It’s because of the lag(and lack of testing). For reference the OG thread was created on Jan. 21st and there was 220 confirmed cases worldwide. Fast forward 8 weeks(give or take) and look where we are. The average incubation time before symptoms is a little over 6 days, so let’s just say one week. Let’s also assume the RO of 3 is correct.
Week 0- 3 people are showing symptoms
Week 1- 9 people are showing symptoms
Week 2- 27 people are showing symptoms
Week10- 177,147 are showing symptoms
Week 13- 4,782,969 people are showing symptoms
Week 14-14,348,907 people are showing symptoms
Starting out it could go undetected if symptoms are mild, but eventually even people who feel even slightly bad will convince themselves they have it. And obviously even a slight change in RO could drastically change those numbers over time. Plus we can see differences as it starts to burn out in some place or take off in others(like India).
|
Closed Thread
Results 331 to 360 of 7508
-
03-07-2020, 01:47 PM #331+positive crew+
-we all gonna make it, but what it is is up to you crew
-all things in moderation, even political views crew
-support local farms crew
-try to do at least one good deed/day crew
-less cursing the darkness and more lighting candles crew
-
03-07-2020, 02:46 PM #332
-
-
03-07-2020, 03:31 PM #333
- Join Date: Jul 2010
- Location: Portland, Oregon, United States
- Posts: 21,028
- Rep Power: 207614
Awesome pics. Great size. Look thick. Solid. Tight. Keep us all posted on your continued progress with any new progress pics or vid clips. Show us what you got man. Wanna see how freakin' huge, solid, thick and tight you can get. Thanks for the motivation.
-
03-07-2020, 03:54 PM #334
N95 respirators work.
If you are concerned about the best protection possible should you have to go into areas with known or possibly infected persons, then a properly-worn N95 respirator will in fact help reduce your exposure.
Association between 2019-nCoV transmission and N95 respirator use
https://www.journalofhospitalinfecti...097-9/fulltext
Mar 3rd, 2020
Cases of a novel type of contagious pneumonia were first reported in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Chinese health authorities have determined that a novel coronavirus (CoV), denoted as 2019-nCoV (SARS-CoV-2), is the cause of this pneumonia outbreak (COVID-19)1,2. Existing evidence have confirmed the human-to-human transmission of 2019-nCoV3. (Table 1)
We retrospectively collected infection data from 2nd to 22nd January 2020 at six departments (Respiratory, ICU, Infectious Disease, Hepatobiliary Pancreatic Surgery, Trauma and Microsurgery, and Urology) from Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University. Medical staff (doctors and nurses) followed differential routines of occupational protection: (a) staff at the Departments of Respiratory Medicine, ICU, and Infectious Disease (mainly quarantined area) wore N95 respirators, and disinfected and cleaned their hands frequently (the N95 group); (b) medical staff in the other three departments wore no medical masks, and disinfected and cleaned their hands only occasionally (the no-mask group). The difference was because the latter departments were not considered to be high risk in the early days of the outbreak.
Suspected cases of 2019-nCoV infection was investigated by chest CT, and confirmed by molecular diagnosis. In total, 28 and 58 patients had confirmed and suspicious 2019-nCov-infection. Patient exposure was significantly higher for the N95 group compared to no-mask group (for confirmed patients: difference: 733%; exposure odds ratio: 8.33, Table I).
Among the 493 medical staff, none of 278 (56 doctors and 222 nurses) in the N95 group became infected, compared with 10 of 213 (77 doctors and 136 nurses) from the no-mask group were confirmed infected (Table I). Regardless of their lower risk of exposure, the 2019-nCoV infection rate for medical staff was significantly increased in the no-mask group compared with the N95 respirator group (difference: 4.65%, [95% CI: 1.75%-infinite]; P<2.2e-16) (adjusted odds ratio (OR): 464.82, [95% CI: 97.73-infinite]; P<2.2e-16).
Likewise, we analyzed the medical staff infection data from Huangmei People’s Hospital (12 confirmed patients) and Qichun People’s Hospital (11 confirmed patients), and have observed the similar phenomenon. No medical staff wearing the N95 respirators and following routines of frequent disinfection and hand washing were infected by 2019-nCoV up until 22nd January 2020.
A randomized clinical trial has reported that the N95 respirators vs medical masks resulted in no significant difference in the incidence of laboratory confirmed influenza4. In our study, we observed that the N95 respirators, disinfection and hand washing appear to help reduce the infectious risk of 2019-nCoV in doctors and nurses. Interestingly, departments with a high proportion of male doctors seemed to have a higher risk of infection. Our results emphasize the need for strict occupational protection measures in fighting COVID-19.
-
03-07-2020, 04:12 PM #335
I readthat people are stealing hand sanitizers and surgical masks from doctors' offices. What a new low.
source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/peop...uomo-says.html*Simplicity is the key to life*
Thanks ZBlacktt for the mod rep!
Thanks ForumSentinel for the admin rep!
Thanks Gxp23 for the mod rep!
Thanks 400LB Gorilla for the mod rep!
Thanks CountryMike for admin rep!
Thanks Nics1246 for mod rep!
I got married on August 24, 2013!!
ლ(╹◡╹ლ)
-
03-07-2020, 04:21 PM #336
25% of Italy will be on lock down
https://www.wsj.com/articles/italy-p...us-11583613874
-
-
03-07-2020, 04:37 PM #337
Uh oh people tested positive for the virus right after attending CPAC with trump pence and others.
-
03-07-2020, 05:25 PM #338
- Join Date: Feb 2010
- Location: Austin, Texas, United States
- Posts: 23,985
- Rep Power: 137319
This is not normal or flu like.
https://www.king5.com/article/news/h...6-a5af399e2a75
I read the person wasn't in the main room with Trump Pence and had no contact with officials.
I read the person was in a room far away. There were infected people at CPAC and AIPAC.
I wish Trump/Pence would get it. Not to injure them, but to increase urgency and let people know this isn't the flu. I wish them no harm.
I can't believe we had a month headstart and yet still no tests. Texas can only test 125 people a day right now. 29 million live in the state.
https://smcorridornews.com/governor-...r-coronavirus/Last edited by metroins; 03-07-2020 at 05:39 PM.
Life is easy when you take personal responsibility
MMMC - Assistant to the Assistant of the Secretary of Assistance
I don't do limits.
-
03-07-2020, 05:35 PM #339
Numbers in China are leveling off. Deaths in America aren't too severe. The media will get bored of this and move on eventually.
Survival. When the jungle tears itself down and builds itself into something new. Guys like you and me, we end up dead. Doesn’t really mean anything. Or, if we happen to live through it, well that doesn’t mean anything either.
-
03-07-2020, 05:43 PM #340
- Join Date: Feb 2010
- Location: Austin, Texas, United States
- Posts: 23,985
- Rep Power: 137319
I don't believe China numbers.
The length of death takes about 8-18 days from symptom onset.
Last week we had less than 15 non cruise ship infected, now we're over 437 infected. Hopefully our healthcare is better than China (not looking good in Seattle). Deaths should climb this week and next week in America.
I'm hoping we follow the South Korea trend and not Italy/Iran.Last edited by metroins; 03-07-2020 at 06:18 PM.
Life is easy when you take personal responsibility
MMMC - Assistant to the Assistant of the Secretary of Assistance
I don't do limits.
-
-
03-07-2020, 05:54 PM #341
-
03-07-2020, 05:56 PM #342
-
03-07-2020, 06:07 PM #343
Those chest CT scans are good for screening for active viral infection, but they are not specific for anything. Any virus can show similar findings, and even non-infectious things like pulmonary edema and smoking-related interstitial lung diseases can look similar. I hope they are confirming the imaging findings with actual PCR to confirm before adding those cases to the total tally.
أشهد أن لا إله إلاَّ الله و أشهد أن محمد رسول الله
-
03-07-2020, 06:10 PM #344
My clinic is running close to low on face masks. Suppliers don't know when they'll have more coming in. How how the hell do the suppliers of these items not turn up production?
Eagles/Leafs
-
-
03-07-2020, 06:13 PM #345
-
03-07-2020, 06:25 PM #346
-
03-07-2020, 08:24 PM #347
-
03-07-2020, 08:39 PM #348
Let's get right to the heart of this. You do have an agenda, and you are using your power of authority on this forum to push your agenda. I believe your agenda is well intended, you think panic is bad and for whatever reason you do not believe this is a serious threat. You accuse anyone who disagrees of suffering from confirmation bias. I think the truth is that both sides suffer from confirmation bias, you are simply incapable or unwilling to admit you suffer from it the same as we do. You state that you already approach this thread and topic from the conclusion that this is completely overblown.
You accuse me of cherry picking. I took the sources you posted, went to the results or conclusions section, and posted the data. In the proceeding post I made it a point to admit where I was wrong and come back to a place of civility and engage in productive conversation. I didn't link those reports, you did. I didn't write them, the authors did. It's very dishonest to claim that those reports support your OP. They don't. You can't find a source that supports your risk level assessment because no one knows for sure. The data about its rate of growth certainly doesn't support you, but your mind is already made up.
I would be inclined to agree with you, but you didn't simply start your own thread and start an moderated thread. You took the prime sticky real estate, for your own thread. You're a mod though so that is your prerogative. You could have labeled this thread "Pogues COVID-19 Discussion Thread" but you called it the Information thread instead. You didn't just give us an unmoderated thread. You labeled it misinformation and conspiracy theories. You admit your bias in the quotes above, but you peddle your bias as fact. This is not a free market for ideas, it is you abusing your authority to push YOUR take on this and spin anyone who disagrees as a conspiracy theorist. There was a need for some moderation, and there are certainly plenty of tin foil nuts pushing 5G nonsense that need to be kept in check. The idea of a fact based thread at the top is appealing, and I would whole heartedly support it if it was actually fact based and not your opinion based. You set the stage for conflict when you branded anyone who disagreed a conspiracy theorists or misinformation spreader.
It may only be a thread at the top of the misc section on BB.com, but it's a big world, there are alot of people making alot of choices. It would be a shame if someone literally died as a result of your choices. I do think you have good intentions, but you suffer from the exact same confirmation bias you accuse us of. Alot of powerful people have made some drastic choices based on this "overblown" event. Occams razor would suggest that the reaction to this virus is proportional to the threat.We are all gunna make it
-
-
03-07-2020, 08:58 PM #349
-
03-07-2020, 09:23 PM #350
it's not as bad as the News makes it-but I'm just not saying to not be cautious cleaning you're but plug rings daily is a must *******s!
MR.PHF '09
“Do you see over yonder, friend Sancho, thirty or forty hulking giants? I intend to do battle with them and slay them.”- Don Quixote
''Damn right I like the life I live
'Cause I went from negative to positive
And it's all Good..."
"Friends come and go but Enemies Accumulate"
"Zero tolerance Crew" ZERO, NADA !!!!
-
03-07-2020, 09:27 PM #351
-
03-07-2020, 09:29 PM #352
-
-
03-07-2020, 10:05 PM #353
-
03-08-2020, 12:41 AM #354
Well now there doing testing more aggressively,and as of now 105,000 confirmed cases world wide .
Probably more like millions infected if we were all tested . I’d say this virus is going to wipe out the economy at minimumMake Misc great again
-
03-08-2020, 01:29 AM #355
It. I like the hospital that keeps the temperature high. It must be a healthy place. It. Referring to places. He even specifically says outside...the fukking body further on.
Please examine your argument. You have tied yourself to your argument. You are not your argument man, abandon this schit.Virtue is its own reward.
-
03-08-2020, 01:51 AM #356
not sheriff srs and mild strawman.
How about the fact that I finished school in 2019 and was too broke to do anything but unfortunately move back to my parents who are toxic and controlling little *******s that have traumatized me a fuk ton over the years. I'm not even allowed to go out for a drink or stay out past 12 if I want to lvei here. Found a job in October that I very much appreciate and lucked out on to an extent but my start date is late 2020. Now I have been working a factory job since February. I make ice cream. I finally was in a financial situation where I can move out while living in the same city, which would no doubt piss my parents off. They don't care if I move out for my October job which is in a different city. Public perception of coronavirus means in all likelihood that demand for ice cream is going to tank. Meaning my hours are going to be slashed. Already applied to a few McDonald's
-
-
03-08-2020, 03:20 AM #357
-
03-08-2020, 04:59 AM #358Survival. When the jungle tears itself down and builds itself into something new. Guys like you and me, we end up dead. Doesn’t really mean anything. Or, if we happen to live through it, well that doesn’t mean anything either.
-
03-08-2020, 08:09 AM #359
-
03-08-2020, 08:12 AM #360
Bookmarks