★Early bird fantasy football discussion 2019★

[Jayarbie]

I play with 1 point for 4th down stops, since it's equivalent to a turnover

seen some leagues do Yards Allowed as a metric instead of Points Against

Yards allowed is even worse than points because teams can dominate 3 quarters then go into prevent up 28-0 or something and give away yards in the 4th quarter to prevent long TDs. It's the flip side of the Blake Bortles effect the year Bortles was a top 10 fantasy QB pretty much entirely based on garbage time points.

[bullybreed]

I changed my defensive settings up this season.

Based mine off this post as it seemed to make a lot of sense. I didn't copy his settings specifically but used it to modify mine.

https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfoot...018_preseason/

[Jayarbie]

Frankly, defense is such a big part of the real game, I don't mind seeing fantasy defensive scoring a big part of the scoring, but only as long as the scores actually correlate to a defense playing well, and there is a pretty diverse way of including defensive scoring. I prefer leagues where the defensive scoring is weighted towards TDs, turnovers, sacks, hurries, stops, blocked kicks, etc., that are defensive plays that generally correlate with winning (instead of either points or yards allowed).

[bullybreed]

Frankly, defense is such a big part of the real game, I don't mind seeing fantasy defensive scoring a big part of the scoring, but only as long as the scores actually correlate to a defense playing well, and there is a pretty diverse way of including defensive scoring. I prefer leagues where the defensive scoring is weighted towards TDs, turnovers, sacks, hurries, stops, blocked kicks, etc., that are defensive plays that generally correlate with winning (instead of either points or yards allowed).

Points allowed is literally correlated with winning though.

I know you have "garbage time" points that can skew that, but generally when your defense allows less points your team has a better chance of winning, right?

My scoring is setup so that DSTs don't start with 10 points out of the gate and trend negatively (points allowed and yards allowed) as most standard DST scoring is setup. They start with 0 like every other position. As they get sacks, turnovers, 4th down stops etc. they trend upward. But like in the article I posted you have to control that upward trend somehow. So I do have negative points starting at 21 points allowed and tiered up from there.

This will be the first season I'm implementing this change, so we'll see how it works out.

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

Frankly, defense is such a big part of the real game, I don't mind seeing fantasy defensive scoring a big part of the scoring, but only as long as the scores actually correlate to a defense playing well, and there is a pretty diverse way of including defensive scoring. I prefer leagues where the defensive scoring is weighted towards TDs, turnovers, sacks, hurries, stops, blocked kicks, etc., that are defensive plays that generally correlate with winning (instead of either points or yards allowed).

D/ST and points/yards allowed is real tricky. I definitely don't feel yards allowed should affect the score, but points allowed is more difficult. Obviously you should be rewarded for a D/ST pitching a shutout, but at the same time it sucks when you're in a tight game, and your opponent ends up winning because your D/ST was up 35pts in real game and pulled their starters and the other team scores 17 garbage time points.

[Jayarbie]

Points allowed is literally correlated with winning though.

I know you have "garbage time" points that can skew that, but generally when your defense allows less points your team has a better chance of winning, right?

My scoring is setup so that DSTs don't start with 10 points out of the gate and trend negatively (points allowed and yards allowed) as most standard DST scoring is setup. They start with 0 like every other position. As they get sacks, turnovers, 4th down stops etc. they trend upward. But like in the article I posted you have to control that upward trend somehow. So I do have negative points starting at 21 points allowed and tiered up from there.

This will be the first season I'm implementing this change, so we'll see how it works out.

Point differential is correlated to winning, not necessarily points allowed. How many times do we see a team put in the most dominating first half performance they can, but since they are winning 28-0 at halftime, they let off and play soft and win 35-14. It was the dominating defense that got them the lead that allowed them to play softer in the second half, so arguably, that should be worth more than a defense that hangs on to win 17-14 because they have no margin. The way to ensure that's the case is to emphasize the plays that built the lead in the first half (i.e. the scores, TOs, stops, 3&outs, etc) and de-emphasize the final score which could be skewed by the level of dominance in the first half.

[bullybreed]

Point differential is correlated to winning, not necessarily points allowed. How many times do we see a team put in the most dominating first half performance they can, but since they are winning 28-0 at halftime, they let off and play soft and win 35-14. It was the dominating defense that got them the lead that allowed them to play softer in the second half, so arguably, that should be worth more than a defense that hangs on to win 17-14 because they have no margin. The way to ensure that's the case is to emphasize the plays that built the lead in the first half (i.e. the scores, TOs, stops, 3&outs, etc) and de-emphasize the final score which could be skewed by the level of dominance in the first half.

I get it, and I agree.

I've changed mine to do that. But teams need some sort of negative for allowing so many points. If they've pitched a shutout up until the 4th quarter and they let a TD or 2 slide because of their 2nd and 3rd team defense being on the field, my settings won't fault them for that. But if the other team starts running up the score 21+ they will. It's not a huge negative swing though. I think I only have it set for -2 each tier after 21+ points.

[Jayarbie]

I get it, and I agree.

I've changed mine to do that. But teams need some sort of negative for allowing so many points. If they've pitched a shutout up until the 4th quarter and they let a TD or 2 slide because of their 2nd and 3rd team defense being on the field, my settings won't fault them for that. But if the other team starts running up the score 21+ they will. It's not a huge negative swing though. I think I only have it set for -2 each tier after 21+ points.

That seems reasonable. It's not that scoring shouldn't be factored in at all, it's relatively how much DST fantasy points come from plays instead of score, and I think you have a good balance. I've been in leagues where a shutout bonus is +12 that drops to +7 for 0-6 points. Really? Allowing a garbage TD in a 35-0 blowout is worth that much? I don't think so. But if you have a majority of your points from plays and then a minor penalty for allowing too many points, that's seems fine.

[rise21]

What do you guys think about Gurley? I have him for cheap in a keeper league. Think I have to go with him, but I also have Marlon Mack for cheap. I can kind of see the Rams falling apart this year.

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

What do you guys think about Gurley? I have him for cheap in a keeper league. Think I have to go with him, but I also have Marlon Mack for cheap. I can kind of see the Rams falling apart this year.

Gurley's knee issue appears to be a real concern. I'd be hesitant to keep him over someone who came on strong end of the year like Mack if the pricetag is the same. I imagine Mack must be very cheap.

[yuja]

What do you guys think about Gurley? I have him for cheap in a keeper league. Think I have to go with him, but I also have Marlon Mack for cheap. I can kind of see the Rams falling apart this year.

define cheap, in rounds

I'd rather have Mack for cheap than Gurley for cheap if similar-ish values and you can keep them longer than this year

[rise21]

define cheap, in rounds

I'd rather have Mack for cheap than Gurley for cheap if similar-ish values and you can keep them longer than this year

It’s auction, budget of $200. Gurley would be about $45 and Mack about $13

[sandcar3]

It’s auction, budget of $200. Gurley would be about $45 and Mack about $13

Definitely Mack! Let someone else pay up for Gurley hurting their budget for other players, and then let them have to deal with the potential of him missing games or having a lot less touches. Could Gurley be the RB1 again, sure, but for a fraction of the price I'd bet on Mack getting more touches.

[yuja]

It’s auction, budget of $200. Gurley would be about $45 and Mack about $13

45 is like 2nd round RB value isn't it?

I'd definitely go with Mack for $13 and get another back for 45-50 that has healthy knees

[colbski]

would not touch gurley at all -- mcaff and mack with a tevin coleman pick up or sick WR/QB.

[dhawkeye1980]

Yards allowed is even worse than points because teams can dominate 3 quarters then go into prevent up 28-0 or something and give away yards in the 4th quarter to prevent long TDs. It's the flip side of the Blake Bortles effect the year Bortles was a top 10 fantasy QB pretty much entirely based on garbage time points.

Its not yards allowed, its return yards like punt and kick offs. Its usually 1pt for 25 yards. I usually do that and .25 points for tackle for loss.

[dhawkeye1980]

Good point about the defensive scoring, I may look into making some adjustments there. I remember a couple years ago a manager in my league had a pretty bad team but kept winning because the Jacksonville Defense kept putting up QB type numbers.

Adding a super-flex (WR/RB/TE/QB) position is another change I'm considering. I think everyone would then want 2 (if not 3) QB's which would drastically change draft strategies, and hopefully encourage trades throughout the year.

Jags def 2 years ago were putting up QB numbers even in standard scoring. Same w the bears last year

[bullybreed]

Jags def 2 years ago were putting up QB numbers even in standard scoring. Same w the bears last year

Yeah this is what prompted me to change my settings around. Gotta tone down that defensive scoring a bit. At the very least make it more balanced.

[rise21]

45 is like 2nd round RB value isn't it?

I'd definitely go with Mack for $13 and get another back for 45-50 that has healthy knees

Yea I got Gurley after his down year for really cheap, this is the last year I could keep him

[dhawkeye1980]

Yeah this is what prompted me to change my settings around. Gotta tone down that defensive scoring a bit. At the very least make it more balanced.

Right because its not like with every other defense you are lucky to get 5 pts from...

[DirectorBrah]

Whos having the better upcoming fantasy season. Mcaff or Elliot?

[Jayarbie]

Whos having the better upcoming fantasy season. Mcaff or Elliot?

In PPR, I'll take McCaffrey, standard is closer, but obviously, both are top notch RB1's.

[yuliangolodnykh]

What do you guys think about Gurley? I have him for cheap in a keeper league. Think I have to go with him, but I also have Marlon Mack for cheap. I can kind of see the Rams falling apart this year.

Stick with Gurley and get his backup on your bench. Gurley is too versatile to let slide.

[dhawkeye1980]

Whos having the better upcoming fantasy season. Mcaff or Elliot?

That feeling when you have them both in dynasty

[BLehner123]

Starting a new dynasty on sleeper with the new Tiered PPR format. Currently have 6 teams and looking to make it a 12 man dynasty. We will do payment through league safe but have yet to decide on how much and if we want to do empire payout or not. We hope to discuss all that with the whole league once filled. $50 is max we would probably do looking at more around $25-30 range but will leave that up for discussion. Roster size and starting line up can all be discussed upon. Currently it's a SF and one guy wants a TE premium and also .5 PPR on top of the tiered PPR. So for example a 15 yard catch will be 2.75 points while a 2 yard catch will be worth .95 points..

Draft order will be random and we will not draft until July 10thish depending on how fast we can fill the remaining 6 spots and get the league set up to everyone's liking. If you have any interest let me know.

[Iceman1800]

Woo hoo! July 1st. Time to get crazy for fantasy football 2019. Draft prep time boyos.

[Blasting]

Not a Packers fan but Aaron Jones is a huge sleeper this year. He looked awesome last year despite some Packers dysfunction. And now with McCarthy gone I think we’ll stop seeing Williams getting so much work.

[Jayarbie]

https://www.cleveland.com/metro/2019...=social&__twit

Kareem Hunt questioned after bar fight. Stupid as hell. Even if he personally did nothing, it's HIM who has the lucrative multi-million dollar career on the line. He needs to get rid of his hood rat gangbanger friends and stop hanging out at bars late at night where trouble is bound to happen. Get it together, man. You're on your last chance.

[yuja]

Not a Packers fan but Aaron Jones is a huge sleeper this year. He looked awesome last year despite some Packers dysfunction. And now with McCarthy gone I think we’ll stop seeing Williams getting so much work.

high on jones but he's not really a sleeper, he's going like 3rd/4th round

[lifter2019]

Whos having the better upcoming fantasy season. Mcaff or Elliot?

I'd go with Elliott because I think his place in the offense is more secure and we know what Dak is. Cam had shoulder surgery so who knows if that will mean less targets for CMC. I feel like if Cam is 100%, the team will be more inclined to bomb it downfield instead of throwing to CMC 15 times a game.