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  1. #1
    Freedom's Last Hope™ EctoCanuck's Avatar
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    Federal Reserve:"GDP 1.8%" Trump:"GREATEST ECONOMY EVER!!!"

    Latest forecast: 1.8 percent — January 16, 2020

    The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.8 percent on January 16, down from 2.3 percent on January 10. After this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 2.3 percent to 1.6 percent.
    https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow


    Every Economic Indicator is declining...




    Trump has been riding The Obama Economic Wave™ for three years, 111 consecutive months of positive job gains, 128 months of positive GDP, but now Trump has to swim on his own. And there are no swimming pools in Prison...

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  2. #2
    5th Ave Shooter Vito-C's Avatar
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    Didn’t you spend the past 3 years claiming this was Obama’s economy?

    Sounds like Obama is failing us brah.
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  3. #3
    Registered User semitope's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Vito-C View Post
    Didn’t you spend the past 3 years claiming this was Obama’s economy?

    Sounds like Obama is failing us brah.
    This is what will happen. If things turn down under trump, its Obama's fault. While the earlier periods that were more likely due to the previous administration must have been due to trump. Some claiming he did great things for the country just by getting elected
    Is there no limit to what people will believe if it is prefaced by the phrase,
    "Scientists say" ?

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  4. #4
    Registered User Dan_S's Avatar
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    These forecasts are always embarrassing because in a few months we'll find out that yet again they lowballed it and we came in way higher.

    But I guess have fun celebrating made up forecasts.
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  5. #5
    Mariposa ByeAlicia's Avatar
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    Presidents are not the only factor in the economy.

    Quarterly GDP +/- isn’t the only factor in measuring a healthy economy.

    The “Obama” economy was a weird beast. The bi-partisan housing bubble created during the GW years (and framed by 1990s legislation) required pretty funky government spending. Billions were funneled into the pockets of democrat donors. Fewer billions were funneled into the pockets of GOP donors. The QE program, still going in to a degree, was just funny money being used to prop up the economy. Cash for clunkers was actually a survellience play - can’t track old cars line you can New ones


    The top issues in the economy, that have improved but are still a problem -

    *legal and illegal labor importation, slave labor in the 3rd world (China, India Bangladesh, much of Central and South America).

    *hyper darwinistic attacks on the poor and young people. Boomers presided over the looting of the country and sold out their kids and grand kids. This doesn’t mean all boomers, but most participated by voting in the folks who did.

    *various anti citizen regs and laws inflating costs for education to healthcare.

    *anti worker and anti American trade policy. Nixon was actually one of the better 20th century presidents, but his pro China policy legacy has been disastrous for the world.
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  6. #6
    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ TonyTriangles's Avatar
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    shouldnt OP be worried about canada's economy
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  7. #7
    Registered User BuckNakedinBama's Avatar
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    Apparently rising interest rates (which lag about 6-18 months in effect) hurt the economy. Who could've possibly seen that coming?
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  8. #8
    Registered User ghostfacedup's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by TonyTriangles View Post
    shouldnt OP be worried about canada's economy
    Why are the majority of Trump haters on here from Canada?
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  9. #9
    Registered User x-trainer ben's Avatar
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    Maybe he just tells the facts from the fed. Whether they adjust it or not later, 1.8 isnt amazing.
    sums it up a thread will start off promising and then turn into name calling..
    The easiest way to tell when an argument has no merit is when the protagonist mixes in some personal insults.
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  10. #10
    It's not the gun, stupid. Ikeman83's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by BuckNakedinBama View Post
    Apparently rising interest rates (which lag about 6-18 months in effect) hurt the economy. Who could've possibly seen that coming?

    Democrat polling from the debate must've been REALLY bad for this thread to be here...
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  11. #11
    Jacques Rhott Bushmaster's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by EctoCanuck View Post
    Every Economic Indicator is declining...
    Let me guess.. your step dad's financial adviser predicts doom and gloom?
    Oh my God please help me waist deep in the river can you hear my plea
    He says son you come like a begger in the streets
    you might make it boy but by the skin of your teeth.

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    And I saw myself staring back again, and I saw myself staring back again...
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  12. #12
    SillieBazzillie Alt #5 StoliFun's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by BuckNakedinBama View Post
    Apparently rising interest rates (which lag about 6-18 months in effect) hurt the economy. Who could've possibly seen that coming?
    Fire the Fed.
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  13. #13
    kein mitleid fr mehrheit Stizzel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by semitope View Post
    This is what will happen. If things turn down under trump, its Obama's fault. While the earlier periods that were more likely due to the previous administration must have been due to trump. Some claiming he did great things for the country just by getting elected
    Spreading reps so i can neg this creature again
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  14. #14
    Starvation Mode GO! NitrogenWidget's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by ghostfacedup View Post
    Why are the majority of Trump haters on here from Canada?
    have you seen their leader?
    they mad jelly of trump.
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  15. #15
    Yankees for life. 89FoxBody's Avatar
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    This coming from the same people who were predicting an immediate recession 3 months ago. Keep talking down the economy. It shows you care more about your political agenda than the well being of hundreds of millions of people.
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  16. #16
    Registered User A-man's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by TonyTriangles View Post
    shouldnt OP be worried about canada's economy
    We are actually doing pretty good too. A big part is the booming us economy, of course.

    Our biggest weakness is our housing market and debt levels (individual). It’s scary how many real estate agents there are.
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  17. #17
    SillieBazzillie Alt #5 StoliFun's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by A-man View Post
    We are actually doing pretty good too. A big part is the booming us economy, of course.

    Our biggest weakness is our housing market and debt levels (individual). It’s scary how many real estate agents there are.
    How are the prices of maple syrup and beaver pelts? What's good to invest in when quebecois separatists act up?
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  18. #18
    Verified Miscer ☑️ ispy's Avatar
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    america's politics living rent free in canadian op's head.
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    Originally Posted by EctoCanuck View Post
    Trump has been riding The Obama Economic Wave™ for three years, 111 consecutive months of positive job gains, 128 months of positive GDP, but now Trump has to swim on his own. And there are no swimming pools in Prison...
    lol @ "forecast"

    And when things turn out to be great, OP will be here screaming that 'Obama Economic Wave TM' is extended yet another month folks.... just like he's been doing for the past 3 years. I swear I remember seeing posts from Ecto in 2017 saying that "it's Drumpf's economy now", and the whole "Obama's budget ended on 09/30/2017"...... For some reason we were still under 'Obama Wave TM' all this time until today and it's 2020 outside.

    Mark it, OP will be back next month saying 'Obama's economy' again when DOW breaks 30,000 record high.
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    On what date will OP and liberals declare this "Obama economic wave" ends? What is the official gauge as to when the previous President's effects 'stop'?

    A year? Two years? 3 years? 3 years and 2 months?
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  21. #21
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    BUT TRUMP TWEETS ABOUT THE STOCK MARKET AND HE SEZ ITS DA BESS


    LOL at the Morans on the right
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  22. #22
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    Ecto, I’m too worn and busy to go back and forth with you tonight this time.



    Every economic indicator down eh- I might have to get back to you with that

    And just lol you posting that ISM survey data I handled pretty will in the manufacturing thread IMO...


    Once you posted this....

    Originally Posted by EctoCanuck View Post
    How aboot this graph from your own link....




    See this chart from the OP...



    Again see the 'direction' line^

    Everything is contracting or slowing. What should scare everyone is this statement..




    This is Trump's economy....

    And then I posted this.....
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    My response...

    Originally Posted by EctoCanuck View Post
    How aboot this graph from your own link....




    See this chart from the OP...


    Again see the 'direction' line^

    Everything is contracting or slowing. What should scare everyone is this statement..




    This is Trump's economy....

    my god ecto

    so you seriously took the graph from my post.





    And decided to isolate and segment it just to a small 2018 Q4 - 2019 Q1 , leaving the remainder out....

    I mean heck if we want to segment minute like that lets just finish the segment where you left off....





    Not to mention the record number of people employed in manufacturing I posted, the 477k available jobs, the Industrial production trend growth, the manufacturing factory shipments growth.

    I mean fwiw I did and do acknowledge there will be some ebb and flow periods in the overall upward momentum we currently have, much on the back end of q3 as we deal with Boeing/ge skew and transition to the new trade deals which will have a 2 quarter lag effect.

    But the health and growth is there, and its indisputable...


    I don't think I need to write a long post in response to your desperation here, including the statements from someone who surveys purchasing managers. I think I covered that good enough in my previous post.

    Unless you need me to repeat it?

    It seems you do.

    yes like it or not, we are pretty damn healthy even through small stagnate segments....

    you might want to read about that report and chart you keep posting actually means, I have some pointers in my post, ill repeat....

    Manufacturing


    So lets talk a little bit about what’s going on in manufacturing, and also discuss some reality

    First are the importance of manufacturing as a whole being extensive has reduced, but that’s not really important for now.

    Manufacturing in general is going through a very transitional time period for multiple reasons, including modernization processes, automation, changes in types of work force, changes in skill of workforce needed etc.

    In addition, the trade battle between major nations. Some of the very recent trends are reflective of this, however in large part as we enter 2020 a bulk of this has settled in multiple agreements, we should see the results come to fruition by the 4th quarter or so.

    Another big challenge with manufacturing is filling all the open positions. We gave businesses an economic climate that was attractive for them to expand with, however they didn’t have the employees to expand as they wished- That reason above all is why some sectors have stagnated or not grown as much as they could have.

    The skill sets for manufacturing are becoming more and more specific, and much more technical. The days of building a big factor in town, training people how to do a task on an assembly line in a few weeks, then go is over.

    I’ll get into more details on that later.


    For now, lets talk about where we really are.



    Manufacturing sector real output



    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS

    Industrial production index



    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO


    Manufacturing factory shipments




    https://www.census.gov/manufacturing...ata/index.html


    All employees manufacturing





    https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet


    And current job opening in manufacturing



    Yes you read that correctly….



    There are currently 477,000 job opening in manufacturing








    So what is ecto showing us?

    It’s the ISM Purchasing Manager's Index report.

    It’s basically a survey of supply manager executive who order materials. Purchasing managers.

    It can, and has, been a good indicator of movement, as this movement gives us an indication of the industry prior to the actual hard data, some of what I posted above.

    It’s not the end all be all.

    It can be skewed.

    i.e.- 18 managers surveyed, 13 say we suck, but the other 5 are outputting 80% more than the other 13 combined- we are still good as a whole.

    In the past this indicator has been wrong, and often up to 30% off immediate data as well.

    Back in the day this Index was Alan Greenspan’s always talked about go to as a leading indicator.

    Over the years it continually overimagining movements in activity compared to date that actually occurred has caused its credibility of importance to reduce some.

    This is mainly a result and how transitional manufacturing in general is anyway.

    Just the supply chain itself modernizing process for closet to 0 excess inventory alone has changed its relevance over the years.




    We can see an end of the year dip as we cautionary move into trade deals, but don’t let the MSM headlines exaggerating or the ISM fool you.

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    Then you tried this

    Originally Posted by EctoCanuck View Post
    2017 was Obama's last budget year....




    That's 12,000,000 million hours per month fewer than during Obama's administration. If this trend continues a recession is inevitable.

    I can read trump like a comic book. He knows a recession will make it impossible for him to get re-elected. He believes starting a war will keep him in the White House and out of prison.

    You heard it here first.

    And I.....

    [QUOTE=gachase21;1594996901]Interesting.

    Average hourly earnings of all employees manufacturing



    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES3000000003

    Average weekly hours all employees manufacturing



    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAEMAN


    With a 9.4% increase in average weekly earnings, and almost 15.9% increase in real take home earnings



    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES3000000030

    So a drop of of .3-.4 of an hour eh? and still over 40 hours yet paid more with almost 600,000 more employees working now?



    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP




    Now with the manufacturing unemployment rate dropping like a rock....



    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU04032232



    With over 100 billion more than wages paid....



    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/N552RC1M027SBEA


    I’m not sure you’re argument stands....

    I’d love to see the math you used for 600,000 more employees working resulting in 12,000,000 less hours - while at the same time those same people working just a little less hours are actually making more money...


    I can read a comic book

    You read it here first.
    This part I believe.
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    But let’s not leave what your fried sillie B tried a few days ago....


    Originally Posted by SillieBazzillie View Post
    So would you agree that Trump’s economy, with nearly identical GDP growth to Obama’s, is essentially no stronger?
    It's an apple to orange comparison, measuring growth from a vastly different starting point- It's just like that swimming pool analogy I posted for you before. As well as the infusion of trillions in QE, as you note bellow unwinding stopped, but that kinda nets even us now, no adding just treading water, that's way different than adding trillions.

    Admittedly the repo markets are in action with liquidity now, but that's actually an unintended consequence of an economy so strong we need more monetary supply to function it. I'ts an indication of strength.

    From a reality unbiased stand point, even if we have a slightly lower gdp the next few years, it's way more impressive considering we are able to grow on a high point.

    The reality is that trade deficits are at all time highs
    U.S. trade deficit sinks 8% to 3-year low of $43.1 billion in November amid China trade war

    U.S. on verge of first annual decline in trade deficit since 2013


    The numbers: The trade deficit fell sharply in November for the second month in a row and sank to the lowest level in three years, reflecting a decline in Chinese imports and the reemergence of the U.S. as an energy superpower.

    The trade gap dropped 8.2% to $43.1 billion in November, the government said Tuesday, basically matching the MarketWatch forecast. It’s the smallest deficit since October 2016.

    Most of the decline recently has been tied to a shrinking deficit with China, whose imports have fallen in the face off stiff U.S. tariffs. Surging U.S. oil exports were another contributor.

    If the gap remains around the same size in December, the U.S. could post the first annual decline in its trade deficit in 2019 in six years.

    What happened: Exports rose 0.7% to $208.6 billion in November. The U.S. exported more aircraft engines, autos and equipment for oil drilling and exploration.

    Imports slipped 1% to $251.7 billion. The U.S. imported fewer computers, cell phones, drugs and aircraft, offsetting a big increase in auto imports.

    The deficit in goods with China fell another $2.2 billion in November to $25.6 billion.

    The gap with China has tumbled $61.3 billion to $319.8 billion in the first 11 months of 2019 compared to the prior year.

    What’s unclear is whether the gap will continue to shrink or by how much. Most of the decline in the past several months may reflect short-term disruptions caused by the trade war as companies sought to time orders around new tariffs.

    Still, a sharp decline in the U.S. trade gap with China suddenly has the U.S. on the verge of posting its first annual decline since 2013.

    The U.S. trade deficit added up to $563 billion in the first nine months of this year, compared to $566.9 billion in the same span in 2018.
    What’s also helped tug the deficit lower are growing U.S. exports of oil and natural gas. The U.S. petroleum surplus in November rose to $800 million and was the highest on record.

    Imports of crude oil, meanwhile, fell to the lowest level in almost 28 years.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...war-2020-01-07

    In addition that, as I've mentioned before, when looking at the trade deficit you have to consider the dollar strength. It can simply be skewed by our currency being much stronger than theirs, or vice versa.

    as are farm subsidies.
    True, and it was part of the strategy to get the above results. In addition Hurricane Dorian hitting the cotton belt right on almost the exact week before what would have been a record harvest somewhat skewed it.

    Wages are essentially flat other than minimum wage increases
    November 2018 to November 2019

    -overall median wage growth up 3.6%
    -bottom 25% income earners up 4.5%
    -top 25% income earner up 2.9%
    -wage growth for non whites up 4.3%
    -ages 25-54 up 3.9%
    -Bachelor’s degrees up 3.7%
    -high school only up up 3.7%
    -workers in manufacturing, construction, and mining up 4.0%
    -those with low, medium, and high skills all shared 3.6 percent wage increases

    https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage...h-tracker.aspx




    and all the tax cut for the rich did was super charge the stock market and skyrocket the debt. If we do face a prolonged recession we’re in real trouble with nothing to fight it with.
    The entire crux of our arguments differ on the opinions of who the tax cuts helped or not. To me it seems it helped more people, from the largest variety of backgrounds in history, over the last 3 years to positive personal economic generation than any previous tax scheme in American history.

    I posted opposition to rate cuts back to the Obama levels in such a strong economy here multiple times as they were doing it, but I do know they were done because of inflation being too low- not worries of the economy. As mention countless time in fed presidents and chairmen briefings.

    But we have some tools, various gimmicks the feds can do, and now control has been passed to the executive branch as I detailed ITT

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    And then sillie trying the whole fed card...

    Originally Posted by SillieBazzillie View Post
    Oh, and the Fed has lowered rates to recession levels and stopped unwinding their balance sheet.
    I think I covered the unwinding enough in the prior post, as for as the rates back to Obama- IMO it was a mistake.

    The economy is so strong it wasn't needed, we would be strong now still.

    And as you can read in my bellow quote, the fed was clear on why they did it....

    And yes it did take some tools away, but we can gimmick some and the executive branch has play now(which IMO is dangerous long term, but the tools are there)

    Prior post:


    Originally Posted by gachase21 View Post
    There seems to be a silly understanding here of the possible rate cut a reasons ITT.


    To start with IMO I don't think rates should be cut.

    That being said....

    For starters and a little recent insight, listen to the first few min of these in these fed discussion for a little more total understanding of thought.

    https://link.bloomberg.fm/BLM6456044536

    https://link.bloomberg.fm/BLM2450032096

    https://link.bloomberg.fm/BLM4822465885

    What she was talking about at the beginning of the first link with current 0 rate reality has some validity IMO





    also


    Powell says the Fed is not forecasting or expecting a recession


    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday the central bank’s pivot this year to lower interest rates has helped sustain U.S. economic growth.

    Speaking during a forum in Zurich, the central bank leader gave mostly positive reviews to where the U.S. stands now, even while much of the rest of the world weakens.

    “The Fed has through the course of the year seen fit to lower the expected path of interest rates,” he said. “That has supported the economy. That is one of the reasons why the outlook is still a favorable one.”

    Powell noted multiple challenges to that picture, specifically the drag from Europe and elsewhere. That’s compounded by the tariff battle between the U.S. and China as well as a persistently low inflation rate that has run below the Fed’s 2% target.

    He said that trade uncertainty is weighing on business investment and confidence.

    However, he expects the problems to be contained and not become a major impediment to growth. Powell described the labor market as in “quite a strong position” and the consumer to be “strong” as well.

    “We’re not forecasting or expecting a recession,” he said. “The most likely outlook is still moderate growth, a strong labor market and inflation continuing to move back up.”

    “Our main expectation is not at all that there will be a recession,” Powell said.

    The policymaking Federal Open Market Committee cut the central bank’s benchmark overnight lending rate by 25 basis points in July, the first such move since the Great Recession. Markets widely expect another cut at the Sept. 17-18 meeting.

    Still, Powell and the rest of the Fed have come under blistering criticism from President Donald Trump, who has said rates are still too high and causing the U.S. to be at a competitive disadvantage globally.

    Powell did not address the Trump criticisms specifically but emphasized that the Fed “is committed to nonpolitical decisions-making based on the best analysis we can muster.”

    “It’s a great place that has a very strong ethic and very high morale because of that commitment to nonpolitical public service,” he said.

    Powell pledged that the Fed will “continue to act as appropriate to sustain this expansion,” verbiage he has used before that the market has taken as assurance that the Fed is likely to keep rates low.

    He acknowledged, though, that there is a wide range of views on the FOMC regarding the proper policy path ahead. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, for instance, recently voiced support for a 50 basis point cut, while others, like Eric Rosengren of Boston and Esther George of Kansas City, have supported staying put.

    “Sometimes it’s easy to get unanimity on things when the path is clear. There will always be questions about how much to do and how fast to move. Sometimes things are relatively clear, other times it’s murky out there,” Powell said. “I think it’s one of those times.”

    He added that he considers the disparate opinions to be a “healthy thing” that he encourages.


    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/06/powe...ood-place.html

    We are approaching the cusp of what known as "mature economy"- where no growth in certain measures that previously had high growth isn't really a bad thing.

    This whole thing of eager waiting job numbers each month like a bandwagon teenage cheerleader ready to go ra ra at the results is dumb as fuk.

    If we had lower, or even negative in some cases, numbers coming in a month here or that- that wouldn't be really bad.

    If unemployment is 8% and you only have 100k jobs added- that's not a good thing, needs to be high on the reg

    But if you are at full employment, and near 0 or added- you are still in a great situation.


    What these rate cuts of much to do with is the low inflation.


    Whats really going on is the fed is confused as fuk about "wut do?" with inflation.

    Much has to do with confusion about why the tariffs (on a total wholesale bases) haven't really resulted in expected or any excess total cost past to consumer.(yes segmenting in certain micro areas)


    Basically- Tariffs passed- cost of stuff hasn't gone up, even natural inflation hasn't peaked, and dollar is strong af.

    What's happened is the savings from the cooperate tax cuts was passed to consumers, and the tariffs weren't enough to offset those savings so cost are still down from the 2% inflation rate goal.

    So the typically MOA in this case is to cut rates to increase inflation.

    But as i discussed in my tariff thread, wincel of all people asked my why we don't just cut rates in audio, so i replied with this audio clip of the problem.

    Originally Posted by wincel View Post
    I was just asking why they can't lower the interest rate. Also wondering how a tariff helps.
    Originally Posted by gachase21 View Post
    For whatever reason you have to pause it and play again to make it loud enough

    https://www.speakpipe.com/msg/s/1329...4yq8qmd7ow91yb
    Here is my entire take in the Tariffs thread.

    https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showt...7210841&page=1


    The problem is if the feds cut rates, than Trump at will cuts tariffs , chit can go off rails quick.

    Trump could also play the controlled burn game, where he keeps thing tapered with tariffs, then strategical lowers them when feds rate cut after the primary season and in the summer prior to election to basically turn the afterburners on for the economy leading up to November.

    In essence the executive branch has de-facto somewhat seized control of the currency and the fed cant figure out what direction to take, cause they cant control the parameters the executive branch can.

    Andrew Napolitano wasn't far off with his constitution issues and today's branches of government on that article last week. Not that I really blame the Executive branch for their actions the last 20 years as the power was just slowly handed over to them.

    All that needs to get straitened out and re balanced.




    I'll come back and add a little opinion in a bit on the economic reality.
    cliffs: it was because low inflation.
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    The fact that Trump took a decent point and expanded as much as he has is realistically amazing.

    And it's virtually undoing almost everything obama did- from the tax, budget, and regulation.

    So it's indeed all him not an inheritance.

    As well as the early preemptive rise in confidence even prior to the passing of TCJA- as I'm sure you remember in 2016 watching the financial news everyday people were speculating it and plugging it into the market and business stradegy plans.



    One work of caution concerning gdp and other future indicators I’ll leave everyone...


    Mnuchin Says Boeing Woes Could Lop a Half-Point from U.S. GDP
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.blo...t-from-u-s-gdp

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...p-by-0-5-video


    This is a legit unexpected worry this year.

    All other indicators are so strong we can handle it pretty well, but expect a dent
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    Originally Posted by EctoCanuck View Post
    The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.8 percent on January 16,
    That's the world record for growth in the fourth quarter of 2019! Trump breaks yet another record!!!
    I ain't no consarned religious fool, or such.

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    Trump said we would get 4, 5, 6 percent gdp growth.

    We just got under 2%

    Pathetic and another lie like Mexico will pay for the wall and he will lower the deficit.
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    Originally Posted by JimFromRaleigh1 View Post
    Trump said we would get 4, 5, 6 percent gdp growth.

    We just got under 2%

    Pathetic and another lie like Mexico will pay for the wall and he will lower the deficit.
    Deep seated insecurities. Why are all democrats like this?
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