Corona

[Jtbny]

When will it have run its course?

Rhetorical/unanswerable question at this time.

End of year? IDK - when it becomes seasonal and 80% that survived have immunity? IDK. That's really not the point I was making though.

[Farley1324]

End of year? IDK - when it becomes seasonal and 80% that survived have immunity? IDK. That's really not the point I was making though.

I understand.

But if the 'run its course' is, say, 2 years away, how much of a difference, really, will, like 3 weeks of differing action for one small country be? Sweden, the whole country, their population is less than the state of Illinois

We'd learn more about the results of differing actions just be comparing states within the US, I think. Fewer variables. But even that is pretty unclear.

[Mark1T]

End of year? IDK - when it becomes seasonal and 80% that survived have immunity? IDK. That's really not the point I was making though.

Possible by year-end as new and viable treatments become available. Of course a vaccine won't be available for some time. But, treatments could somewhat control the virus.

[Mark1T]

Study with 1,061 patients treated with HCQ.

Interpretation

The HCQ-AZ combination, when started immediately after diagnosis, is a safe and efficient treatment for COVID-19, with a mortality rate of 0.5% in older patients. It avoids worsening and clears virus persistence and contagiosity in most cases.

https://www.mediterranee-infection.c...ACT-v-2-GB.pdf

Credit: "Blasting" from another thread.

[Jtbny]

I understand.

But if the 'run its course' is, say, 2 years away, how much of a difference, really, will, like 3 weeks of differing action for one small country be? Sweden, the whole country, their population is less than the state of Illinois

We'd learn more about the results of differing actions just be comparing states within the US, I think. Fewer variables. But even that is pretty unclear.

Sweden essentially did what many are suggesting. We can take that data and compare it to countries that took different measures and see what the eventual outcome was factoring in the different variables. Not sure why it matters what their population is if we are looking at countries that are similar in size. When looking at all the variables you can account for ones that are significant vs. ones that aren't to build a model.

I disagree with your state analogy. There are different variables but I wouldn't say fewer. I'd make the argument that states can be just as different from one another as EU countries are to each other.

Either way having one country do this, IMO, is a good social experiment on a smaller scale, and their success/failure can give the world a better understanding and information to plan for the eventual next one. If you don't think it's valuable that's your opinion and I respect that.

[Jtbny]

Possible by year-end as new and viable treatments become available. Of course a vaccine won't be available for some time. But, treatments could somewhat control the virus.

Lets hope. I'm not sold on the effectiveness of HCQ but that's only because I'd like to see much more data. If I was on deaths door, sure why not, but if I was suffering but would survive I'd pass on that treatment personally. Easy to say sitting at my desk though

I will say there are tons of companies working on this and I'm optimistic we see something sooner rather than later. The question I have is what have we learned and how will we move forward. It's no secret here that I despise Trump but one thing I'm totally on board with is his policies on China and bringing things back to this country (although I do differ some on how he goes about it). The US needs to take a good look at our preparations and supply chains on meds/equipment to ensure we control our destiny here instead of foreign countries. Just my .02 though.

[blue9steel]

But if the 'run its course' is, say, 2 years away, how much of a difference, really, will, like 3 weeks of differing action for one small country be? Sweden, the whole country, their population is less than the state of Illinois

Given exponential growth three weeks could make a big difference. For a quick estimate view the difference between New York and Los Angeles.

[Brackneyc]

When will it have run its course?

.

Never. Governments have found a way to get billions of people to comply. The government doctors have already stated that the virus is likely to return in the fall.

I’m not a conspiracy theorist. This isn’t a conspiracy. It’s right out in the open.

We have created policy, backed with its own specific language and Universally accepted protocols.

People are willingly, and without much hesitation, locking themselves away.

The possibility of creating a data bank of those affected is being discussed.

Bye bye medical privacy.

Trading liberty for safety. There’s a school of thought About that.

[Farley1324]

Given exponential growth three weeks could make a big difference. For a quick estimate view the difference between New York and Los Angeles.

After a year or two, though?

Like, is NY really going to have a huge number more infected and dead...two years from now...because they got hit three weeks before CA did?

Maybe the seasonal thing will be big and 3 weeks of difference (lockdown three weeks sooner) will make a difference because it will be 3 weeks of winter/spring weather during the height of transmission?

[blue9steel]

After a year or two, though?

Like, is NY really going to have a huge number more infected and dead...two years from now...because they got hit three weeks before CA did?

Maybe the seasonal thing will be big and 3 weeks of difference (lockdown three weeks sooner) will make a difference because it will be 3 weeks of winter/spring weather during the height of transmission?

Partially depends on whether the medical system gets overwhelmed, that's when death rates really go up. Lots of other factors. Too hard to model right now:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ovid-19-model/

[Mark1T]

Personal experience from a poster:

my mother (68 y/o) was diagnosed with covid-19 4 days ago. she thought it was just a cold and went to see the doctor, but after some tests and an xray, they saw she had pneumonia. the doc tested her for covid and put her on Hydroxychloroquine and an antibiotic to be on the safe side. the test came back positive 4 days later but by then, she was feeling a bit better and the pneumonia was slowly subsiding. she's still in the hospital and they'll be monitoring her for about another week.

i havent seen any studies showing recovery rates from Hydroxychloroquine/AZ combo vs AZ only, but the combo helped my mother and i'm thankful that the doc was willing to try the drug

[induced_drag]

I have a few friends that want the "government" to step in and declare martial law. I am very skeptical of the dangerous precedent of enormous power grabs and people lining up to give away rights.

We can think back to things like the Patriot act, and realize that now almost 20 years later, the government has not given back the rights it took and pretty much every American should know they have zero assumed rights to 'privacy'.

Anyway, I was thinking of a way to explain my thoughts to him and I often think the amazing sacrifices of the WWII generation who gave so much to ensure the freedoms of this country (and the world). Over 400,000 us soldiers died in WWII. So I told him that until the death toll starts to approach 1,000,000 (which would be about the same percentage of the population we lost in WWII) I could not in good faith agree to set this country on a path where we lined up to give the government full control over our lives. (which they may never give back fully)

Kind of food for the thought, but it does offer an interesting way to frame this crisis.

[Farley1324]

I have a few friends that want the "government" to step in and declare martial law.

You need new friends.

[Mark1T]

I have a few friends that want the "government" to step in and declare martial law. I am very skeptical of the dangerous precedent of enormous power grabs and people lining up to give away rights.

We can think back to things like the Patriot act, and realize that now almost 20 years later, the government has not given back the rights it took and pretty much every American should know they have zero assumed rights to 'privacy'.

Anyway, I was thinking of a way to explain my thoughts to him and I often think the amazing sacrifices of the WWII generation who gave so much to ensure the freedoms of this country (and the world). Over 400,000 us soldiers died in WWII. So I told him that until the death toll starts to approach 1,000,000 (which would be about the same percentage of the population we lost in WWII) I could not in good faith agree to set this country on a path where we lined up to give the government full control over our lives. (which they may never give back fully)

Kind of food for the thought, but it does offer an interesting way to frame this crisis.

Martial Law never crossed my mind.

Here is a pretty good read on how US cities tried to halt the spread of the Spanish Flu in 1918. It is fascinating the similarities with what is going on currently. 675,000 Americans died from the Spanish Flu and approximately 50 million worldwide.

In 1918, social distancing took the form of quarantine zones, isolation wards and prohibitions on mass gatherings; where they were properly enforced, these measures slowed the spread.

https://www.history.com/news/spanish...esponse-cities

[smokinal]

[Farley1324]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/lI3kMxb.png[/ig]

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...ociated-Deaths

[Jtbny]

Martial Law never crossed my mind.

Here is a pretty good read on how US cities tried to halt the spread of the Spanish Flu in 1918. It is fascinating the similarities with what is going on currently. 675,000 Americans died from the Spanish Flu and approximately 50 million worldwide.

In 1918, social distancing took the form of quarantine zones, isolation wards and prohibitions on mass gatherings; where they were properly enforced, these measures slowed the spread.

https://www.history.com/news/spanish...esponse-cities

We are watching history repeat itself but what have we learned? I keep hearing Trump set a target date (now its May 1). Your article referenced masks and I've been thinking this for a while; they will provide a false sense of safety when we "reopen" which might usher in the next wave bringing way more deaths and tighter lock down measures. I just don't understand why we are even discussing lifting the measures at this point. History shows us the first wave was bad but it was the proceeding waves that did the most damage.

Believing masks were what saved them the first time, businesses and theater owners fought back against public gathering orders. As a result, San Francisco ended up suffering some of the highest death rates from Spanish flu nationwide. The 2007 analysis found that if San Francisco had kept all of its anti-flu protections in place through the spring of 1919, it could have reduced deaths by 90 percent.

[Farley1324]

I just don't understand why we are even discussing lifting the measures at this point.

Because people have sht to do. We aren't staying home forever

[Jtbny]

Because people have sht to do. We aren't staying home forever

Show me where I said "forever". I'll wait.

[Farley1324]

Show me where I said "forever". I'll wait.

ok

New answer


"Because people have sht to do."

[Mark1T]

We are watching history repeat itself but what have we learned? I keep hearing Trump set a target date (now its May 1). Your article referenced masks and I've been thinking this for a while; they will provide a false sense of safety when we "reopen" which might usher in the next wave bringing way more deaths and tighter lock down measures. I just don't understand why we are even discussing lifting the measures at this point. History shows us the first wave was bad but it was the proceeding waves that did the most damage.

I hope we have learned to make better masks! If we learn anything, which we will this time, is to put more money into anti-viral and bio technology for much faster treatments. Not cures, but effective treatments so that it could prevent a total shut-down of the economy. And, stock-pile treatments and know the logistics of fast distribution.

I hope we don't open too fast and I agree, it could open a new wave.

[Farley1324]

I hope we have learned to make better masks! If we learn anything, which we will this time, is to put more money into anti-viral and bio technology for much faster treatments. Not cures, but effective treatments so that it could prevent a total shut-down of the economy. And, stock-pile treatments and know the logistics of fast distribution.

I hope we don't open too fast and I agree, it could open a new wave.

I think the sooner we start to open, the easier it will be to do it slowly and in stages.

The BIG THING for spread, IMO, is that basically all schools and colleges long ago called it quits for face-to-face the rest of this semester. Most are out over summer, so we avoid that whole petri dish school spread thing until August/September. Lots of time to ease into the rest while the weather is nice

[x-trainer ben]

Well this is disturbing, just when you think that you are getting back to normal with this thing.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...nfections.html

Almost 200 new cases and one death were reported in the city-state on Friday
The increase in cases offers a warning to other countries about a second wave


Singapore reported almost 200 new coronavirus cases and one death Friday as a country previously seen as a model for tackling the disease battles a fast-moving second wave of infections.

The city-state was among the first places to report COVID-19 cases after the virus emerged in China, but kept the outbreak under control with a strict regime of testing and contact-tracing.

It has however seen a sharp surge in locally transmitted cases this month, prompting the government to impose tough curbs it had previously resisted, including the closure of most workplaces.

[Mark1T]

I think the sooner we start to open, the easier it will be to do it slowly and in stages.

The BIG THING for spread, IMO, is that basically all schools and colleges long ago called it quits for face-to-face the rest of this semester. Most are out over summer, so we avoid that whole petri dish school spread thing until August/September. Lots of time to ease into the rest while the weather is nice

Sounds reasonable.

Well this is disturbing, just when you think that you are getting back to normal with this thing.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...nfections.html

Almost 200 new cases and one death were reported in the city-state on Friday
The increase in cases offers a warning to other countries about a second wave


Singapore reported almost 200 new coronavirus cases and one death Friday as a country previously seen as a model for tackling the disease battles a fast-moving second wave of infections.

The city-state was among the first places to report COVID-19 cases after the virus emerged in China, but kept the outbreak under control with a strict regime of testing and contact-tracing.

It has however seen a sharp surge in locally transmitted cases this month, prompting the government to impose tough curbs it had previously resisted, including the closure of most workplaces.

More waves are scary, Ben. It just seems logical that that it will happen, some places more than others.

[blue9steel]

I hope some folks who actually know what they're doing are thinking about the re-opening issue. Here are some quick off the top of my head thoughts about it:

1) Anyone who has had a positive molecular test for having the virus can go back out 30 days after they stop exhibiting symptoms.
2) Anyone who gets an antibody test showing that they previously had the virus can go back 30 days after the test.
3) All businesses, government offices, nonprofits, religious organizations, etc. are required to deploy temperature sensors and prohibit the entry of any employee, member or customer who shows signs of a fever
4) Make available for voluntary use a contact tracing app wherein users can report their positive status and receive notice of others they have been in contact with who have been positive
5) All counties to be rated on a five point scale for the level of current infection & medical resource use with escalating social distancing restrictions based on the rating, up to and including full lockdowns. Being adjacent to a hot zone raises your threat level.
6) In order to enable #5 perform population sampling tests to ensure you have enough statistical data to make reasonable decisions
7) Any job that can be done remotely must be
8) Large gatherings such as sports events, concerts, marathons, etc. remain banned nation wide until there is widespread deployment of a vaccine
9) Universal mask wearing requirements
10) Any business, office, etc. that wants to re-open must have an infection mitigation plan filed with the local government and take all reasonable steps to lower the risk level. (Cleaning protocols, sneeze guards, distancing measures, lower capacity limits, etc.)

The overall goal should be to open up the economy as much as possible while keeping the number of cases below the medical capacity thresholds, with the understanding that there is a lag time of several weeks.

[x-trainer ben]

I hope some folks who actually know what they're doing are thinking about the re-opening issue. Here are some quick off the top of my head thoughts about it:

1) Anyone who has had a positive molecular test for having the virus can go back out 30 days after they stop exhibiting symptoms.
2) Anyone who gets an antibody test showing that they previously had the virus can go back 30 days after the test.
3) All businesses, government offices, nonprofits, religious organizations, etc. are required to deploy temperature sensors and prohibit the entry of any employee, member or customer who shows signs of a fever
4) Make available for voluntary use a contact tracing app wherein users can report their positive status and receive notice of others they have been in contact with who have been positive
5) All counties to be rated on a five point scale for the level of current infection & medical resource use with escalating social distancing restrictions based on the rating, up to and including full lockdowns. Being adjacent to a hot zone raises your threat level.
6) In order to enable #5 perform population sampling tests to ensure you have enough statistical data to make reasonable decisions
7) Any job that can be done remotely must be
8) Large gatherings such as sports events, concerts, marathons, etc. remain banned nation wide until there is widespread deployment of a vaccine
9) Universal mask wearing requirements
10) Any business, office, etc. that wants to re-open must have an infection mitigation plan filed with the local government and take all reasonable steps to lower the risk level. (Cleaning protocols, sneeze guards, distancing measures, lower capacity limits, etc.)

The overall goal should be to open up the economy as much as possible while keeping the number of cases below the medical capacity thresholds, with the understanding that there is a lag time of several weeks.

Awesome list, can you forward it to someone with influence .

[x-trainer ben]

Hi Ben, back on 1st March you started the thread you wrote
To return to your original post. I guess a lot has happened in the last month + or so and a lot has changed for most of us if not all of us.

Definitely back then I wouldn't imagine going into a bank, petrol station, grocery store wearing a mask and gloves and it being "normal"

I've always believed in hygiene like washing hands when come home from work, but never been indoors clean / outdoors dirty level of methodical hygiene like now.

Never before considered self haircutting (although can't source clippers at moment) and coming to terms with idea of working from home which I've always hated and avoided (or in my new situation job seeking from home)

Home workout without access to gym equipment is another change, I'm "comfortable" with headstand which never attempted before (still can't get frogstand right)

Those are just a very few things scratching the surface. Where do we even start, to answer your original question???

I don't know, really i was just hearing things at the time and wondering what others thought about this. Now i know much much more.

[Jtbny]

Hey Mods why was Farley banned? He adds a bunch to the discussion.

[blue9steel]

Awesome list, can you forward it to someone with influence .

For one guy and five minutes effort sure. A real list should likely be 10-20 pages of brainstorming that would then get transformed into hundreds of pages of top level planning. That would then get sent out to the various working groups for expansion into a serious effort that would fill multiple volumes. The whole thing would need funding, enabling legislation, coordination etc. It would be a massive undertaking across all levels of government and dozens of agencies. Sadly, I don't think we're going to see that kind of approach. I'm not normally a top down big government kind of guy, but this is one situation where it's actually somewhat appropriate.

[Jtbny]

I hope we have learned to make better masks! If we learn anything, which we will this time, is to put more money into anti-viral and bio technology for much faster treatments. Not cures, but effective treatments so that it could prevent a total shut-down of the economy. And, stock-pile treatments and know the logistics of fast distribution.

I hope we don't open too fast and I agree, it could open a new wave.

LOL have you seen some of the self made masks?

https://twtext.com/article/1246924870233001993