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  1. #121
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  2. #122
    IDDQD Austanian's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Dan_S View Post
    Is your point then that the Fed is failing miserably? I'm still confused.
    Not sure why....

    Ice actually did a decent job here. He is showing that the Fed did not raise interest rates in 2015 and 2016 because inflation was sub 2%. One of the Fed's primary goals is to spread out the peaks and valleys of market events. Deflation is bad and high inflation is also bad. Rates were kept way low for so long because they had to be. (Because raising them would cause deflation) However, we are nearing a new market crash/recession if past trends have any baring at all. If the fed doesn't have a way to cut interest rates when that event happens it will be bad.

    Currently the fed is working hard to keep the inflation rate at 2% which is fiscally sound. Even though it may bring the new market crash/recession a little sooner. Typical economic cycle is 7 years and we are at 10. People get stupid when they think of the market as a "sure thing".

    Originally Posted by arn710 View Post
    In4 more condescending comments, spelling and grammar criticisms and memes recycled 21398760874353 times by miceman
    Not sure where you are going here. His posts were pretty relevant to the topic.
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  3. #123
    AAS Free since '93 Jacobcapra's Avatar
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    just chiming in the dow is up 275 today right now



    Oh wait that's right one day on the stock market is pretty meaningless
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  4. #124
    move or die! |ceman's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Austanian View Post
    Not sure why....

    Ice actually did a decent job here. He is showing that the Fed did not raise interest rates in 2015 and 2016 because inflation was sub 2%. One of the Fed's primary goals is to spread out the peaks and valleys of market events. Deflation is bad and high inflation is also bad. Rates were kept way low for so long because they had to be. (Because raising them would cause deflation) However, we are nearing a new market crash/recession if past trends have any baring at all. If the fed doesn't have a way to cut interest rates when that event happens it will be bad.

    Currently the fed is working hard to keep the inflation rate at 2% which is fiscally sound. Even though it may bring the new market crash/recession a little sooner. Typical economic cycle is 7 years and we are at 10. People get stupid when they think of the market as a "sure thing".



    Not sure where you are going here. His posts were pretty relevant to the topic.


    Austanian gets it.

    Funny how other posters lack the requisite knowledge on the subject but will debate it regardless and when someone comes in with accurate facts on the matter, it completely blows over their head and instead they get their jimmies rustled.
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  5. #125
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    Originally Posted by Jacobcapra View Post
    just chiming in the dow is up 275 today right now



    Oh wait that's right one day on the stock market is pretty meaningless
    Dow is up 70 points and the Fed is going to raise rates again.
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  6. #126
    move or die! |ceman's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jacobcapra View Post
    just chiming in the dow is up 275 today right now



    Oh wait that's right one day on the stock market is pretty meaningless
    which is why you look at metrics like 50/200 day moving averages....which are not looking very good:




    why that matters? read this: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...ket-2018-12-17

    cliff notes - when the 50 day moving average crosses the 200 day to the downside, it's called the "death cross"
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  7. #127
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    this is george washington's economy, takes 250 years til the next president's economy sets in
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  8. #128
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    Originally Posted by |ceman View Post
    which is why you look at metrics like 50/200 day moving averages....which are not looking very good:




    why that matters? read this: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...ket-2018-12-17

    cliff notes - when the 50 day moving average crosses the 200 day to the downside, it's called the "death cross"
    The 3 month chart is also pretty scary. Lower highs and lower lows.
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  9. #129
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    Originally Posted by Jacobcapra View Post
    just chiming in the dow is up 275 today right now



    Oh wait that's right one day on the stock market is pretty meaningless
    Ehhh... dow down 350 now.
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  10. #130
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    Originally Posted by arn710 View Post
    In4 more condescending comments, spelling and grammar criticisms and memes recycled 21398760874353 times by miceman
    fact: none of that happened ITT


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  11. #131
    AAS Free since '93 Jacobcapra's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by NYPat View Post
    Ehhh... dow down 350 now.

    Again you've stupendously missed the point completely.


    I'm trying to point out that looking at a snapshot of the dow or how it performed on a single day is stupid. Both you and Iceman appear to have completely missed the tongue in cheek of my post, even though in the second line I right-out said it.
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  12. #132
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    Originally Posted by Jacobcapra View Post
    Again you've stupendously missed the point completely.


    I'm trying to point out that looking at a snapshot of the dow or how it performed on a single day is stupid. Both you and Iceman appear to have completely missed the tongue in cheek of my post, even though in the second line I right-out said it.
    Cool story, I like the way you prove your point by telling us the dow was up 275 TODAY.

    But since we're looking at it over a period of time, how'd we do this month? Or this year?
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  13. #133
    AAS Free since '93 Jacobcapra's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by NYPat View Post
    Cool story, I like the way you prove your point by telling us the dow was up 275 TODAY.

    But since we're looking at it over a period of time, how'd we do this month? Or this year?


    That's the tongue in cheek bit that I was stating you didn't comprehend, thanks for reinforcing my point.


    Let me dumb it down. talking about the market's day to day performance is not useful. Yet here we are in a thread with a title doing just that. So I made a post in which the first line I did just what you did, then in the second line pointed out how meaningless it is. Case in point as it has swung like 500 points in a couple hours since my post.

    In fewer words, the point of this thread is dumb. And even when I straight up say it you can't seem to grasp what I'm saying.
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  14. #134
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    Originally Posted by NYPat View Post
    Ehhh... dow down 350 now.
    yeah 600 point response to another quarter point rate hike by the Fed.
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  15. #135
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    Thanks for the 52 week low Trump! Trade wars are easy to win!
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  16. #136
    Registered User Jrd86's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Renegade83 View Post
    Thanks for the 52 week low Trump! Trade wars are easy to win!
    You're such a gullible dumbass. The dow was up over 300pts prior to the fed announcing it would hike rates. Within 5 minutes after announcing interest rate hikes, the dow went 300pts in the red (a 600pt swing). This is about the fed trying to cause a recession. Nothing to do with a trade war you idiot.
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    Originally Posted by Jacobcapra View Post
    That's the tongue in cheek bit that I was stating you didn't comprehend, thanks for reinforcing my point.


    Let me dumb it down. talking about the market's day to day performance is not useful. Yet here we are in a thread with a title doing just that. So I made a post in which the first line I did just what you did, then in the second line pointed out how meaningless it is. Case in point as it has swung like 500 points in a couple hours since my post.

    In fewer words, the point of this thread is dumb. And even when I straight up say it you can't seem to grasp what I'm saying.
    So if the stock market was down 275 points today you would have made the same tongue-in-cheek post?..

    And I noticed you didn't answer my questions.
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  18. #138
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    Originally Posted by Jrd86 View Post
    You're such a gullible dumbass. The dow was up over 300pts prior to the fed announcing it would hike rates. Within 5 minutes after announcing interest rate hikes, the dow went 300pts in the red (a 600pt swing). This is about the fed trying to cause a recession. Nothing to do with a trade war you idiot.
    You understand that when Trump takes credit for the stock market every time it goes up, he's going to hear about it when it goes down right?

    Although you're a Trumper so you probably agree with Trump that he deserves all the credit when it goes up, but it's everyone else's fault when it goes down.
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  19. #139
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    beats me how the market reacts so violently when anyone with half a brain knew a rate hike was happening, and there still would be rate hikes next year. Were they expect the fed to go full panic mode and cancel all foreseeable rate hikes?
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  20. #140
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    Originally Posted by Jrd86 View Post
    You're such a gullible dumbass. The dow was up over 300pts prior to the fed announcing it would hike rates. Within 5 minutes after announcing interest rate hikes, the dow went 300pts in the red (a 600pt swing). This is about the fed trying to cause a recession. Nothing to do with a trade war you idiot.
    This dumbass has never read a financial article or blog all year. ^^^

    Trade tensions have been the main theme of this market all year long.
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  21. #141
    AAS Free since '93 Jacobcapra's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by NYPat View Post
    So if the stock market was down 275 points today you would have made the same tongue-in-cheek post?..

    And I noticed you didn't answer my questions.

    The fun of the tongue in cheek was that it was in contradiction to what you had said.


    You want an answer to what, why we're having one of the worst decembers? Surely it's Trump's fault, and not an amalgamation of complex factors largely out of his control, like the recovery from the '08 recession lasting too long, feds hiking rates, and other powerful nations' markets also negatively affecting the global market.

    So what’s going on? There’s never any one reason why markets move or investors suddenly become extra fearful or optimistic. What’s happening now is that a confluence of factors are causing anxiety on Wall Street, and it’s starting to look like the post-crisis party might be coming to an end.

    To put it short, we're having a terrible december, which makes complete sense to people who know more about it than you or me.
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  22. #142
    Registered User Jrd86's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by NYPat View Post
    You understand that when Trump takes credit for the stock market every time it goes up, he's going to hear about it when it goes down right?

    Although you're a Trumper so you probably agree with Trump that he deserves all the credit when it goes up, but it's everyone else's fault when it goes down.
    Trump deserves credit for the post election bump we saw in the stockmarket. That is indisputable. And exuberance in the stockmarket did surge primarily because of his pro growth policies.

    Remember the stockmarket is a predictor of future growth. The stockmarket is saying that these rate hikes are going to be bad for the economy. And they're right. That is what has rocked the markets most.

    I'm not proposing the interest rate hikes are bad over the long term. You have to have them to deal with inflation. But it's too much too soon. For the last 10 years we've been mostly at near zero interest rates. These rate hikes will cause a recession. And it wont be pretty.
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  23. #143
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  24. #144
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    Originally Posted by Jrd86 View Post
    Trump deserves credit for the post election bump we saw in the stockmarket. That is indisputable. And exuberance in the stockmarket did surge primarily because of his pro growth policies.

    Remember the stockmarket is a predictor of future growth. The stockmarket is saying that these rate hikes are going to be bad for the economy. And they're right. That is what has rocked the markets most.

    I'm not proposing the interest rate hikes are bad over the long term. You have to have them to deal with inflation. But it's too much too soon. For the last 10 years we've been mostly at near zero interest rates. These rate hikes will cause a recession. And it wont be pretty.
    What happens when there is a recession and the Fed is already at zero or near zero rates?

    We were over 5% at the start of 2008... now we are at 2.25-2.5 and we are past due for another recession...

    I get this is fast, but I really don't know what you are expecting them to do...
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  25. #145
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    Originally Posted by Kane_89 View Post
    This dumbass has never read a financial article or blog all year. ^^^

    Trade tensions have been the main theme of this market all year long.
    First off, LMAO that a dip**** like you has the coconuts to call anyone a dumbass. Secondly, that has been the case for China. Not the US. You are confusing your countries.

    Thirdly, go back and look at every interest rate hike we've had this year and you will find the stockmarket did not like it and reacted negatively to the news. This market has been bearish on interest rate hikes, not a trade war with china. Dumbass.
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  26. #146
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    Originally Posted by Austanian View Post
    What happens when there is a recession and the Fed is already at zero or near zero rates?

    We were over 5% at the start of 2008... now we are at 2.25-2.5 and we are past due for another recession...

    I get this is fast, but I really don't know what you are expecting them to do...
    Get rid of the fed and go back to being a free market capitalist country. The fed causes the boom/bust cycles.

    I know that's not reasonable without a massive massive MASSIVE correction. So it will never happen. But I would say that after nearly 8 years at zero %, we are going too fast too soon.

    I actually think "the sky is falling" peter schiff is right. We are headed towards a very nasty recession. And it will be because the economy is not strong enough for the rapid rate of incline we are seeing from the fed.
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  27. #147
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    Originally Posted by Jrd86 View Post
    First off, LMAO that a dip**** like you has the coconuts to call anyone a dumbass. Secondly, that has been the case for China. Not the US. You are confusing your countries.

    Thirdly, go back and look at every interest rate hike we've had this year and you will find the stockmarket did not like it and reacted negatively to the news. This market has been bearish on interest rate hikes, not a trade war with china. Dumbass.
    I'd bet it shock you to find out that the fed was raising rates the whole time the market shot straight up throughout all of 2017, but as soon as Trump started threatening and blustering about tarrifs the market took a chit and hasnt recovered since.
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  28. #148
    IDDQD Austanian's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Jrd86 View Post
    Get rid of the fed and go back to being a free market capitalist country. The fed causes the boom/bust cycles.
    No it doesn't... There were booms and busts way before the fed was ever dreamed up...

    This doesn't mean that the fed couldn't cause a crash. However, if you study financial history cycles you will see booms and busts continually. The Fed smooths out the highs and lows. There is something to be said about ripping off the bandaid, but increased variability requires increased compensation.

    There are negatives with the Fed, but there also were negatives with the prior systems. There is a reason basically every economy in the world has a Fed reserve system.

    Originally Posted by Kane_89 View Post
    I'd bet it shock you to find out that the fed was raising rates the whole time the market shot straight up throughout all of 2017, but as soon as Trump started threatening and blustering about tarrifs the market took a chit and hasnt recovered since.
    Come on son... I know you dislike Trump, but to ignore everything that is going on to come to the conclusion that this is a result of "trade war" is just sticking your head up your ass. The tarrifs would slow down the market sure, but pretending all time highs were just going to continue for ever is going full retard.
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  29. #149
    AAS Free since '93 Jacobcapra's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Kane_89 View Post
    I'd bet it shock you to find out that the fed was raising rates the whole time the market shot straight up throughout all of 2017, but as soon as Trump started threatening and blustering about tarrifs the market took a chit and hasnt recovered since.

    The fed raised the rates in 2017 because the economy was chugging along. The S&P gained 19% in 2017. Meanwhile 2018 has been extremely volatile and nothing like 2017, yet the fed still went with the 3 rate hikes that were planned the year before... AND another unplanned one.


    And if you look at market performance following the tarrifs, the best part of the year was without a doubt the several months following their implementation. We were at break even on the year in July when the tariffs hit, and gained nearly 9% in three months after they went into effect.

    On the other hand, there has been immediate and overwhelmingly negative responses to 3 of the 4 rate hikes this year

    9/26 rate hike, -7% in the two weeks following

    11/8 rate hike, -6% in the two weeks following

    12/19 rate hike, -1.5% in less than a day so far



    So what evidence do you have that it is a result of tariffs, and not undue and and unplanned rate hikes? And can you explain the reason for applying a rate hike in december, after the market had lost 13% since october? Aren't rate hikes supposed to counter economic growth the keep inflation low?
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  30. #150
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    Originally Posted by Jacobcapra View Post
    The fed raised the rates in 2017 because the economy was chugging along. The S&P gained 19% in 2017. Meanwhile 2018 has been extremely volatile and nothing like 2017, yet the fed still went with the 3 rate hikes that were planned the year before... AND another unplanned one.


    And if you look at market performance following the tarrifs, the best part of the year was without a doubt the several months following their implementation. We were at break even on the year in July when the tariffs hit, and gained nearly 9% in three months after they went into effect.

    On the other hand, there has been immediate and overwhelmingly negative responses to 3 of the 4 rate hikes this year

    9/26 rate hike, -7% in the two weeks following

    11/8 rate hike, -6% in the two weeks following

    12/19 rate hike, -1.5% in less than a day so far



    So what evidence do you have that it is a result of tariffs, and not undue and and unplanned rate hikes? And can you explain the reason for applying a rate hike in december, after the market had lost 13% since october? Aren't rate hikes supposed to counter economic growth the keep inflation low?
    Why would the fed stop hiking rates after a little bit of stock market volatility? They have hundreds of indicators and metrics that they look at before they make decisions.
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