★Early bird fantasy football discussion 2018 ★

[bullybreed]

You're not worried about a Watson regression?

I know I usually end up in at least one misc league with other people but I'm liking guys like Rivers/Ryan so far this year at their price points. Also Wentz if he can get healthy

fading Watson/Jimmy G

Why would I be worried about a Watson regression? He's 22 years old and they are building an offense around him. He's got nowhere to go but up.

[Jack582]

No fournette on top 12? Pretty sure he was more consistent than Hunt, and he was injured and missed out on 2 games.

He also performed nicely in the playoffs

[yuja]

Cowboys entire offense minus Zeke is basically undraftable IMO. I think Dak will have a better football season, but will not translate to fantasy. Doubt any WR breaks 700yds or 6TDs.

OK undraftable is a stretch, but still..

Ah yeah, don't really want Dak on my teams either this year.

Why are you fading on Watson and Jimmy G?



Are the Cowboys even going to be good this year? I haven't paid attention to what they did this off season and seeing regression from Dak last year makes me think he'll be the same this year.

Mostly their price tags vs expected production

Watson is being valued as like the QB3 or Q4 right now behind only Rodgers/Wilson. I think he regresses a bit and doesn't go back to just exploding the NFL like he did last season. And even if he does, you're already paying that price for him right now.

Beast and I discussed Jimmy on page 1 of this thread, he's more of a 14-16 point guy with some upside but his price tag is too steep atm. Sure the 49ers offense is better with him but his top WR is still Goodwin lol


Are the Cowboys ever good? l o l. On the real though I think Elliott coming back and actually playing a whole season will be good for them. Still probably end up like 8-8 though

Why would I be worried about a Watson regression? He's 22 years old and they are building an offense around him. He's got nowhere to go but up.

Drafting him as QB4 based on a sample size of 5 games? I think he makes the Houston offense exciting to watch and is a good/great player but you're fooling yourself if you think he can sustain what he did in those 5 games over a full season. (5 game sample size extrapolated to a 16 game season would be 4.7k passing yards, 700 rush yards, and 60 tds

No fournette on top 12? Pretty sure he was more consistent than Hunt, and he was injured and missed out on 2 games

injury concerns, low ypc, less catches than Hunt

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

Why are you fading on Watson and Jimmy G?



Are the Cowboys even going to be good this year? I haven't paid attention to what they did this off season and seeing regression from Dak last year makes me think he'll be the same this year.

First quote, I'm with Yuja as I think Watson will come back to earth. His run last year was insane. Jimmy G will be a great real game QB, but I don't see it translating over to fantasy.

As far as the cowboys go, their defense is young and talented. It will improve. With the O-line healthy, and Zeke good to go the offense shouldn't skip a beat. Witten wasn't a big contributor anymore, and Dez was pedestrian at best the past two years. No reason to think they can't have success next year as long as they let that offense run through Zeke, and the defense lives up to the potential.

[bullybreed]

Ah yeah, don't really want Dak on my teams either this year.



Mostly their price tags vs expected production

Watson is being valued as like the QB3 or Q4 right now behind only Rodgers/Wilson. I think he regresses a bit and doesn't go back to just exploding the NFL like he did last season. And even if he does, you're already paying that price for him right now.

Beast and I discussed Jimmy on page 1 of this thread, he's more of a 14-16 point guy with some upside but his price tag is too steep atm. Sure the 49ers offense is better with him but his top WR is still Goodwin lol


Are the Cowboys ever good? l o l. On the real though I think Elliott coming back and actually playing a whole season will be good for them. Still probably end up like 8-8 though



Drafting him as QB4 based on a sample size of 5 games? I think he makes the Houston offense exciting to watch and is a good/great player but you're fooling yourself if you think he can sustain what he did in those 5 games over a full season. (5 game sample size extrapolated to a 16 game season would be 4.7k passing yards, 700 rush yards, and 60 tds



injury concerns, low ypc, less catches than Hunt

Watson won't sustain that all year long, no. However, he could do it any time any game. He proved it last year. They have been designing their offense all off season around him and he will have a full camp as a starter. I don't see how you can think that makes him a candidate for regression. Based on his crazy 5 games sure, but I think he still finishes a top 5 QB this year.

[yuja]

Watson won't sustain that all year long, no. However, he could do it any time any game. He proved it last year. They have been designing their offense all off season around him and he will have a full camp as a starter. I don't see how you can think that makes him a candidate for regression. Based on his crazy 5 games sure, but I think he still finishes a top 5 QB this year.

That's all I was basing my "regression" comment off of. I think if healthy Watson ends the year somewhere in the top 10 with Hopkins as WR#1 and Fuller somewhere in the top 25.

Again, nothing against him as a QB or your selection of him. I think for fantasy purposes he has one of the highest ceilings (similar to Cam), with a decent floor. Helps to have a guy like Hopkins to throw to too haha

What is everyone's thoughts on Wentz this year? He was an MVP candidate last year before he went down, ranked QB8 right now on Yahoo.

Also if Carr wasn't playing in such a good division I'd like him a bit as a low end QB1 as well. Good weapons and subpar defense = upside. But I'm questionable about his chances of surviving

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

Ugh, when Watson went down my team crumbled to pieces. Lost the Watson/Fuller combo in one blow, with Zeke after that.

About Wentz, he could end up being a steal if he ends up not being able to start the season. No reports yet, but initially thought he could end up missing weeks 1-4. When healthy he will be a great QB for fantasy.

[bullybreed]

That's all I was basing my "regression" comment off of. I think if healthy Watson ends the year somewhere in the top 10 with Hopkins as WR#1 and Fuller somewhere in the top 25.

Again, nothing against him as a QB or your selection of him. I think for fantasy purposes he has one of the highest ceilings (similar to Cam), with a decent floor. Helps to have a guy like Hopkins to throw to too haha

What is everyone's thoughts on Wentz this year? He was an MVP candidate last year before he went down, ranked QB8 right now on Yahoo.

Also if Carr wasn't playing in such a good division I'd like him a bit as a low end QB1 as well. Good weapons and subpar defense = upside. But I'm questionable about his chances of surviving

What QBs do you see in front of Watson if he's healthy all year? Erin, Brady, Wilson, and maybe Wentz for me. I think Watson finished at 4 or 5 this year. Could outplay Wilson too and get to top 3.

[yuja]

What QBs do you see in front of Watson if he's healthy all year? Erin, Brady, Wilson, and maybe Wentz for me. I think Watson finished at 4 or 5 this year. Could outplay Wilson too and get to top 3.

Rodgers, Brady, Wilson, Eli Manning, Blake Bortles, ****n Kaepernick, Jay Cutler, Cleveland QB #6, Hulk Hogan, Watson

the order of the last 7 guys is really up in the air

[bullybreed]

Rodgers, Brady, Wilson, Eli Manning, Blake Bortles, ****n Kaepernick, Jay Cutler, Cleveland QB #6, Hulk Hogan, Watson

the order of the last 7 guys is really up in the air

lol so Watson 4th like I said.

[yuja]

lol so Watson 4th like I said.

I started making a broader list but got bored lol. Somewhere in the top 7 with Brady, Rodgers, Wilson, Newton, Wentz, Brees

I think Cam-like production with a wee bit less rushing and more passing seems about right for a season long projection (cam finished QB2 last year)

No concerns at all about his two torn ACLs?

[bullybreed]

I started making a broader list but got bored lol. Somewhere in the top 7 with Brady, Rodgers, Wilson, Newton, Wentz, Brees

I think Cam-like production with a wee bit less rushing and more passing seems about right for a season long projection (cam finished QB2 last year)

No concerns at all about his two torn ACLs?

Maybe a slight concern, but not enough to sway me from drafting him. Guess I'll see if that bites me in the ass here in a few months.

[dhawkeye1980]

- Cohen has been lining up all over the field in OTAs etc. I actually think he comes out of the backfield less this year and they use him more as a receiver.
- Howard has been working all off season on his receiving.
- Howard will definitely get the early work, but I don't think he'll be coming off the field much this year.
- I heard something early on in Nagy's coaching when he was first starting with the team that their RBs would be used depending on game situation, but I don't know how much merit that will hold.

If you're in a PPR league, obviously Howard isn't at the top of your draft list. But I think he improves in that area this year and I got him in the 3rd round in my first draft this year which I'm okay with. He caught 29 balls last year and the offense hardly threw the ball. For comparison a guy like Hunt who is going in the end of the first round this year, only caught 53 balls. Howard dropped statistically 6 catchable balls last year. If he cleans that up and and now is in an offense that will be passing more, I think he can catch 45-50 balls this year.

- Zeke only caught 32 passes his first season. 26 missing 6 games his 2nd season. At that rate last year for a full 16 games he only ends up with about 35 catches.

Bears probably trying to pull a mccaffrey with cohen this year. He is way valuable in PPR formats id guess.

[sandcar3]

In!

As far as the QB's go I'm not sure what to do. There's really only 5 (Rodgers, Brady, Wilson, Brees, Cam) I feel confident in but I'm not sure any of them will fall far enough that I will be happy drafting them. Maybe wait and draft Rivers late again as I seem to do every year.

[dhawkeye1980]

What QBs do you see in front of Watson if he's healthy all year? Erin, Brady, Wilson, and maybe Wentz for me. I think Watson finished at 4 or 5 this year. Could outplay Wilson too and get to top 3.

I really hate reaching for players coming off an injury like this but id love to get watson or wentz.

What do you guys think about Winston having a bounce back season?

Big dink Tyreek going at the end of 2nd but has an inexperienced QB with mahones anyone hesitant to draft him?

[Murph0408]

What do you guys think about Winston having a bounce back season?

i think now that winston has been around a couple seasons you can form some reasonable expectations on him. and they are;

-a hot mess of a game every couple weeks
-high volume
-even his bad games can be good fantasy games (3 picks, 2 TDs, a million yards = 25-30 points)

reminds me a whole lot of Jay Cutler in chicago, who also put up some very nice fantasy games on days where he stunk in real life. i wouldn't really mind leaning on winston and he does like the bright lights (he had a beast of a game late last year for me in the playoffs on MNF vs atlanta when i needed him most after losing wentz). he's on, or just outside my top 10 i guess.

[yuja]

I really hate reaching for players coming off an injury like this but id love to get watson or wentz.

What do you guys think about Winston having a bounce back season?

Big dink Tyreek going at the end of 2nd but has an inexperienced QB with mahones anyone hesitant to draft him?

Not touching Winston ever..okay maybe not ever. I might be interested in streaming him when my main QB is on a bye and he has a nice matchup but dude is inconsistent as they come

And that's with Mike Evans to throw the ball to too

Always a bit iffy on Tyreek because of his lack of volume and now he's got a new QB (could go either way, less accurate but more throws deep?), and Sammy Watkins to compete with for targets

Wouldn't mind as a WR3/flex

[Tyler2106]

I really hate reaching for players coming off an injury like this but id love to get watson or wentz.

What do you guys think about Winston having a bounce back season?

Big dink Tyreek going at the end of 2nd but has an inexperienced QB with mahones anyone hesitant to draft him?

With the unknown of Mahones, you have to temper your expectations for his WRs. He's got a big arm and a lot of praise from his teammates. I'd imagine boom or bust unless Mahones settles in and plays well.

[weightsb4dates]

Smells like new and exciting hope in here

Edit:. 2017 misc poverty league winner czheckin in

Edit 2:. Other misc league winner, not strong everything***

[Tyler2106]

Smells like new and exciting hope in here

Edit:. 2017 strong everything winner czheckin in

What was your team name?

[yuja]

What was your team name?

could have sworn it was someone else that won...chroneos

[weightsb4dates]

What was your team name?

no not strong everything my mistake what was the other misc league

And it was full time rotters. Strong everything was the main misc league I didn't get in on time for that one <tear emoji>

Edit:. I think the league I won as the misc poverty league, p much haven't logged in much since then either

[Iceman1800]

One of the fantasy analysts is claiming Barclay will be the next Zeke. Strong projection for a kid who never took an nfl snap yet

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

Big dink Tyreek going at the end of 2nd but has an inexperienced QB with mahones anyone hesitant to draft him?

I was just thinking about this last night. It all depends on how Mahomes performs. He has an absolute cannon and can utilize Tyreek's speed. Just a matter of chemistry......and how well Hunt plays. If defense are forced to keep 8 in the box, Tyreek can have a field day on the outside.

[Jayarbie]

I was just thinking about this last night. It all depends on how Mahomes performs. He has an absolute cannon and can utilize Tyreek's speed. Just a matter of chemistry......and how well Hunt plays. If defense are forced to keep 8 in the box, Tyreek can have a field day on the outside.

Reports out of KC is that Mahomes has had great chemistry with Sammy Watkins in OTAs so far. Watkins is definitely a talented player, so if that continues into the preseason and regular season, it will both cut into Tyreek's looks and also make Watkins a great sleeper pick.

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

Reports out of KC is that Mahomes has had great chemistry with Sammy Watkins in OTAs so far. Watkins is definitely a talented player, so if that continues into the preseason and regular season, it will both cut into Tyreek's looks and also make Watkins a great sleeper pick.

I wouldn't hold my breath on this one. Watkins has yet to live up to draft status. Constant disappointment or injury.

That being said, I would still consider him if he falls just because the talent is there. Maybe the reports are right. Really though any new QB/WR combo is a gamble, that includes Hill.

[Tyler2106]

I wouldn't hold my breath on this one. Watkins has yet to live up to draft status. Constant disappointment or injury.

That being said, I would still consider him if he falls just because the talent is there. Maybe the reports are right. Really though any new QB/WR combo is a gamble, that includes Hill.

Watkins can be a great WR, but always gets hurt. He had one 1000 yard season and then hasn't produced since. He tweeted out he's excited to grow with Mahomes so we'll see if that translates to production.

[Tyler2106]

One of the fantasy analysts is claiming Barclay will be the next Zeke. Strong projection for a kid who never took an nfl snap yet

It's easy to claim something about a kid with so much potential. Barclay is on a team that is going to be vastly improved from last season...I mean that's not saying much, but they're going to be a good team overall. They improved the offensive line, OBJ is coming back, Manning is capable of being mediocre enough to win games, and they have a defense that should keep them in games. A lot of things in place for Barclay to perform well.

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

Watkins can be a great WR, but always gets hurt. He had one 1000 yard season and then hasn't produced since. He tweeted out he's excited to grow with Mahomes so we'll see if that translates to production.

Yeah exactly my point. DND for me.

So frustrating. Start him 4 weeks in a row and get 2, 5, 6 points...bench him, and he gets 22 off a 2TD game....start again......single digits.

[bullybreed]

Yeah exactly my point. DND for me.

So frustrating. Start him 4 weeks in a row and get 2, 5, 6 points...bench him, and he gets 22 off a 2TD game....start again......single digits.

He's so volatile. Staying away from him this year. I actually was lucky enough to start him that week he went off last year.