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  1. #211
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    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    I'm not going to get into it at length because its proven to be futile in the past... But this is absolutely not less deadly than the flu. By the most generous accounting using obviously fake/under reported data, its a full 10x the case fatality rate of the flu, really its more like 20x. I can't speak for your mom, but her levels of concern have not historically resulted in mass quarantines, economic impact, and travel restriction. So I'll stick to using the data on hand and the credible reports of actions taken to date over your moms levels of concern barometer.
    Lol i wasnt trying to use my mom as a barometer i was simply stating her opinion. 34,000 people died of the flu in the US last flu season and 64,000 the one prior. You are stating their is a possibility of 640,000+ people dying of the Corona Virus in the US if it starts spreading?
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  2. #212
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    Originally Posted by FatBallz View Post
    You would have to look at the death rates for the flu in China specifically, not the western world. In China the death rate for coronavirus is likely higher than it would be in the US or Europe (which hasn't been seen yet).
    The flu death rate in China is miniscule.
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  3. #213
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    Originally Posted by chalup View Post
    My mom has been the lab manager for a decent sized group of doctors for 50 years, and this is literally the first virus/pandemic that she isn't worried about. I really don't understand why everyone is freaking out when the total death rate is less than 3000 worldwide. It's less deadly than the flu. The only thing that is worrisome about it is how quickly it spreads and the incubation period. IDK i agree Trump is making a mistake though. I guess we have to just sit back and let it play out.
    No clue. The death rate outside of China/Iran is not out of the norm. Problem is we live in a slocial emdia ge where everything is the end of the world.
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  4. #214
    Registered User kusok's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by AriGhold View Post
    Your response to the tweet is bringing up his swimming credentials? Lol. Trump is usually on point with his decision making but I think he’s making a mistake here! I pray he is not!
    Mistake in what?
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    Originally Posted by kusok View Post
    Mistake in what?
    Why put pence in charge when trump clearly has a better understanding of matters relating to science. Trump is going to solve this for us. Nobody has a better understanding of viruses!!
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    Remember all those people upset about Iran being on the travel ban list? Peperridge Farms remembers.....
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  9. #219
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    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    I'm not going to get into it at length because its proven to be futile in the past... But this is absolutely not less deadly than the flu. By the most generous accounting using obviously fake/under reported data, its a full 10x the case fatality rate of the flu, really its more like 20x. I can't speak for your mom, but her levels of concern have not historically resulted in mass quarantines, economic impact, and travel restriction. So I'll stick to using the data on hand and the credible reports of actions taken to date over your moms levels of concern barometer.
    Most of the estimates I have seen put the mortality rate at about 2% compared to 0.1% for the common flu, so it is both 20x more deadly than the flu and not really a huge threat.
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  10. #220
    Aware since 2004 Witrebel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by chalup View Post
    Lol i wasnt trying to use my mom as a barometer i was simply stating her opinion. 34,000 people died of the flu in the US last flu season and 64,000 the one prior. You are stating their is a possibility of 640,000+ people dying of the Corona Virus in the US if it starts spreading?
    Originally Posted by Jayarbie View Post
    Most of the estimates I have seen put the mortality rate at about 2% compared to 0.1% for the common flu, so it is both 20x more deadly than the flu and not really a huge threat.
    Yes, 640,000+ easily. Realize that the level of care required to keep the severe cases alive is significant. We don't have enough ventilators and oxygen tanks to support them. The 640,000 doesn't even account for the severe cases that don't receive proper care due to system overload. The effective mortality rate is a function of the care provided. Look at Iran right now as an example.

    Some of the worst case modeling I've seen based on the data we have puts an upper bound at around 25 million dead.
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bS6...UU6a8lQHv/view

    This shows all inputs to the model.
    Data Points (Inputs)
    Assumed Population Susceptible 327,200,000
    Assumed Daily Infection Rate % 19.56%
    Assumed Case Fatality Rate % 2.20%
    Assumed Requiring Intervention Case Fatality Rate % Without Treatment (Uncertain) 63%
    Assumed Asymptomatic Cases 1.20%
    Assumed Mild Cases (No Hospitalization) 77.70%
    Assumed Cases Requiring Intervention (o2 / Hospitalization) 21.10%
    Assumed Median Incubation Period (Asymptomatic) 4 Days
    Assumed Median Symptom Onset Period To Hospitalization 2 Days
    Assumed Median Illness Period (Symptomatic to recovered) 12 Days
    Assumed Median Illness Period (Symptomatic to death) 14 Days
    Assumed Avg Hospital Capacity Per 1,000 People 2.4
    Assumed Total National Hospital Capacity 785,280
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  11. #221
    📶 🔌🔋 99% LukeLissen's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    Yes, 640,000+ easily. Realize that the level of care required to keep the severe cases alive is significant. We don't have enough ventilators and oxygen tanks to support them. The 640,000 doesn't even account for the severe cases that don't receive proper care due to system overload. The effective mortality rate is a function of the care provided. Look at Iran right now as an example.

    Some of the worst case modeling I've seen based on the data we have puts an upper bound at around 25 million dead.

    It hasn't killed a single person in the US yet, has literally a 0.0% case fatality rate in the US for 60 confirmed cases, just like SARS was in 2003.

    There won't be 25 million dead Americans from it. There won't even be 25.
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  12. #222
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    Originally Posted by LukeLissen View Post
    It hasn't killed a single person in the US yet, has literally a 0.0% case fatality rate in the US for 60 confirmed cases, just like SARS was in 2003.

    There won't be 25 million dead Americans from it. There won't even be 25.
    He has a point. While he admitted he was telling the worst case scenario, the mortality rate would substantially increase as the healthcare system became stressed. The first fatality will come. Hopefully it doesn’t get out of hand but it absolutely could. This could just be the beginning. If it doesn’t get bad in the US, tho, the supply chain impact certainly will impact us very shortly.
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  13. #223
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    Originally Posted by SillieBazzillie View Post
    Ah, interesting about the private companies.

    To give you an idea about how my portfolio is balanced, between 2/23 and 2/26 I lost 2.2% vs about 7.1% for the DOW.

    Like I said, when we touch 24k I'll start pushing some back in.
    Since everyone is so interested Sillie's thoughts and reactions to all things finance, I'll keep this a running update until things normalize.

    For the 5 business days ended 2/27, the DOW lost 11.82% and sits at 25,766. Sillie's bond heavy portfolio (70/30) lost 3.34%.

    I expect more losses through the next few days and today and Monday to combine for at least another 1k points down. When/if the DOW breaks 24.5k I will re-allocate 6.5% more to stocks. And every subsequent 500 down another 6.5%. So if the market hits say 21.5k, I would be sitting at 75% stocks and 25% bonds/fixed instruments.

    I will also say that I believe a "natural" level for this market is around 22k - 23k.
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    Originally Posted by SillieBazzillie View Post
    Since everyone is so interested Sillie's thoughts and reactions to all things finance, I'll keep this a running update until things normalize.

    For the 5 business days ended 2/27, the DOW lost 11.82% and sits at 25,766. Sillie's bond heavy portfolio (70/30) lost 3.34%.

    I expect more losses through the next few days and today and Monday to combine for at least another 1k points down. When/if the DOW breaks 24.5k I will re-allocate 6.5% more to stocks. And every subsequent 500 down another 6.5%. So if the market hits say 21.5k, I would be sitting at 75% stocks and 25% bonds/fixed instruments.

    I will also say that I believe a "natural" level for this market is around 22k - 23k.
    This reminds me of the other time you wanted to keep a running total. But you never seem to care when the stock market is going UP. Why is that?
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    Angus McFife XIII badreligion's Avatar
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    Why the hell would Trump put Mike Pence in charge of this problem? Does Mike Pence have any experience in epidemiology?
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    Originally Posted by wesleysh21 View Post
    This reminds me of the other time you wanted to keep a running total. But you never seem to care when the stock market is going UP. Why is that?
    Ugh, when the market was going up I did go through my strategy, hence my heavy bond % as I laid out.

    This is not an anti-Trump thing, just that my strategy is to take profits when returns get into ridiculous levels and buy back in when losses get into ridiculous levels. It's all about being ok losing out on some potential upside to protect bigly gains.

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    Originally Posted by badreligion View Post
    Why the hell would Trump put Mike Pence in charge of this problem? Does Mike Pence have any experience in epidemiology?
    Do you think someone solely with the experience in epidemiology can manage and direct the entire operation?
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    Originally Posted by SillieBazzillie View Post
    Since everyone is so interested Sillie's thoughts and reactions to all things finance, I'll keep this a running update until things normalize.

    For the 5 business days ended 2/27, the DOW lost 11.82% and sits at 25,766. Sillie's bond heavy portfolio (70/30) lost 3.34%.

    I expect more losses through the next few days and today and Monday to combine for at least another 1k points down. When/if the DOW breaks 24.5k I will re-allocate 6.5% more to stocks. And every subsequent 500 down another 6.5%. So if the market hits say 21.5k, I would be sitting at 75% stocks and 25% bonds/fixed instruments.

    I will also say that I believe a "natural" level for this market is around 22k - 23k.

    Depending on what bonds and fix instruments you’re talking about that seems like a wise enough strategy at your age.


    I see no reason for you to wait for reallocation though, now is fine.
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    Originally Posted by gachase21 View Post
    Depending on what bonds and fix instruments you’re talking about that seems like a wise enough strategy at your age.


    I see no reason for you to wait for reallocation though, now is fine.
    Now?

    The market's going to drop more. Momentum is behind it and we're in correction territory. People have been waiting to take profits from last year. They're taking them now.

    I feel like my approach is pretty systematic and reasonable but if I see the momentum start to stop, I may push in more a little earlier. But I'm reasonably comfortable that we'll be at 24k before we're at 27k.

    But I could always be wrong.
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  20. #230
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    Originally Posted by SillieBazzillie View Post
    Now?

    The market's going to drop more. Momentum is behind it and we're in correction territory. People have been waiting to take profits from last year. They're taking them now.

    I feel like my approach is pretty systematic and reasonable but if I see the momentum start to stop, I may push in more a little earlier. But I'm reasonably comfortable that we'll be at 24k before we're at 27k.

    But I could always be wrong.

    You could be right or it could even be more.



    I look at it from a calculated risk and don’t over complicate it at this point.



    You got your 10%- reallocate and go- long term you will win.


    Maybe you miss out on 5 or 10 more, maybe you missed on opportunity and it recovers early.


    I personally think the market will wait until confirmation of 100% supply chain establishment before full recovery starts.

    We have South Korea and Taiwan to go still....


    I wouldn’t stress it myself though - take the 10-12 and run.


    Unless you are retiring in 5 years no reason to overcomplicate it.



    Or unless your credit market holdings are jacked.



    I guess It’s easy for me to speak from my platform with slight hypocrisy though, as I’m completely out of it.
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    The ceo banned all travel foreign and domestic yesterday. We’re a global organization with over 100k employees
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    Originally Posted by LatinoWarrior2 View Post
    The ceo banned all travel foreign and domestic yesterday. We’re a global organization with over 100k employees
    Yep. I predict the economy will retract by Q3, maybe even Q2.

    If this thing starts killing more people, forget about it.
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  23. #233
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    Originally Posted by SillieBazzillie View Post
    Yep. I predict the economy will retract by Q3, maybe even Q2.

    If this thing starts killing more people, forget about it.

    You forgot to blame Trump for the virus and stock market loss. Please correct your post immediately. Or the fat women in your av will “me too” you for racism and sexism.
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    Originally Posted by badreligion View Post
    Why the hell would Trump put Mike Pence in charge of this problem? Does Mike Pence have any experience in epidemiology?
    Do epidemiologists have any experience in government? Trump is a part of the government, so is Pence. Turn your TV off, it’s making you less smart (I’m trying to be polite here)
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    One thing most of my friends and I agree on even though we are not for same political party, corona virus is overplayed by media, it's not even dangerous it's just a new form of a cold and it's fine to not want that to spread out in the world but it is not the black plague or ebola,etc. If you happened to get the corona virus you would not die you would just have a cold unless your old or have complications in your immune system and health. Your more likely to get the flu and die from that than the corona virus especially if you are in america. Majority of coworkers hate trump but agree that corona virus is just media overplay trying to get fear mongering views/revenue.
    I just want to share the knowledge I have obtained throughout my life and hopefully change someone's life.
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  26. #236
    Angus McFife XIII badreligion's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Procta View Post
    Do you think someone solely with the experience in epidemiology can manage and direct the entire operation?
    It should be a team effort so unless Pence plans on bringing in a team .
    Al Bundy is my hero crew .

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    Originally Posted by kusok View Post
    Do epidemiologists have any experience in government? Trump is a part of the government, so is Pence. Turn your TV off, it’s making you less smart (I’m trying to be polite here)
    No most Epidemiologists don't have experience in government but they have experience in the exact problem government is trying to solve so unless Pence brings in a qualified team then it's pointless. You should really think for yourself and not tow the party line, you rip on the resident Lefties here yet you are just as brainwashed as them.
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  28. #238
    Habitual line stepper bezarker's Avatar
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    Pence Plan...
    How you gonna rip it like that son?
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  29. #239
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    Originally Posted by badreligion View Post
    It should be a team effort so unless Pence plans on bringing in a team .
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...ie-birx-117893
    #triggered

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  30. #240
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    Originally Posted by badreligion View Post
    Why the hell would Trump put Mike Pence in charge of this problem? Does Mike Pence have any experience in epidemiology?
    Probably to take the blame when the TDS squad blames republicans for not eliminating the virus by next tuesday
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