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Thread: Corona

  1. #661
    Registered User Plateauplower's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    Yeah you don't get 1,300 in a day or 80k in three months during a worldwide lockdown with a mortality rate of the seasonal flu. And I agree there are uncounted deaths, some of these tests take so long to come back people die before they get test results for example. Some aren't tested. So we're comparing tested and confirmed covid cases (in a nation with a yuge lack of testing capacity) (in like 2-3 weeks total) to inflated year long estimated flu numbers.

    We really need to stop trying to compare to flu in any way.
    You can get those numbers with a very low mortality rate, it all depends on the actual caseload. This virus seems to be much more communicable than typical influenza virus is, which would make sense considering the complete lack of immunity, long incubation period, and number of mild/asymptomatic cases resulting in increased spread. Many in the medical field had observed increased mortality rates as far back as early January from "pneumonia" and causes consistent with this disease before it was "a thing" here officially. Pretty sure I had it in mid January and experienced dry cough (uncontrollable coughing fits, but primarily at night), shortness of breath, not sure about a fever, I never checked. I did take a few baths when I was sick which is usually because I'm chilled and achy from a fever...
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  2. #662
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    Originally Posted by acrawlingchaos View Post
    The entire study was posted, the entire was paragraph was quoted. Obtuse as f*ck and dishonest as f*ck.
    I said the study pointed out that they believed it was comparable to a bad flu system. The clinical consequences would be fairly close.
    Which is not what it said.

    The sentence dealing with that clearly indicates it may be closer to that than to sars or mers.

    Yes, it may be closer to 0.1% than to 10% or 36%

    Originally Posted by acrawlingchaos View Post
    So the 92000 influenza deaths meant nothing to you?
    You claimed "The 2017/18 season had 92000 deaths."

    Might want to check those numbers
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season...-2017-2018.htm

    Originally Posted by acrawlingchaos View Post
    And you really think the quasi half assed quarantine is the least bit effective?
    Yeah I'm sure that all schools and colleges and sports and most businesses canceled and closed for weeks on end does nothing...

    Good God man.

    Originally Posted by acrawlingchaos View Post
    I take this very seriously, I just think this is over hyped. That's very clear with people shouting out 3% deathrates and deathtolls in the millions. Pure irresponsibility.
    So you're saying we need to start quarantining for real and not half ass. Interesting.

    What do you suggest we do to crack down and make this quarantine actually work? Make grocery stores trunk delivery only? Prohibit walking on sidewalks?
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  3. #663
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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    The sentence dealing with that clearly indicates it may be closer to that than to sars or mers.

    Yes, it may be closer to 0.1% than to 10% or 36%
    :thumbsup: gif


    You claimed "The 2017/18 season had 92000 deaths."

    Might want to check those numbers
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season...-2017-2018.htm
    95% u 45000-92000 deaths for that season according to my CDC link.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html


    Yeah I'm sure that all schools and colleges and sports and most businesses canceled and closed for weeks on end does nothing... Good God man.
    That's the part that isn't half assed

    So you're saying we need to start quarantining for real and not half ass. Interesting.
    No, I said the quarantine was half assed. I'm against any mandated quarantining from a rights perspective.

    What do you suggest we do to crack down and make this quarantine actually work? Make grocery stores trunk delivery only? Prohibit walking on sidewalks?
    I think those who are most vulnerable should self quarantine. I don't think it should be federally mandated.

    .... but for instance having the limited stores that are open limit there hours so the only place people can shop is packed to the f*cking gills every time.... seems pretty f*cking stupid.










    And strong edit... if you don't want to discuss this with me.... don't. But don't tell me to leave asshat.
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  4. #664
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    Originally Posted by acrawlingchaos View Post
    :thumbsup: gif


    45000-92000 deaths for that season according to my CDC link.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html


    I never said that did nothing jackass. That's the part that isn't half assed "rolleyes:

    No, I said the quarantine was half assed. I'm against any mandated quarantining from a rights perspective.

    I think those who are most vulnerable should self quarantine. I don't think it should be federally mandated.

    .... but for instance having the limited stores that are open limit there hours so the only place people can shop is packed to the f*cking gills every time.... seems pretty f*cking stupid.
    "The overall burden of influenza for the 2017-2018 season was an estimated 45 million influenza illnesses, 21 million influenza-associated medical visits, 810,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 61,000 influenza-associated deaths"

    From the link you just posted.

    Estimated of course. Over the course of a full season

    Originally Posted by acrawlingchaos View Post
    I think those who are most vulnerable should self quarantine. I don't think it should be federally mandated.
    Whoa there...what is the federally mandated quarantine?
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  5. #665
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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    Whoa there...what is the federally mandated quarantine?
    The POTUS has recently stated he is considering a federal mandate. I don't think this should happen.


    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/whi...ticut-n1171186


    Several states are already under mandated quarantine.
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  6. #666
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    Originally Posted by mtpockets View Post
    We need more images and jokes to lighten up the mood in this thread.
    It has gone sideways and needs your immediate assistance ASAP!

    Helllllllp!
    sums it up a thread will start off promising and then turn into name calling..
    The easiest way to tell when an argument has no merit is when the protagonist mixes in some personal insults.
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  7. #667
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    Originally Posted by acrawlingchaos View Post
    The POTUS has recently stated he is considering a federal mandate. I don't think this should happen.


    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/whi...ticut-n1171186


    Several states are already under mandated quarantine.
    Right. There is no federal mandate, and I don't think there will be.

    Note that the article you linked is already 9 days old.

    And it says

    "WASHINGTON —President Donald Trump backed away from earlier comments Saturday that he was considering enforcing a quarantine in the New York, New Jersey and Connecticut area after state officials questioned whether Trump had the authority to implement a quarantine and accused him of creating confusion."

    I'm not sure you are reading these links you provide lol. Don't get your news from MSM headlines. That's just not a reliable way of doing things
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    Originally Posted by x-trainer ben View Post
    We need more images and jokes to lighten up the mood in this thread.
    It has gone sideways and needs your immediate assistance ASAP!

    Helllllllp!
    Personally, I'm enjoying the discussion. We just need to tone down the personal attacks; it doesn't help get your point across.
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  9. #669
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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    Right. There is no federal mandate, and I don't think there will be.

    Note that the article you linked is already 9 days old.

    And it says

    "WASHINGTON —President Donald Trump backed away from earlier comments Saturday that he was considering enforcing a quarantine in the New York, New Jersey and Connecticut area after state officials questioned whether Trump had the authority to implement a quarantine and accused him of creating confusion."

    I'm not sure you are reading these links you provide lol. Don't get your news from MSM headlines. That's just not a reliable way of doing things
    I said I don't think we should have a federal mandate. I never said there was one. It's being considered and that's scary as f*ck. States have already made these mandates and it isn't a far stretch for the POTUS to reconsider. We both know the POTUS is wishy washy as f*ck.

    So if you could stop misrepresenting what I say, that would be fantastic.


    Originally Posted by bustasinclair View Post
    Personally, I'm enjoying the discussion. We just need to tone down the personal attacks; it doesn't help get your point across.
    I do too, but I get weary of people that want to catch you in a gotcha moment, especially when they intentionally misrepresent what you said in a feeble attempt to make you look stupid. I, in earnest, have an interest in the numbers.
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    Originally Posted by acrawlingchaos View Post
    I said I don't think we should have a federal mandate. I never said there was one. It's being considered and that's scary as f*ck. States have already made these mandates and it isn't a far stretch for the POTUS to reconsider. We both know the POTUS is wishy washy as f*ck.

    So if you could stop misrepresenting what I say, that would be fantastic.


    I do too, but I get weary of people that want to catch you in a gotcha moment, especially when they intentionally misrepresent what you said in a feeble attempt to make you look stupid. I, in earnest, have an interest in the numbers.
    I don't think we should nuke Brazil over this. lol


    There was never any real threat of a federally mandated quarantine. The only real reference to it is 9+ days old, only referenced a very small hotspot, and was already walked back. There's no reason to even be talking about it at this point, it wasn't goign to happen didn't happen and won't happen

    I agree, intentionally misrepresenting closer to 0.1 than to 10 as meaning close to 0.1 is not helpful
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    Originally Posted by Farley1324 View Post
    I don't think we should nuke Brazil over this.
    See... common ground. I knew we would eventually find it.

    There was never any real threat of a federally mandated quarantine. The only real reference to it is 9+ days old, only referenced a very small hotspot, and was already walked back. There's no reason to even be talking about it at this point, it wasn't goign to happen didn't happen and won't happen
    I'm glad you're confident.

    I agree, intentionally misrepresenting closer to 0.1 than to 10 as meaning close to 0.1 is not helpful
    Not what happened.
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    Now, Togo, on the other hand
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    Originally Posted by OldFartTom View Post
    A comparison of Covid to seasonal flu just doesn't make sense, they're too dissimilar for that to be helpful
    Too true. Just saw the stat's for my state and the 19-20 flu season has killed 91 people and covid is at 335 and counting...

    On the upside Gilead has a potential cure (not that anti malarial cocktail BS either) in clinical trials and it's way further along than others. Like a year ahead of the pack.
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    Here's some sobering info. I understand that flu has multiple strains and a flu vaccine is typically for 4 strains *predicted in advance* to be most common ones by watching the previous Southern Hemisphere flu season - so will always be a bit hit and miss, but the 2017 to 2018 US flu season the vaccine was described retrospectively as "a good match" and the efficacy (vaccine effectiveness) was 40%.

    "This means the flu vaccine reduced a person’s overall risk of having to seek medical care at a doctor’s office for flu illness by 40%".

    40% is regarded as good for a flu vaccine

    Even though I hope for better % for a Covid vaccine (given very few strains currently) let's not see vaccination as a magic bullet. Given how contagious this is, for herd immunity to work we'd need a very high proportion of population vaccination and previous exposure.

    (Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season..._1534865908403)
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    Last edited by mtpockets; 04-06-2020 at 10:24 AM.
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    Originally Posted by Corbi View Post
    Not saying she is not a crackpot but the videos were made by others showing hospitals right now and asking questions of ambulance drivers, kind of hard to refute actual video evidence.
    Why ambulance drivers and not doctors who are actually studying the cases? Why do people who half the time rant about "Fake News of the Mainstream Media" then go wasting their time on crackpot sites and act like those are perfectly credible?
    I'm out, standing in my field.

    64 and still a newbie.
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    Originally Posted by acrawlingchaos View Post
    To be clear, I take covid seriously and just feel the U.S. has overreacted and will end up causing more harm than good by shutting the nation down.
    I don't think there is any question that the lock downs have a serious economic cost. In the cold light of reality, individual human life doesn't have infinite value, but likewise that value is not zero. The U.S. Office of Management and Budget puts the value of a human life in the range of $7 million to $9 million. For the sake of argument then the cost of an unmitigated epidemic in the US is somewhere around 8 Million * 2.24 Million (Estimated U.S. death toll with no action taken) = 17.92 Trillion. If we manage the worst case estimate from the White House of 240,000 dead then the cost is 1.92 Trillion for a savings of 16 Trillion. So even from a pure dollars and cents perspective any response that costs less than 16 Trillion is worth it.

    NOTE: The above argument ignores all morality and any intrinsic value of human life related to this decision.
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    Well, a lot has been learned since the lockdown started. One thing of immeasurable value is the discovery that sheep like playing on play area merry go rounds / roundabouts. A "revolution" for farming?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wal...und-roundabout
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    Originally Posted by blue9steel View Post
    I don't think there is any question that the lock downs have a serious economic cost. In the cold light of reality, individual human life doesn't have infinite value, but likewise that value is not zero. The U.S. Office of Management and Budget puts the value of a human life in the range of $7 million to $9 million. For the sake of argument then the cost of an unmitigated epidemic in the US is somewhere around 8 Million * 2.24 Million (Estimated U.S. death toll with no action taken) = 17.92 Trillion. If we manage the worst case estimate from the White House of 240,000 dead then the cost is 1.92 Trillion for a savings of 16 Trillion. So even from a pure dollars and cents perspective any response that costs less than 16 Trillion is worth it.

    NOTE: The above argument ignores all morality and any intrinsic value of human life related to this decision.
    There is also the unknown of what the economic impact of unmitigated sickness would cost. If we did nothing or did very little "wash your hands and stay home when obviously sick" and it spread like wildfire and a lot of people got sick etc, there would be some degree of pullback from a lot of people, things slowing down, businesses doing some things differently, market falling...so it's all a matter of degree and shades of gray.

    We'd never 'do nothing' we'd just 'do less' and the economic impact of the pandemic could be felt to some degree as a consequence even if we didn't administratively shut things down.

    Likely specifics will be argued and models will be made and countries will be compared etc etc for years and decades to come.
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    Originally Posted by bustasinclair View Post
    Personally, I'm enjoying the discussion. We just need to tone down the personal attacks; it doesn't help get your point across.
    I'm enjoying the discussion as well. I've learned so much just from AC's and Farleys salvos! Serious. I can definitely see and understand BOTH positions. Carry on gentlemen.
    "Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by a$$holes"

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    UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has coronavirus, has been taken to intensive care
    Air Force Veteran 1976 - 1999

    Real Heroes don't wear capes.

    Keep your squats low and standards high.

    You are not stuck at home, you are safe at home.
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    Originally Posted by mtpockets View Post
    UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has coronavirus, has been taken to intensive care
    I'm sure this is mostly precautionary. A common citizen would likely not see ICU unless they were extremely critical. I hope I'm correct.
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    Originally Posted by bustasinclair View Post
    I'm sure this is mostly precautionary. A common citizen would likely not see ICU unless they were extremely critical. I hope I'm correct.
    IDK. I could see admitting him to the hospital or giving him oxygen as a precaution, but admitting to the ICU? I'd expect that, for PR reasons if nothing else, they would not do that unless they had to...

    Good luck guy
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    Thanks, on Spread.

    Originally Posted by mtpockets View Post





    sums it up a thread will start off promising and then turn into name calling..
    The easiest way to tell when an argument has no merit is when the protagonist mixes in some personal insults.
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    Current research has now estimated a CFR of .66%. This is down from 3.4%, 2% and 1% of previous studies.

    Study
    https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1327




    Media coverage
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/healt...ate/index.html


    https://thehill.com/changing-america...ate-lower-than
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    Originally Posted by acrawlingchaos View Post
    Current research has now estimated a CFR of .66%. This is down from 3.4%, 2% and 1% of previous studies.

    Study
    https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1327




    Media coverage
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/healt...ate/index.html


    https://thehill.com/changing-america...ate-lower-than
    The study found that it could take weeks for people to recover from coronavirus, which could magnify potential health care shortages: The longer it takes for people to get better, the longer they may need precious hospital space and resources.

    The average time from onset of symptoms to hospital discharge was about 25 days, researchers found, although patients might not have been hospitalized during the early days of their illness. Among those who succumbed to the virus, death came about 18 days after people started showing symptoms.
    Isn’t this the real concern with the virus, not just it’s potential mortality rate? Either way, these numbers are consistent with what we’ve known from the start - about a 0.6-1.5% fatality rate when healthcare systems aren’t overcrowded and further triage is necessary. The worry then is if 15-20% of cases are hospitalized and 5% of those need the ICU, what the potential CFR will be if hospitals are overcrowded. The Lancet also put out a study that estimated the death rate during the peak in Wuhan (with overrun hospitals) at 20%.
    I thought she’d be there holding daisies.
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    Originally Posted by 7Seconds View Post
    Isn’t this the real concern with the virus, not just it’s potential mortality rate? Either way, these numbers are consistent with what we’ve known from the start - about a 0.6-1.5% fatality rate when healthcare systems aren’t overcrowded and further triage is necessary. The worry then is if 15-20% of cases are hospitalized and 5% of those need the ICU, what the potential CFR will be if hospitals are overcrowded. The Lancet also put out a study that estimated the death rate during the peak in Wuhan (with overrun hospitals) at 20%.
    Reported CFR's are what started the hysterical meltdowns so I do believe it is important. Only recently has the CFR been placed this low and is based on estimates of asymptomatic cases (which is still likely to go up). As stated by professions, cfr is most likely to decrease as more people are tested and estimates of infected are increased.

    As far as I know, yes, the real concern is the impact on the health care system. How much of who we can care for is also largely impacted by lock downs across the nation. Studies show that infection rates skyrocket with chronic under staffing in hospitals and care diminishes. Information still coming out though and I still believe the over reaction is still hurting more than helping.
    Last edited by acrawlingchaos; 04-07-2020 at 06:19 AM.
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    Originally Posted by acrawlingchaos View Post
    Current research has now estimated a CFR of .66%. This is down from 3.4%, 2% and 1% of previous studies.

    Study
    https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1327




    Media coverage
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/healt...ate/index.html


    https://thehill.com/changing-america...ate-lower-than
    So only 6-7 times deadlier than seasonal flu.

    Could be worse, that's for sure.

    Of course, there's also no telling how many covid deaths have not been attributed to covid. When we look back in the future and use the modeling estimates we use for the flu that result in death numbers FAR higher than actual positive tests, it may look even different...

    Example:
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    "An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone.

    We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]

    A study by disease modelers at the University of Texas at Austin states that "Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we assume that 1 in 10 cases are tested and reported. If a county has detected only 1 case of COVID-19, there is a 51%
    chance that there is already a growing outbreak underway"
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    I think that the mortality of the virus will be below 1%, likely by a significant amount when it’s all over and they can get a better idea of the spread. I believe that anyone in an urban area who isn’t taking the most extreme measures will likely be infected whether they realize it or not. The death toll won’t take into account all of the deaths from other causes that could have been prevented without the pandemic. As mentioned above when the healthcare system is put under a burden like this, it negatively impacts the care across the board. Physical trauma, and other diseases/conditions might also result in death as the level of care is impacted by the virus response. Severe burns have a high mortality risk from secondary infection for example, don’t want to have a bunch of compromised skin while in a hospital with limited/reused PPE for example. Not going to get the best emergency treatment if everyone is scrambling to save people crashing from covid.
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    Originally Posted by acrawlingchaos View Post
    Information still coming out though and I still believe the over reaction is still hurting more than helping.
    Ideally an educated and rational society would work together to slow the transmission of this disease, recommendations would be put forth and each individual would work those into thier lives with no use of force necessary. I wish there was a more Libertarian answer but these are the times when collectivist action results in the greatest gain for each individual in the society. 'Don't spread an illness' seems like an universal prerogative. I see "Life" as our first and most important right. Collectivist action to protect that right seems almost... Libertarian.

    I'm much more discontented by the way the government is handling the economic downfall especially when it comes to huge loans, bailouts and such. I believe money needs to be spent to save the 70-80% of people that live paycheck to paycheck. And, I feel it's reasonable to assume small businesses do not have the resources to deal with 2-3 months of lost revenue. But, I'm not really shedding tears for the companies that are yielding billions in revenue. A company should be self-sufficient when their cash-flow rivals the size of a small country's tax income, not reliant on their lobbying infrastructure to secure bailouts.
    I thought she’d be there holding daisies.
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