**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread- Part -IX-

[White-Belt]

That's a lot of drama, if these happen stocks would also tank. Bond market collapse would bring our economy to a total collapse. Every bank would fail, the over night lending markets would freeze, making it impossible for the country to function.

I just don't understand your logic at all. I'm fine with making bold predictions, but your predictions seem mutually exclusive.

DOW 23k and crash in bond market?

uwotm8

http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showth...post1387307263

[woodbarry]

Yeah I'm only talking short term, I like to day trade GOOG using options because of the daily price swings. On friday while riding the price from $622 to around $612, the weekly $625 put jumped from $2.40 up to $13.20 to finish the day. Even if I only get 3 day trades in a week that's some nice change! I only stay in overnight if I have to.

Ahh yeah that is pretty legit. How far out in the weeklies do you typically trade? It seems like anything past a month has stupid high premiums. In the example ^ you posted were you trading a put option that expired that day?

[Venom08]

I just don't understand your logic at all. I'm fine with making bold predictions, but your predictions seem mutually exclusive.

DOW 23k and crash in bond market?

uwotm8

Where do investment managers stick their clients' money? Stocks and bonds. Well ****, with interest rates at RECORD lows, I don't see why or how a profitable management company will continue adding to, or even holding bonds. Couple that with debt at critical levels, and people's distrust in government will lead to money fleeing from bonds (govt.).

[Venom08]

http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showth...post1387307263

Been trading and following the stock market daily for seven years, so maybe one day I'll get out of the retard stage.

[KevVandersloot]

Ahh yeah that is pretty legit. How far out in the weeklies do you typically trade? It seems like anything past a month has stupid high premiums. In the example ^ you posted were you trading a put option that expired that day?

When day trading I go with the option closest to expiration to get the biggest bang for the buck. The put I had on friday expired at the end of the day so I couldn't have held it if I wanted to. When swing trading I'll go with a weekly at least 2 weeks out or just go with the monthly.

[ctownballer04]

Where do investment managers stick their clients' money? Stocks and bonds. Well ****, with interest rates at RECORD lows, I don't see why or how a profitable management company will continue adding to, or even holding bonds. Couple that with debt at critical levels, and people's distrust in government will lead to money fleeing from bonds (govt.).

You are analyzing things from too small of a perspective. Think more big picture. You are thinking about this like people have two investment vehicles to invest in (stocks & bonds), and if people stop investing in one, then more money must flow into the other. It's too simplistic for a system that's built on an uncountable number of dependent variables .

Think about this from an operational perspective. Bond markets crash, companies and governments' lose access to their cheapest form of capital (that is material as a percentage of their capital structure), company's/governments become less profitable or potentially even bankrupt due to solvency/liquidity issues. This destroys investment banks, private equity firms, and I'm sure many other financial institutions that I'm not mentioning. Economies all over the world go into recessions and depressions. In my eyes, a situation like this would make the stock market plummet (think 2008, but worse), not result in ~40 increase of the DOW.

[woodbarry]

When day trading I go with the option closest to expiration to get the biggest bang for the buck. The put I had on friday expired at the end of the day so I couldn't have held it if I wanted to. When swing trading I'll go with a weekly at least 2 weeks out or just go with the monthly.

Oh ok. So you must trade based on technicals then? How often have you had something reverse and lose your premium?

Also, I never understood how closing an option worked. Do you have to find someone to buy your option by the end of the day otherwise it becomes worthless or can you sell it whenever you want and take the difference in premiums from whoever wrote the option? I wasn't sure if you could end up getting squeezed trying to sell it at the end of the day Friday.

[Venom08]

You are analyzing things from too small of a perspective. Think more big picture. You are thinking about this like people have two investment vehicles to invest in (stocks & bonds), and if people stop investing in one, then more money must flow into the other. It's too simplistic for a system that's built on an uncountable number of dependent variables .

Think about this from an operational perspective. Bond markets crash, companies and governments' lose access to their cheapest form of capital (that is material as a percentage of their capital structure), company's/governments become less profitable or potentially even bankrupt due to solvency/liquidity issues. This destroys investment banks, private equity firms, and I'm sure many other financial institutions that I'm not mentioning. Economies all over the world go into recessions and depressions. In my eyes, a situation like this would make the stock market plummet (think 2008, but worse), not result in ~40 increase of the DOW.

Exactly. Europe's going to enter a deep recession and the US will follow. However, that doesn't mean that capital won't first flow out of Europe and into the US due to our rising dollar and interest rates. Confidence in government will collapse, that doesn't mean the stock market will. You mention liquidity. Yes, even today that's an issue as companies are constantly doing buybacks of their stocks and that'll only increase, leading to further evaporation of liquidity.

Another aspect to all of this is that emerging markets hold about $9 trillion USD denominated debt and they'll lose big time when the USD continues ripping to the upside and interest rates rise.

[Venom08]

Also, RETAIL participation in the stock market is at record lows. We need this rally to DOW 20k+ to bring them in. If we break the 8/24 lows and crash down another 15% or so, that could be enough to sucker them in and place the top in bonds.

[woodbarry]

Also, RETAIL participation in the stock market is at record lows. We need this rally to DOW 20k+ to bring them in. If we break the 8/24 lows and crash down another 15% or so, that could be enough to sucker them in and place the top in bonds.

...you can't be serious right now. So the only way to get them in is for the DOW to go up past 20k+. WHILE crashing down 15% PAST the year lows. Ok Jeff.

[jackedguy87]

the euro isnt going to zero anytime soon, eventually it will fail just like every other fiat currency. the euro is fundamentally stronger then the u.s. dollar. america has a ****ton more debt than the eu officially a higher debt to gdp ratio, and has 100t in unfunded liabilities. spain, portugal, and greece will leave the euro one day probably by the end of this decade. the weak links will leave thus creating a stronger currency. there is no way to fix the usd unless the government does a complete 360 on the path the country is heading. more and more the dollar is losing its dominance in global trade the writing is on the wall. at this stage a default is necessary theres no way america can repay its debt.

all fiat currencies are trash the only way to build longterm wealth is to own real assets whether that be stock, real estate, bullion, oil whatever cash is trash hold just cash and eventually you will lose everything to inflation. be diversified, but to get rich you must not diversify you dont get rich by diversifying thats how you maintain wealth

[thetrebel]

Lol just buy the dip ****s

[Venom08]

the euro is fundamentally stronger then the u.s. dollar

How??? The biggest problem with the euro came before they even printed currency in euros. When the euro was created, they failed to consolidate the debt of ALL participating eurozone countries because that would've been seen as a bailout. The Eurozone is about to enter a depression and it will wipe out the Euro. It's about as sustainable as the Swiss peg back in January, lmao.

cash is trash hold just cash and eventually you will lose everything to inflation.


When's inflation coming? QE 1-3 failed to bring about the hyperinflation gold promoters kept touting and we've clearly been in a deflationary period. I think we're a long way from inflation, even with a hike in interest rates.

Euro sucks, USD is king.

[cheesemachine]

What are y'all's screen settings?

[pac8x8]

I bought some weekly Oct. 15 AAPL 105p at $0.77 y/d and am holding them over the weekend. This setup is juicy.
Sorry for the older prices, same setup, just that AAPL finished the day in the red in the $114s.
Hourly:

this looks like it will go down. so short it? that's a bearish wedge.

[ctownballer04]

this looks like it will go down. so short it? that's a bearish wedge.

he said he bought puts

[skinnytackle]

forum image hosting

Bond crew checking in

For real no idea what I'm doing though

[White-Belt]

Where do investment managers stick their clients' money? Stocks and bonds. Well ****, with interest rates at RECORD lows, I don't see why or how a profitable management company will continue adding to, or even holding bonds. Couple that with debt at critical levels, and people's distrust in government will lead to money fleeing from bonds (govt.).

This is why you are wrong...

That's a lot of drama, if these happen stocks would also tank. Bond market collapse would bring our economy to a total collapse. Every bank would fail, the over night lending markets would freeze, making it impossible for the country to function.

...and more besides. You keep saying dumb sheit and you don't even know it. If government bonds crash, what do you think will happen to the corporate bond markets - which almost always has a mark up over government bonds. And if the yield asked by investors is enormous then how do you think those companies requiring credit (even Apple issued debt) will be able to function. They won't function, if the answer isn't already obvious, any company requiring credit on an ongoing basis is fooked.

Been trading and following the stock market daily for seven years, so maybe one day I'll get out of the retard stage.

Bullchit. Prove it.

Nobody doing this 7 years would say so much dumb shiet, I'm willing to bet right now 7 months is closer to the actual mark.

Post proof of your 7 years trading stocks.

[White-Belt]

Closed out Volkswagen long today.

I couldn't resolve the cashflow problem and I would have to go digging hard to find how they spend their capital - debt financing and building/maintaining plants almost certainly. But the point is that when I started looking at their filings I had no ****ing clue what I was looking at because all the subsidiary companies file separately and do different things.

There is also the added problem of confidence in management and what they are doing with all that money given they are willing to cheat on other things.

So I ate a 10% loss on that position, when the position is sized relative to my account it ended up being a booked ~2% loss. Which isn't a lot, but still... F*ck.

That doesn't mean it isn't a good investment. Chances are it is will go up hard from here, but the point is, when I couldn't understand it, it ceased to be a potential investment and became speculative.

New Rule:
-Stay away from multinational conglomerates

Thanks for reading.

[Venom08]

^ I wouldn't start investing in European stocks at this moment considering they're about to enter major economic turmoil. The signs are all there.

[White-Belt]

^ I wouldn't start investing in European stocks at this moment considering they're about to enter major economic turmoil. The signs are all there.

I sort of agree. The warning lights about the global economy are flashing.

And if you look at the debt markets the flow suggests risk appetite has turned which isn't good for stawks - certainly US debt markets anyway.

[Venom08]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...-its-head.html
How Sweden's negative interest rates experiment has turned economics on its head
Nordic experimentation with sub-zero interest rates has changed the way central bankers think about fighting recessions

[thetrebel]

Closed out Volkswagen long today.

I couldn't resolve the cashflow problem and I would have to go digging hard to find how they spend their capital - debt financing and building/maintaining plants almost certainly. But the point is that when I started looking at their filings I had no ****ing clue what I was looking at because all the subsidiary companies file separately and do different things.

There is also the added problem of confidence in management and what they are doing with all that money given they are willing to cheat on other things.

So I ate a 10% loss on that position, when the position is sized relative to my account it ended up being a booked ~2% loss. Which isn't a lot, but still... F*ck.

That doesn't mean it isn't a good investment. Chances are it is will go up hard from here, but the point is, when I couldn't understand it, it ceased to be a potential investment and became speculative.

New Rule:
-Stay away from multinational conglomerates

Thanks for reading.

Mirin ability to check ego and take loss

Srs

Inb4jacked says u should have avg down

U can always buy back in

[White-Belt]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...-its-head.html
How Sweden's negative interest rates experiment has turned economics on its head
Nordic experimentation with sub-zero interest rates has changed the way central bankers think about fighting recessions

That is reckless. Not capitalism, and it will end badly one way or another.

When all is said and done, they are destroying savers capital with the low rates. Which seems like a great way to fight deflation . Of course the flip side of that is that you can create a whole load of new money very cheaply and drive down the cost of capital.

I get the logic, cut rates to negative and the money will seek a return in the real economy. But has that happened anywhere in the world - no.

What happens in reality is that negative rates promotes risk taking in financial assets, huge carry trades, and massive lending to fund asset purchases. How much of the money from QE in any practicing country went into the real economy, jack chit.

And what happens when you pump up financial assets with cheap credit. History tells us.

Mirin ability to check ego and take loss

Srs

Inb4jacked says u should have avg down

U can always buy back in

Cheers mate. Does feel good to know I can just let money like that go. It isn't an insignificant amount I am playing with anymore though. That is a months wage I just lost for some people. At least I don't do it often.

[thetrebel]

Usd pairs at some major support/resistance. Need something to tip it over, idk what tho......

[GabrielNovar]

My BX is getting taken to pound town...... Might add some today. My average is around 33. I could whittle it down, but not looking good going into ER given their oil holdings.

[White-Belt]

My BX is getting taken to pound town...... Might add some today. My average is around 33. I could whittle it down, but not looking good going into ER given their oil holdings.

Meant to say to you. XOM is starting to look cheap. Some of these big refiners which are absolutely not going anywhere are starting to look like more of a sure thing than the service providers and explorers.

For my money it looks as if the entire market is rolling over. Not predicting a crash, but I am predicting medicore returns going forward.

Usd pairs at some major support/resistance. Need something to tip it over, idk what tho......

Still way long USD... might have done goofed not banking some cash.

[jackedguy87]

october is historically an ugly month. the next leg down looks to be starting...markets will not stabilize until the fed calls off the supposed rate hike.

[Venom08]

october is historically an ugly month. the next leg down looks to be starting...markets will not stabilize until the fed calls off the supposed rate hike.

For a gold bull, why don't you welcome a rate hike?

[GabrielNovar]

Meant to say to you. XOM is starting to look cheap. Some of these big refiners which are absolutely not going anywhere are starting to look like more of a sure thing than the service providers and explorers.

For my money it looks as if the entire market is rolling over. Not predicting a crash, but I am predicting medicore returns going forward.



Still way long USD... might have done goofed not banking some cash.

^ Can't afford hotel room for that sloot now :P haha... but I am still holding TPLM/BCEI on my oil side (getting crushed but I have flexibility to bail myself if I need to). I stopped adding and built up capital so I can deploy when needed.

Personally I want a period of slower returns/slightly negative so I can accumulate.


XOM is robust (but I am too exposed in oil now)..... ever swing into the biotechs? IBB looks juicy.