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    Originally Posted by R3L3NTL3SS View Post
    Lmao. Yep. It's just that simple guys. Just lock it all down, turn the whole country into a 3rd world **** hole and hope for the best!
    Hmm.. 3k lives lost on Sept 11th. I wonder how much of a response that warranted, maybe US should have let it slide. Not worth spending you precious money on.
    Last edited by io31; 03-26-2020 at 11:54 AM.

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    Originally Posted by io31 View Post
    Hmm.. 3k lives lost on Sept 11th. I wonder how much of a response that warranted, maybe US should have let it slide. Not worth spending you precious money on.
    Right. A terrorist attack and this virus are so comparable.

    Some of you have fuking lost it.

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