★Early bird fantasy football discussion 2018 ★

[Iceman1800]

stafford is a strong dependable QB but what makes you think he's having basically a career year at those stats? he hit 5k many moons ago but unless they threw calvin johnson in a time machine and brought him back i don't see why he'd suddenly get there again

his last 5 years have been consistently mid/low 4k yards and mid/high 20's TDs. i'm just curious why you think he'd be any different this year.

Vastly improved and healthy offensive line plus the addition of Blount and drafting a stud rb. The defense will actually have to account for a running game and will give Stafford more time to check his receivers

[Iceman1800]

And Golliday is healthy and will catch at least 10 td's

[EBarbz]

stafford is a strong dependable QB but what makes you think he's having basically a career year at those stats? he hit 5k many moons ago but unless they threw calvin johnson in a time machine and brought him back i don't see why he'd suddenly get there again

his last 5 years have been consistently mid/low 4k yards and mid/high 20's TDs. i'm just curious why you think he'd be any different this year.

Agree don't think Stafford will hit that mark, but I would love to be proven wrong

[Tyler2106]

Vastly improved and healthy offensive line plus the addition of Blount and drafting a stud rb. The defense will actually have to account for a running game and will give Stafford more time to check his receivers

I don't think improving the running game translates into more yards and TDs for Stafford. They've been so one dimensional over the last few years that improving the run game will take stress off him to where he doesn't have to throw every play and to where they have a running game to pound the ball in around the goal line. He might have a better season this year, but not to the tune of 5,000 yards and 30 TDs.

[dhawkeye1980]

How did you get DJ in the 5th round? He was #1 overall in every draft last year. Strong potato league. LOL.

He was a keeper since someone picked him up his rookie year and the keepers go up every 2 years. I traded for him last year when he got hurt and i can keep him for a 5th this year and a third next year then he goes back into FA. Not that hard. I said only players DRAFTED in the first 2 rounds cant be kept.

[kids.got.soul]

IN.

Was just wondering when this thread would pop up the other day.

Haven't looked at anything too in depth but a few thoughts.

- Watson and Jimmy G will be over-drafted from an ADP perspective.
- Jordan Howard and Julio are being under-valued (for now).
- You'll probably have to over-pay for McKinnon this year.

[Murph0408]

and Julio are being under-valued (for now).

Julio's ADP in a half-PPR right now is still at or near the top 10. i would not say that's under valued. i would probably pass on him too

[Iceman1800]

Julio's ADP in a half-PPR right now is still at or near the top 10. i would not say that's under valued. i would probably pass on him too

he'd be my choice for wr3 at best. No way I'd draft him before round 6 and he'll obviously be gone by then.

[Tyler2106]

Julio's ADP in a half-PPR right now is still at or near the top 10. i would not say that's under valued. i would probably pass on him too

Julio in the top 10 is a pass for me. Too boom or bust and with the high praise of Ridley from Matt Ryan, I think his production slips out of first round production.

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

he'd be my choice for wr3 at best. No way I'd draft him before round 6 .

Julio....WR3?...... wat...

[kids.got.soul]

Julio's ADP in a half-PPR right now is still at or near the top 10. i would not say that's under valued. i would probably pass on him too

Julio in the top 10 is a pass for me. Too boom or bust and with the high praise of Ridley from Matt Ryan, I think his production slips out of first round production.

I'm seeing him slip closer to near the top of the 2nd round. I think it's crazy he's dropping that low but people are going to overreact to last year because of his TDs. He was efficient everywhere else on the field this past season except in the endzone. He'll be due some positive regression in that regard.

He's still an insane receiver and led the league in yards per route ran for the fourth time in the last 5 seasons.

I won my league with him on my team last year. If I can get him even slightly discounted in any leagues this year, I'll gladly take him. Citing something like the Falcons having a rookie WR from the first round on the team is really misguided.

[Tyler2106]

I'm seeing him slip closer to near the top of the 2nd round. I think it's crazy he's dropping that low but people are going to overreact to last year because of his TDs. He was efficient everywhere else on the field this past season except in the endzone. He'll be due some positive regression in that regard.

He's still an insane receiver and led the league in yards per route ran for the fourth time in the last 5 seasons.

I won my league with him on my team last year. If I can get him even slightly discounted in any leagues this year, I'll gladly take him. Citing something like the Falcons having a rookie WR from the first round on the team is really misguided.

Looks like you read the expert note from Fantasy Pro with that analysis...while it's hard to trust a rookie WR, you still have to consider the fact that he's a talented WR and Ryan has praised him a lot already. Not taking into consideration additions to other parts of the offense is really misguided when valuing players.

Jones in the 2nd round is much more appealing to me. If I can get a solid RB and Jones on the turn, I'm happy.

[kids.got.soul]

Looks like you read the expert note from Fantasy Pro with that analysis...while it's hard to trust a rookie WR, you still have to consider the fact that he's a talented WR and Ryan has praised him a lot already. Not taking into consideration additions to other parts of the offense is really misguided when valuing players.

Jones in the 2nd round is much more appealing to me. If I can get a solid RB and Jones on the turn, I'm happy.

I did see that, but that's also the general consensus on Julio among most "experts" whose opinions I value. He's a dominant receiver and people are pushing his value down based on half-baked conclusions from last season.

I just have a hard time giving that much weight behind this rookie argument you mention. He's a new teammate and the organization wants him to succeed. They're not going to come out and say anything negative, and it never hurts to publicly support a new guy either. People get too caught up in coach-speak when it comes to fantasy. You see it all the time. I'll confidently bet right now that Ridley has almost zero impact on Julio this season.

[dhawkeye1980]

IN.

Was just wondering when this thread would pop up the other day.

Haven't looked at anything too in depth but a few thoughts.

- Watson and Jimmy G will be over-drafted from an ADP perspective.
- Jordan Howard and Julio are being under-valued (for now).
- You'll probably have to over-pay for McKinnon this year.

Mckinnon going in like 3rd round in my mocks. He is a great back but not a 3down one. In PPR maybe but not standard

[ChknFrydMFer]

anyone expecting some regression from Brown/Bell?...feel like Big Ben may start the downhill this year...just my opinion of course

[Tyler2106]

I did see that, but that's also the general consensus on Julio among most "experts" whose opinions I value. He's a dominant receiver and people are pushing his value down based on half-baked conclusions from last season.

I just have a hard time giving that much weight behind this rookie argument you mention. He's a new teammate and the organization wants him to succeed. They're not going to come out and say anything negative, and it never hurts to publicly support a new guy either. People get too caught up in coach-speak when it comes to fantasy. You see it all the time. I'll confidently bet right now that Ridley has almost zero impact on Julio this season.

I understand what you're saying. That's the fun part about fantasy. People value players differently and it either pays off or it doesn't. I'm just arguing that I don't think he's a round 1 pick this season. If someone is high on him scoring more TDs and takes him first round, I'd have no problem with it. I value him more early 2nd round.

Let's not forget that last season without his 38 point game, he was not great and no where near 1st round production. If fact, he'd be more around WR15 without it. For non PPR scoring his weeks went: 6,10,9,3,7,15,7,11,5,7,38,2,9,5,14,8. I understand that a few more TDs sprinkled in and those 9-11 point games start looking much better.

Mediocre last season, injury concerns etc and he's not looking great to me in the first round.

[Tyler2106]

anyone expecting some regression from Brown/Bell?...feel like Big Ben may start the downhill this year...just my opinion of course

I was thinking the same thing when I was looking through the rankings. It's hard to make the argument without anything to back it up other than "feels." Initial thoughts are to avoid them, but I'll have to wait until closer to the season to make that decision or not.

[Murph0408]

anyone expecting some regression from Brown/Bell?...feel like Big Ben may start the downhill this year...just my opinion of course

no. maybe you could argue antonio doesn't have the stranglehold on the top-dog receiver spot he once had, but that's more due to the re-emergence of hopkins and the healthy Odell. big ben probably has a year left in him to be decent enough to feed antonio.

bell i have zero questions about in terms of regression. the only question on bell i have is if i'd take him, zeke, DJ or TG first.

[kids.got.soul]

I understand what you're saying. That's the fun part about fantasy. People value players differently and it either pays off or it doesn't. I'm just arguing that I don't think he's a round 1 pick this season. If someone is high on him scoring more TDs and takes him first round, I'd have no problem with it. I value him more early 2nd round.

Let's not forget that last season without his 38 point game, he was not great and no where near 1st round production. If fact, he'd be more around WR15 without it. For non PPR scoring his weeks went: 6,10,9,3,7,15,7,11,5,7,38,2,9,5,14,8. I understand that a few more TDs sprinkled in and those 9-11 point games start looking much better.

Mediocre last season, injury concerns etc and he's not looking great to me in the first round.

All good m8. That's why I enjoy this thread - Good to get other perspectives.

[bullybreed]

ugh on Nelson, Ajayi, and Reed. Stafford will throw for 5k yards and 30 td's this year

- I didn't draft Nelson until the 11th round. Considering he will be a bye week fill in barring injury I think that's ok. Not to mention Corey Davis in the 8th could be a steal and I won't ever have to even play Nelson.
- Reed when healthy is a top 5 TE. As we all know a weak position, but hence the drafting of Njoku in the 14th round.
- Ajayi I'm iffy on but he could turn out to be a stud especially with Wentz back and a full offseason in the eagles offense under his belt.

[Tyler2106]

- i didn't draft nelson until the 11th round. Considering he will be a bye week fill in barring injury i think that's ok. Not to mention corey davis in the 8th could be a steal and i won't ever have to even play nelson.
- reed when healthy is a top 5 te. As we all know a weak position, but hence the drafting of njoku in the 14th round.
- ajayi i'm iffy on but he could turn out to be a stud especially with wentz back and a full offseason in the eagles offense under his belt.

Reed
Healthy

Pick one lol

[Iceman1800]

Reed
Healthy

Pick one lol

agreed

[bullybreed]

agreed

I agree too, but I waited on TE. Is what it is.

[Murph0408]

at TE i would have no problem just taking delanie walker again and setting it/forgetting it. i know he's a little old now but whatever. you get what you get from him and call it a day. otherwise you're bouncing around between players chasing 7-9 points a week if you're lucky. he's fairly matchup proof, mariota trusts him in the redzone. he looks his way a ton in the RZ and he could've had more scores with a little more luck last year.

maybe late in the draft you take a flier on a guy with potential like njoku above

[dhawkeye1980]

at TE i would have no problem just taking delanie walker again and setting it/forgetting it. i know he's a little old now but whatever. you get what you get from him and call it a day. otherwise you're bouncing around between players chasing 7-9 points a week if you're lucky. he's fairly matchup proof, mariota trusts him in the redzone. he looks his way a ton in the RZ and he could've had more scores with a little more luck last year.

maybe late in the draft you take a flier on a guy with potential like njoku above

I think Burton in chicago as a nice stash TE he did well when ertz was out last year.

[Murph0408]

I think Burton in chicago as a nice stash TE he did well when ertz was out last year.

i'd put him right there with njoku, the Howard kid in tampa, Kittle in SF

[yuja]

yuja, you running the misc league again?

Also, I'm thinking Hopkins > Brown this season. No thanks on Julio in the first round, same with Hunt.

Yeah I'll set it up when we get closer to August

in for another year of crying and bad trades

And Golliday is healthy and will catch at least 10 td's

Strong Lions homer

i'd put him right there with njoku, the Howard kid in tampa, Kittle in SF

TEs-in-platoons crew?

Probably going to stream TEs again this year unless Ertz/Olsen/Kelce falls to an acceptable spot.

I remember trying to pick between RSJ or Burton or Clay or some other nobody week to week and I took RSJ instead of Burton - regretted it 5 minutes into Sunday and lost because of it

[dhawkeye1980]

Yeah I'll set it up when we get closer to August

in for another year of crying and bad trades



Strong Lions homer



TEs-in-platoons crew?

Probably going to stream TEs again this year unless Ertz/Olsen/Kelce falls to an acceptable spot.

I remember trying to pick between RSJ or Burton or Clay or some other nobody week to week and I took RSJ instead of Burton - regretted it 5 minutes into Sunday and lost because of it

I didnt pay much attention to the draft, any good TEs drafted? Also who is taking over for witten in dallas?

[yuja]

I didnt pay much attention to the draft, any good TEs drafted? Also who is taking over for witten in dallas?

Hayden Hurst - Ravens (Ravens took 2 TEs, one in the 2nd Hurst and on in the 3rd Andrews)

Mike Gesicki - Dolphins (looks lost right now, could have Engram upside)

looks like committee at TE in Dallas, would disregard. They did draft Schultz in the 4th though

[reverse79]

ASJ in Jax....a good fit for potato Bortles.


I took Gronk as my second pick last year (had buyers remorse) but he carried me a lot of weeks. Ill consider it again because TEs will drive you crazy for consistent production.


Graham with Rodgers is a no brainer 3rd rd pick, imo