Government shutdown

[Brackneyc]

How long will it last.

[Karl_Hungus]

I can't imagine it would go on for more than a few days. I'm guessing by Monday the shutdown will be over. This isn't something they can really drag out.

[ljimd]

7:30PM. Nobody wants to miss dinner.

[mtpockets]

How long will it last.

Hopefully not long, It's not necessarily the politicians who suffer. Some people really need to get paid.

[acrawlingchaos]

It will not have any significant impact for another 10 days. Will it go on that long? Maybe... but I doubt any longer.

[7Seconds]

Polling has GOP getting the blame over Democrats about 50 to 30. Democrats won't cave as long as those poll numbers hold. GOP has already conceded to extending DACA for a separate immigration fight later this year, and funding CHIP to 2023. Schumer is holding out for a much larger DREAMer amnesty package.

[Mark1T]

Polling has GOP getting the blame over Democrats about 50 to 30. Democrats won't cave as long as those poll numbers hold. GOP has already conceded to extending DACA for a separate immigration fight later this year, and funding CHIP to 2023. Schumer is holding out for a much larger DREAMer amnesty package.

Depends upon which polls and which polls you actually believe and if you actually believe that all polls are accurate no matter which way they lean and if polls make a bit of difference.

[7Seconds]

Depends upon which polls and which polls you actually believe and if you actually believe that all polls are accurate no matter which way they lean and if polls make a bit of difference.

It doesn't really matter which polls I believe, it matters which ones those in Washington believe.

[Karl_Hungus]

Polling has GOP getting the blame over Democrats about 50 to 30. Democrats won't cave as long as those poll numbers hold. GOP has already conceded to extending DACA for a separate immigration fight later this year, and funding CHIP to 2023. Schumer is holding out for a much larger DREAMer amnesty package.

It is more complicated than that. Polls also show that most believe DACA is not sufficient reason for a shutdown, which doesn't bode well for Dems either. Further, Trump was largely elected for his immigration stances, and if he is perceived as caving on this issue, it can also have a devastating impact on him with his base. Polls showing people blame republicans really don't tell you much without considering the broader context. Further, polls are easily manipulated, which I am sure both sides are aware of, so I can't imagine this would be the primary factor guiding their actions.

[wesleysh21]

The shutdown is politically motivated, and the entire setup was geared towards optics.

It will be interesting to see what happens next. I’m pretty sure a big chunk of people want this shutdown to last up until the state of the union address. Without anything else to go by other than the politics and optics that led to the original shutdown, I’m gonna guess they reach a deal the day after the SOTU.

On a side note, Doug Jones of Alabama said he would be his own man in congress and not toe the party line. Its reported that he’s a yes on continuing to fund the government, going against his party.

[ElrondHubbard]

It is more complicated than that. Polls also show that most believe DACA is not sufficient reason for a shutdown, which doesn't bode well for Dems either. Further, Trump was largely elected for his immigration stances, and if he is perceived as caving on this issue, it can also have a devastating impact on him with his base. Polls showing people blame republicans really don't tell you much without considering the broader context. Further, polls are easily manipulated, which I am sure both sides are aware of, so I can't imagine this would be the primary factor guiding their actions.

His base is not big enough to re-elect him anyway. Playing to them will not salvage his presidency.

[Karl_Hungus]

His base is not big enough to re-elect him anyway. Playing to them will not salvage his presidency.

No, but alienating his base certainly can hurt his chances for re-election.

[wesleysh21]

No, but alienating his base certainly can hurt his chances for re-election.

Exactly.

[Plateauplower]

His base is not big enough to re-elect him anyway. Playing to them will not salvage his presidency.

Yea cause he didn’t win last time either right? Despite the “polls” (which had HRC winning by a landslide for the election if you can remember that far back) this shutdown falls directly on the Dems and I think that will be reflected in upcoming elections. Sacrificing American federal benefits, programs, pay, etc in an effort to support ILLEGAL immigrants does not sit well with me. We have a legal way for immigration, so the democrats have decided to withhold rights of law abiding US citizens to in an effort to support criminals....Should play out well if they drag it out.

[Mark1T]

Yea cause he didn’t win last time either right? Despite the “polls” (which had HRC winning by a landslide for the election if you can remember that far back) this shutdown falls directly on the Dems and I think that will be reflected in upcoming elections. Sacrificing American federal benefits, programs, pay, etc in an effort to support ILLEGAL immigrants does not sit well with me. We have a legal way for immigration, so the democrats have decided to withhold rights of law abiding US citizens to in an effort to support criminals....Should play out well if they drag it out.

What Platty said. Polls can be interesting, but only so far. As Platts said above, the polls lost credibility when Trump was elected.

This really told me that the polls that had Hillary ahead by far, were fraudulent, and had the same mission as the fraudulent dossier - that is to falsely - FALSELY influence people using false data.

[crupiea]

If they paid the military and opened the national parks I would be pretty happy if it went on forever. Hopefully it means congress goes home and they quit doing stupid stuff.

[acrawlingchaos]

the only thing it's gonna impact is a ten day delay on the welfare checks we sign for drug addicts in this country !!

Calm down, you'll get your check on time.

His base is not big enough to re-elect him anyway. Playing to them will not salvage his presidency.

If I am to be honest, I am not completely disappointed in Trump's Presidency as his outcomes (not opinions) align with some of my ideals. While I think he does on occasion pander to prejudice, and do not care for some of his many faults, if the Democrats or Libertarians do not produce adequate candidates, Trump will get my vote this time around.

[Plateauplower]

Calm down, you'll get your check on time.

If I am to be honest, I am not completely disappointed in Trump's Presidency as his outcomes (not opinions) align with some of my ideals. While I think he does on occasion pander to prejudice, and do not care for some of his many faults , if the Democrats or Libertarians do not produce adequate candidates, Trump will get my vote this time around.

Lol that could be the understatement of the year. I don’t think he’s stupid enough to act the way he does sometimes, I think he just doesn’t give AF about how he comes across, and he might even “pride himself” in his abrasiveness IDK. The fact is, I’m not his buddy nor do I need to be around him, and so far his presidency has been nothing but positives for me. I think most politicians are vastly out of touch with reality. IMO Politics attracts a special breed of egotistical, and morally corrupt, power hungry individuals, who are also very wealthy, many never needing to earn that wealth on their own, very privileged (Trump included).

[7Seconds]

It is more complicated than that. Polls also show that most believe DACA is not sufficient reason for a shutdown, which doesn't bode well for Dems either. Further, Trump was largely elected for his immigration stances, and if he is perceived as caving on this issue, it can also have a devastating impact on him with his base. Polls showing people blame republicans really don't tell you much without considering the broader context. Further, polls are easily manipulated, which I am sure both sides are aware of, so I can't imagine this would be the primary factor guiding their actions.

Ok, how about hashtags?

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump...ry?id=52487452

Either way I think Democrats are counting on the public blaming Republicans. Their reasoning being 1.government shutdowns have become synonymous with Republican brinksmanship tactics, 2. Republicans do control all of the relevant portions of government, 3. there was a deal in place that got scuttled by Republican leadership and 4. Trump is unpopular and unpopular leaders take blame for problems.

That's not to say that those reasons are necessarily fair or justified, just that those are reasons that much of the general public will use to blame Republicans.

[Jtbny]

Yea cause he didn’t win last time either right? Despite the “polls” (which had HRC winning by a landslide for the election if you can remember that far back) this shutdown falls directly on the Dems and I think that will be reflected in upcoming elections. Sacrificing American federal benefits, programs, pay, etc in an effort to support ILLEGAL immigrants does not sit well with me. We have a legal way for immigration, so the democrats have decided to withhold rights of law abiding US citizens to in an effort to support criminals....Should play out well if they drag it out.

Polls weren't equipped for this type of election. The model was bad. I suspect lessons have been learned and statistics will prevail

[Plateauplower]

Polls weren't equipped for this type of election. The model was bad. I suspect lessons have been learned and statistics will prevail

Yea cause I’m sure they were really concerned about the quality of the results or the methodology needed to get a statistically representative sample. This has been going on for a long time. You tell people the “facts” enough times and some will start to believe them, whether those “facts” are true or not. IOW fake news is very real. Military uses similar tactics in Psy ops, leaflet drops etc.

I don’t think there is a single media source anymore that is fair and balanced. I don’t care, I don’t watch any of it. I’m watching “littlest pet shop” right now and broiling a big ol slab of salmon

[Mark1T]

Some polls are legit. Some aren't. For those that aren't, statistics and legitimate methods are not used.

[Karl_Hungus]

Ok, how about hashtags?

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump...ry?id=52487452

Either way I think Democrats are counting on the public blaming Republicans. Their reasoning being 1.government shutdowns have become synonymous with Republican brinksmanship tactics, 2. Republicans do control all of the relevant portions of government, 3. there was a deal in place that got scuttled by Republican leadership and 4. Trump is unpopular and unpopular leaders take blame for problems.

That's not to say that those reasons are necessarily fair or justified, just that those are reasons that much of the general public will use to blame Republicans.

I'm just not buying it. This hinges on DACA, which is not an issue most people think is worthy of a government shutdown. The deal that got scuttled was completely antithetical to Trump's agenda, and if it were to go through, he would have been completely undermined and republicans would look like idiots. I think you are looking at it too one-dimensionally. Even if republicans do get a greater share of the blame, I'm not convinced that A) it will be borne out over a longer term (because it is DACA), and B) the valence of negative reaction is equivalent between the two sides (because again, it is DACA). In essence, they have to weigh the net utility here, and caving on this issue is likely one that will cause them more harm in the long run.

[bodyhard]

It will last exactly 3 days, no more no less.

[Mark1T]

It will last exactly 3 days, no more no less.

You playin' us, Johnny Bodyhard??

[DuracellBunny]

A shutdown is the political equivalent of a child holding it's breath to get it's own way. If you give in, it will do it every time it wants it's own way; plus sooner or later it has to take a breath.

On a side note, I have heard lots of stuff since Trump took office about how he makes the US look bad on the world stage. This right here, the shutdown, is what makes the US look bad on the world stage. Just as when the reps did it to Obama, it is a really sh!tty way to negotiate and makes the entire political establishment look like a bunch of c*nts.

[Plateauplower]

A shutdown is the political equivalent of a child holding it's breath to get it's own way. If you give in, it will do it every time it wants it's own way; plus sooner or later it has to take a breath.

On a side note, I have heard lots of stuff since Trump took office about how he makes the US look bad on the world stage. This right here, the shutdown, is what makes the US look bad on the world stage. Just as when the reps did it to Obama, it is a really sh!tty way to negotiate and makes the entire political establishment look like a bunch of c*nts

IMO most of them are.

[Bando]

Lol that could be the understatement of the year. I don’t think he’s stupid enough to act the way he does sometimes, I think he just doesn’t give AF about how he comes across, and he might even “pride himself” in his abrasiveness IDK. The fact is, I’m not his buddy nor do I need to be around him, and so far his presidency has been nothing but positives for me.

but ..but... he's such a great dealmaker and negotiator, why do Sailors in submarines in the Persian Gulf need to worry about their spouse at home being able to buy groceries?

Indeed he's been great for ME, sitting at home by a warm fire listening to my favorite music. But it's not just about ME FFS.

[Plateauplower]

but ..but... he's such a great dealmaker and negotiator, why do Sailors in submarines in the Persian Gulf need to worry about their spouse at home being able to buy groceries?

Indeed he's been great for ME, sitting at home by a warm fire listening to my favorite music. But it's not just about ME FFS.

Yea the Democrats really shouldn’t have withheld those funds from the military and the services every other US citizen will miss by being effected for the benefit of illegal immigrants huh? The military is funded until the end of February I believe either way.

[Sweetums6000]

Yea cause he didn’t win last time either right? Despite the “polls” (which had HRC winning by a landslide for the election if you can remember that far back).

I can remember that far back, and the polls did not have Hillary winning in a landslide. The final national polling average had her winning by about 3 points. She won the national vote by about 2 points. That’s pretty damn close.

There were state polls that were off by a lot more, but that happens. The real problem was a lot of people doing bad analysis of the polls. The people who were looking at the polls in a thoughtful rational way spent a lot of time, especially toward the end, warning everyone that Trump had a pretty good chance of winning. The people saying Trump didn’t have a chance didn’t understand the difference between saying something is more likely to happen, and saying that thing will definitely happen.

The polls can’t tell you what is going to happen. They can only help you to determine what is more likely to happen. People don’t realize that a 2 to 1 underdog stills wins a lot of the time (a third of the time, in fact).