★Early bird fantasy football discussion 2019★

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

Like Jayarbie said, a bunch of those rbs/wrs were busts. Happens every year too. Just feels way easier to make the playoffs with a stud QB than without also good luck beating both the Mahomes and Lamar owners in the playoffs.

Absolutely. true. The years I won championships were years I went QB early in like 5 or 6 for a top passer.

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

My original response wasn't to you, it was to Juggs' statement that he thinks we've seen Allen's ceiling as a passer. I think he still has considerable upside and potential to develop that part of his game.

I think you're right that he has potential, but I don't see him developing into a 300yd/game passer. I think he can improve with his accuracy and decision making, but ultimately I don't see a "jump" coming if that makes sense?

EDIT: I'm mostly referring to Fantasy Football with this BTW, as far as an NFL QB, I think he will definitely improve.

[Murph0408]

Absolutely. true. The years I won championships were years I went QB early in like 5 or 6 for a top passer.

right but what if you took aaron rodgers this year. you feel obligated to start him, and he's had maybe 3 big games, but he probably cost you a playoff spot overall and you missed out on guys like jarvis landry, golladay, maybe mark ingram etc depending on the round.

no sure thing overall. on the josh allen comments i do agree we should see what he does with a real #1. john brown is having a great season but he's 30 and more of a 'top off the defense' outside threat. ice cole beasely is a fine possesion guy. but let allen work with a talent at the caliber of mike evans, mike thomas, hopkins cooper whoever. that's obviously on the bills to draft a stud or make a move for one.

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

right but what if you took aaron rodgers this year. you feel obligated to start him, and he's had maybe 3 big games, but he probably cost you a playoff spot overall and you missed out on guys like jarvis landry, golladay, maybe mark ingram etc depending on the round.

no sure thing overall. on the josh allen comments i do agree we should see what he does with a real #1. john brown is having a great season but he's 30 and more of a 'top off the defense' outside threat. ice cole beasely is a fine possesion guy. but let allen work with a talent at the caliber of mike evans, mike thomas, hopkins cooper whoever. that's obviously on the bills to draft a stud or make a move for one.

Rodgers I would not have taken early however. He hasn't been the same 40+ TD QB he was after those injuries. Rodgers in his prime however would have been a different story. If you took a guy like Watson, Mahomes or Russell this year, they could be winning you weeks.

[Jayarbie]

I think you're right that he has potential, but I don't see him developing into a 300yd/game passer. I think he can improve with his accuracy and decision making, but ultimately I don't see a "jump" coming if that makes sense?

EDIT: I'm mostly referring to Fantasy Football with this BTW, as far as an NFL QB, I think he will definitely improve.

To be fair, there are only 4 guys averaging 300 yds/gm this year and 2 are Stafford and Jameis who got that from having a terrible run game and playing from behind every game. Same with last year - there were only 3 and two (Ben and Ryan) were constantly playing catch-up with a subpar run game. The 300 yds/gm threshold often says more about your team's game scripts than your QB's arm talent. The only guy on the list for a winning team both last year and this year is Mahomes, who was the MVP last year. It's a little unfair to use him as Allen's measuring stick.

As far as Allen goes, whether he gets to the "elite passer" level also depends on their offense. If they play a run-first offense and never get elite talent at WR, then he's definitely never going to get there, but if they develop into a more pass-oriented offense and add the talent at receiver to support it, which they may have to do since running QBs often start to lag in that area after 3 or 4 seasons, then he very well could if his development stays on track for the next 2 years. We'll see.

[Jayarbie]

right but what if you took aaron rodgers this year. you feel obligated to start him, and he's had maybe 3 big games, but he probably cost you a playoff spot overall and you missed out on guys like jarvis landry, golladay, maybe mark ingram etc depending on the round.

no sure thing overall. on the josh allen comments i do agree we should see what he does with a real #1. john brown is having a great season but he's 30 and more of a 'top off the defense' outside threat. ice cole beasely is a fine possesion guy. but let allen work with a talent at the caliber of mike evans, mike thomas, hopkins cooper whoever. that's obviously on the bills to draft a stud or make a move for one.

If you took Rodgers with a high pick this year, then that was a bad pick, and it's no surprise that it set your team back. Typically, there are maybe one or two QBs who are head and shoulders above the rest, and if you don't get them, then you definitely shouldn't reach for a 2nd tier one. This year is was Mahomes. Next year, it will be Lamar and possibly Mahomes. Other guys, I would definitely wait on because after you get past the very top elite guys, there are about 20 who are decent enough in fantasy to just draft late and play.

[Tyler2106]

I think you're right that he has potential, but I don't see him developing into a 300yd/game passer. I think he can improve with his accuracy and decision making, but ultimately I don't see a "jump" coming if that makes sense?

EDIT: I'm mostly referring to Fantasy Football with this BTW, as far as an NFL QB, I think he will definitely improve.

Josh Allen will continue to improve. He's a solid QB right now, but still learning and getting better. The Bills aren't designed to be a 300 yard passing team. I don't remember the last time they were. With how Allen is developing and how the Bills are finally seeing success, I wouldn't doubt if they try to bring in more offensive talent.

As far as Brown's talent, he's never been in the #1 spotlight, but I think he's better than what people are giving him credit for in here. No he's not an elite talent, but he's solid. Good chance he finishes the year with ~75 catches, 1200 yards and 8-9 TDs. Pretty great season for a WR in a run first offense.

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

To be fair, there are only 4 guys averaging 300 yds/gm this year and 2 are Stafford and Jameis who got that from having a terrible run game and playing from behind every game. Same with last year - there were only 3 and two (Ben and Ryan) were constantly playing catch-up with a subpar run game. The 300 yds/gm threshold often says more about your team's game scripts than your QB's arm talent. The only guy on the list for a winning team both last year and this year is Mahomes, who was the MVP last year. It's a little unfair to use him as Allen's measuring stick.

As far as Allen goes, whether he gets to the "elite passer" level also depends on their offense. If they play a run-first offense and never get elite talent at WR, then he's definitely never going to get there, but if they develop into a more pass-oriented offense and add the talent at receiver to support it, which they may have to do since running QBs often start to lag in that area after 3 or 4 seasons, then he very well could if his development stays on track for the next 2 years. We'll see.

Josh Allen will continue to improve. He's a solid QB right now, but still learning and getting better. The Bills aren't designed to be a 300 yard passing team. I don't remember the last time they were. With how Allen is developing and how the Bills are finally seeing success, I wouldn't doubt if they try to bring in more offensive talent.

As far as Brown's talent, he's never been in the #1 spotlight, but I think he's better than what people are giving him credit for in here. No he's not an elite talent, but he's solid. Good chance he finishes the year with ~75 catches, 1200 yards and 8-9 TDs. Pretty great season for a WR in a run first offense.

I think you guys are missing my point. I'm not saying he won't improve as a QB. I'm saying his fantasy production is most likely not going to escalate too much higher. He's good for the run TDS, rush yards and a respectable passing day. He won't be in that tier that routinely puts up 30pts/game. He's going to be a 18-24 guy with the occasional big game sprinkled in.

[Tyler2106]

I think you guys are missing my point. I'm not saying he won't improve as a QB. I'm saying his fantasy production is most likely not going to escalate too much higher. He's good for the run TDS, rush yards and a respectable passing day. He won't be in that tier that routinely puts up 30pts/game. He's going to be a 18-24 guy with the occasional big game sprinkled in.

My bad, I was talking more real life analysis, not fantasy. I agree with you that he'll always be in the middle tier of QBs unless that offense changes drastically.

[Jayarbie]

I think you guys are missing my point. I'm not saying he won't improve as a QB. I'm saying his fantasy production is most likely not going to escalate too much higher. He's good for the run TDS, rush yards and a respectable passing day. He won't be in that tier that routinely puts up 30pts/game. He's going to be a 18-24 guy with the occasional big game sprinkled in.

No, I'm talking about fantasy, too. I doubt he'll ever be "elite of the elite" Mahomes level fantasy guy because that is a generational talent in both real and fantasy football, but if their offense evolves into a more pass-oriented offense over time and his passing skills develop as they are now, he could end up top 5 or 6 fantasy QB (i.e. a top end QB1 type). It's going to take both further development in his passing skills and an evolution of the Bills offense to a more passing style (with an injection of receiver skills as well). Brady just had average passing numbers his first 4 seasons (235 yds/gm or less plus at least 12 int) before exploding in his 5th (age 28) season as his passing accuracy and defense reading skills evolved to where he could exploit defenses at will. He eventually peaked in his age 30 season when they got Moss and he threw for nearly 5000 yards and 50 TDs (with only 8 int).

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

No, I'm talking about fantasy, too. I doubt he'll ever be "elite of the elite" Mahomes level fantasy guy because that is a generational talent in both real and fantasy football, but if their offense evolves into a more pass-oriented offense over time and his passing skills develop as they are now, he could end up top 5 or 6 fantasy QB (i.e. a top end QB1 type). It's going to take both further development in his passing skills and an evolution of the Bills offense to a more passing style (with an injection of receiver skills as well). Brady just had average passing numbers his first 4 seasons (235 yds/gm or less plus at least 12 int) before exploding in his 5th (age 28) season as his passing accuracy and defense reading skills evolved to where he could exploit defenses at will. He eventually peaked in his age 30 season when they got Moss and he threw for nearly 5000 yards and 50 TDs (with only 8 int).

Not saying it isn't possible to grow to that, just saying I don't see it. Allen strikes me as an athlete playing QB, as opposed to an athletic QB (if that makes sense). Also - hard to use Brady's example there because he had 20 years of being coached by the greatest coach in NFL history. Having a HC that long is an anomaly in today's NFL.

[Jayarbie]

Not saying it isn't possible to grow to that, just saying I don't see it. Allen strikes me as an athlete playing QB, as opposed to an athletic QB (if that makes sense). Also - hard to use Brady's example there because he had 20 years of being coached by the greatest coach in NFL history. Having a HC that long is an anomaly in today's NFL.

With Brady, I'm really just talking about the time it took to reach his peak. The fact that he's maintained peak performance for almost 15 years is an entirely different thing that no one else has ever done.

On a different note, the Eagles cut Jordan Matthews, Agholor and Jeffrey are both practicing in full this week, and Pederson is promising to get JJ Arcega-Whiteside more involved in the offense. With Ertz and Goedert also both healthy, this means that none of the WRs are fantasy playable because there's just not enough targets, but more importantly, it's a major boost for Wentz (and the Eagles offense in general). The difference between Matthews & Mack Hollins and Jeffrey & JJAW is going to be noticeable. They have a get-right matchup with a Miami D that just got torched by Baker last week.

[sfgiants13]

If I win this week I'm in the playoffs. I have Jones, DJ, Guice, and just picked up Shady off of waivers. Jones is obvious but who would you choose for the #2 RB? Leaning McCoy since DJ is likely useless now and Guice is a crapshoot.

[bullybreed]

With Brady, I'm really just talking about the time it took to reach his peak. The fact that he's maintained peak performance for almost 15 years is an entirely different thing that no one else has ever done.

On a different note, the Eagles cut Jordan Matthews, Agholor and Jeffrey are both practicing in full this week, and Pederson is promising to get JJ Arcega-Whiteside more involved in the offense. With Ertz and Goedert also both healthy, this means that none of the WRs are fantasy playable because there's just not enough targets, but more importantly, it's a major boost for Wentz (and the Eagles offense in general). The difference between Matthews & Mack Hollins and Jeffrey & JJAW is going to be noticeable. They have a get-right matchup with a Miami D that just got torched by Baker last week.

Pederson can promise and talk all he wants. Jeffery is startable as a low end WR2 in that match-up if he's back healthy like it seems he will be. Wentz has been ass but he's still been throwing the ball 40 times a game. There is plenty of targets to go around. Jeffery will soak up 8-10 of those.

[Jayarbie]

If I win this week I'm in the playoffs. I have Jones, DJ, Guice, and just picked up Shady off of waivers. Jones is obvious but who would you choose for the #2 RB? Leaning McCoy since DJ is likely useless now and Guice is a crapshoot.

If Damian Williams is out, I'd feel better about Shady, although Darrel Williams would get a lot of run, too. Andy is trying to limit McCoy's touches to keep him fresh for next year when he's no longer on the roster. LOL.

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

If I win this week I'm in the playoffs. I have Jones, DJ, Guice, and just picked up Shady off of waivers. Jones is obvious but who would you choose for the #2 RB? Leaning McCoy since DJ is likely useless now and Guice is a crapshoot.

Not a huge fan of any of those choices, but I guess Shady. Is Darrell Williams available? I think he's on the upswing with that offense. McCoy has been a ghost.

[sfgiants13]

Damien isn't available but Darrell is. I suppose I can drop Alshon Jeffrey to pick up Darrell. That leaves me with Amari, Keenan, OBJ, and Westbrook as my WR/flex with Watkins and Tate as bench players. That would allow me to see who's getting the lions share

[The_Standard]

Absolutely. true. The years I won championships were years I went QB early in like 5 or 6 for a top passer.

I hate taking QBs early or, in the case of my league, paying top round auction money for a QB. I got Lamar Jackson for $2. Feels good... Too bad I'll have to pay 20-25x that for him next year.

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

So with all the first round flops, and mid round bloomers, what do you guys think the top 10 look like next year?

[The_Standard]

So with all the first round flops, and mid round bloomers, what do you guys think the top 10 look like next year?

Christian McCaffrey will be far & away the ADP 1.
Lamar Jackson will obviously be the top QB off the board and will go in the top 5-10.
Dalvin Cook will go super high, and people won't handcuff him (poor decision).
Honestly, if you just look at the top 20 scorers in fantasy football this year, those will definitely be the top guys off the board next year.

We'll be able to get guys like Hopkins, Evans, and Barkley at steal-level positions.

[Jayarbie]

So with all the first round flops, and mid round bloomers, what do you guys think the top 10 look like next year?

CMC, Cook, Zeke, Lamar, Thomas, Fournette, Barkley, Kamara, Tyreek, Chubb

That's not necessarily in any order. Ekeler is also a possibility (esp PPR) depending on what happens to Gordon.

[The_Standard]

CMC, Cook, Zeke, Lamar, Thomas, Fournette, Barkley, Kamara, Tyreek, Chubb

That's not necessarily in any order. Ekeler is also a possibility (esp PPR) depending on what happens to Gordon.

Disagree with Barkley. He's been frustrating to own this season; no way I'd take him in the top 10 again.

[bullybreed]

Disagree with Barkley. He's been frustrating to own this season; no way I'd take him in the top 10 again.

He came back from a high ankle sprain way too early. He's still a top 10 pick. You're stupid if you pass him up in the first round. Engram has been hurt off and on as well as Shepard. That offense will be better next season with Jones another year under his belt and a full off season as a starter.

[Jayarbie]

Disagree with Barkley. He's been frustrating to own this season; no way I'd take him in the top 10 again.

Barkley owners this year will hesitate to take him next year. Everyone else who didn't feel that pain won't care.

[weightsb4dates]

CMC, Cook, Zeke, Lamar, Thomas, Fournette, Barkley, Kamara, Tyreek, Chubb

That's not necessarily in any order. Ekeler is also a possibility (esp PPR) depending on what happens to Gordon.

lamar top 10? idk abnout that, maybe in home leagues but more savvy players wills till fade qb. even studs like lamar who are legit (i.e. not touchdown monsters), will be taken in round 2 at the soonest

[Murph0408]

^let us not forget mister derrick henry, #3 overall in points (or thereabouts depending on settings) at the RB position. i'd have him in the top 10 next year.

1 Mccaff
2 Cook
3 Zeke (dependable, although a down year somewhat)
4 Saquon
5 Henry
6 Chubb
7 Mike Thomas
8 Reek Hill
9 ehh.....kamara
10 ehhhhh Fournette i guess.

guys like aaron jones, Ekeler, jacobs will all be flirting with top round rankings. i would've said carson up until recently. there is no reason to really downgrade Hopkins this much either, especially if he finishes strong. julio is always up there. i like reek because he can win you a game by himself but maybe his injuries scare people.

lamar would creep into the 2nd or top of 3rd round IMO.

[Jayarbie]

lamar top 10? idk abnout that, maybe in home leagues but more savvy players wills till fade qb. even studs like lamar who are legit (i.e. not touchdown monsters), will be taken in round 2 at the soonest

Lamar is the 8th best QB in passing points and the 20th best PPR RB in rushing points even without a single catch. He's a QB1 and RB2 in a single player. He's going to be drafted in the top 10 in a lot of leagues next year. In my money league, he's 40 points ahead of CMC for most total points and 55 ahead of Russell Wilson for most QB points.

[The_Standard]

He came back from a high ankle sprain way too early. He's still a top 10 pick. You're stupid if you pass him up in the first round. Engram has been hurt off and on as well as Shepard. That offense will be better next season with Jones another year under his belt and a full off season as a starter.

I'd say stupid is a bit harsh. Saquon Barkley is talented, no doubt... But owning him has been super frustrating this year, especially after paying $60 in auction draft for him.

[dhawkeye1980]

Barkley owners this year will hesitate to take him next year. Everyone else who didn't feel that pain won't care.

Took barkley over cmc at 1. Fml

[Murph0408]

Took barkley over cmc at 1. Fml

dude so did 80-90% of everybody else. that's how it goes. you can't let that effect your pick of him next year if he is fully recovered by then.

every RB comes with this risk. that could happen to mccaff next year, or henry, or whoever. RB is a volatile position with health.