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  1. #1981
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    Originally Posted by sakmsb View Post
    SEC CAN'T delay it further. They have to either Approve or Deny on 27th February 2019.
    market says it'll be denied, although I saw a chart awhile back of gold and it was hammered into the earth's core right up until the ETF approved so who noes, maybe this dumpage is a positive sign
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  2. #1982
    ɿɘƨU bɘɿɘƚƨiǫɘЯ sakmsb's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    Bingo. Although not quite as cataclysmic, I view the forking as negatively as I would view the Bitcoin community trying to alter the 21 Million coin cap. Code was supposed to be law, and Vitalik virtually unilaterally said "For the good of the people, I will overrule the "Code is Law" mantra. Sure, it was benevolent, but a terrible precedent to set.
    Vitalik and the other ETH devs defeated the essence of Blockchain. <- I hope i put that right.
    Last edited by sakmsb; 12-07-2018 at 07:03 PM.
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  3. #1983
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    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    I got into mining around $300 era, after that crash. To me the "bottom" was irrelevant because I was targeting free power in Venezuela and my business plan made sense even without appreciation. That said, I was longing the fundamentals, I personally expected a more "stable" coin in BTC and thought "we will see $1000 again, SOMEDAY". I firmly believe you shouldn't invest in BTC unless you understand either A) Why the Fed is an issue and why bitcoin is sound money, or B) are a seasoned trader. If I go long again here at 3200, and it turns out that we blow past 2900 and hit 1200, I am okay doubling down, itll hurt but ill do it. If we go to $400 as the worst case scenario suggests, I'll triple down. The TA looks decent to go long here, but my underlying motive is the fundamentals, this is KEY in my opinion. Also, Bitcoin and "crypto" are very different things. I am not NEARLY as long on "crypto" as I am on Bitcoin. Even Ethereum is suspect if you really understand what makes Bitcoin valuable (censorship resistance/decentralized control). If you don't know about the DAO hack and what the difference between Ethereum and Ethereum Classic truly is, then don't even try and debate that last point.
    Sounds like a cope. Bitcoin is censored by not being accepted by 99% of businesses as payment, literally its only use case

    Inb4 store of value cope
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  4. #1984
    Aware since 2004 Witrebel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by sakmsb View Post
    Vitalik and the other ETH devsy defeated the essence of Blockchain. <- I hope i put that right.
    Sort of. I think more importantly the fact that Vitalik and the other devs have the centralized ability to alter the ETH blockchain is the issue. Its nothing more than a social contract/incentive structure that stops the same thing from happening in Bitcoin.

    Originally Posted by juvefan View Post
    Sounds like a cope. Bitcoin is censored by not being accepted by 99% of businesses as payment, literally its only use case

    Inb4 store of value cope
    I mean, no? Bitcoin is still an experiment. And yes it is currently "censored" in the sense that it has not achieved widespread adoption. The simple fact it that it really may not be capable of solving the "cup of coffee problem" on chain. I mean why does EVERY SINGLE node/user in the world need to know about your cup of coffee. Until we see good trustless layer 2 solutions, it just won't see adoption the way you think of credit cards and cash. It's a technological limitation. If you go the big blocks route, now you need to centralize the nodes into datacenter grade hardware and infrastructure. This is an open problem without a final solution in place. I disagree that payments is "literally its only use case" as you state.

    Have you seen Venezuala? Do you know where the US is heading? When I first visited, it was an official exchange rate of 11 : 1 Bolvars to USD. Black market they would pay 60 Bolivar for 1 USD. I went back a year later and it doubled. Today? 47,000,000 Bolivar per 1 USD. Thats inflation for ya. Extreme example yes, but do you know how much USD the Federal Reserve printed today? No one really knows. I do know that only 1800 Bitcoin were minted today, and I know that it is unlikely that that fact will change. This to me is a HUGE use case. Bitcoin is sound money, its value is not yet stable, but its money supply is. If Bitcoin absorbed the market cap of gold, thats 7 Trillion USD divided by 21 Million USD, or roughly 333,333 USD per BTC. Even if we only see 1/3 of that market cap, you are looking at a 6 figure valuation. The upside is there for me. I think that someday I'll be buying a house with BTC, not with BTC converted into USD. I don't envision using my Bitcoin wallet to buy a cup of coffee, that will be another layer or coin. But I want to stress this is an EXPERIMENT. I am BETTING on an experiment. I just think its silly to pigeon hole the technology as "digital cash" to be used to go buy a cup of coffee. In reality its a catch 22, if I am right about USD inflation and the issues with the Fed, our typical economy is sort of doomed. So I'll be rich in BTC but if the economy collapses it might night be "lambo time" so much as it may be time to buy some land and try to be self sufficient because the world has bigger problems than internet money.
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    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    Sort of. I think more importantly the fact that Vitalik and the other devs have the centralized ability to alter the ETH blockchain is the issue. Its nothing more than a social contract/incentive structure that stops the same thing from happening in Bitcoin.



    I mean, no? Bitcoin is still an experiment. And yes it is currently "censored" in the sense that it has not achieved widespread adoption. The simple fact it that it really may not be capable of solving the "cup of coffee problem" on chain. I mean why does EVERY SINGLE node/user in the world need to know about your cup of coffee. Until we see good trustless layer 2 solutions, it just won't see adoption the way you think of credit cards and cash. It's a technological limitation. If you go the big blocks route, now you need to centralize the nodes into datacenter grade hardware and infrastructure. This is an open problem without a final solution in place. I disagree that payments is "literally its only use case" as you state.

    Have you seen Venezuala? Do you know where the US is heading? When I first visited, it was an official exchange rate of 11 : 1 Bolvars to USD. Black market they would pay 60 Bolivar for 1 USD. I went back a year later and it doubled. Today? 47,000,000 Bolivar per 1 USD. Thats inflation for ya. Extreme example yes, but do you know how much USD the Federal Reserve printed today? No one really knows. I do know that only 1800 Bitcoin were minted today, and I know that it is unlikely that that fact will change. This to me is a HUGE use case. Bitcoin is sound money, its value is not yet stable, but its money supply is. If Bitcoin absorbed the market cap of gold, thats 7 Trillion USD divided by 21 Million USD, or roughly 333,333 USD per BTC. Even if we only see 1/3 of that market cap, you are looking at a 6 figure valuation. The upside is there for me. I think that someday I'll be buying a house with BTC, not with BTC converted into USD. I don't envision using my Bitcoin wallet to buy a cup of coffee, that will be another layer or coin. But I want to stress this is an EXPERIMENT. I am BETTING on an experiment. I just think its silly to pigeon hole the technology as "digital cash" to be used to go buy a cup of coffee. In reality its a catch 22, if I am right about USD inflation and the issues with the Fed, our typical economy is sort of doomed. So I'll be rich in BTC but if the economy collapses it might night be "lambo time" so much as it may be time to buy some land and try to be self sufficient because the world has bigger problems than internet money.
    I have to ask, and this goes out to anyone who feels that inflation/hyperinflation are around the corner, are you diversifying in your hedges?

    Are you buying assets like land/property with little concern for debt, as that debt will be "essentially worthless"in a decades time?
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  6. #1986
    Aware since 2004 Witrebel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Frank Drebin View Post
    I have to ask, and this goes out to anyone who feels that inflation/hyperinflation are around the corner, are you diversifying in your hedges?

    Are you buying assets like land/property with little concern for debt, as that debt will be "essentially worthless"in a decades time?
    Yep. I am currently heavily researching and working towards multifamily investments. Goal is a Duplex by July 1st, then 10 units total within 3 years, and 250 units within 10 years. Currently taking the class to become an agent. I love the idea of highly leveraged but good cash flowing properties being a hedge against inflation. I am hoping to do the first property with a FHA house hack type loan, and use crypto gains to start buying rehab properties cash and flip them to myself for rental income. If crypto doesn't do what I hope, I would have to go the hard money lender route for the rehabing.
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  7. #1987
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    Feeling bullish today,

    Shorts have reached ATH, longs have hardly moved.

    www.datamish.com

    Shorts going parabolic infact.
    Last edited by johnnycash123; 12-07-2018 at 02:45 PM.
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  8. #1988
    Aware since 2004 Witrebel's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by johnnycash123 View Post
    Feeling bullish today,

    Shorts have reached ATH, longs have hardly moved.

    www.datamish.com

    Shorts going parabolic infact.
    I've seen a ton of this sentiment going around. I'd say its a terrible time to go short, an okay time to make a short term scalp, but not quite the time to go long on a long time frame. I am waiting for confirmation to play a little scalp from like 3400 - 3600/3700. I expect to see it drive down to 3000-3100 from there. Some suspect it will bounce HARD from there. Others basically call for 1200 or as low as 400, hence all the shorts. YMMV
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  9. #1989
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  10. #1990
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    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    Sort of. I think more importantly the fact that Vitalik and the other devs have the centralized ability to alter the ETH blockchain is the issue. Its nothing more than a social contract/incentive structure that stops the same thing from happening in Bitcoin.



    I mean, no? Bitcoin is still an experiment. And yes it is currently "censored" in the sense that it has not achieved widespread adoption. The simple fact it that it really may not be capable of solving the "cup of coffee problem" on chain. I mean why does EVERY SINGLE node/user in the world need to know about your cup of coffee. Until we see good trustless layer 2 solutions, it just won't see adoption the way you think of credit cards and cash. It's a technological limitation. If you go the big blocks route, now you need to centralize the nodes into datacenter grade hardware and infrastructure. This is an open problem without a final solution in place. I disagree that payments is "literally its only use case" as you state.

    Have you seen Venezuala? Do you know where the US is heading? When I first visited, it was an official exchange rate of 11 : 1 Bolvars to USD. Black market they would pay 60 Bolivar for 1 USD. I went back a year later and it doubled. Today? 47,000,000 Bolivar per 1 USD. Thats inflation for ya. Extreme example yes, but do you know how much USD the Federal Reserve printed today? No one really knows. I do know that only 1800 Bitcoin were minted today, and I know that it is unlikely that that fact will change. This to me is a HUGE use case. Bitcoin is sound money, its value is not yet stable, but its money supply is. If Bitcoin absorbed the market cap of gold, thats 7 Trillion USD divided by 21 Million USD, or roughly 333,333 USD per BTC. Even if we only see 1/3 of that market cap, you are looking at a 6 figure valuation. The upside is there for me. I think that someday I'll be buying a house with BTC, not with BTC converted into USD. I don't envision using my Bitcoin wallet to buy a cup of coffee, that will be another layer or coin. But I want to stress this is an EXPERIMENT. I am BETTING on an experiment. I just think its silly to pigeon hole the technology as "digital cash" to be used to go buy a cup of coffee. In reality its a catch 22, if I am right about USD inflation and the issues with the Fed, our typical economy is sort of doomed. So I'll be rich in BTC but if the economy collapses it might night be "lambo time" so much as it may be time to buy some land and try to be self sufficient because the world has bigger problems than internet money.
    First off, technically vitalik and co cannot “alter the blockchain” which is why etc exists, DAO money still stolen. Would be like saying BCH “altered bitcoin”

    Second, take your tin foil hat off and realize the US will not reach the hyperinflation of venezuela in our lifetime
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  11. #1991
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    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    I've seen a ton of this sentiment going around. I'd say its a terrible time to go short, an okay time to make a short term scalp, but not quite the time to go long on a long time frame. I am waiting for confirmation to play a little scalp from like 3400 - 3600/3700. I expect to see it drive down to 3000-3100 from there. Some suspect it will bounce HARD from there. Others basically call for 1200 or as low as 400, hence all the shorts. YMMV
    Agree with all this. I think we will get a bump up before any major downside
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  12. #1992
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    Originally Posted by iifymbro View Post
    Reasonable too imo.
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  13. #1993
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    Originally Posted by juvefan View Post
    First off, technically vitalik and co cannot “alter the blockchain” which is why etc exists, DAO money still stolen. Would be like saying BCH “altered bitcoin”

    Second, take your tin foil hat off and realize the US will not reach the hyperinflation of venezuela in our lifetime
    Yeah that is a fair point from a nuanced technical perspective (regarding ETH). However in simple terms, the ETH community looks to Vitalik and the devs for direction, and so they are a defacto source of centralization. Even if in reality all they can do is fork it away to another version, if all the ICO/ERC20 tokens follow, and if the businesses follow the new fork, who cares if there is still some ETC2.0 coin that is technically still "code is law" version, except no one uses it. You are sort of making my case point to BCH. How many times now has someone tried to fork Bitcoin and scream and shout that BCH is the real Bitcoin. How many times have they succeeded? I was trading real time the night BCH almmmoosssttttt flipped BTC in value for about 5 min, but the BTC whales made quick work of that setup and the rest is history. You can probably make some good gains in ETH and its probably here to stay. I just personally don't like the centralized nature of it.

    And yes, absolutely, we are unlikely to see that level of hyperinflation in our lifetime. But then again just look at purchasing power and inflation of goods and services over the last 40-60 years. Do you REALLY think the USD is sound money? I'm obviously speaking to the extremes of the situation, but to ignore the reality of our economy and society is sort of naive. I mean half the damn country is screaming for socialism, openly.
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    Originally Posted by iifymbro View Post
    Lol that assumes an established market....

    I still don't understand how you feel good about pushing general market trends on a market that is only based on 2 things...
    1. Speculation.
    2. Can I mine the coin for less than I can short it today?

    For a period of time arbitrage was possible under scenario 2. Your only constraint was how much investment capital you had to set up a server farm. My mother lives in Central Washington (Cheapest electricity in the nation) this past year the amount of mining operations in that area has skyrocketed. Pretty amazing actually.

    However, now that people know about it I can assure you that the price of bitcoin will never be substantially above the cost to mine.
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  15. #1995
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    Originally Posted by lordpatrick View Post
    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BT...ctal-of-peace/


    Press play


    Good morning VIETNAM


    But I admit, I ignored it, and bought back at 3700 like johnny cash for a nice short squeeze. It didn't happen. So we both rekt johnny
    I just longed my cash stack so didnt lose too much luckily.
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    Originally Posted by Austanian View Post
    Lol that assumes an established market....
    I didn't realize btc was created in 2017, chit man why did no one tell me?!?!?!
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    Originally Posted by Witrebel View Post
    Yep. I am currently heavily researching and working towards multifamily investments. Goal is a Duplex by July 1st, then 10 units total within 3 years, and 250 units within 10 years. Currently taking the class to become an agent. I love the idea of highly leveraged but good cash flowing properties being a hedge against inflation. I am hoping to do the first property with a FHA house hack type loan, and use crypto gains to start buying rehab properties cash and flip them to myself for rental income. If crypto doesn't do what I hope, I would have to go the hard money lender route for the rehabing.
    good luck, sounds like a reasonable plan even with modest inflation.
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    Originally Posted by iifymbro View Post
    I'm not saying I disagree with this but you have to understand (and I'm sure you do you seem smart from what I see you say.) That this is assuming a market will ever go higher. There is a such thing as a stock going to zero. Some of these coins where people are like LOADING UP OMGZ ITS UNDER $1 !!!!!, AND IT USE TO BE 20$!!!!!!!. Theres still always a chance it literally goes to zero. People are like btc has already stopped 70% on the year how much lower can it possibly go? I'll tell you the answer to that and every single other crypto. They can all go down EXACTLY 100% more. Not a penny less or more.

    Again this isnt my sentiment. Just saying because someone has to at least mention it.
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    Originally Posted by Austanian View Post
    Lol that assumes an established market....

    I still don't understand how you feel good about pushing general market trends on a market that is only based on 2 things...
    1. Speculation.
    2. Can I mine the coin for less than I can short it today?

    For a period of time arbitrage was possible under scenario 2. Your only constraint was how much investment capital you had to set up a server farm. My mother lives in Central Washington (Cheapest electricity in the nation) this past year the amount of mining operations in that area has skyrocketed. Pretty amazing actually.

    However, now that people know about it I can assure you that the price of bitcoin will never be substantially above the cost to mine.
    There are some pretty interesting theories about how Bitcoin will actually normalize the price of electricity to some degree. Back in the OG days when Asics had just started to take off, there was strong speculation Bitmain had convoys of semi trucks with second generation mining gear doing "free" load testing for new hydroelectric dams and any other large scale load bank needs. There was also some good arbitrage between Tether / Non Tether exchanges for awhile. I think in general though those cycles are more about psychology than "established markets", no? Even if its only 10 years old, the people charting and trading actively are still going to overlay the concepts they know, and since they are active participants, they impart a little bit of their bias into the system. At least that's my theory anyways.

    Originally Posted by Frank Drebin View Post
    good luck, sounds like a reasonable plan even with modest inflation.
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    Originally Posted by mrc19888 View Post
    I'm not saying I disagree with this but you have to understand (and I'm sure you do you seem smart from what I see you say.) That this is assuming a market will ever go higher. There is a such thing as a stock going to zero. Some of these coins where people are like LOADING UP OMGZ ITS UNDER $1 !!!!!, AND IT USE TO BE 20$!!!!!!!. Theres still always a chance it literally goes to zero. People are like btc has already stopped 70% on the year how much lower can it possibly go? I'll tell you the answer to that and every single other crypto. They can all go down EXACTLY 100% more. Not a penny less or more.

    Again this isnt my sentiment. Just saying because someone has to at least mention it.
    Very very good point for folks out there who are into the Alt game. Notice this chart was overlayed with Bitcoin pricing. It's a reasonable assumption (in my opinion) that although non zero, the chance of Bitcoin going to ZERO is fairly slim. There is significant infrastructure, community, etc that even at .01 USD, there will be a few knuckleheads out there buying ALL of it up. This is where the bitcoin perma bulls come into play, some people are just super long on the fundamentals are and borderline blind to the price. They think on inter-generational wealth timescales. E.g. "Even if bitcoin never goes back of $10,000 in my lifetime, at least I'll be setting my kids up for success when it goes to $1,000,000 in 100 years" This is VERY different than the altcoin market where everyone and there brother is trying to make the next hot coin and capture some of the short term gains. There are obviously a few teams out there with novel ideas trying to improve the space. But BTC having a future is not the same thing as Ripple having a future is not the same thing as Dentacoin having a future
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    Originally Posted by mrc19888 View Post
    I'm not saying I disagree with this but you have to understand (and I'm sure you do you seem smart from what I see you say.) That this is assuming a market will ever go higher. There is a such thing as a stock going to zero. Some of these coins where people are like LOADING UP OMGZ ITS UNDER $1 !!!!!, AND IT USE TO BE 20$!!!!!!!. Theres still always a chance it literally goes to zero. People are like btc has already stopped 70% on the year how much lower can it possibly go? I'll tell you the answer to that and every single other crypto. They can all go down EXACTLY 100% more. Not a penny less or more.

    Again this isnt my sentiment. Just saying because someone has to at least mention it.
    Anything I post ITT just assume I'm referring to BTC unless otherwise stated.

    You can go back and look at the top part of coinmarketcap list as many years into the past as you want/can and BTC is the one that is always there.


    That chart is mostly just for the lol's although there's a element of truth to it. Everyone focuses on the emotions of a bull run but there's the same thing in reverse that happens in bear markets too. You don't want to be in the crew that's getting euphoric.
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    Originally Posted by sakmsb View Post
    https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles...february-2019/


    U.S. SEC Delays Decision on VanEck's Bitcoin ETF Until February 2019
    Oh that sucks, well I guess that’s why the market crashed then.
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    Originally Posted by iifymbro View Post
    I didn't realize btc was created in 2017, chit man why did no one tell me?!?!?!
    Come on mane... You seem to know your chit.

    Bitcoin was started in 2009, but was basically worthless for those first few years. We will call it Feb 2011 where it crossed "penny stocks" line.

    Then we have a period where it jumped back and forth between 300-800... Then we have a greed cycle that was all about people convincing people that if they invested the moon would be named after them too.


    However, that Futures market changed EVERYTHING. If I can sell the bitcoin now for 20,000, but it only costs 3500 to mine it... What should I do?

    Short as many coins as I can mine before the futures contract is up. Then I am guaranteed a return. Eventually people did the math. Found the cheapest places to mine, with an acceptable power supply, and infrastructure.

    With that in place. I can now assure you BTC will NEVER cost more than (Cost to mine+acceptable ROI margin). The wild card is that some areas have electricity that is as cheap as 600 per bitcoin, but they don't have the infrastructure to handle server farms.

    This effectively puts an absolute ceiling on the price of BTC. There is a short term ceiling (Cost to mine in low investment area) and a long term cap. The long term cap is much lower, because I COULD go to that 600 per coin place pay to upgrade infrastructure and then arbitrage from there. However the cost of investment is very high for that so I would need to be convinced BTC is long term sustainable with a high ROI.

    Beyond that we still have the critical failing of crypto and that is that people are not using it to use as a currency. When 90% of the market is speculation you are gonna have a bad day when they realize the moon is not going to be named after them.
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    Originally Posted by Austanian View Post
    Come on mane... You seem to know your chit.

    Bitcoin was started in 2009, but was basically worthless for those first few years. We will call it Feb 2011 where it crossed "penny stocks" line.

    Then we have a period where it jumped back and forth between 300-800... Then we have a greed cycle that was all about people convincing people that if they invested the moon would be named after them too.


    However, that Futures market changed EVERYTHING. If I can sell the bitcoin now for 20,000, but it only costs 3500 to mine it... What should I do?

    Short as many coins as I can mine before the futures contract is up. Then I am guaranteed a return. Eventually people did the math. Found the cheapest places to mine, with an acceptable power supply, and infrastructure.

    With that in place. I can now assure you BTC will NEVER cost more than (Cost to mine+acceptable ROI margin). The wild card is that some areas have electricity that is as cheap as 600 per bitcoin, but they don't have the infrastructure to handle server farms.

    This effectively puts an absolute ceiling on the price of BTC. There is a short term ceiling (Cost to mine in low investment area) and a long term cap. The long term cap is much lower, because I COULD go to that 600 per coin place pay to upgrade infrastructure and then arbitrage from there. However the cost of investment is very high for that so I would need to be convinced BTC is long term sustainable with a high ROI.

    Beyond that we still have the critical failing of crypto and that is that people are not using it to use as a currency. When 90% of the market is speculation you are gonna have a bad day when they realize the moon is not going to be named after them.
    How do you reconcile the halvening coming in 2020 and the mining difficulty adjustments with all of this?

    As well as the idea that shorting becomes not that great profit at a certain point vs longing, and that this market is 90% manipulation with the goal of making fat stacks of cash.
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    Originally Posted by iifymbro View Post
    How do you reconcile the halvening coming in 2020 and the mining difficulty adjustments with all of this?

    As well as the idea that shorting becomes not that great profit at a certain point vs longing, and that this market is 90% manipulation with the goal of making fat stacks of cash.
    The halvening is brilliant, lol.
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    Originally Posted by iifymbro View Post

    Lol. The bulltard scenario has way too many fundamental flaws if you actually take time to put down the emotional bias and see things from a level headed perspective.


    - Nobody cares about the 'tech.' Every one of these HODL'ers coping behind the guise of 'b-b-but, future use case, adoption! Sovereign wealth!' could care less about any of that. They're just looking for the price to rise just enough so they'll dump it on the next uninformed individual to put a downpayment on that new M3. BTC has turned into the exact thing Satoshi didn't want it to be: a speculative investment vs. an actual, used cyber currency for day to day needs (again, good luck with that because of the outrageous transfer fees).

    - Market cap is 90 percent chit coins. See initial point. Nobody is using Monero, Tezos, Lisk, Golem, or Goy coins. All simply cash grabs built by cash hungry defunct CEO's of other small failed ventures with sketchy-at-best whitepapers and application. Fkn' lol if anyone thinks chit like Mona, Maid, or Sia actually have any real world usage.


    - BTC and the crypto space need aforementioned chitcoins to succeed. Marketcap defines liquidity. Once majority of these exit scams leave the arena, the minority that remain will incur the damages. Market cap shrinks ---> zero market luquidity --> good luck with that. Just imagine the NYSE and NASDAQ only having 15-20 actively trading stocks. Just brutal.

    - Government regulation. ICO's were the oil that kept the cryptoscam wheels chugging throughout the years. Tendies and 19 year old slavicbrahs creating chitclones for $50 dollars then raising 50 mill in an ICO prepping for 1,000% gainz after they hit exchanges are all but a thing of the past. The swamp is draining.


    I'll say good luck to anyone that actually holds that small sliver of hope of some euphoric rise back to glory.

    But the further she drops, the more resistance points she'll have to battle through. Not just price resistance but psychological resistance from the countless incels that lost their 401k banking on woo woo from jsnip's crypto fortune tellers. A lot more lost then gained. And I assure you they won't be back to help push prices upwards.
    It's a lot easier for btc to recover from 250 to 1k than it is for it to go from 1.5k to 20k. Not everyone is in that tax bracket.
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    Originally Posted by iifymbro View Post
    How do you reconcile the halvening coming in 2020 and the mining difficulty adjustments with all of this?

    As well as the idea that shorting becomes not that great profit at a certain point vs longing, and that this market is 90% manipulation with the goal of making fat stacks of cash.
    As the coins become more difficult to mine the "cost to mine" would go up. SO the formula for price would still BE Cost to mine plus acceptable ROI.

    "Acceptable ROI" would vary per person...

    As the number of farmers decreases because of lesser returns the difficulty to mine goes down altering the numbers, but not the equation.

    Bottom line. Why would I NOT sell a futures contract for 2000 if I can mine that coin for 1500 before it is due?

    Yes there is manipulation... However, I already sold the contract. I can't lose at that point. (Unless I haven't earned back the cost of my server farm)


    Edit: Keep in mind this is the CEILING. Not the floor.

    What happens when Joe TO the MOON Smith realizes he isn't getting his Lambo, but needs a new car? There are enough believers to hold a price some where. However, I don't know where that is. Most people bought the coins though to get rich... That is not a good base to pray on.
    Last edited by Austanian; 12-07-2018 at 04:56 PM.
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    Originally Posted by Austanian View Post
    As the coins become more difficult to mine the "cost to mine" would go up. SO the formula for price would still BE Cost to mine plus acceptable ROI.

    "Acceptable ROI" would vary per person...

    As the number of farmers decreases because of lesser returns the difficulty to mine goes down altering the numbers, but not the equation.

    Bottom line. Why would I NOT sell a futures contract for 2000 if I can mine that coin for 1500 before it is due?

    Yes there is manipulation... However, I already sold the contract. I can't lose at that point. (Unless I haven't earned back the cost of my server farm)
    I mean, your average CME futures trader isn't mining BTC... neither are the ones that'll be hopping on the nasdaq futures cawk once they drop. Plus most of the volume isn't in those futures anyway, at least not yet.

    I'd say bitmex is the worst offender in this bear in terms of non-physical short traders going ham on btc's angus. And eventually shorting becomes not particularly profitable vs pumping it long.

    Never forget how easily manipulated this unregulated low liquidity market is right now....you think that's air you're breathing? there is no spoon.
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    Originally Posted by Austanian View Post
    Come on mane... You seem to know your chit.

    Bitcoin was started in 2009, but was basically worthless for those first few years. We will call it Feb 2011 where it crossed "penny stocks" line.

    Then we have a period where it jumped back and forth between 300-800... Then we have a greed cycle that was all about people convincing people that if they invested the moon would be named after them too.


    However, that Futures market changed EVERYTHING. If I can sell the bitcoin now for 20,000, but it only costs 3500 to mine it... What should I do?

    Short as many coins as I can mine before the futures contract is up. Then I am guaranteed a return. Eventually people did the math. Found the cheapest places to mine, with an acceptable power supply, and infrastructure.

    With that in place. I can now assure you BTC will NEVER cost more than (Cost to mine+acceptable ROI margin). The wild card is that some areas have electricity that is as cheap as 600 per bitcoin, but they don't have the infrastructure to handle server farms.

    This effectively puts an absolute ceiling on the price of BTC. There is a short term ceiling (Cost to mine in low investment area) and a long term cap. The long term cap is much lower, because I COULD go to that 600 per coin place pay to upgrade infrastructure and then arbitrage from there. However the cost of investment is very high for that so I would need to be convinced BTC is long term sustainable with a high ROI.

    Beyond that we still have the critical failing of crypto and that is that people are not using it to use as a currency. When 90% of the market is speculation you are gonna have a bad day when they realize the moon is not going to be named after them.
    You raise some interesting points, definitely something to consider seriously and add to my long term outlook on Bitcoin. The first thing that jumps out at me when you put it like that is that it sounds like you are assuming that the mining supply is the only supply and that demand is going to more or less equal supply at all times. So your saying that the cost of mining a coin will set the price of all coins. In reality there are only 1800 coins per day, and then 900, and so on and so on. So they can only set the price if the demand is 1800 coins per day, etc. If there is demand for more coins than miners can mine, then the people holding the coins set the value. I get your logic but I think the daily volume shows this to be a small component. Granted lots of that volume is traders, whales etc. But if we had a real metric of the volume from ACTUAL usage, e.g. transactions in the real world, then we could start to see how much your scenario is going to dominate the price.
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