View Poll Results: Still going to gym or no!

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  1. #1501
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    Originally Posted by jasticus View Post
    https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/lat...-over-21426098

    Considering they cremating 24/7 seems to be high af
    Ive heard that too as far as 24/7 cremation, which might probably be true. But also realize that article/fog **** is bull****. the implication is, its smoke from all the dead bodies being burnt, but that area of china is HEAVY industrial and known for lots of pollution which is seen as haze/fog like that all the time. Also youre dealing with people who are on high alert, scared, and SUPER superstitious.

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    Originally Posted by jasticus View Post
    https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/lat...-over-21426098

    Considering they cremating 24/7 seems to be high af
    Looks like a normal day for Wuhan. It's been called China's smog city for fuks sake

    This is a pic of Wuhan from like 2012


  3. #1503
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    I'm probably an idiot, but why don't they fly planes of sick people to nearby hospitals for treatment? China obviously makes the rules here.
    414 of the 427 dead WORLDWIDE is in Hebei, with nowhere to go and probably no medical treatment available. Being sick and not being able to get treated in time, waiting to die.. I can't even imagine how that must feel like. You don't see anywhere near the amount of deaths from the rest of the world, or even rest of China.

    Obviously they want to contain the virus, but if you're talking about hundreds of lives(if not more), can't they come up with a safe method to transfer at least some of the sick to somewhere else?

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    Frank Plummer, former head of the Canadian National Microbiology Lab, dead at 67

    "He won many awards during his career, for his research into HIV transmission and for providing leadership at the National Microbiology Lab during the SARS outbreak, including the Canada Gairdner Wightman Award in 2016. He was also at the helm of the lab during Ebola scares and during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic."

    Cause of death not reported but Canada’s chief public health officer described Plummer’s death as “sudden” in a statement where she referred to him as her mentor.

    https://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/frank-pl...t-67-1.4797116

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    Originally Posted by lolhey View Post
    I'm probably an idiot, but why don't they fly planes of sick people to nearby hospitals for treatment? China obviously makes the rules here.
    414 of the 427 dead WORLDWIDE is in Hebei, with nowhere to go and probably no medical treatment available. Being sick and not being able to get treated in time, waiting to die.. I can't even imagine how that must feel like. You don't see anywhere near the amount of deaths from the rest of the world, or even rest of China.

    Obviously they want to contain the virus, but if you're talking about hundreds of lives(if not more), can't they come up with a safe method to transfer at least some of the sick to somewhere else?
    hospital staff dont even want to help though, hong kong staff wants to strike and close the border, obviously this is more serious than a "flu"

  9. #1509
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    Hubei province report:
    - 3,156 new cases
    - 65 deaths
    - 2,520 in critical condition (up from 2,143 yesterday)
    - 125 discharged

    Total number of infected will pass 24k today.

  10. #1510
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  11. #1511
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    Originally Posted by Vexidi View Post
    Hubei province report:
    - 3,156 new cases
    - 65 deaths
    - 2,520 in critical condition (up from 2,143 yesterday)
    - 125 discharged

    Total number of infected will pass 24k today.
    Might even pass 25k today. The rest of mainland China had around 1k new cases yesterday I think. We're only about 1100 away from surpassing 25k today.

    So far the exponential growth seems to keep going on within China, outside of China it still seems to be mostly contained.

  12. #1512
    Aware since 2004 Witrebel's Avatar
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    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeli...ase_statistics

    Going to cliff this briefly
    Earliest case likely Dec 1, but certainly as early as Dec 8th.
    Dec 30 a group of doctors in a chat message discuss this virus and how clusters of patients aren't responding to treatment
    Later that evening, they get arrested for "spreading rumors"
    Dec 31 official word goes out from Wuhan Health Committee that there is something going around, this is communicated to WHO
    Jan 1 They are already torching "disinfecting" the market that they suspect it came from
    Jan 2 They finally confirm 41 cases via Lab testing
    From Jan 2 to Jan 18, they report/confirm ZERO new cases (bullcrap)
    Jan 18 they have a banquet in Wuhan with 100,000 people eating and mingling

    Cliffs of cliffs, China did themselves no favors and hopefully it can be contained if we don't go full potato like china did.
    We are all gunna make it

  13. #1513
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    Originally Posted by Barteh View Post
    Might even pass 25k today. The rest of mainland China had around 1k new cases yesterday I think. We're only about 1100 away from surpassing 25k today.

    So far the exponential growth seems to keep going on within China, outside of China it still seems to be mostly contained.
    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeli...ase_statistics

    Going to cliff this briefly
    Earliest case likely Dec 1, but certainly as early as Dec 8th.
    Dec 30 a group of doctors in a chat message discuss this virus and how clusters of patients aren't responding to treatment
    Later that evening, they get arrested for "spreading rumors"
    Dec 31 official word goes out from Wuhan Health Committee that there is something going around, this is communicated to WHO
    Jan 1 They are already torching "disinfecting" the market that they suspect it came from
    Jan 2 They finally confirm 41 cases via Lab testing
    From Jan 2 to Jan 18, they report/confirm ZERO new cases (bullcrap)
    Jan 18 they have a banquet in Wuhan with 100,000 people eating and mingling

    Cliffs of cliffs, China did themselves no favors and hopefully it can be contained if we don't go full potato like china did.
    I think keeping an eye on the top 3 infected countries outside China is key. Japan, Thailand & Singapore cases have all been slowly ticking up but if they keep a handle on it its a good sign for everyone else.

  14. #1514
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    Originally Posted by Vexidi View Post
    I think keeping an eye on the top 3 infected countries outside China is key. Japan, Thailand & Singapore cases have all been slowly ticking up but if they keep a handle on it its a good sign for everyone else.
    If it went from 1 to 41+ cases in China within 3-4 weeks then some of those other countries might actually be on the same pace still.

  15. #1515
    Aware since 2004 Witrebel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Barteh View Post
    If it went from 1 to 41+ cases in China within 3-4 weeks then some of those other countries might actually be on the same pace still.
    This, I think the delayed growth is a false sense of security for a few reasons.

    1) Based on China's reaction and infering what we can from the data we are being given, I think its highly likely the R0 is higher than published.
    2) We have strong efforts to quarantine, which likely work 90+ or better, but needs to be better than the inverse of the R0 to actually contain things for real
    3) If the incubation time is seriously long, then we get major delays in case count increase and we may drop our guard as a society

    As an example,

    If R0 of a cold is 3, with a 3 day incubation period, assuming you compound every third day, then after 27 days it will grow from 1 case to 19683
    If R0 of Corona is 3, with a 9 day incubation period, assuming you compound every third day, then after 27 days it will grow from 1 case to only 27

    The incubation period really sets the timescale for your exponential growth. It took 2 solid months for China to go from nothing to where we are now, with virtually no containment early on.

    If we are effectively containing MOST of it, it could be 2-3 months before the rate of increase starts to signal that things are headed south.

    In theory other countries with less resources will exhibit the symptoms sooner though, if they have less effective quarantine measures.
    We are all gunna make it

  16. #1516
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    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    This, I think the delayed growth is a false sense of security for a few reasons.

    1) Based on China's reaction and infering what we can from the data we are being given, I think its highly likely the R0 is higher than published.
    2) We have strong efforts to quarantine, which likely work 90+ or better, but needs to be better than the inverse of the R0 to actually contain things for real
    3) If the incubation time is seriously long, then we get major delays in case count increase and we may drop our guard as a society

    As an example,

    If R0 of a cold is 3, with a 3 day incubation period, assuming you compound every third day, then after 27 days it will grow from 1 case to 19683
    If R0 of Corona is 3, with a 9 day incubation period, assuming you compound every third day, then after 27 days it will grow from 1 case to only 27

    The incubation period really sets the timescale for your exponential growth. It took 2 solid months for China to go from nothing to where we are now, with virtually no containment early on.

    If we are effectively containing MOST of it, it could be 2-3 months before the rate of increase starts to signal that things are headed south.

    In theory other countries with less resources will exhibit the symptoms sooner though, if they have less effective quarantine measures.

    Could still be bad, but it was basically a perfect storm in Wuhan. Enormous population with bad hygiene + time when everyone gathers + sh!t tier initial response from govt. = sh!t hitting the fan.
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    https://nypost.com/2020/02/04/corona...rce=reddit.com
    A Chinese man who tested positive for coronavirus fell sick on a family vacation to Mexico before he flew back to Los Angeles, according to a report.

    The 38-year-old man, who was only identified as Q.L., traveled Jan. 20 to Mexico City on a Delta Airlines flight from Los Angeles, the Mexican newspaper Milenio reported.

    Upon arrival, the man took an Uber to the Hotel Hilton Mexico City Reforma, where he was staying with his family, according to the report.

    The next day, they had breakfast in the hotel before roaming around the city’s tourist sights, the report said.

    The group walked about a mile to the Catedral Metropolitana, went to a museum and ate tacos at a local restaurant, the outlet reported.

    Later that evening, he began to feel ill and the next day took an Uber back to the airport, where he flew back with his family on an American Airlines flight to LA, the report said.

    American Airlines confirmed that a passenger from the flight received medical attention upon arrival and was transported to a local medical center for “precautionary reasons.”
    Disturbing how many people this guy could have infected. This guy isn't the only traveller that's wandered around for days and days in contact with hundreds if not thousands of people unknowingly infected, possibly spreading chit around. Compound this with the total lackidaisical attitude that seems to have been the norm for the past few weeks, and I'll be surprised, utterly amazed if this doesn't start to fester unknown until the point of no return arrives and we have 200 cases of pneumonia out of nowhere that originally looked like a cold or the flu.

    I can see the taco guy
    "Hey I think I got the Corona virus"
    "Did you go to China?"
    "No, but..."
    "Here, take this medicine, you'll be fine"
    "Yeah but..."
    "Look we got lots of sick people to take care of. Piss off"
    ...
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    Wuhan doctor saying the government is lying

    https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/st...238180352?s=21

    Let the bodies hit the floor?
    https://twitter.com/badiucao/status/...477195776?s=21
    Last edited by 5x10; 02-04-2020 at 04:00 PM.
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    Originally Posted by 5x10 View Post
    Wuhan doctor saying the government is lying

    https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/st...238180352?s=21

    Let the bodies hit the floor?
    https://twitter.com/badiucao/status/...477195776?s=21
    Yikes

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    3,700 person cruise ship off the coast of Japan is under quarantine due to 10 confirmed cases onboard.

    The company said Monday that a previous guest, who didn’t have any symptoms while aboard the ship, tested positive for the coronavirus on Saturday — six days after leaving the ship.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/prin...for-virus.html

    Imagine how many of these cruise ships had carries onboard which were not detected before everyone dispersed back into their local populations.

    Chit can get real bad real quick.
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    Originally Posted by BuckNakedinBama View Post
    3,700 person cruise ship off the coast of Japan is under quarantine due to 10 confirmed cases onboard.

    The company said Monday that a previous guest, who didn’t have any symptoms while aboard the ship, tested positive for the coronavirus on Saturday — six days after leaving the ship.
    Really puts a new spin on the guy they posted by the hand washing station with an acoustic guitar on my last cruise imploring everyone to wash before and after meals.

    "Washy washy, happy happy, ohhhhhhh..."
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    Aware since 2004 Witrebel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by BuckNakedinBama View Post
    3,700 person cruise ship off the coast of Japan is under quarantine due to 10 confirmed cases onboard.

    The company said Monday that a previous guest, who didn’t have any symptoms while aboard the ship, tested positive for the coronavirus on Saturday — six days after leaving the ship.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/prin...for-virus.html

    Imagine how many of these cruise ships had carries onboard which were not detected before everyone dispersed back into their local populations.

    Chit can get real bad real quick.
    This right here is a hell of a data point. It may take 1 or 2 generations for any given country to finally have that asymptomatic carrier present in a populated/retail environment etc, but it will happen. A cruise ship might be a petri dish, but thats basically an R0 of 10 on that isolated incident.
    We are all gunna make it

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    Hold up one person isn't likely to spread it to anymore than a handful. That's why the r0 is like 3ish. It's averages and statistics but still. It's important to remember that the real r0 we know of for now means it will only spread from one person to three.

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    Registered User Fairplay's Avatar
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    Any good resources for preparing? What to stock up on etc

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    Originally Posted by Fairplay View Post
    Any good resources for preparing? What to stock up on etc
    Toilet paper srs. One of the first things to go in the apocalypse.

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    Aware since 2004 Witrebel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Underwrought View Post
    Hold up one person isn't likely to spread it to anymore than a handful. That's why the r0 is like 3ish. It's averages and statistics but still. It's important to remember that the real r0 we know of for now means it will only spread from one person to three.
    There is both mainstream media and common sense suggesting that the “known” R0 might be quite low compared to the actual.

    Given what we KNOW is happening in China right now it makes you stop and think.
    We are all gunna make it

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    I AM THE CHAOS doughnutking's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by 5x10 View Post
    One of the corpses is using a pillow.

    It could be people sleeping, look at the chairs behind which have been made into beds.

    and why would they leave them in the hospital waiting room when you could throw them out of a window at the very least.
    Last edited by doughnutking; 02-04-2020 at 10:16 PM.

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    What kind of filter do I need for a face respirator. I know there are different kinds that are rated for different things, so which is good for biological agents.

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    Originally Posted by BulkingIsHard View Post
    What kind of filter do I need for a face respirator. I know there are different kinds that are rated for different things, so which is good for biological agents.
    N95. N100 preffered though. Try getting respirators so you can just change the filter. Also get goggles goes through the eye

  30. #1530
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    Originally Posted by jasticus View Post
    N95. N100 preffered though. Try getting respirators so you can just change the filter. Also get goggles goes through the eye
    I already bought a full face respirator last year. Price has doubled at this point (from $50 to just over $90) so I might actually stockpile a few cartridges just in case because the demand is getting ridiculous.

    Also:

    The CDC recommends that health workers who interact with coronavirus patients wear N95 masks. These are a type of respirator mask that fit closely to the face and are designed to filter out small particles from the air. If a face mask has an “N95” designation, that means that it will filter out 95% of particles as small as 0.3 microns from the air. The viruses in the coronavirus family are all quite large (at least by virus standards), and on average they are a little over 0.1 microns. So theoretically, even with an N95 mask some virus particles could still get through.
    Guess I'll just die?

    Edit: Nvm

    However, it is critical to understand that the flu virus does not float in the air by itself. The flu virus is transported from patient to patient on droplets of excretions from sneezing and coughing. These particles are typically 5 microns or larger.
    The more you know

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