View Poll Results: Still going to gym or no!

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  1. #2101
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    Originally Posted by Vexidi View Post
    Personnel changes, more lockdowns and a 500 yuan bounty payment for those who report people with a fever. Sounds like the Chicoms have everything under control.

    $70 cash prizes to have your neighbors welded into their homes or shipped off for incarceration and, for all you know, incineration.

    Remember that whenever you're tempted to share personal information a little too freely with somebody you think you trust.
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  2. #2102
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    Starting to look like the next major outbreak will be either Japan or the UK...

    Cases popping up in widespread locations in Japan, Taxi driver and doctor with no direct connection to China
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  3. #2103
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    Originally Posted by ANumber1 View Post
    $70 cash prizes to have your neighbors welded into their homes or shipped off for incarceration and, for all you know, incineration.

    Remember that whenever you're tempted to share personal information a little too freely with somebody you think you trust.
    Tupac got it right; trust nobody.

    Originally Posted by triception View Post
    Starting to look like the next major outbreak will be either Japan or the UK...

    Cases popping up in widespread locations in Japan, Taxi driver and doctor with no direct connection to China
    Two Japanese taxi drivers have now tested positive. One of them in Tokyo.

  4. #2104
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    Originally Posted by Vexidi View Post
    Two Japanese taxi drivers have now tested positive. One of them in Tokyo.
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  5. #2105
    Duke of New York ANumber1's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Vexidi View Post
    Two Japanese taxi drivers have now tested positive. One of them in Tokyo.
    Also a surgeon in central Japan, and an elderly woman in Japan has died of pneumonia and was tested positive after her death.

    https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health-...-test-positive
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  6. #2106
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    Originally Posted by triception View Post
    RIP 2020 olympics
    Originally Posted by ANumber1 View Post
    Also a surgeon in central Japan, and an elderly woman in Japan has died of pneumonia and was tested positive after her death.

    https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health-...-test-positive
    Japan is the country to keep a close eye on considering its getting a bit of a foothold. It's a litmus test to see how much it can spread in a 1st world country with a solid health care system.

  7. #2107
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    Originally Posted by Vexidi View Post
    Japan is the country to keep a close eye on considering its getting a bit of a foothold. It's a litmus test to see how much it can spread in a 1st world country with a solid health care system.
    This, although their population density is a lot higher when compared to someplace like the US.

  8. #2108
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    Originally Posted by Vexidi View Post
    Japan is the country to keep a close eye on considering its getting a bit of a foothold. It's a litmus test to see how much it can spread in a 1st world country with a solid health care system.
    Possibly, but having an infected taxi driver in a city of 14 million is close to a worst case scenario for infecting people so we have to consider that when viewing it as a litmus test. If it doesn’t get out of control there we’re probably good to go in the rest of the developed world.
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  9. #2109
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    To put into perspective how sneaky this virus is and why we may not be seeing the true impact in places outside of China yet here's the timeline of the Japanese death:

    Jan 22nd - symptom onset
    Jan 28th - initial hospital visit
    Feb 1st - hospitalized and diagnosed with pneumonia
    Feb 12th - test administered for COVID-19
    Feb 13th - Death and positive result came back
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  10. #2110
    Aware since 2004 Witrebel's Avatar
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    I want to point out to you potatoes who are looking at the numbers from China and making judgement calls... ITS FRAUD.

    1) The recent change in definition of confirmed cases does explain the massive jump. But it also calls into question the running total. By itself this is nothing earth shattering.

    2) The NUMBER OF DEAD PEOPLE isn't something you can "define" with context. So that number shouldn't have jumped.

    3)Lets give them benefit of the doubt, and say that maybe they are now counting "clinically diagnosed" deaths in the dead number. It's absolutely absurd to think that suddenly the fatality rate perfectly matches the long running 2.1% average again.

    4) They flat out didn't release numbers for anywhere else in China yesterday, only the Hubei province. Imagine that reported number being 10x what it was.... That's the type of reality we are looking at.

    5) Clearly the numbers coming out of china are NOT accurate, the ratios are essentially meaningless as far as I'm concerned.

    Yes, what happens in Japan, Singapore, the UK, these are the places to watch. No, I do not have complete faith that even these modern countries are going to tell us the truth. If this thing is as contagious as it looks, any rational expert already knows "containment" is out the window. From a policy perspective, in that context, you are no longer fighting the spread of the virus, you are fighting the spread of panic.

    China's actions are consistent with this, increasingly severe lockdowns, lockdowns occurring in more disparate geographic areas.

    The US is only testing symptomatic patients with links to china. They are not testing literal evacuees with no symptoms. Come to the hospital and you have symptoms but no connection to other cases? BRB heres your test for the flu. Literally sticking our heads in the sand and pretending if we don't see it, it can't be happening.
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  11. #2111
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    Originally Posted by Anachron View Post
    This, although their population density is a lot higher when compared to someplace like the US.
    Yeah, but that's an average. Over 32% of the U.S. economy comes out of 1% of its counties holding less than 22% of its people. NYC alone is about 5% of GDP, and that's not including suburbs. Wall Street and the supporting businesses alone pay for something outrageous like 15% of New York State's entire budget.

    Those are the areas where people have the higher incomes that pay the taxes that keep poorer, less-dense areas up to Western standards, and that produce the demand for their products in industries like agriculture and mining.

    Basically, if this can spread effectively in dense first-world cities and we effectively shut down a major American city, the whole country is going to be on the struggle bus dealing with it. Try to imagine the level of disruption to the entire state of Texas if they have to switch off Houston for a bit.
    Last edited by ANumber1; 02-13-2020 at 07:20 AM.
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  12. #2112
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    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    I want to point out to you potatoes who are looking at the numbers from China and making judgement calls... ITS FRAUD.

    1) The recent change in definition of confirmed cases does explain the massive jump. But it also calls into question the running total. By itself this is nothing earth shattering.

    2) The NUMBER OF DEAD PEOPLE isn't something you can "define" with context. So that number shouldn't have jumped.

    3)Lets give them benefit of the doubt, and say that maybe they are now counting "clinically diagnosed" deaths in the dead number. It's absolutely absurd to think that suddenly the fatality rate perfectly matches the long running 2.1% average again.

    4) They flat out didn't release numbers for anywhere else in China yesterday, only the Hubei province. Imagine that reported number being 10x what it was.... That's the type of reality we are looking at.

    5) Clearly the numbers coming out of china are NOT accurate, the ratios are essentially meaningless as far as I'm concerned.

    Yes, what happens in Japan, Singapore, the UK, these are the places to watch. No, I do not have complete faith that even these modern countries are going to tell us the truth. If this thing is as contagious as it looks, any rational expert already knows "containment" is out the window. From a policy perspective, in that context, you are no longer fighting the spread of the virus, you are fighting the spread of panic.

    China's actions are consistent with this, increasingly severe lockdowns, lockdowns occurring in more disparate geographic areas.

    The US is only testing symptomatic patients with links to china. They are not testing literal evacuees with no symptoms. Come to the hospital and you have symptoms but no connection to other cases? BRB heres your test for the flu. Literally sticking our heads in the sand and pretending if we don't see it, it can't be happening.
    Regarding any developed countries reporting the truth...

    A big part of the Event 201 or whatever the pandemic simulation was called that was run in November was mitigating economic impact through censorship. We're already seeing this being implemented with the WHO recommendations from Google, Twitter, Instagram etc. They push users toward the WHO web pages and prevent hashtags related to the virus from trending.
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  13. #2113
    Aware since 2004 Witrebel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by ANumber1 View Post
    Yeah, but that's an average. Over 32% of the U.S. economy comes out of 1% of its counties holding less than 22% of its people. NYC alone is about 5% of GDP, and that's not including suburbs. Wall Street and the supporting businesses alone pay for something outrageous like 15% of New York State's entire budget.

    Those are the areas where people have the higher incomes that pay the taxes that keep poorer, less-dense areas up to Western standards, and that produce the demand for their products in industries like agriculture and mining.

    Basically, if this can spread effectively in dense first-world cities and we effectively shut down a major American city, the whole country is going to be on the struggle bus dealing with it.
    This is very true from the perspective of finance and economy. I am looking at this (under a worst case perspective) in terms of the levels of potential breakdown. It certainly won't be business as usual. We already know the economic impact is coming to some degree. But thats level 1, full continuity of our existing way of life. Level 2 would be severe financial breakdown, but no loss of essential goods and services. I.e. where does our food come from? Who works at power plants and how much personnel is required?

    We don't all own farms and have land to live off of if things go extremely south. People in cities depend on those counties that don't generate massive GDP. That's where food is coming from. It's basically the one thing that makes me think a total collapse won't happen. The places (cities) that are most likely to be decimated by this, are NOT the places where our essential goods and services come from.
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  14. #2114
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    Originally Posted by jtaylor2010 View Post
    Possibly, but having an infected taxi driver in a city of 14 million is close to a worst case scenario for infecting people so we have to consider that when viewing it as a litmus test. If it doesn’t get out of control there we’re probably good to go in the rest of the developed world.
    Exactly. The best outlook for us is the worst case scenario for them followed by effective containment.

  16. #2116
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    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    2) The NUMBER OF DEAD PEOPLE isn't something you can "define" with context. So that number shouldn't have jumped.
    This is incorrect. The deaths are contextual, because if you die of pneumonia but were not considered to have coronavirus, you did not count as a coronavirus death. Adding the cases adds the deaths.

    3)Lets give them benefit of the doubt, and say that maybe they are now counting "clinically diagnosed" deaths in the dead number. It's absolutely absurd to think that suddenly the fatality rate perfectly matches the long running 2.1% average again.
    I agree, but it's also true that a large number of patients who were not sick enough to receive treatment at all have probably gone undetected. We have no real way of estimating the true mortality rate of being infected and it's unreasonable to assume it's much higher than 2.1%, either. I've said before that I think the "the flu is worse" meme is irresponsible, but at this time, we really don't know at all what an apples-to-apples comparison would even be because there's so little clear information about what's really happening in China, what is being counted, etc.

    4) They flat out didn't release numbers for anywhere else in China yesterday, only the Hubei province. Imagine that reported number being 10x what it was.... That's the type of reality we are looking at.
    At least one outlet reported that Hubei changed their practice in order to align the data with other provinces, so it's possible - though by no means guaranteed - that we were already seeing the clinical diagnoses in the other data.

    5) Clearly the numbers coming out of china are NOT accurate, the ratios are essentially meaningless as far as I'm concerned.
    Agreed, per #3.

    The US is only testing symptomatic patients with links to china. They are not testing literal evacuees with no symptoms. Come to the hospital and you have symptoms but no connection to other cases? BRB heres your test for the flu. Literally sticking our heads in the sand and pretending if we don't see it, it can't be happening.
    At the same time, testing people with no symptoms is known to be so inaccurate as to be worthless, and running a specialized test on someone who has no circumstances that would point to coronavirus is a waste of limited public resources.

    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    This is very true from the perspective of finance and economy. I am looking at this (under a worst case perspective) in terms of the levels of potential breakdown. It certainly won't be business as usual. We already know the economic impact is coming to some degree. But thats level 1, full continuity of our existing way of life. Level 2 would be severe financial breakdown, but no loss of essential goods and services. I.e. where does our food come from? Who works at power plants and how much personnel is required?

    We don't all own farms and have land to live off of if things go extremely south. People in cities depend on those counties that don't generate massive GDP. That's where food is coming from. It's basically the one thing that makes me think a total collapse won't happen. The places (cities) that are most likely to be decimated by this, are NOT the places where our essential goods and services come from.
    This is a comforting fantasy, but "finance and economy" are the methods by which your essential goods and services are delivered to you. Hospitals, police, and firefighters in rural areas are subsidized by the taxes paid in wealthy cities and buy all their supplies through businesses that have vital operations there. Even back in the golden age of American manufacturing, every small town's police car was built in Detroit. Just because a farm exists doesn't mean they're going to do business with you or even that it will be possible to deliver their product to you if public services are struggling to get supplies or meet payroll to keep the roads safe, etc. Farms need chemicals and equipment that have to be delivered on trucks and trains and need fuel refined in facilities which are almost all located just outside of major cities in Louisiana, California, and Texas. Utilities like electricity are often only provided to poor and rural areas because governments require businesses to provide universal service in exchange for allowing them to have a charter at all. We've already recently seen rural areas in California have to be shut off for days at a time due to infrastructure problems.

    The reality of life in rural America without the wealth produced by urban America is basically a bunch of people freezing and/or sweltering their asses off while they try to grow enough food to survive on inefficient, undersupplied small farms, because their current lifestyle is supported not only by direct tax transfers but the economies of scale made possible by major markets. Those areas having to be self-sufficient and reverting to an agrarian economy like it's 1850 is a severe, life-threatening breakdown. A lot of farmers are already leveraged to the hilt by the trade war and it's not at all clear how well they can soak up any more chaos.

    I live in upstate New York. Every month I hear some potato claim that they think the taxes on their $100,000 house and $30,000 income is what keeps New York City afloat "because all the welfare". The reality is that downstate counties transfer, literally, a billion dollars upstate every year. When all the country villagers go down and apply for HEAP - emergency heating assistance provided by the state - so they don't turn into meat popsicles in their farmhouses, they have no clear concept of where that money is coming from or who pays to clear the snow off the one highway into town. That pattern plays out across the country. Small-town America is basically on life support, and often a government-subsidized retirement home for aging and obsolete workers. If the cash tap runs dry because Wall Street is disrupted, life could start looking pretty rough very quickly.
    Last edited by ANumber1; 02-13-2020 at 08:26 AM.
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    San Antonio has a case, person tested positive on the Air Force base, is housing those on a trip from China
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    Woah- that jump to 60k cases! I'm sure people are glad to be back to work in China! Also, why isn't the entire Hubei region locked down? 80% of cases are there and well over 90% of deaths are there as well.
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    Originally Posted by ANumber1 View Post
    The reality of life in rural America without the wealth produced by urban America is basically a bunch of people freezing and/or sweltering their asses off while they try to grow enough food to survive on inefficient small farms, because their current lifestyle is supported not only by direct tax transfers but the economies of scale made possible by major markets. Those areas having to be self-sufficient and reverting to an agrarian economy like it's 1850 is a severe, life-threatening breakdown.

    Small-town America is basically on life support, and often a government-subsidized retirement home for obsolete workers. If the cash tap runs dry, life will start looking third-world very quickly.
    Actually, I don't fully agree with this. Yes, it's true in some sense but only because of how we've structured things like farm subsidies, or the fact that society currently pays high wages to jobs that are deemed "important" (like designing an iPhone, for example). But if the sh!t truly hits the fan, there would be a rebalancing of the real and perceived worth of certain goods, services, and wages. Farmers would be able to charge an unsubsidized value for crops, a rural population density would be preferred for sustainability, etc. Meanwhile, we'd consider the worth of something like a "financial district" or a "computer coder" to be much less than the guy providing food, water, or critical services.

    In any true SHTF scenario society would re-configure to whatever model works best. Cities only survive because a very organized and complex civilization has been engineered to support them. It takes far less to upset the system to the point they break down than it does the average farmer. Also, the dude on Wall Street making $500K frequency trading or something is paying taxes, but isn't really producing anything. His "GDP" is just smoke and mirrors. True wealth, ultimately, is in tangible things produced.

    But it's really a matter of degrees. ONLY if enough things break down does the model change. Otherwise, people just go on as they have.
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    ^Yup lol @ farmers are gonna starve because no one is around to buy the food they produce. LOLOLOLOL if things were actually jacked up in a goofy scenario people are going to horde all sorts of food. Food prices skyrocket. Farmers ain't gonna die.
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    In a legit SHTF scenario the life of the average city dweller would be turned upside down far more than the average country bumpkin like myself. I've eaten possum before and its not bad.

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    Originally Posted by VoxExMachina View Post

    But it's really a matter of degrees. ONLY if enough things break down does the model change. Otherwise, people just go on as they have.
    Originally Posted by ANumber1 View Post
    This is incorrect. The deaths are contextual, because if you die of pneumonia but were not considered to have coronavirus, you did not count as a coronavirus death. Adding the cases adds the deaths.

    I live in upstate New York. Every month I hear some potato claim that they think the taxes on their $100,000 house and $30,000 income is what keeps New York City afloat "because all the welfare". The reality is that downstate counties transfer, literally, a billion dollars upstate every year. When all the country villagers go down and apply for HEAP - emergency heating assistance provided by the state - so they don't turn into meat popsicles in their farmhouses, they have no clear concept of where that money is coming from or who pays to clear the snow off the one highway into town. That pattern plays out across the country. Small-town America is basically on life support, and often a government-subsidized retirement home for aging and obsolete workers. If the cash tap runs dry because Wall Street is disrupted, life could start looking pretty rough very quickly.
    So first of all, my main point is simply that we do not know the real situation over there. But every single sign points to "its worse than reported" and "What is being reported is BS" and "It's not good at all"

    Secondly, like VOX said, its a matter of degrees. As far as I am concerned this is either going to be a blip on the radar of humanity or its not. If its a blip, then why worry about it, you get what you get, you die if you die, society keeps chugging and we remain a cog in the wheel. Wash your hands, keep a few weeks of food on hand in case it gets rocky, few months if you can swing it, everything will go back to normal.

    I am concerned about what happens in the latter case, when EVERYTHING changes. Forget finance, think starvation. Think, do I have the ability to heat the rice I stockpiled? Think, "do I want to survive by being a savage and finding food wherever it can be found, or will there be some mechanism for civil distribution of food". Cities don't produce food. GDP doesn't produce food. Farms produce food. Fertile soil produces food. Scale it back to "what will humanity have at its disposal to keep from a complete degenerative breakdown" and in that context, its comforting to think that rural america has a better chance of isolation and containment. They have a better chance of not being part of an initial outbreak. This is comforting because when you boil it all down, people will adapt to finding shelter, warmth, entertainment, etc. We can't adapt to not needing food and water. Those two basic necessities are the only thing that truly worries me. Because without those, you are left in a very primitive state where everything you think you know about morals and ethics gets put into question.
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    Originally Posted by VoxExMachina View Post
    Actually, I don't fully agree with this. Yes, it's true in some sense but only because of how we've structured things like farm subsidies, or the fact that society currently pays high wages to jobs that are deemed "important" (like designing an iPhone, for example). But if the sh!t truly hits the fan, there would be a rebalancing of the real and perceived worth of certain goods, services, and wages. Farmers would be able to charge an unsubsidized value for crops, a rural population density would be preferred for sustainability, etc. Meanwhile, we'd consider the worth of something like a "financial district" or a "computer coder" to be much less than the guy providing food, water, or critical services.

    In any true SHTF scenario society would re-configure to whatever model works best. Cities only survive because a very organized and complex civilization has been engineered to support them. It takes far less to upset the system to the point they break down than it does the average farmer. Also, the dude on Wall Street making $500K frequency trading or something is paying taxes, but isn't really producing anything. His "GDP" is just smoke and mirrors. True wealth, ultimately, is in tangible things produced.

    But it's really a matter of degrees. ONLY if enough things break down does the model change. Otherwise, people just go on as they have.
    I'm not completely disagreeing with you, but we spend massive sums making those transitions appear relatively seamless to the people going through them. You say "GDP is just smoke and mirrors", but the fact is that the taxes on his $500k are still dollars and that the guy in rural America earning $30k not only doesn't pay significant taxes, but also receives some of the spend from that $500k Guy's taxes. Without that "engineered" approach to economic disruptions, someone with the means to step in and make sure the truck full of penicillin still arrives on time, economic transitions usually mean protracted human suffering. Refugees, hunger, disease, and death. Think of the Dust Bowl, which displaced lawyers just the same as it did farmers. Entire towns and counties have been obsolete for decades and don't realize that the government has stepped in to let them die off with dignity while their children move on. If you disrupt the flow of wealth from the more productive parts of the economy that provide the means to do that, it simply doesn't happen and the results are nasty, which has been the norm for most of human history.

    What's missing from your take is that when a farmer can demand a higher price for a head of lettuce, you are describing inflation. When economies of scale - like those that support computer programmers working in agriculture to develop automated equipment that can harvest tens of thousands of heads of lettuce more cheaply than hiring illegal immigrants - start to break down and have to be replaced by less efficient methods, it reflects a real loss of productivity. The head of lettuce does not become more expensive because it can now feed more people, but because it is becoming more difficult both to produce and to acquire a head of lettuce. In nominal terms, prices are going up, but the farmer is also paying more for increasingly precious inputs, and in real terms, his customers are becoming poorer, diverting a larger percentage of their wealth to food and losing access to other things, such as, to use your example, iPhones. For people who are already poor, they are in danger of going hungry unless the government has the means to support them, which, whoops, depended on the taxes paid by $500k Guy.

    With that said, I don't think we're talking about a protracted realignment. What we really might be talking about is a crisis where supply chains that keep less-dense parts of the country alive are severely disrupted for weeks or months in unpredictable ways, and in which governments take on debt to try to keep things stable that will burden society for generations. Everybody is talking about the quarantine in Wuhan or the factories shutting down in Tianjin, but almost nobody is talking about what that means for other parts of China, which, as of this month, appears to be 5.4% inflation, compared to less than 2% last year. Sure enough, rising prices are making everyone poorer and forcing them to divert more of their wealth to essentials. If you were already a marginal person living on the edge, it's one thing for pork prices to go up because of swine flu, but what happens to you when the everything prices go up because of everything flu? Selling a head of lettuce for $20 doesn't help you if you can't have a tractor at any price because Peoria is on lockdown.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/china/inflation-cpi
    Last edited by ANumber1; 02-13-2020 at 09:06 AM.
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    Originally Posted by Vexidi View Post
    In a legit SHTF scenario the life of the average city dweller would be turned upside down far more than the average country bumpkin like myself. I've eaten possum before and its not bad.
    Meh. Small town here- I've got plenty of fun stuff to do before I worry. 6 months of food and the necessary items to defend myself should it ever come to that. I was thinking of stocking up on water filtering straws though just incase. I usually use 1 each hiking season and throw it away, but perhaps I should grab more and throw it with my emergency food stuff.


    EDIT: if society breaks down first place I break into is gonna be the ATV/dirt bike/snowmobile dealer
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    Originally Posted by Vexidi View Post
    In a legit SHTF scenario the life of the average city dweller would be turned upside down far more than the average country bumpkin like myself. I've eaten possum before and its not bad.
    rural guys are much better off due to a lack of population density
    It’s not even close
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    Fixing to go through all these threads, and when the outbreak is over, make a major callout compilation here

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    Originally Posted by RobParks2M View Post
    Meh. Small town here- I've got plenty of fun stuff to do before I worry. 6 months of food and the necessary items to defend myself should it ever come to that. I was thinking of stocking up on water filtering straws though just incase. I usually use 1 each hiking season and throw it away, but perhaps I should grab more and throw it with my emergency food stuff.

    EDIT: if society breaks down first place I break into is gonna be the ATV/dirt bike/snowmobile dealer
    Get a proper water filters that you can backflush so they'll last a long time. I use a simple little Sawyer when I backpack, they're pretty choice.

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