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  1. #8581
    Registered User ghostfacedup's Avatar
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    No matter how you slice it, this was crypto's big chance to prove itself. Imagine if it was the asset that actually went up during this chitshow..it would cause a GIANT bullrun. Instead, we get this...floundering. This thing is over for now. Maybe hold for 10-20 yrs for another spark, but medium term we dead.
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  2. #8582
    Registered User BDSMBBW's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by ghostfacedup View Post
    No matter how you slice it, this was crypto's big chance to prove itself. Imagine if it was the asset that actually went up during this chitshow..it would cause a GIANT bullrun. Instead, we get this...floundering. This thing is over for now. Maybe hold for 10-20 yrs for another spark, but medium term we dead.
    Interesting point. Whether the time range happens to be 10-20 years or 1-5 years nobody knows man.

    I think maybe quiet sideways for a bit...

    But few things to note-

    Most "normal" people will be afraid to buy having been burnt so many times in the 2019 and 2020 at 10k btc levels. During the recent crash people who were buying the top in feb at 10k at maximum greed, they got rekt losing more than 50% RN.


    The whale named joe twitter mentioned in one of his older posts that 25k BTCUSDLONGS on finex could possibly be taken out before the next run starts..

    So maybe btc is headed further down...who knows where btc might bottom..just dca and hodl at these levels buy small amounts once in a while at 5k,4k and 2k if it ever gets there etc..- worst case scenario you lose money buying btc. Better than gambling on ****coins and see it dump like 98%.
    Last edited by BDSMBBW; 03-12-2020 at 11:31 PM.
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  3. #8583
    Registered User Mogambo's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by BDSMBBW View Post
    Interesting point. Whether the time range happens to be 10-20 years or 1-5 years nobody knows man.

    I think maybe quiet sideways for a bit...

    But few things to note-

    Most "normal" people will be afraid to buy having been burnt so many times in the 2019 and 2020 at 10k btc levels. During the recent crash people who were buying the top in feb at 10k at maximum greed, they got rekt losing more than 50% RN.


    The whale named joe twitter mentioned in one of his older posts that 25k BTCUSDLONGS on finex could possibly be taken out before the next run starts..

    So maybe btc is headed further down...who knows where btc might bottom..just dca and hodl at these levels buy small amounts once in a while at 5k,4k and 2k if it ever gets there etc..- worst case scenario you lose money buying btc. Better than gambling on ****coins and see it dump like 98%.
    Trying to avoid the trollish crypto haters ITT the past couple days. You've got more patience than I do.

    Wanted to point out something about timeline that you bring up: When **** hit the fan in '08 gold took a beating like the markets did. It then went on a tear for several years starting in '09.

    So depending on whether or not you see BTC as a store of value, things are playing out according to past performances.

    Volatility is good. This is what you should want if you prepare the right way. The only people crying right now, crypto/stocks/whatever, are those that want easy monies. Buy small cap coin, forget about it, check back 6 months later and hasn't mooned....'crypto sucks.'

    If you buy cryptos or stocks and don't understand the importance of positions and many other factors than yes, when you're forced to sell after a crash cause you cannot take the hit, you're going to be emotional.
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  4. #8584
    Registered User BDSMBBW's Avatar
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    Volatality is good - but not these kind of movements with price chopping 10-15% in a single minute candle is not worth the risk of trading.



    I have no clue how/which direction price is gonna move atm. So i aint trading this. Maybe there's a chance the weekly closes above the 200 SMA who knows!

    If you buy cryptos or stocks and don't understand the importance of positions and many other factors than yes, when you're forced to sell after a crash cause you cannot take the hit, you're going to be emotional.
    I agree with you on this - Anyone hoping to get rich quick will most likely lose money. Of course you can get lucky and catch a bull run - But in most cases i think it requires skill to get rich.

    When **** hit the fan in '08 gold took a beating like the markets did. It then went on a tear for several years starting in '09. So depending on whether or not you see BTC as a store of value, things are playing out according to past performances.
    Idk man..BTC has been correlated with spx500 movement for a couple years now. Please let this be the year it moves in different directions!

    God knows when it will pump back to 10k again, But some nice sideways here giving us time to accumulate slowly as we dca would be great.
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  5. #8585
    Has been 'there'... Grinners's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by iifymbro View Post
    it's over


    BTC is a massively risk-on "asset" as proven with this action. It's not a store of value, it's not uncorrelated, it isn't some kind of save haven where you can hide during turmoil.

    It's just magic internet money. A fair weather plaything for people with some cash burning a hole in their pocket.
    This is what capitulation looks like, both in price and sentiment.

    It blows my mind that people didn't expect an initial fall in price in a deleveraging/liquidating environment. Do you realise the gold price declined 20% on the day Lehman went under? In literally the worst financial crisis in almost a century, the price of gold fell from $1,000 to $683.



    Margin calls/debts collapsing/un-leveraging results in a scarcity of dollars (which those debts are denominated in), and therefore an increase in the value of dollars. What happens from here (and the global central bank/government response) is literally what Bitcoin is made for: 'The Times 3 January 2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks'.


    To each their own, and I think this could go either way from here (with the unknowns of COVID-19), but I think if this approaches $4,000 or below again, I think that is an amazing entry point.
    Last edited by Grinners; 03-13-2020 at 03:04 AM.
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  6. #8586
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    Originally Posted by Grinners View Post
    This is what capitulation looks like, both in price and sentiment.

    It blows my mind that people didn't expect an initial fall in price in a deleveraging/liquidating environment. Do you realise the gold price declined 20% on the day Lehman went under? In literally the worst financial crisis in almost a century, the price of gold fell from $1,000 to $683.

    Margin calls/debts collapsing/un-leveraging results in a scarcity of dollars (which those debts are denominated in), and therefore an increase in the value of dollars. What happens from here (and the global central bank/government response) is literally what Bitcoin is made for: 'The Times 3 January 2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks'.
    The parts in bold are very good. I am saddened that I did not think of this on my own.

    Would rep but you are always on spread.
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  7. #8587
    Lord of the Brocean broseidon's Avatar
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    A lot of people saying bitcoin has failed because it is tanking right now in a time when it was supposed to do what it was at least partially created for. It hasn't been long enough to say yet. If it fails to do anything great in the next 12 months then sure we can say it has failed. But right now people are acting on pure panic and emotion and are being far from logical. That combined with the massive leverage squeeze that is going on right now is creating insane results. It is very likely miners and other powerful whales are just taking advantage and making literally insane profits on leverage, more than ever. Really no way to judge if it has failed or not.
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  8. #8588
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    Originally Posted by Grinners View Post
    This is what capitulation looks like, both in price and sentiment.

    It blows my mind that people didn't expect an initial fall in price in a deleveraging/liquidating environment. Do you realise the gold price declined 20% on the day Lehman went under? In literally the worst financial crisis in almost a century, the price of gold fell from $1,000 to $683.



    Margin calls/debts collapsing/un-leveraging results in a scarcity of dollars (which those debts are denominated in), and therefore an increase in the value of dollars. What happens from here (and the global central bank/government response) is literally what Bitcoin is made for: 'The Times 3 January 2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks'.


    To each their own, and I think this could go either way from here (with the unknowns of COVID-19), but I think if this approaches $4,000 or below again, I think that is an amazing entry point.
    Not capitulation just pointing out that the narrative bitcoin has been running on for years is dead af. It's gunna have to find something else to cling onto. Can still pump and be okay and so on, but the whole uncorrelated safe haven etc etc thing is bullchit. It's a risk-on asset.
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  9. #8589
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    Really when you strip it all down, the ultimate store of value is protection, food, and shelter.
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  10. #8590
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    Its ok guys, BTC dumped only 52%, but it has gained 55%~!!! Bull market confirmed

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  11. #8591
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    Originally Posted by BDSMBBW View Post
    Its ok guys, BTC dumped only 52%, but it has gained 55%~!!! Bull market confirmed

    BTC continues to drop, anyone else thinking about buying low?

    Crypto too Risky?
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  12. #8592
    Registered User nosirrahx's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by bangwhosnext View Post
    BTC continues to drop, anyone else thinking about buying low?

    Crypto too Risky?
    Might buy a little just a little just for fun. People should look into Palladium, it also dumped cash into stocks today and its price is artificially deflated.
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  13. #8593
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    Originally Posted by savageoldman View Post
    every trade to trade is a taxable event

    dont worry I am in the same boat not sure what I am going to do yet
    but how do they know there was even any trading given wallets are anonymous? sure, I bought $X of BTC, but then after that it was sent to an exchange address. the ATO doesn't who that address belongs to. what happens if I just say that was money sent to a stranger on the internet for a private purchase? or that some miscer was giving me bodybuilding tips, and I was paying for it in BTC? obv the more money involved the more they're going to dig, just can't see how they're going to be able to chase up people with <$50k involved. especially given online purchases are made with BTC/crypto, I don't see how they can come after me just because I have stockpiled various online currencies in case I wish to make purchases? (obv I know next to nothing about all of this, but maybe they're just after the full time traders rather than hodlers?)
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  14. #8594
    Alfalfa male bangwhosnext's Avatar
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    Market is up 14% in the last 24hrs... is it on the way back up?

    Buy now or hold?
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  15. #8595
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    I´m gonna wait at least to next week before I buy anything. This might be a dead cat bounce, but we will see.
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  16. #8596
    I ain't no bitch lowstrife's Avatar
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    Couple things.

    1) bitmex ceased to be a fully functioning exchange for about 18 hours, and got completely ****ed for a couple hours at the bottom. I believe they were suffering from a cascading margin call that lasted about 18 hours. One after another after another after another, and the liquidation engine was continuing the dump. Within a few minutes of them halting trading, the market bounced 50%. I'm of the opinion that they hit the kill switch on the exchange to act as a circuit breaker to stop the bleeding as it had passed the point of any rationality. They claim it was a "database issue" or something and was a trading engine problem.
    https://twitter.com/BitMEXdotcom/sta...31846611488768

    2)There was only 18 million left in the entire orderbook with, my guess, at this time 200-300m still in the liquidation engine:
    https://twitter.com/lowstrife/status...83621816889345

    3) The insurance fund actually gained money on the second day. +3000btc. It's my belief that they took over manual control of the liquidation engine in the aftermath to profit more from it, but I have no proof of this other than a-typical behavior I saw from it.

    4) If THIS was the straw that finally broke the camels back after 3 years of ****ery and rejected orders, I'm not sorry. You have nobody to blame but yourself. The writing has been on the wall for years that they have no interest in actually providing a stable and fully functioning platform. And it would not surprise me if they profit from the lag in some way (golden API keys, frontrunning, forcing people to use market orders\liquidations).

    5) To me this is a classic panic\capitulation bottom. The past 36 hours has been ****ing insane. We blew out who knows how many retail traders and market making desks. Liquidity in the options market completely evaporated.

    6) This is just one in a long line of days over the last 7 years that were similarly crazy. I'd say this was among the most catastrophic, but it was not the first. Read this tweet thread here:
    https://twitter.com/lowstrife/status...13319016288256

    And to close, I'm just going to leave this here. I think 2022 or 2023 will be good years.

    Last edited by lowstrife; 03-14-2020 at 05:32 AM.
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  17. #8597
    Maximum Effort gixxer0.6g's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by lowstrife View Post
    Couple things.

    1) bitmex ceased to be a fully functioning exchange for about 18 hours, and got completely ****ed for a couple hours at the bottom. I believe they were suffering from a cascading margin call that lasted about 18 hours. One after another after another after another, and the liquidation engine was continuing the dump. Within a few minutes of them halting trading, the market bounced 50%. I'm of the opinion that they hit the kill switch on the exchange to act as a circuit breaker to stop the bleeding as it had passed the point of any rationality. For some reason they claim it was a "database issue" or something and was a computer glitch.

    2)There was only 18 million in left in the entire orderbook with, my guess, at this time 200-300m still in the liquidation engine:
    https://twitter.com/lowstrife/status...83621816889345

    3) The insurance fund actually gained money on the second day. +3000btc. It's my belief that they took over manual control of the liquidation engine in the aftermath to profit more from it, but I have no proof of this other than a-typical behavior I saw from it.

    4) If THIS was the straw that finally broke the camels back after 3 years of ****ery and rejected orders, I'm not sorry. You have nobody to blame but yourself. The writing has been on the wall for years that they have no interest in actually providing a stable and fully functioning platform. And it would not surprise me if they profit from the lag in some way (golden API keys, frontrunning, forcing people to use market orders\liquidations).

    5) To me this is a classic panic\capitulation bottom. The past 36 hours has been ****ing insane. We blew out who knows how many retail traders and market making desks. The options market completely evaporated.

    6) This is just one in a long line of days over the last 7 years that were similarly crazy. I'd say this was among the most catastrophic, but it was not the first. Read this tweet here:
    https://twitter.com/lowstrife/status...13319016288256

    And to close, I'm just going to leave this here. I think 2022 or 2023 will be good years.


    Great, valuable info lowstrife. Thank you. I'm not going anywhere until we go parabolic again and I leave some bags on the next generation

    Feeling pretty good about my DCAn down from 130 to 108 ETH buys. I'm a buyer anywhere around here.
    Last edited by gixxer0.6g; 03-13-2020 at 06:04 PM.
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  18. #8598
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    Originally Posted by lowstrife View Post
    Couple things.

    1) bitmex ceased to be a fully functioning exchange for about 18 hours, and got completely ****ed for a couple hours at the bottom. I believe they were suffering from a cascading margin call that lasted about 18 hours. One after another after another after another, and the liquidation engine was continuing the dump. Within a few minutes of them halting trading, the market bounced 50%. I'm of the opinion that they hit the kill switch on the exchange to act as a circuit breaker to stop the bleeding as it had passed the point of any rationality. For some reason they claim it was a "database issue" or something and was a computer glitch.

    2)There was only 18 million in left in the entire orderbook with, my guess, at this time 200-300m still in the liquidation engine:
    https://twitter.com/lowstrife/status...83621816889345

    3) The insurance fund actually gained money on the second day. +3000btc. It's my belief that they took over manual control of the liquidation engine in the aftermath to profit more from it, but I have no proof of this other than a-typical behavior I saw from it.

    4) If THIS was the straw that finally broke the camels back after 3 years of ****ery and rejected orders, I'm not sorry. You have nobody to blame but yourself. The writing has been on the wall for years that they have no interest in actually providing a stable and fully functioning platform. And it would not surprise me if they profit from the lag in some way (golden API keys, frontrunning, forcing people to use market orders\liquidations).

    5) To me this is a classic panic\capitulation bottom. The past 36 hours has been ****ing insane. We blew out who knows how many retail traders and market making desks. The options market completely evaporated.

    6) This is just one in a long line of days over the last 7 years that were similarly crazy. I'd say this was among the most catastrophic, but it was not the first. Read this tweet here:
    https://twitter.com/lowstrife/status...13319016288256

    And to close, I'm just going to leave this here. I think 2022 or 2023 will be good years.
    Excellent post bro!

    It's a known fact that bitmex are fraudsters and don't act in its customers best interests. But this space has such low integrity everywhere you look. On Binance you have cz acting holier than thou and will still continue dumping his ****coins(which binance owns) on customers. Justin sun is even worse.

    Deribit and FTX are still growing , upcoming exchanges with not much history. What if they suddenly shut shop? Deribit lost most of its insurance fund during that crash as well. Did deribit also gain btc on the second day similar to bitmex? I hope bitmex gets some serious competition. FTX is owned by alameda right? But alameda is also one of the top traders on bitmex. Unsure what sort of competition is going on there.
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  19. #8599
    I ain't no bitch lowstrife's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by BDSMBBW View Post
    Excellent post bro!

    It's a known fact that bitmex are fraudsters and don't act in its customers best interests. But this space has such low integrity everywhere you look. On Binance you have cz acting holier than thou and will still continue dumping his ****coins(which binance owns) on customers. Justin sun is even worse.

    Deribit and FTX are still growing , upcoming exchanges with not much history. What if they suddenly shut shop? Deribit lost most of its insurance fund during that crash as well. Did deribit also gain btc on the second day similar to bitmex? I hope bitmex gets some serious competition. FTX is owned by alameda right? But alameda is also one of the top traders on bitmex. Unsure what sort of competition is going on there.
    CZ has his own problems, but Justin Sun is one of the most toxic snake oil salesmen in this space. I would automatically get away from anything he touches.

    The current futures platforms I know of are:

    Kraken
    Coinflex
    Deribit
    FTX
    Bybit
    Binance
    Okex

    Sorted roughly in order of overall trustworthyness. They each have their own pros and cons. FTX, Deribit and Bybit have the most "complete" suite of features and overall user experience.

    Deribit's insurance fund got completely wiped out. IIRC 450 --> 50btc. They just added 500btc of company funds to temporarily boost it until it recovers, when they will slowly start withdrawing their injection.

    Yes, FTX is owned and run by Alameda Research. They make their own markets. When you trade any of the MOVE contracts, you are betting against Alameda. If you trade their futures markets, you're probably betting against their market making operations as well. It appears that Alameda is not using those leaderboard accounts on bitmex anymore, as they had zero P&L change over the past 2 days. I would imagine it's just ego\advertising and they've switched to new accounts.
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    Originally Posted by lowstrife View Post
    CZ has his own problems, but Justin Sun is one of the most toxic snake oil salesmen in this space. I would automatically get away from anything he touches.

    The current futures platforms I know of are:

    Kraken
    Coinflex
    Deribit
    FTX
    Bybit
    Binance
    Okex

    Sorted roughly in order of overall trustworthyness. They each have their own pros and cons. FTX, Deribit and Bybit have the most "complete" suite of features and overall user experience.

    Deribit's insurance fund got completely wiped out. IIRC 450 --> 50btc. They just added 500btc of company funds to temporarily boost it until it recovers, when they will slowly start withdrawing their injection.

    Yes, FTX is owned and run by Alameda Research. They make their own markets. When you trade any of the MOVE contracts, you are betting against Alameda. If you trade their futures markets, you're probably betting against their market making operations as well. It appears that Alameda is not using those leaderboard accounts on bitmex anymore, as they had zero P&L change over the past 2 days. I would imagine it's just ego\advertising and they've switched to new accounts.
    Thanks for the list man, very useful!

    In terms of website traffic, It seems ftx is way ahead of deribit atm. FTX has potential to challenge bitmex, I hope they do. My only hope is that both of them don't start working together against retail traders - that would lead to some serious market & price control. Is it possible that alameda has stopped using bitmex completely? I mean they have their own exchange, Arthur won't let his competitors flourish on his own exchange right?
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  21. #8601
    I ain't no bitch lowstrife's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by BDSMBBW View Post
    Thanks for the list man, very useful!

    In terms of website traffic, It seems ftx is way ahead of deribit atm. FTX has potential to challenge bitmex, I hope they do. My only hope is that both of them don't start working together against retail traders - that would lead to some serious market & price control. Is it possible that alameda has stopped using bitmex completely? I mean they have their own exchange, Arthur won't let his competitors flourish on his own exchange right?
    I would bet everything Alameda is still there. If there is money to be made, Sam is there taking it.

    They are probably one of the best prop firms in this space at the moment. Goldman Sachs of Crypto.
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  22. #8602
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    I'm sad this dropped because I lost money, but I'm also happy it happened, because maximalists can take their "store of value" and shove it up their ass.

    Trading Bitcoin is like trading tulips. Confirmed
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    Originally Posted by ghostfacedup View Post
    No matter how you slice it, this was crypto's big chance to prove itself. Imagine if it was the asset that actually went up during this chitshow..it would cause a GIANT bullrun. Instead, we get this...floundering. This thing is over for now. Maybe hold for 10-20 yrs for another spark, but medium term we dead.
    I can't agree with the bold part.

    10-20 years is a hyperbole, but the most important factor is that this virus is a black swan event.

    How or when will the corona virus end? No one knows, it can definitely get worse before it gets better.

    Whenever it gets better, we can resume moon mission.
    A small loan of 1 bitcoin........


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  24. #8604
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    Originally Posted by lordpatrick View Post
    I'm sad this dropped because I lost money, but I'm also happy it happened, because maximalists can take their "store of value" and shove it up their ass.

    Trading Bitcoin is like trading tulips. Confirmed
    Give it a few weeks. They will have a new spin soon. Have seen a few posts around the web about how its still up higher than everything else since inception and its still solving the inflation problem because it just hasnt had enough time to mature yet lmao. In other words "give this scam more time to grow until everyone is in on the scam too"

    I mean they have been saying fiat currency is a scam for years, so i dont think the delusion is going to stop just because of a few bad days.
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  25. #8605
    Registered User Serenadium's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by lordpatrick View Post
    I'm sad this dropped because I lost money, but I'm also happy it happened, because maximalists can take their "store of value" and shove it up their ass.

    Trading Bitcoin is like trading tulips. Confirmed
    I hope you aren't confusing a store of value with an uncorrelated asset.

    Gold (i.e. the store of value) has plummeted like it did in 2008. If you look at Grinners post from a page ago he gives an excellent explanation.

    Just because your ****coins crashed, taking it out on perhaps the only cryptocurrency of real worth won't achieve anything.

    Originally Posted by Parkerscott View Post
    Give it a few weeks. They will have a new spin soon. Have seen a few posts around the web about how its still up higher than everything else since inception and its still solving the inflation problem because it just hasnt had enough time to mature yet lmao. In other words "give this scam more time to grow until everyone is in on the scam too"

    I mean they have been saying fiat currency is a scam for years, so i dont think the delusion is going to stop just because of a few bad days.
    this is a weird post and a low IQ one.
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    Originally Posted by Serenadium View Post
    I hope you aren't confusing a store of value with an uncorrelated asset.

    Gold (i.e. the store of value) has plummeted like it did in 2008. If you look at Grinners post from a page ago he gives an excellent explanation.

    Just because your ****coins crashed, taking it out on perhaps the only cryptocurrency of real worth won't achieve anything.



    this is a weird post and a low IQ one.
    Go on... Give us the new narrative...
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  27. #8607
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    Originally Posted by StevieSparkZ View Post
    I can't agree with the bold part.

    10-20 years is a hyperbole, but the most important factor is that this virus is a black swan event.

    How or when will the corona virus end? No one knows, it can definitely get worse before it gets better.

    Whenever it gets better, we can resume moon mission.
    The mortality of corona virus is here -



    Markets are crashing because of bigger reasons, Corona virus is just one small part of it. The spx500 charts have been looking like they wanted to dump for the last year or so.

    BTC will recover, and will most likely outperform all the ****coins as usual. Despite everything that has happened in alt market its impressive how people still underestimate btc's influence after all these years lmao.
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  28. #8608
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    Originally Posted by Horse86 View Post
    Meh just a softy who got a case of the weak hands

    In this last hour (30 min or so) I’ve recovered 50% of what I’ve lost all day.
    May be it was this guy

    https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitco...fore-crash/amp
    My Reviews:- http://reviews.bodybuilding.com/supplement-reviews/sakmsb
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  29. #8609
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    Originally Posted by Parkerscott View Post
    Go on... Give us the new narrative...
    There's no new narrative. Its still an SOV.

    Is it uncorrelated or lowly correlated? I don't know I haven't looked at the study. Those type of studies dont include Black Swan event outliers anyway.

    What we do need is a new narrative from is all the chitcoins that have:
    - raised tens of millions of dollars (some $1b+)
    - had years to develop
    - havent delivered any sort of product
    - havent delivered any sort of product that works well with their native token (99% of them have chit token economics where the token is not needed)
    - have miracously delivered a product but it hasn't experienced any semblance of usage

    Most chitcoin owners are so deep in to their own 'investments' that they are unable to put down their rose coloured spectacles and become cheerleaders for their chitcoins. The sunk cost fallacy is immense in crypto and many elect to sink with their ship.
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  30. #8610
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    So it looks like gold is about even over the past 30 days, while bitcoin is down roughly 50% over the same period. Go on about store of value.
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