**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread- Part -IX-

[Venom08]

GJ JG, but let's be honest. Unless gold breaks out to the upside (it's been consolidating for the past two months) which is 1300+, then it's back down to sub-$1000. Right now, I see 1265 as an important level to break followed by 1288 and then 1300. /GC is currently 1254. Do you plan on selling if support at 1200 gets broken and those upside target numbers have not been tested? I think you should do well to lock in a bit of profit here, there is not enough pessimism in the central banks just yet to have set the stage for a bull market to emerge in the metals market.

[thetrebel]

Lol why you say this?

Sold my FB, profit $12
Need robinhood instant ffs

Lol at bothering to log in to your broker for less than 3 racks

[wil817]

GJ JG, but let's be honest. Unless gold breaks out to the upside (it's been consolidating for the past two months) which is 1300+, then it's back down to sub-$1000. Right now, I see 1265 as an important level to break followed by 1288 and then 1300. /GC is currently 1254. Do you plan on selling if support at 1200 gets broken and those upside target numbers have not been tested? I think you should do well to lock in a bit of profit here, there is not enough pessimism in the central banks just yet to have set the stage for a bull market to emerge in the metals market.

Gold looks like it wants to go higher. It's currently in a volatility squeeze and has upward momentum. I'm long NUGT atm.. and SLV calls. A couple LEAP calls on CLF, DNN and EGO also.

[NattyCory]

Canada announced legalized Marijuana legislation for Spring 2017

Stocks shooting up mad gains brah

[Frontrun33r]

Out of VRX @ 33.75, doubt we'll hear anything before next week, and I'm guessing it'll get a little cheaper before then.

Tempted to get some TWTR before their earnings report...

[mike.hunt]

Out of VRX @ 33.75, doubt we'll hear anything before next week, and I'm guessing it'll get a little cheaper before then.

Tempted to get some TWTR before their earnings report...

TWTR earnings = -$350mil

chit company, chit advertising, chit everything

get FB instead, they know what they're doing over there with advertising, and have positive EPS

[mike.hunt]

Lol at bothering to log in to your broker for less than 3 racks

started at the bottom, still at the bottom

[Gothwaite]

TWTR earnings = -$350mil

chit company, chit advertising, chit everything

get FB instead, they know what they're doing over there with advertising, and have positive EPS

according to yahoo, twitter also has positive EPS and a better p/e than ********

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=twtr+Analyst+Estimates
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=fb+Analyst+Estimates

not that i will buy either

[ctownballer04]

TWTR earnings = -$350mil

chit company, chit advertising, chit everything

get FB instead, they know what they're doing over there with advertising, and have positive EPS

No offense, but you really shouldn't tell people what to buy when you don't have a clue of what you're doing.

according to yahoo, twitter also has positive EPS and a better p/e than ********

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=twtr+Analyst+Estimates
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=fb+Analyst+Estimates

not that i will buy either

Comparing EPS makes no sense at all, PE is a metric that standardizes EPS so you can compare PEs among peers. However, the metric in a vacuum still holds no weight in terms of value.

[Gothwaite]

Comparing EPS makes no sense at all, PE is a metric that standardizes EPS so you can compare PEs among peers. However, the metric in a vacuum still holds no weight in terms of value.

i wasnt comparing EPS, simply stating it was positive. thats why I said twitter has a better PE

[ctownballer04]

i wasnt comparing EPS, simply stating it was positive. thats why I said twitter has a better PE

Sorry, skimmed that too quickly, but the point still remains. PE shouldn't have any impact on an investment decision when evaluating FB/TWTR.

Whoever said I knew what I was doing? I'm just here to troll and gamble m8

Trolling official threads is bannable. I doesn't affect me, but there are novices who come into these threads and unfortunately just take advice as given.

[mike.hunt]

Maybe I should put a disclaimer in my sig, but I feel like the current one is already evidence that people shouldn't take me seriously.

BRB creating powerpoint on VRX with fancy charts and lingo and everybody buying it up. Just LOL

Nobody can guess the future. Stock investing is gambling no matter how you look at it. Yes DD and research can help but at the end of the day you just never know what's gonna happen. Nom sayin?

Also, TWTR is a chit company no trolling there

[White-Belt]

No offense, but you really shouldn't tell people what to buy when you don't have a clue of what you're doing.

What is your take on Twitter? - not interested in them for a position, just interested on what other people read into their financial statements.

I haven't looked at them in a while, but looking at them now they don't appear as bad as I first though.

In my view it depends on what that '658,002' adjustments to income is on the cashflow statement, is it something one off or a true cost, it is quite a large amount.

Edit - it is stock based compensation.

[ifitness1]

according to yahoo, twitter also has positive EPS and a better p/e than ********

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=twtr+Analyst+Estimates
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=fb+Analyst+Estimates

not that i will buy either

TWTR earnings = -$350mil

chit company, chit advertising, chit everything

get FB instead, they know what they're doing over there with advertising, and have positive EPS

Making investment decisions by looking at ratios and headlines is a ticket to losing money. Dont't listen analyst opinions either. Those are junk.

Justing looking out for yall.

What is your take on Twitter? - not interested in them for a position, just interested on what other people read into their financial statements.

I haven't looked at them in a while, but looking at them now they don't appear as bad as I first though.

In my view it depends on what that '658,002' adjustments to income is on the cashflow statement, is it something one off or a true cost, it is quite a large amount.

Edit - it is stock based compensation.

Haven't gotten a chance to deep dive and fully model TWTR out, but skimming through their financials, its trading at about fair value right now imo. ~$15

[Gothwaite]

Making investment decisions by looking at ratios and headlines is a ticket to losing money.

Justing looking out for yall.

dont worry, i wont. was just correcting the facts

i invest off nothing but luck and emotion

[Venom08]

Chit closes on both indices and gold. Selling should resume tomorrow in both markets.

[ctownballer04]

What is your take on Twitter? - not interested in them for a position, just interested on what other people read into their financial statements.

I haven't looked at them in a while, but looking at them now they don't appear as bad as I first though.

In my view it depends on what that '658,002' adjustments to income is on the cashflow statement, is it something one off or a true cost, it is quite a large amount.

Never tried to value TWTR or FB, but yeah I agree from a surface level. Are you looking at #s on yahoo finance or something? I'd highly recommend avoiding that and going straight to the source @ sec.gov. You'll find way more information and less errors. You could reconcile the 658,002 from the actual statement of CFs and try to see where yahoo pulling that from.


I know Damodaran has done multiple valuations of TWTR in the past, not sure when his most recent update is though. In my mind, the thesis for an investment/short in TWTR would be primarily based on my perception of management. It'd be a bet on the future and their ability to transition this chithole into a legitimate business like FB has become.

[Venom08]

dont worry, i wont. was just correcting the facts

i invest off nothing but luck and emotion

GL with your trading goals of 2016. Actually, don't even feel too bad. Most will be buying these highs in gold and the indices purely off emotion thinking they'll miss out. Nah, we're still stuck in a range and unless new highs get made in both markets, then expect the selling to resume soon.

[White-Belt]

Never tried to value TWTR or FB, but yeah I agree from a surface level. Are you looking at #s on yahoo finance or something? I'd highly recommend avoiding that and going straight to the source @ sec.gov. You'll find way more information.

I know Damodaran has done multiple valuations of TWTR in the past, not sure when his most recent update is though. In my mind, the thesis for an investment/short in TWTR would be primarily based on my perception of management. It'd be a bet on the future and their ability to transition this chithole into a legitimate business like FB has become.

Out of habit, I got to yahoo finance first, a habit I need to break.

Morningstar is considerably better and of course the filings better still.

I'm with you on that, I have no real feelings on it at this kind of price.

[ctownballer04]

Out of habit, I got to yahoo finance first, a habit I need to break.

Morningstar is considerably better and of course the filings better still.

I'm with you on that, I have no real feelings on it at this kind of price.

Yeah, I find morningstar significantly better than yahoo finance too. I use yahoo finance out of habit for prices/articles, but exclusively look at financials through SEC these days. Morningstar/finra for bond info. Just pieced the 658,002 together, the adjustment comes from stock based comp, provisions for bad debt, deferred tax asset, and other adjustments (which is too small to really be relevant).

[White-Belt]

Yeah, I find morningstar significantly better than yahoo finance too. I use yahoo finance out of habit for prices/articles, but exclusively look at financials through SEC these days. Morningstar/finra for bond info. Just pieced the 658,002 together, the adjustment comes from stock based comp, provisions for bad debt, deferred tax asset, and other adjustments (which is too small to really be relevant).

It is decently big in the context of twitter though.

Stock based compensation is added back into FCF by Wall Street, but not by Damodaran. I think I will stick with Damodaran, we are after all stock owners, and the dilution cost is real (tricky one that).

[ctownballer04]

It is decently big in the context of twitter though.

Stock based compensation is added back into FCF by Wall Street, but not by Damodaran. I think I will stick with Damodaran, we are after all stock owners, and the dilution cost is real (tricky one that).

Definitely agree. There could be some situations where it'd make sense to add back portions based on the accounting rules for options (amortizing the cost by accounting convention regardless of future changes in the underlying, so some cases it could be known that the option wouldn't be exercised so it's not an expense, but you're still amortizing the cost based on grant date) but in the vast majority of situations, the stock based compensation is a very real business expense.

[ifitness1]

Never tried to value TWTR or FB, but yeah I agree from a surface level. Are you looking at #s on yahoo finance or something? I'd highly recommend avoiding that and going straight to the source @ sec.gov. You'll find way more information and less errors. You could reconcile the 658,002 from the actual statement of CFs and try to see where yahoo pulling that from.


I know Damodaran has done multiple valuations of TWTR in the past, not sure when his most recent update is though. In my mind, the thesis for an investment/short in TWTR would be primarily based on my perception of management. It'd be a bet on the future and their ability to transition this chithole into a legitimate business like FB has become.

It is decently big in the context of twitter though.

Stock based compensation is added back into FCF by Wall Street, but not by Damodaran. I think I will stick with Damodaran, we are after all stock owners, and the dilution cost is real (tricky one that).

Are you guys damodaran fans?

[jackedguy87]

My FB stock is boring. I want to gamble.

Which of these silver stocks are the best buy right now?

well theyve had a good run buying now your risking a paper loss for the next couple months but I believe come the end of the year youre looking at a double or triple from here. and of course in the next 1-5 years im expecting much much more. the summer is usually weak so the question is after say a 20-30% correction in the summer will the SP be higher than it is now? hard to say.

funny you say you feel like gambling to me FB is gambling, I couldnt sleep at night holding a big position in FB.

[jackedguy87]

GJ JG, but let's be honest. Unless gold breaks out to the upside (it's been consolidating for the past two months) which is 1300+, then it's back down to sub-$1000. Right now, I see 1265 as an important level to break followed by 1288 and then 1300. /GC is currently 1254. Do you plan on selling if support at 1200 gets broken and those upside target numbers have not been tested? I think you should do well to lock in a bit of profit here, there is not enough pessimism in the central banks just yet to have set the stage for a bull market to emerge in the metals market.

I disagree. the mining sector is telling you the outlook for gold is positive as with silver. I believe gold could test the 200 dma which is currently around 1160 and maybe the GDX will fall to $20? this is what a possible summer correction scenario could be like which would be the next best buying opportunity for ppl waiting on the sidelines.

[White-Belt]

Definitely agree. There could be some situations where it'd make sense to add back portions based on the accounting rules for options (amortizing the cost by accounting convention regardless of future changes in the underlying, so some cases it could be known that the option wouldn't be exercised so it's not an expense, but you're still amortizing the cost based on grant date) but in the vast majority of situations, the stock based compensation is a very real business expense.

Absolutely.

Are you guys damodaran fans?

yes mate. Several of us I believe read his valutations.

[jackedguy87]

Thanks for posting the number JG ... and I like that you posted some losing trades as the end

We might not agree on your hardline predictions but at least you put your money where your mouth is.

P.S. I like how you barely use your RRSP for trades, you obviously expect to make a lot of money to not want the tax advantage now. I max out my TFSA on the first day of the year, I was a little ticked that the Liberal gov reduced the limit and now they want to put a tax cap on it. TFSA my ass .... as long as you don't make too much, then they want a piece of the pie. I LOL at all the sheep that don't take advantage of the TFSA.

I don't like the rrsp its just tax deferred, maybe im making a mistake in the long run as the TFSA was cut in half I dunno. Techically I could max out both. but who knows what the future tax rates could be? I may be leaving canada in a few years I don;t want to withdraw abunch of money and take a huge tax hit. dont like the idea of having money locked up like that. I havnt filed taxes for 2 years, I have lots of room in my RRSP itd be tempting to put abunch of money in there and get a cheque mailed to me. I just dont wanna wait 40 years to withdraw the money

[IH8RICE]

Good evening everyone, just wanted to pick your brains about the market entering another correction period within the next 12 months. I'm big into real estate and found this link on the bigger pockets forum.

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/273598

What do you think?

[Venom08]

I disagree. the mining sector is telling you the outlook for gold is positive as with silver. I believe gold could test the 200 dma which is currently around 1160 and maybe the GDX will fall to $20? this is what a possible summer correction scenario could be like which would be the next best buying opportunity for ppl waiting on the sidelines.

Looking at the charts, gold and silver may have topped out today.... srs. Funny you posted screenshots of your profits today so who knows. I would bear caution at this point. Looking for a 5% correction in silver right now.

[ctownballer04]

Are you guys damodaran fans?

Definitely, I've sent him a few e-mails about his papers, have his blog bookmarked, and own a few of his books. He's the best source out there on valuation, imo.

Good evening everyone, just wanted to pick your brains about the market entering another correction period within the next 12 months. I'm big into real estate and found this link on the bigger pockets forum.

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/273598

What do you think?

Timing markets is hard and I try to ignore all the doom articles. The chair of my local CFA society mentioned something that I thought was funny. I can't remember precise details of the article, but essentially a Wall St. Journal article came out stating that the market could plummet another 75% or so on the exact day in March that the market bottomed in 2009. He said, he has the headline framed at his office.