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  1. #1
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    Petraeus Says Trump May Have Helped ‘Reestablish Deterrence’ by Killing Suleimani

    Great read by General Petraeus:

    Petraeus Says Trump May Have Helped ‘Reestablish Deterrence’ by Killing Suleimani
    As a former commander of U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and a former CIA director, retired Gen. David Petraeus is keenly familiar with Qassem Suleimani, the powerful chief of Iran’s Quds Force, who was killed in a U.S. airstrike in Baghdad Friday morning.

    After months of a muted U.S. response to Tehran’s repeated lashing out—the downing of a U.S. military drone, a devastating attack on Saudi oil infrastructure, and more—Suleimani’s killing was designed to send a pointed message to the regime that the United States will not tolerate continued provocation, he said.

    Petraeus spoke to Foreign Policy on Friday about the implications of an action he called “more significant than the killing of Osama bin Laden.” This interview has been edited for clarity and length.

    Foreign Policy: What impact will the killing of Gen. Suleimani have on regional tensions?

    David Petraeus: It is impossible to overstate the importance of this particular action. It is more significant than the killing of Osama bin Laden or even the death of [Islamic State leader Abu Bakr] al-Baghdadi. Suleimani was the architect and operational commander of the Iranian effort to solidify control of the so-called Shia crescent, stretching from Iran to Iraq through Syria into southern Lebanon. He is responsible for providing explosives, projectiles, and arms and other munitions that killed well over 600 American soldiers and many more of our coalition and Iraqi partners just in Iraq, as well as in many other countries such as Syria. So his death is of enormous significance.

    The question of course is how does Iran respond in terms of direct action by its military and Revolutionary Guard Corps forces? And how does it direct its proxies—the Iranian-supported Shia militia in Iraq and Syria and southern Lebanon, and throughout the world?

    FP: Two previous administrations have reportedly considered this course of action and dismissed it. Why did Trump act now?

    DP: The reasoning seems to be to show in the most significant way possible that the U.S. is just not going to allow the continued violence—the rocketing of our bases, the killing of an American contractor, the attacks on shipping, on unarmed drones—without a very significant response.

    Many people had rightly questioned whether American deterrence had eroded somewhat because of the relatively insignificant responses to the earlier actions. This clearly was of vastly greater importance. Of course it also, per the Defense Department statement, was a defensive action given the reported planning and contingencies that Suleimani was going to Iraq to discuss and presumably approve.

    This was in response to the killing of an American contractor, the wounding of American forces, and just a sense of how this could go downhill from here if the Iranians don’t realize that this cannot continue.

    FP: Do you think this response was proportionate?

    DP: It was a defensive response and this is, again, of enormous consequence and significance. But now the question is: How does Iran respond with its own forces and its proxies, and then what does that lead the U.S. to do?

    Iran is in a very precarious economic situation, it is very fragile domestically—they’ve killed many, many hundreds if not thousands of Iranian citizens who were demonstrating on the streets of Iran in response to the dismal economic situation and the mismanagement and corruption. I just don’t see the Iranians as anywhere near as supportive of the regime at this point as they were decades ago during the Iran-Iraq War. Clearly the supreme leader has to consider that as Iran considers the potential responses to what the U.S. has done.

    It will be interesting now to see if there is a U.S. diplomatic initiative to reach out to Iran and to say, “Okay, the next move could be strikes against your oil infrastructure and your forces in your country—where does that end?”

    FP: Will Iran consider this an act of war?

    DP: I don’t know what that means, to be truthful. They clearly recognize how very significant it was. But as to the definition—is a cyberattack an act of war? No one can ever answer that. We haven’t declared war, but we have taken a very, very significant action.

    FP: How prepared is the U.S. to protect its forces in the region?


    DP: We’ve taken numerous actions to augment our air defenses in the region, our offensive capabilities in the region, in terms of general purpose and special operations forces and air assets. The Pentagon has considered the implications the potential consequences and has done a great deal to mitigate the risks—although you can’t fully mitigate the potential risks.

    FP: Do you think the decision to conduct this attack on Iraqi soil was overly provocative?

    DP: Again what was the alternative? Do it in Iran? Think of the implications of that. This is the most formidable adversary that we have faced for decades. He is a combination of CIA director, JSOC [Joint Special Operations Command] commander, and special presidential envoy for the region. This is a very significant effort to reestablish deterrence, which obviously had not been shored up by the relatively insignificant responses up until now.

    FP: What is the likelihood that there will be an all-out war?

    DP: Obviously all sides will suffer if this becomes a wider war, but Iran has to be very worried that—in the state of its economy, the significant popular unrest and demonstrations against the regime—that this is a real threat to the regime in a way that we have not seen prior to this.

    FP: Given the maximum pressure campaign that has crippled its economy, the designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, and now this assassination, what incentive does Iran have to negotiate now?

    DP: The incentive would be to get out from under the sanctions, which are crippling. Could we get back to the Iran nuclear deal plus some additional actions that could address the shortcomings of the agreement?

    This is a very significant escalation, and they don’t know where this goes any more than anyone else does. Yes, they can respond and they can retaliate, and that can lead to further retaliation—and that it is clear now that the administration is willing to take very substantial action. This is a pretty clarifying moment in that regard.

    FP: What will Iran do to retaliate?

    DP: Right now they are probably doing what anyone does in this situation: considering the menu of options. There could be actions in the gulf, in the Strait of Hormuz by proxies in the regional countries, and in other continents where the Quds Force have activities. There’s a very considerable number of potential responses by Iran, and then there’s any number of potential U.S. responses to those actions

    Given the state of their economy, I think they have to be very leery, very concerned that that could actually result in the first real challenge to the regime certainly since the Iran-Iraq War.

    FP: Will the Iraqi government kick the U.S. military out of Iraq?

    DP: The prime minister has said that he would put forward legislation to do that, although I don’t think that the majority of Iraqi leaders want to see that given that ISIS is still a significant threat. They are keenly aware that it was not the Iranian supported militias that defeated the Islamic State, it was U.S.-enabled Iraqi armed forces and special forces that really fought the decisive battles.
    https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/03...sh-deterrence/
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  2. #2
    High Plains Lifter Mark1T's Avatar
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    I believe this because it is logical. Iran has been trying to be a pain in the ass to shipping in the Hormuz Strait with sabotage more than once, shot down a $100 million drone, terrorize our military ships with their go-fast gun boats, Soleimani perfected the IUD to kill and maim hundreds of US soldiers, they proliferate and export terrorism throughout the Middle East via their proxies. And the dems are pissed Trump took out a designated terrorist as he was planning on more terrorism in Iraq.

    Killing Soleimani got Iran's attention and stunned Ayatollah Khamenei according to retired American four-star general Jack Keane.
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    I mean, no chit? I said it after it happened.

    We've basically allowed Iran to run around Iraq with impunity. They attacked the embassy and killed a US citizen in the same week. Doing "nothing" makes us look weak.

    Killing one of their top leaders not only signals that we're done playing around, but also sends a message to every other leader that we can take you out in an instant so knock it off.

    It ends a decade of limp wristed foreign policy. Why are we spending so much on defense if we're going to let idiots attack us without any response?
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    Originally Posted by Dan_S View Post
    I mean, no chit? I said it after it happened.

    We've basically allowed Iran to run around Iraq with impunity. They attacked the embassy and killed a US citizen in the same week. Doing "nothing" makes us look weak.

    Killing one of their top leaders not only signals that we're done playing around, but also sends a message to every other leader that we can take you out in an instant so knock it off.

    It ends a decade of limp wristed foreign policy. Why are we spending so much on defense if we're going to let idiots attack us without any response?
    Exactly.
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    Wait, this doesnt line up with what the resident leftists here are telling us. How can a general know more than our friends here?
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    Originally Posted by Mark1T View Post
    I believe this because it is logical. Iran has been trying to be a pain in the ass to shipping in the Hormuz Strait with sabotage more than once, shot down a $100 million drone, terrorize our military ships with their go-fast gun boats, Soleimani perfected the IUD to kill and maim hundreds of US soldiers, they proliferate and export terrorism throughout the Middle East via their proxies. And the dems are pissed Trump took out a designated terrorist as he was planning on more terrorism in Iraq.

    Killing Soleimani got Iran's attention and stunned Ayatollah Khamenei according to retired American four-star general Jack Keane.
    That's why all the people who are protesting and whatnot, it's just a knee jerk reaction they have no idea what the reality is. I will be the first to say that the last thing we need is another war in the Middle East, one that could turn into a World War, No one wants that but Iran is not a harmless, innocent nation.
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    "May Have"
    Wait and see....... but super security around the DC Metro area has snarled traffic today!
    sums it up a thread will start off promising and then turn into name calling..
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    considering Petraeus has been critical of Trump in the past (with reason based on info he had at the time) a lot of what he said makes sense.

    those reeeing about Trump are purposefully ignoring how Iran treats it's citizens in order to attack trump.
    They ignore the death of the American contractor and all the other chit Iran has been doing to poke the hornets nest that is the U.S. just to attack trump and it is sickening.
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    Originally Posted by ~Hades~ View Post
    Wait, this doesnt line up with what the resident leftists here are telling us. How can a general know more than our friends here?
    Well you see.. the left can't meme. And so they go on FB and see all these WWIII memes and think "OMG REEEEE Trump is sending us to WWIII reeeeeeee" etc etc etc. So it kinda makes sense that would be their reaction.
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    Originally Posted by ~Hades~ View Post
    Wait, this doesnt line up with what the resident leftists here are telling us. How can a general know more than our friends here?

    That's been the most funny aspect of all the threads. I was completely unaware that misc was so rich in military and geo-political experts.
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    If Iran doesn't do anything out of the norm in response to Salami's death, they now know who their daddy is and it's a wake up call for China who believes that the US doesn't have an appetite for risk anymore. I do agree though it was a big gamble to take because Iran can be unpredictable. It's been relatively calm since this occurred, I don't know whether that's a good thing or bad thing at this point but still hoping for the best.
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    Originally Posted by Mark1T View Post
    I believe this because it is logical. Iran has been trying to be a pain in the ass to shipping in the Hormuz Strait with sabotage more than once, shot down a $100 million drone, terrorize our military ships with their go-fast gun boats, Soleimani perfected the IUD to kill and maim hundreds of US soldiers, they proliferate and export terrorism throughout the Middle East via their proxies. And the dems are pissed Trump took out a designated terrorist as he was planning on more terrorism in Iraq.

    Killing Soleimani got Iran's attention and stunned Ayatollah Khamenei according to retired American four-star general Jack Keane.
    Althought it may be true the main goal was to drive the US out of the middle east: Iraq, Syria, afghanistan, etc.. By trying to created division through propaganda, sanctions, pressures, etc.. It actually had the reverse affect on the majority of people are more united now// Bottom line Iran's long term interests conflicts with the US long term interests in the M.E.. and since the M.E is within Iran's neck of the woods, Iran has more legitimatcy being in those countries than the US does...

    More closer to culture, religion & history.. Plus a common enemy for creating wars (Iraq war, etc)

    The longer and more we stay in the M.E the more repercussions will be made in the long run as the US vs the world seems more plausible and not worth the investments.. Imagine a war breaks out and the # of refugees fleeing again to Europe, Americas, etc.. Iran has a population of 80M which is almost more than afghanistan, iraq & syria combined... and even so people from those countries will be fleeing too because bombs will be flying across continents to drive out the occupying force even more (US)

    //

    If a war breaks out across the crescent vs the US, China may take the opportunity to advance its goals in the south china sea, unhappy regarding their one belt initiative will take a hit, Russia to the east, etc.. especially that Russia would not like having more US bases across their doorstep..
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    Originally Posted by x-trainer ben View Post
    "May Have"
    Wait and see....... but super security around the DC Metro area has snarled traffic today!
    Really?
    The Parks Police stepping up security at national monuments has brought traffic to a crawl in the whole DC metro area?

    sure it has.

    do you have anything truthful to say or on topic?
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    Originally Posted by NitrogenWidget View Post
    Really?
    The Parks Police stepping up security at national monuments has brought traffic to a crawl in the whole DC metro area?

    sure it has.

    do you have anything truthful to say or on topic?
    Do you live here?
    Traffic by NIH and Walter Reed across the street was backed up onto the beltway ramp.
    They changed the gate entrance system so the process is much slower on 355.

    So DO YOU have anything truthful to say ?

    I live here, you just like to hear yourself talk.
    I said wait and see because the threats from Iran are real and early.
    You don't get to decide what people talk about on here, if you don't like the reply to a post, skip it and parrot others.
    sums it up a thread will start off promising and then turn into name calling..
    The easiest way to tell when an argument has no merit is when the protagonist mixes in some personal insults.
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    Originally Posted by XterraRob View Post
    If Iran doesn't do anything out of the norm in response to Salami's death, they now know who their daddy is and it's a wake up call for China who believes that the US doesn't have an appetite for risk anymore. I do agree though it was a big gamble to take because Iran can be unpredictable. It's been relatively calm since this occurred, I don't know whether that's a good thing or bad thing at this point but still hoping for the best.
    I agree. It would be amazing if Iran ends up not responding, and quite frankly, it would ultimately end up being a massive win for Trump. But if they respond with military force, then we pretty much have no choice but to declare war, in which case this could have ended up being a massive mistake. I agree that it was a huge gamble and I'm rather risk averse, but time will tell now.
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    Originally Posted by ~Hades~ View Post
    Wait, this doesnt line up with what the resident leftists here are telling us. How can a general know more than our friends here?


    (This was from back before the left learned to love and worship the CIA)
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    Originally Posted by x-trainer ben View Post
    Do you live here?
    Traffic by NIH and Walter Reed across the street was backed up onto the beltway ramp.
    They changed the gate entrance system so the process is much slower on 355.

    So DO YOU have anything truthful to say ?

    I live here, you just like to hear yourself talk.
    I said wait and see because the threats from Iran are real and early.
    You don't get to decide what people talk about on here, if you don't like the reply to a post, skip it and parrot others.
    LOL!
    You claimed the malls were empty and businesses were suffering because of "trumps" government shutdown.
    And other's who live in DC proved you wrong.

    the fact is, you have lied in the past because #orangemanbad.
    you are angry because you have been called out again.
    I checked the news for the DC area.
    I checked the traffic reports also and guess what?
    Nothing was reported out of the ordinary other than construction, disabled vehicle and there is some event going on that requires traffic control on one rte.

    So please, tell us where security is snarling traffic and exactly how?

    I call Fake News on your part.
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    Originally Posted by ~Hades~ View Post
    Wait, this doesnt line up with what the resident leftists here are telling us. How can a general know more than our friends here?
    That's the difference between looking at things through a logical filter vs an emotional one.
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    Originally Posted by x-trainer ben View Post
    Do you live here?
    Traffic by NIH and Walter Reed across the street was backed up onto the beltway ramp.
    They changed the gate entrance system so the process is much slower on 355.

    So DO YOU have anything truthful to say ?

    I live here, you just like to hear yourself talk.
    I said wait and see because the threats from Iran are real and early.
    You don't get to decide what people talk about on here, if you don't like the reply to a post, skip it and parrot others.
    Traffic at the NIH and Walter Reed is always a chit show. Also time frame is relevant here since DC has one of the worst rush hours in this market.
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    Originally Posted by NitrogenWidget View Post
    Really?
    The Parks Police stepping up security at national monuments has brought traffic to a crawl in the whole DC metro area?

    sure it has.

    do you have anything truthful to say or on topic?
    Originally Posted by x-trainer ben View Post
    Do you live here?
    Traffic by NIH and Walter Reed across the street was backed up onto the beltway ramp.
    They changed the gate entrance system so the process is much slower on 355.

    So DO YOU have anything truthful to say ?

    I live here, you just like to hear yourself talk.
    I said wait and see because the threats from Iran are real and early.
    You don't get to decide what people talk about on here, if you don't like the reply to a post, skip it and parrot others.
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    Somebody's daughter Retoaded's Avatar
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    Trying to decide if I want to listen to Petraeus or a red miscer....
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    Originally Posted by Retoaded View Post
    Trying to decide if I want to listen to Petraeus or a red miscer....
    Dude...wtf is up with that Avi? Is that you on a peloton? Don't you know how garbage that company is? Way to overpay for a fukking bike.

    Negged.
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    Originally Posted by NitrogenWidget View Post
    LOL!
    You claimed the malls were empty and businesses were suffering because of "trumps" government shutdown.
    And other's who live in DC proved you wrong.

    the fact is, you have lied in the past because #orangemanbad.
    you are angry because you have been called out again.
    I checked the news for the DC area.
    I checked the traffic reports also and guess what?
    Nothing was reported out of the ordinary other than construction, disabled vehicle and there is some event going on that requires traffic control on one rte.

    So please, tell us where security is snarling traffic and exactly how?

    I call Fake News on your part.
    fuking REKT

    My man is checking local traffic and came prepared to refute the bullchit lies X-ben posts here hahahahaha , what a boss
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    Originally Posted by Retoaded View Post
    Trying to decide if I want to listen to Petraeus or a red miscer....
    Or the hyper-left miscers. What a predicament!
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    “Is it better to be loved than feared?”

    Machiavelli’s answer to this question is quite familiar to modern day readers. He writes, “The answer is that one would like to be both one and the other; but because it is difficult to combine them, it is far better to be feared than loved if you cannot be both”
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    Originally Posted by Chowboy View Post
    Salami getting his last ride in The Heart Beat of America


    I thought they had to use his ring to identify him because there was so little left.
    they don't need all that much car to move him.
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    Originally Posted by Audioslave View Post
    I agree. It would be amazing if Iran ends up not responding, and quite frankly, it would ultimately end up being a massive win for Trump. But if they respond with military force, then we pretty much have no choice but to declare war, in which case this could have ended up being a massive mistake. I agree that it was a huge gamble and I'm rather risk averse, but time will tell now.
    So far, everything is indicating that Iran isn't going to do anything except some lowly cyber attacks and continue their proxy wars, except now if a proxy unit attacks, it would be more than obvious that its Iran. I seriously doubt Iranian leadership are trying to live the rest of their days hiding out in a cave.
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