College Football Playoff Thread

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I think at least one of the four teams that are in now, will lose this weekend. My thoughts on the odds of this happening in descending order are Alabama, Florida State, Oregon, and TCU. Of course, even if one of them loses, Ohio State and Baylor may also be at risk. I'm also not sure TCU won't get jumped even if they don't lose.

Is it possible that they dropped Florida State now in order to set up a Bama/Fl State game in New Orleans? Getting dropped probably made a lot of Fl State fans feel bad, but it is now a drivable trip.

[TwoBitHit]

I think at least one of the four teams that are in now, will lose this weekend. My thoughts on the odds of this happening in descending order are Alabama, Florida State, Oregon, and TCU. Of course, even if one of them loses, Ohio State and Baylor may also be at risk. I'm also not sure TCU won't get jumped even if they don't lose.

Is it possible that they dropped Florida State now in order to set up a Bama/Fl State game in New Orleans? Getting dropped probably made a lot of Fl State fans feel bad, but it is now a drivable trip.

I don't like this ranking, what happens if Baylor curb stomps K State and the top 5 all win by a small margin? The way that they're ranked now I would think that Florida State get dropped out, that leaves an SEC, a PAC12 and two Big 12. I'd also like to see OSU get in the playoff and they could put in a good claim with a big win. Again, do you drop out Florida State if both they and TCU win by a similar margin? I think you have to, TCU at 3 and FSU at 4 gives very little wiggle room, can you leave an undefeated reigning champ out of the playoff? Most people would say no, but there's a real possibility of that the way it's set up right now.

On another note, I hope Alabama lose by a huge margin for what their BoT did to UAB, some lawyers in Alabama are going to get a lot of money in the coming years. The Tide current and former players along with Saban have it right but the BoT is corrupt as hell.

[Cleveland33]

I don't like this ranking, what happens if Baylor curb stomps K State and the top 5 all win by a small margin? The way that they're ranked now I would think that Florida State get dropped out, that leaves an SEC, a PAC12 and two Big 12. I'd also like to see OSU get in the playoff and they could put in a good claim with a big win. Again, do you drop out Florida State if both they and TCU win by a similar margin? I think you have to, TCU at 3 and FSU at 4 gives very little wiggle room, can you leave an undefeated reigning champ out of the playoff? Most people would say no, but there's a real possibility of that the way it's set up right now.

On another note, I hope Alabama lose by a huge margin for what their BoT did to UAB, some lawyers in Alabama are going to get a lot of money in the coming years. The Tide current and former players along with Saban have it right but the BoT is corrupt as hell.

is Petty gonna be allowed to play?

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. . . do you drop out Florida State if . . .

I don't think there is any way in he!! they drop FSU unless they lose to G-Tech. I think they would still get in even with a 4-OT win. I think they are just trying to shuffle the teams to get match ups that people want to see - namely Alabama vs Florida State. Personally, a Power 5 team this is undefeated should be ranked ahead of a team with a loss. I think a win is a win and margin can be deceptive.

On another note, I hope Alabama lose by a huge margin for what their BoT did to UAB

What happened?

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Margin of Victory

Alabama vs. Louisiana Tech 1992

Alabama mustered only 167 yards of offense in the game. In the first quarter a drive to the Tech 19 ended in a field goal. In the second Bama started a possession on the Louisiana Tech 30 after a short punt and a penalty, but again could muster only a field goal. In the third Tech nearly took the lead after a 62-yard pass completion (more than half of their 117 yards total offense for the entire game) advanced the ball to the Alabama 9, but the Bulldogs could not punch it into the end zone and a field goal attempt missed. In the fourth quarter, with Alabama still clinging to a 6–0 lead, David Palmer ran a punt back 63 yards for a touchdown, making the final score 13–0.

Alabama ended up ranked number 2 going into the Sugar Bowl against Miami (Miami was number 1 and the prohibitive favorite to win the National Championship). Alabama crushed Miami and its Heisman winning quarter back.

This is why I don't put much stock in margin of victory. Some teams just play to the level of their competition.

[deadwoodgregg]

Margin of Victory

Alabama vs. Louisiana Tech 1992

Alabama mustered only 167 yards of offense in the game. In the first quarter a drive to the Tech 19 ended in a field goal. In the second Bama started a possession on the Louisiana Tech 30 after a short punt and a penalty, but again could muster only a field goal. In the third Tech nearly took the lead after a 62-yard pass completion (more than half of their 117 yards total offense for the entire game) advanced the ball to the Alabama 9, but the Bulldogs could not punch it into the end zone and a field goal attempt missed. In the fourth quarter, with Alabama still clinging to a 6–0 lead, David Palmer ran a punt back 63 yards for a touchdown, making the final score 13–0.

Alabama ended up ranked number 2 going into the Sugar Bowl against Miami (Miami was number 1 and the prohibitive favorite to win the National Championship). Alabama crushed Miami and its Heisman winning quarter back.

This is why I don't put much stock in margin of victory. Some teams just play to the level of their competition.

I believe that was the 1st National Championship using the Bowl Coalition system. Jay Barker was the Alabama quarterback.

Back in the days where the rules were favorable to teams actually playing defense.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bowl_Coalition

[TwoBitHit]

is Petty gonna be allowed to play?

I think he has to, it's their season on the line.

I don't think that Baylor has a huge amount of confidence in Seth Russell, at least compared to Petty.

[Cleveland33]

I think he has to, it's their season on the line.

I don't think that Baylor has a huge amount of confidence in Seth Russell, at least compared to Petty.

he had a concussion didn't he? I don't think it's a choice

[Rukas51]

Margin of Victory
This is why I don't put much stock in margin of victory. Some teams just play to the level of their competition.

Agreed.


I also think there's some legitimacy to the CFB Playoff Committee making the rankings to match-ups they want to see. TCU vs. Oregon should be a shoot-out. And Alabama crushing FL State would add credence to the "SEC supremacy"

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I believe that was the 1st National Championship using the Bowl Coalition system. Jay Barker was the Alabama quarterback.

Back in the days where the rules were favorable to teams actually playing defense.

I believe you are correct about it being the first BCS title. Barker was definitely the quarterback. I was attending law school at Alabama that year. Outside of undergraduate Alabama students, the next largest contingent of students came from Auburn. There was a female Auburn student that I was good friends with that had a fender bender on the way to class one day. The other driver was J. Barker. She claimed that the vehicle he was driving wasn't in his name and that there was an obvious NCAA violation. It made for some interesting conversations. Law School is more like High School than College (long narrow hall with lockers and a lounge/lunch room). Imagine a bunch of Alabama and Auburn fans attending classes together, especially in a year when one is pursuing a national title.

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he had a concussion didn't he? I don't think it's a choice

I think they said it was a mild concussion and last I heard it sounded like he might.

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Alabama crushing FL State would add credence to the "SEC supremacy"

LOL - Lets don't get ahead of ourselves.

[TwoBitHit]

I don't think there is any way in he!! they drop FSU unless they lose to G-Tech. I think they would still get in even with a 4-OT win. I think they are just trying to shuffle the teams to get match ups that people want to see - namely Alabama vs Florida State. Personally, a Power 5 team this is undefeated should be ranked ahead of a team with a loss. I think a win is a win and margin can be deceptive.

I think you're right, but what I think and what the committee thinks don't go hand in hand. If Baylor put a lot of points on a team ranked 9 and they have the win over TCU can they really keep them out of the top 4? I suppose TCU would have to get dropped which is why I think they should be 4 and FSU should be 3. The only way FSU should be kept out of the playoff is with a loss. I agree with everyone here who said that it's about getting the best match ups in the playoffs, ESPN will always have their fingers in the pie of college football.

What happened?

The University of Alabama at Birmingham's football (along with rifle and bowling) programs got shut down yesterday, ostensibly because of the budget (like pretty much every college football program, even Auburn but not Alabama, they're supported by student fees). It's well known that Bear Bryant Jr. holds a grudge against UAB because Gene Bartow (long time UAB basketball coach and AD) publicly accused his father, Bear Bryant Sr., and former coaches who worked for him of cheating. Bear Jr. is a huge donor to bama football and is on the board of trustees of the UA system which comprises the campuses of Tuscaloosa, Huntsville and Birmingham. Thirteen of the members of the board have degrees from UAT and they have blocked a number of improvements to UAB's program including vetoing the hiring of Jimbo Fisher as their HC because they wanted him to be OC at UAT. They also blocked the building of an on campus stadium (Legion Field is a dump of a stadium owned by the city), they installed Ray Watts who was dean of the medical school to become President of UAB. Ray Watts is not pro sports and between him and the BoT they've blocked and refused donations for the football program and directed more funds to the medical school.

I understand shutting down football programs with a lack of support because they cost millions ($20m subsidy for UAB from 18k students) which turns into something of the order of $1000 from each student for athletics fees, this is typical for most non-power conference schools, even Auburn students pay about $150 each, many small power conference schools are in the high hundreds. However for everything they say officially, the case of UAB looks not to be about money but revenge and sabotage from the son of a football demi-god.

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The University of Alabama at Birmingham's football (along with rifle and bowling) programs got shut down yesterday, ostensibly because of the budget (like pretty much every college football program, even Auburn but not Alabama, they're supported by student fees). It's well known that Bear Bryant Jr. holds a grudge against UAB because Gene Bartow (long time UAB basketball coach and AD) publicly accused his father, Bear Bryant Sr., and former coaches who worked for him of cheating. Bear Jr. is a huge donor to bama football and is on the board of trustees of the UA system which comprises the campuses of Tuscaloosa, Huntsville and Birmingham. Thirteen of the members of the board have degrees from UAT and they have blocked a number of improvements to UAB's program including vetoing the hiring of Jimbo Fisher as their HC because they wanted him to be OC at UAT. They also blocked the building of an on campus stadium (Legion Field is a dump of a stadium owned by the city), they installed Ray Watts who was dean of the medical school to become President of UAB. Ray Watts is not pro sports and between him and the BoT they've blocked and refused donations for the football program and directed more funds to the medical school.

I understand shutting down football programs with a lack of support because they cost millions ($20m subsidy for UAB from 18k students) which turns into something of the order of $1000 from each student for athletics fees, this is typical for most non-power conference schools, even Auburn students pay about $150 each, many small power conference schools are in the high hundreds. However for everything they say officially, the case of UAB looks not to be about money but revenge and sabotage from the son of a football demi-god.

I've heard most of that before, was curious if they had done something more recently. Whether they did anything to sabotage UAB is up for debate (not saying I disagree), but they definitely don't seem to have done anything to help UAB.

[Rukas51]

LOL - Lets don't get ahead of ourselves.

I've watched every single FL State game this year. While they were wildly entertaining & showed that FSU has resiliency, if Jameis makes the same mistakes he's been making against Alabama (especially with their improve offense under Kiffin), they won't be able to surge back.

I just don't see them making out of the first round of the playoffs. I might eat those words, but that's just my opinion.

I'm not an SEC homer by any means. Grew up in PA as a Penn State fan. Went to college in FL and was exposed to SEC football. There's a reason that the SEC has won the majority of the nat'l titles the past several years. But then again any team can beat any team on a given day.

[Rukas51]

One of the first thoughts I had about the UAB football program folding was if they might sell some weightlifting equipment. Is that bad?

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One of the first thoughts I had about the UAB football program folding was if they might sell some weightlifting equipment. Is that bad?

LOL - It just means you are an equipment forum member.

[rpark]

I'd like to see the hysteria IF Alabama loses to Missouri (won't happen in my opinion... but). Depending on other outcomes of other games, it could get really interesting. Do they lean towards adding a 2 loss SEC team because of the dominance over the past few years, or do they look at adding another 1 loss team on the fringe?

This weekend's results could get very interesting if some underdogs pull out a win or two.

My final 4, obviously I'm not picking any upsets this weekend, except I think OSU loses to Wisconsin to eliminate any Big10 controversy:
Florida State
Alabama
TCU
Oregon

[Cleveland33]

God the TCU over Baylor controversy would certainly be enough wouldn't it?

[rpark]

God the TCU over Baylor controversy would certainly be enough wouldn't it?

No kidding, personally I think Baylor should be in just because of the head to head, but I'm not in charge

[Rukas51]

As I have no personal interest in the College Football Playoff at this point,

I would love to see Rome burn this weekend as I play my fiddle:

Alabama lose to Missouri
FL State lose to GA Tech
Arizona upsetting Oregon again

That would threw a lovely wrench into everything.

[Cleveland33]

No kidding, personally I think Baylor should be in just because of the head to head, but I'm not in charge

I have to give the committee some credit there though, I guess their argument is that right now they believe that TCU is playing better than Baylor. A lot of things have happened since they played each other.

Hell before they lost Gurley I wouldn't have been surprised if two loss Georgia still managed to win the SEC and I wouldn't have had a problem with them being in because I think they're as good as anyone else. But losing Gurley...not the same team.

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Things are getting interesting!!

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I think the Committee was hoping a couple of the top six teams would lose this weekend and make their job easier. It doesn't look like those 6 teams are all that interested in helping the Committee out.

[Keetman]

I posted this on my ********, but this sums up my feelings. I don't care where the Buckeyes end up tomorrow, this was a fantasy finish imo. They've had a player get permanently suspended, another die, and their 2nd string Heisman contending QB went down last week. With their 3rd string QB and against the #2 defense in the country they won their conference championship 59-0. I believe their performance tonight makes me happier than their National Championship in 2002. I DON'T CARE WHAT HAPPENS TOMORROW!

The Playoff committee was certain there would be upsets to help them do their job. The top 6 teams, which are all involved in this mess, said screw you.

I love this.

You give humans a chance to pick a winner and they will screw it up. Blowing up the first playoff committee rankings is perfect.

There are 5 power conferences and they offered 4 spots and they got bit the first year.

I don't care what happens tomorrow, their system sucks.

Play the games.

Go Bucks and to the planners of this system...suck it.

Final predictions:

Alabama
Oregon
FSU
OSU



Yes, I'm biased this time, but I believe they deserve it.

Won't be mad regardless, the committee screwed themselves by putting TCU ahead of FSU last week. They're going to look stupid no matter what they do now.

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They're going to look stupid no matter what they do now.

I wouldn't go that far, but there is a very legitimate argument for any of the top 6 teams getting in. Anyway you slice it, there will be a lot of people upset. If this happens very often, we will be moving towards 8 sooner rather than later.

I think the Big 12 hurt themselves by trying to sell Co Champions. From what I saw yesterday, based on their own rules they have a tie breaker for determining the Champion which is head to head. Instead of saying Baylor is our Champion, they hedged, and I think it will backfire.

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Final predictions:

Alabama
Oregon
FSU
OSU

I think you are probably right.

[ndmike99]

Final predictions:

Alabama
Oregon
FSU
OSU

If those are the 4 teams in the playoffs I think it may be in the following order:

1. AL
2. Oregon
3. OSU
4. FSU

This would allow the committee to match up Oregon and OSU in the Rose Bowl I believe.

[Keetman]

I wouldn't go that far, ........

I was referring to them putting TCU in the 3rd spot last week. They didn't have to do that, it was meaningless. Oregon and Alabama are strong, they were staying. FSU hadn't lost and are the returning champs, they're staying. TCU, Baylor, and tOSU are being juggled by everyone.

They could have just left the rankings at Alabama, Oregon, FSU, and TCU. There were 6 games that could effect this list, all they had to do was wait. They decided to jump TCU into the 3rd spot. We don't know why, but it was thought that maybe they were trying to lock up their spot so if everyone won they wouldn't be expected to be bumped out. I'm sure, like everyone else (including me), they assumed that tOSU would lose or at the very least barely squeak by Wisconsin. If they barely win, the committee could say they can't jump the Buckeyes into third or bump out FSU.

The system blew up.... everyone won and tOSU made a statement like they haven't made in years. Now they have to drop FSU- the reigning (and still undefeated) national champs, a TCU team they thought was 3rd last week that didn't lose this week, or an OSU team that is arguably the most improved in the country that beat the #2 defense/#1 running back with their 3rd string quarterback.... beat them 59 to nothing in the wake of a suspended defense stud and the death of a player.

I just think they could've left the rankings where they were and made the tough decisions this week. Now their decisions are tough and they're going to have to do something weird.


Part of it isn't their fault... this system is destined to fail. It failed multiple times when they were picking two and it will fail multiple times going into the future. Why... because the games have to be played and the players/coaches don't care what all of us experts think.


5 conference champs and 3 wildcards in an 8 team playoff. It's right, it's fair, and it's more than likely going to happen (at least in some fashion, but they'll probably find a way to screw that up too). It's less of a travesty for an 8-4 conference champ to get into a playoff than it is for a 12-1 conference champ to not get in....and it will probably happen less too.

[Keetman]

If those are the 4 teams in the playoffs I think it may be in the following order:

1. AL
2. Oregon
3. OSU
4. FSU

This would allow the committee to match up Oregon and OSU in the Rose Bowl I believe.

Maybe, I was just assuming they'd seed them or do something like seeding. I guess that's what you've suggested too and with what we've seen it's probably six in one/half a dozen in the other between FSU and tOSU.


At this point I seriously don't care. As a Buckeye fan I couldn't have asked for a performance like they gave us last night. In or out, those young men left it all right there in Indianapolis. Everyone has a claim to the fourth spot, tOSU still lost to VT, and there is no guarantee they can keep up this level of play or if they can match skills with any of those other 5 teams considering their health.

This is just a great finish for me because they did great and the playoff mess blew up!