View Poll Results: Still going to gym or no!

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  1. #2371
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    The virus seems to be near running its course. Recovered numbers spiking, confirmed numbers leveling, and death numbers dropping. Not confident in China #s but overall this chit seems to be on its way to defeat.

    Sooo....what do you all think is going to be the fallout in regards to markets? Apple and several companies already signalling drops in production and profit are going to take significant hits. The knock on affects even on USA and other domestic industries are also set to have a hard year. We about to hit a hard patch? The current environment seems to be one of hopeful waiting, maybe expecting gov't intervention. How bad is it gonna be brahs? I was gonna pull out and decided to stay in. Thinking maybe it won't be bad.
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  2. #2372
    Aware since 2004 Witrebel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Johnez View Post
    The virus seems to be near running its course. Recovered numbers spiking, confirmed numbers leveling, and death numbers dropping. Not confident in China #s but overall this chit seems to be on its way to defeat.

    Sooo....what do you all think is going to be the fallout in regards to markets? Apple and several companies already signalling drops in production and profit are going to take significant hits. The knock on affects even on USA and other domestic industries are also set to have a hard year. We about to hit a hard patch? The current environment seems to be one of hopeful waiting, maybe expecting gov't intervention. How bad is it gonna be brahs? I was gonna pull out and decided to stay in. Thinking maybe it won't be bad.
    Zero confidence in this assessment. This thing is just gearing up. Happy to be wrong, but I've got a cruise ship and a little place called Singapore that would beg to differ.
    We are all gunna make it

  3. #2373
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    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    Zero confidence in this assessment. This thing is just gearing up. Happy to be wrong, but I've got a cruise ship and a little place called Singapore that would beg to differ.
    Deaths seem limited to China and the very old outside China. The "it's just the flu bro" chit was annoying at first...but death rates seem to bear this out.
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  4. #2374
    Aware since 2004 Witrebel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Johnez View Post
    Deaths seem limited to China and the very old outside China. The "it's just the flu bro" chit was annoying at first...but death rates seem to bear this out.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeli...3_January_2020

    The initial "reported" 41 cases in Wuhan were admitted to the hospital on 1/2. Thats 46 days ago. They had already started decontaminating the market at that point. That means 41 people were sick enough to need hospitalization. Initial cases date back to Dec 8th. Thats 71 days ago.

    Take that information, and overlay it with world wide cases and exposure timelines. We are lagging the Wuhan timeline by at LEAST a month. If not more. And the increased awareness/containment efforts will certainly have the effect of elongating the timeline. We are where Wuhan was back in early January. Give it time.

    Either the published R0 values which have been stated anywhere from 2-6.7 are utterly false, and china is having the most autistic overreaction in the history of over reacting, orrrrr this thing is just starting to establish itself outside of China.

    Given what we know, my money is on the scientist being right, the data in china being under-reported, and the reality is that we have another month or two before global infections are at a level that can't be ignored.

    Edit: Same thing with death rates. Hospitalization started on Jan 2, when was the first death reported? Why are there 15 people hospitalized in the US for how long now but little talk of recovery? Don't assume that low deaths to date will result in low overall deaths in a month.

    Edit 2: They were CONFIRMED on Jan 2, meaning those 41 patients were admitted prior to the 2nd, probably back in 2019. Only re-enforcing my point that there is significant lag time involved.

    Edit 3: You are still using the 0 day fatality rate. Which is all cases known today / all deaths known today. Most people (any at all even?) don't die on day 0 of symptoms. They die at like day 10 or later. So you are using a denominator way larger than the true death rate will be once this thing stops growing.
    -14 day CFR is closer to 10%. Granted that is CFR, which doesn't account for everyone that hasn't been confirmed and only has a mild case. Still, flu is like 0.05% of infections are fatal. Even if only 1 in 10 peple that get COV have a hospitalizing case, a 14 day CFR of 10% would still be an overall 1% infection fatality rate. I.e. 10x the lethality of the flu.
    Last edited by Witrebel; 02-17-2020 at 04:55 PM.
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  5. #2375
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    Originally Posted by Johnez View Post
    The virus seems to be near running its course. Recovered numbers spiking, confirmed numbers leveling, and death numbers dropping. Not confident in China #s but overall this chit seems to be on its way to defeat.

    Sooo....what do you all think is going to be the fallout in regards to markets? Apple and several companies already signalling drops in production and profit are going to take significant hits. The knock on affects even on USA and other domestic industries are also set to have a hard year. We about to hit a hard patch? The current environment seems to be one of hopeful waiting, maybe expecting gov't intervention. How bad is it gonna be brahs? I was gonna pull out and decided to stay in. Thinking maybe it won't be bad.
    Sounds a bit optimistic but I hope you're right! This thing is pretty scary but they are going crazy in China trying to contain it and hopefully they are doing a good job.

    For the markets, I think any China-related stocks are probably going to be good buys in the next few months. I don't think this is going to trigger any bigger crash or bear market. That might be overly optimistic as well, but I think once the weather warms up, the virus will fade a little and production will start ramping back up.

  6. #2376
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    Originally Posted by dc3119 View Post
    Sounds a bit optimistic but I hope you're right! This thing is pretty scary but they are going crazy in China trying to contain it and hopefully they are doing a good job.

    For the markets, I think any China-related stocks are probably going to be good buys in the next few months. I don't think this is going to trigger any bigger crash or bear market. That might be overly optimistic as well, but I think once the weather warms up, the virus will fade a little and production will start ramping back up.

    I think we get some Hawaii fear spike + media sensationalism spreading doom/gloom and it gives a HUGE spike down- like 10-15% correction panic. Long equities short options seems to be the potential play.
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  7. #2377
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    Cliffs? Are we still gonna have an apocalypse or not anymore?
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  8. #2378
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    Originally Posted by Fang2 View Post
    Cliffs? Are we still gonna have an apocalypse or not anymore?

    There’s a couple dudes here who are stoked for a pandemic and advocating hard
    I don’t want a large farva, I want a goddamn liter of cola

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  9. #2379
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    Originally Posted by Fang2 View Post
    Cliffs? Are we still gonna have an apocalypse or not anymore?

    this whats hapning cliffs
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    Originally Posted by Fuqdatass View Post
    There’s a couple dudes here who are stoked for a pandemic and advocating hard
    Everyone needs a hobby I guess.

  11. #2381
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    Sounds like the wuhan hospital director has now died from this mild flu going around China

  12. #2382
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    Visited 4chan against my better wisdom. Disturbing chit going down, back in low grade worry state once again. The CCP bots out in force, it does not seem like this chit is under control, and yet they seem to think they can will it away by putting people back to work. We might be ok here, just financially affected but I think this may be a way bigger problem for China than they are letting on about...
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  13. #2383
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    Originally Posted by Johnez View Post
    The virus seems to be near running its course. Recovered numbers spiking, confirmed numbers leveling, and death numbers dropping. Not confident in China #s but overall this chit seems to be on its way to defeat.

    Sooo....what do you all think is going to be the fallout in regards to markets? Apple and several companies already signalling drops in production and profit are going to take significant hits. The knock on affects even on USA and other domestic industries are also set to have a hard year. We about to hit a hard patch? The current environment seems to be one of hopeful waiting, maybe expecting gov't intervention. How bad is it gonna be brahs? I was gonna pull out and decided to stay in. Thinking maybe it won't be bad.
    Greetings from China. Well, the huge economic fallout is that currently most people in China haven't worked in about a month now. Many families are dependent on each member of the family to pull their weight as most of them all live together in a single household. Money is tight. Many business owners either haven't been able to pay their employees or have had to completely close their business.

    What can we expect? As with any economic disruption you'll see here in the mainland large numbers of unemployment. Only the strong businesses who have enough capital to afford a shutdown will still be around. However, this will breed new competition among the lower markets to fill the voids that have been created by this.
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  14. #2384
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    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    Zero confidence in this assessment. This thing is just gearing up. Happy to be wrong, but I've got a cruise ship and a little place called Singapore that would beg to differ.
    Smart idea during a virus spread to take a cruise. Also I don't think anyone has taken into account a cruise ships ventilation system. Even with quarantine perhaps it is similar to that of a central system where even though people are separated they could still be breathing the same air.
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  15. #2385
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    The more coronavirus we have, the more the markets go up. Keep that Wuhan factory pumping.

  16. #2386
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    Originally Posted by HYMENATOR View Post
    The more coronavirus we have, the more the markets go up. Keep that Wuhan factory pumping.
    im banking on markets going down tho

    Such is life

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    A third Japanese taxi driver has tested positive and 8 new cases reported there yesterday. Japan and Singapore both need to get their chit together quick.

  18. #2388
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    Originally Posted by Vexidi View Post
    A third Japanese taxi driver has tested positive and 8 new cases reported there yesterday. Japan and Singapore both need to get their chit together quick.
    I wonder what levels Japan would have to reach before we ban travel from there.
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    Originally Posted by jtaylor2010 View Post
    I wonder what levels Japan would have to reach before we ban travel from there.
    Good question. We banned Chinese travel when there were around 12,000 cases. If you actually want to contain something you do it as early as possible you don't just do nothing and say "we're doing our best". This entire situation should prove to everyone that if a particularly nasty bug with a high mortality rate ever gets out we're pretty much fuked, there is no containment thanks to international air travel.

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    Originally Posted by HYMENATOR View Post
    The more coronavirus we have, the more the markets go up. Keep that Wuhan factory pumping.
    Production has ground to a halt, it'll be a matter of weeks until we see impacts overseas.
    #chaga_gangsta

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    Originally Posted by jamalfudge View Post
    Production has ground to a halt, it'll be a matter of weeks until we see impacts overseas.
    Source?

  22. #2392
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    Originally Posted by jamalfudge View Post
    Production has ground to a halt, it'll be a matter of weeks until we see impacts overseas.
    Factories outside Hubei are slowly coming back online this week but they're shorthanded and obviously this creates the potential for a second wave of infections.

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    Originally Posted by Anachron View Post
    Source?
    Honestly too knee deep in all this to go back and look but this was common knowledge last week.

    Originally Posted by Vexidi View Post
    Factories outside Hubei are slowly coming back online this week but they're shorthanded and obviously this creates the potential for a second wave of infections.
    Then you have to worry if ports will even allow ships from China to dock without being quarantined for a month, if at all. That part is speculation on my part but the way everything is unraveling fast it's not unreasonable to expect.
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    Originally Posted by Vexidi View Post
    Good question. We banned Chinese travel when there were around 12,000 cases. If you actually want to contain something you do it as early as possible you don't just do nothing and say "we're doing our best". This entire situation should prove to everyone that if a particularly nasty bug with a high mortality rate ever gets out we're pretty much fuked, there is no containment thanks to international air travel.
    Agreed. We shouldn’t be looking at hard milestones as the benchmark for travel bans, but rather a growth pattern similar to what we saw in China to make the call. No need to wait until it explodes again before acting.


    As far China I agree 100% about another wave going through when they open things back up. Maybe not as bad as the first, but then again if they insist on keeping the economy pumping without taking similar preventative measures it has the potential to be even worse.
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    Originally Posted by jamalfudge View Post
    Honestly too knee deep in all this to go back and look but this was common knowledge last week.



    Then you have to worry if ports will even allow ships from China to dock without being quarantined for a month, if at all. That part is speculation on my part but the way everything is unraveling fast it's not unreasonable to expect.
    The virus doesn't last on inanimate objects for more than a week. It takes longer than that to reach the US so its probably fine.
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    Ship off Tokyo-over 500 confirmed, 2000 tested. They really chit the bed on there. With half the cases (literally) showing up neg before actually being confirmed, wouldn't be surprised if that whole fecking ship gets infected.

    Now, the floating petri dish should serve as a very useful indication on the actual mortality rate outside of China. Being as high profile as this story is right now, we'll soon find the real danger of this virus. Most other cases in USA receiving minimal coverage, hopefully this doesn't fade into the news cycle like the original cases (Washington, California, etc.). We shall see...
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    Originally Posted by Johnez View Post
    Ship off Tokyo-over 500 confirmed, 2000 tested. They really chit the bed on there. With half the cases (literally) showing up neg before actually being confirmed, wouldn't be surprised if that whole fecking ship gets infected.

    Now, the floating petri dish should serve as a very useful indication on the actual mortality rate outside of China. Being as high profile as this story is right now, we'll soon find the real danger of this virus. Most other cases in USA receiving minimal coverage, hopefully this doesn't fade into the news cycle like the original cases (Washington, California, etc.). We shall see...
    It for sure tells us something about how easily this thing spreads. It's morbid but will be very interesting to see if there are resulting deaths. This should give us something closer to a true infection/death rate versus just a CFR rate. Also its worth noting that technically this would be best case numbers, early treatment, access to modern healthcare, no major shortages of ICU etc.
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    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    It for sure tells us something about how easily this thing spreads. It's morbid but will be very interesting to see if there are resulting deaths. This should give us something closer to a true infection/death rate versus just a CFR rate. Also its worth noting that technically this would be best case numbers, early treatment, access to modern healthcare, no major shortages of ICU etc.
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    https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/arts-...ll-dean-koontz

    A virus called Wuhan-400 causes outbreak … in a Dean Koontz thriller from 1981. How is it that some books appear to prophesy events?

    The Eyes of Darkness features a Chinese military lab in Wuhan that creates a virus as a bioweapon; civilians soon become sick after accidentally contracting it
    In fact, the one lab in China able to handle the deadliest viruses is in Wuhan and helped sequence the novel coronavirus the world is currently battling

    Kate Whitehead

    Published: 6:21pm, 13 Feb, 2020

    The Eyes of Darkness, a 1981 thriller by bestselling suspense author Dean Koontz, tells of a Chinese military lab that creates a virus as part of its biological weapons program. The lab is located in Wuhan, which lends the virus its name, Wuhan-400. A chilling literary coincidence or a case of writer as unwitting prophet?

    In The Eyes of Darkness, a grieving mother, Christina Evans, sets out to discover whether her son Danny died on a camping trip or if – as suspicious messages suggest – he is still alive. She eventually tracks him down to a military facility where he is being held after being accidentally contaminated with man-made microorganisms created at the research centre in Wuhan.

    If that made the hair on the back of your neck stand up, read this passage from the book: “It was around that time that a Chinese scientist named Li Chen moved to the United States while carrying a floppy disk of data from China’s most important and dangerous new biological weapon of the past decade. They call it Wuhan-400 because it was developed in their RDNA laboratory just outside the city of Wuhan.”
    In another strange coincidence, the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which houses China’s only level four biosafety laboratory, the highest-level classification of labs that study the deadliest viruses, is just 32km from the epicentre of the current coronavirus outbreak

    . The opening of the maximum-security lab was covered in a 2017 story in the journal Nature, which warned of safety risks in a culture where hierarchy trumps an open culture.
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