How long did it take your forex guys to get the hang of trading? I'm just starting out learning how to trade and I'm curious how long it took.
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12-09-2014, 07:36 AM #2701Registered User
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12-09-2014, 07:37 AM #2702Registered User
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2 yearsOriginally Posted by LiftingHeavy925
"I bet your parents taught you that you mean something, that you're here for a reason. My parents taught me a different lesson, dying in the gutter for no reason at all... They taught me the world only makes sense if you force it to."
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12-09-2014, 07:45 AM #2703Registered User
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TASR down 7% again today. So I doubled down and bought another large qty of shares. oh lawd. putting my effective average buy price at 22.02 which is just about break even now (bought at -11% yesterday and it closed at -6% so I came out nicely)
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12-09-2014, 07:53 AM #2704DIY Brah
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Question for you finance brahs....
I participate in my employee stock purchase plan. The basics are that I can contribute up to 10% of my monthly paychecks to purchase stock at a 15% discount during the monthly offering period. I have to hold the stock for at least 1 year to keep the 15% discount.
I'm well aware that this is a great investment opportunity for myself, and I contribute the maximum. The ROR since I've participated is ~33% and my IRR is ~154%
My question is... How do I calculate/project long term gains from participating? I want to calculate FV (future value) based on my monthly PMT (payments) expected I (interest) and NPV (net present value)
Any brahs know what interest rate I should use? I'm using a HP 10BII financial calculator.
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12-09-2014, 07:55 AM #2705Registered User
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Whats your outlook on the stock?Originally Posted by Insanity_SC
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12-09-2014, 07:58 AM #2706Registered User
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30's target in 1 year or 18 months with HIGH volatility. I know this stock well, but it's prone to hype on both sides, media, CNBC coverage, and now institutional buyers.
I have some shares held since $13.00. Those aren't touched. I know where it's going. In the meantime, I short term or day trade the volatility.
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12-09-2014, 08:26 AM #2707Veteran User
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Originally Posted by Insanity_SC
Why are you so bullish on the stock?
White-belt, I'm not even gunna post that gayass comment you left in my usercp that prompted that PM. You're a lucky man Tekkendo.
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12-09-2014, 08:31 AM #2708Registered User
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Orders, growth, no debt. Actual exponential growth in their non weapons business now. LAPD announced. NYPD will too I think. retail investors will lead to crazy high valuation as they catch on...which has been happening since FergusonOriginally Posted by Virus4762
international business is tiny now. But rapid growth in past year. HUGE possible orders from Brazil and London Met. the international market dwarfs the US and it hasn't been tapped by anyone
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12-09-2014, 08:39 AM #2709
We now have a valid sell signal for the equity market.
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12-09-2014, 08:42 AM #2710Pro Fitness Model
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Haha I still use that calculator. I bought it back when I took my real estate agent course. (no I'm not an agent, I just wanted to know what they learn and for the lulz)Originally Posted by FL_Z32
Anyhow, what you're asking is not as simple as you want it to be. You can easily calc your investment portion of port (10% of pay) but when you try to factor in future price appreciation of the stock price then you're in for a big head scratcher (even with a 15% discount). First ... does the stock pay a div? If so you can look at the div history and try and project the div forward increments up to the point of FV in time. So that gives you payment and div.
Ok so now the problem! YOU DON'T KNOW THE FUTURE. You can't predict the value of anything except maybe the div because that's the only constant (if it's even constant or exists). The ONLY advantage the company is giving you is a -15% discount. Are these common shares as in part of the float and the company is actually paying 15% back to the market for you. Or are these authorized shares being added to the float with the company absorbing a -15% loss? This really makes a big difference. If the company is diluting the float with the employee intensive program then it's reducing EPS from everyone else. However if it does come from the float then the company is taking a -15% loss off the market and creating a false liquidity demand that pumps the stock a bit. Find out if the stock is from the float or authorized shares.
The main point is that no matter what the case is ... your money is no longer money so you can't calculate it like an interest generating investment. You are now an owner of stock shares and you have to factor your company performance against your companies competitors as well as general market risk premium.Last edited by Barn01; 12-09-2014 at 08:47 AM.
My $0.02 is worth $0.03
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12-09-2014, 08:45 AM #2711Pro Fitness Model
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How valid are we talking about?Originally Posted by Tekkendo
Natty as nattygraham valid?My $0.02 is worth $0.03
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12-09-2014, 09:10 AM #2712If by valid people mean MEGA BEAR, RUN FOR YOUR LIFE BEAR, then I don't know.Originally Posted by Barn01
The indicators (breadth, momentum, risk on/risk off, etc) are only for direction. Not magnitude of the movement. We have econometric models for forecasting the magnitude of movement. But those have been rammed in the arse by outliers since 2012, and they are like live grenades with the pins missing now.
The only way to trade the signal is to just follow it. It may be -5%, -10%, or -25% or the sell signal reverses, or gets stopped out.
If it is easy, women would be doing it.
(Can only talk shiete at places where the ball & chain doesn't care to look at )
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12-09-2014, 09:36 AM #2713Originally Posted by Tekkendo
WB only stands up for the materials I have shared in the thread, and in pm. B/c as a scientist, he values the truth. ( Except when it comes to Putin. That is something to be resolved at another time, at a dark alley behind a pub somewhere, when I introduce him to advisers left fist and right fist. Knock some sense into his thick Irish skull.)
Better remove some of that data going into the next paper then
lmaoOriginally Posted by thetrebel
up 40 pips right now srs
locked in 15 and letting the rest run
some one call the fire dept.
im on fire this weak
ayyyy lmao
Got burnt on all of my positions, 2 for breakeven, the other for a 1% loss. I was up a decent bit on yen but this week has been a wrecking ball.
2.5 years and counting... srs. I will only consider myself to have it sorted when I'm profitable for an entire year. Trading has been going better recently though.Originally Posted by LiftingHeavy925
Preach it, I tell her anyway....Originally Posted by Tekkendo
If it is easy, women would be doing it.
(Can only talk shiete at places where the ball & chain doesn't care to look at )
*deletes history*
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12-09-2014, 09:38 AM #2714Registered User
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well we need to clear 1250 and then 1285 the 200 dma, but I agree the rally has legs the bears are exhausted and weve been getting big up days on heavy volume. silver is already like 25% above its 14.37 low from a week ago. I really hope this is finally it, although im still greedy and would like to buy more stock even though I already own more than I ever thought possible. the fed meeting next week will determine a new bull I think. yellen has a press conferenceOriginally Posted by StevieMe
the market is looking for excuses to go higher instead of excuses to go lower.
btw I meant taking away ZIRP would pop the bubble(s)Last edited by jackedguy87; 12-09-2014 at 10:11 AM.
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12-09-2014, 09:40 AM #2715What... the comment where I said your overreaction was uncalled for but I was repping you anyway lol... you're right, I have egg on my faceOriginally Posted by Virus4762
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12-09-2014, 10:02 AM #2716Originally Posted by White-Belt
Better remove some of that data going into the next paper then
My indicators are correct within an order of magnitude......
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12-09-2014, 10:14 AM #2717Lol, those cracked me up... Good stuff lol.Originally Posted by Tekkendo
My indicators are correct within an order of magnitude......
Others I would add...
Statistical analysis shows.... "We removed the outliers"
Transformation of the data.... "Nothing was statistically significant so we changed it until it was"
Our experiments were successful.... "Something went wrong"
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12-09-2014, 10:32 AM #2718Registered User
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One issue that potentially complicates things with a company stock purchase plan is diversification. Now most people will assume I'm talking strictly portfolio diversification. That's not the case here.Originally Posted by FL_Z32
A consideration you should take into account is how hireable are you in the industry and how quickly could you find another job with comparable pay, benefits, etc.
The extreme example here would be take a guy in the 90's that works at a ford plant. You're making close to $100,000 a year after overtime and busting your ass. You have a fat pension coming your way and you have been aggressively purchasing ford stocks at a discount.
The economy tanks, you likely lose your job and even if you don't, your overtime is probably out the window. You might have a mortgage, a lake house, putting a kid or two through college at the local state school. 2 years ago your life was cherry. Now, because your income, your savings, and your future were tied up in ford not only as an employee, but also as an investor, you're virtually broke and you have liabilities out the ass. You probably also own a new ford pickup truck and still owe $25 grand on it. You go from trying to decide whether you want to install a new hot tub out back or add onto the dock at your lake house, to liquidating the lake house and putting a second mortgage on your house to pay tuition bills.
To be honest, as far as a long term investing plan, I wouldn't allocate more than 10% of your total invested equity portfolio into your company's stock. So, if you invest say $10,000 this year, I wouldn't recommend putting more than $1,000 into the plan.
It's the whole eggs in one basket thing. It's simple, but not something I hear a lot of people consider when they do the employee stock purchase plans.
Basically, if the company tanks, the stock goes to zero, and you lose your job, how stable would your finances be, and how easily can you find comparable employment?*True Detective Crew*
*JUICY J Twerk Scholarship Troll Crew*
"The accumulation and the repayment of debt basically drives every economic cycle that there is."
-PTJ
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12-09-2014, 10:42 AM #2719r/supplements
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I do remember reading to never purchase your companies' own stock. Now when the company fails you lose your job plus investments.
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12-09-2014, 11:05 AM #2720Originally Posted by MetroBrah
All of the employee 401k. All in, all the time.
Nice chart. "IT IS BELIEVED THAT" a simple trend following system would have worked....Last edited by Tekkendo; 12-09-2014 at 11:17 AM.
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12-09-2014, 11:17 AM #2721DIY Brah
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Originally Posted by arem20
Originally Posted by MetroBrah
I work for a very large, stable company that has been around for a very long time. There is always risk, but in my case it is very minimal. I'm not worried about the company failing. You should always take advantage of an ESPP (employee stock purchase plan) unless you feel the threat of the company collapsing is eminent.
I love this calculator! I don't think they are authorized shares being added. During the monthly offering period, whatever the market price is at the beginning, I buy it at the 15% discount.Originally Posted by Barn01
Stock pays ~3.5% annualized dividend. I know it's hard to project, but let's say the stock appreciates at 7% a year, and I get to buy it at a 15% discount. How would I calculate FV 10 years out assuming the 7% appreciation? Also, I'm not going to to take in to consideration that my monthly PMT would increase as I receive a salary raise.
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12-09-2014, 11:17 AM #2722Registered User
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shorted nzd/usd earlier
I got 10 pips close on one position and have the other sitting @ be
Might get to 40% ytd if I can get a couple more good trades
Close your eyes and become one with the markets
hehe
will pst charts later"I bet your parents taught you that you mean something, that you're here for a reason. My parents taught me a different lesson, dying in the gutter for no reason at all... They taught me the world only makes sense if you force it to."
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12-09-2014, 11:19 AM #2723Yes, Such language elevates me and makes me sound learned.Originally Posted by White-Belt
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12-09-2014, 02:27 PM #2724Star Wars Crew
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Just getting into trading guys, any tips? Really want to learn the game and get into it. I spend roughly 10-16 hours a day doing absolutely nothing (I'll just watch tv, play video games or sleep for 12+ hours). I plan on turning that time into something I can learn from and eventually when I get good enough - invest my real money into it and start making something out of it.
PIPPIN: I didn't think it would end this way.
GANDALF: End? No, the journey doesn't end here. Death is just another path, one that we all must take. The grey rain-curtain of this world rolls back, and all turns to silver glass, and then you see it.
PIPPIN: What? Gandalf? See what?
GANDALF: White shores, and beyond, a far green country under a swift sunrise.
PIPPIN: Well, that isn't so bad.
GANDALF: No. No, it isn't.
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12-09-2014, 02:51 PM #2725Pro Fitness Model
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So much truth when BS'ing the sheepleOriginally Posted by White-Belt
I'm tired, try thisOriginally Posted by FL_Z32
http://www.dividendladder.com/tools/...nd-calculator/My $0.02 is worth $0.03
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12-09-2014, 03:15 PM #2726Registered User
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goddam nikka lolOriginally Posted by SpicyCurrie
http://www.babypips.com/school
also K.I.S.S"I bet your parents taught you that you mean something, that you're here for a reason. My parents taught me a different lesson, dying in the gutter for no reason at all... They taught me the world only makes sense if you force it to."
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12-09-2014, 03:18 PM #2727Registered User
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nice call broOriginally Posted by Tekkendo
not srs u fukin *******. as if that call had any substance to begin with no reference to time horizon, risk, stops, target, sector/instruments..etc etc
lol permabears when will they learn
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12-09-2014, 03:19 PM #2728Registered User
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Even though you add a caveat, I tend to shy away from using maxims when investing. Take for example the exact circumstances you find yourself in; a company that's been around a long time, is in a stable industry, etc. I'd argue that the ford plant worker likely could have said the same thing. Obviously the auto industry is cyclical in nature, however.Originally Posted by FL_Z32
I have to respond to some bs texts and my phone has a habit of refreshing my forum posts and clearing them so ill post now. I'll finish up my response in a couple mins.*True Detective Crew*
*JUICY J Twerk Scholarship Troll Crew*
"The accumulation and the repayment of debt basically drives every economic cycle that there is."
-PTJ
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12-09-2014, 03:26 PM #2729Registered User
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USD pairs fell over 200 pips.....Originally Posted by stevesteve12
ES is falling as well...
can't we all just get a long
"I bet your parents taught you that you mean something, that you're here for a reason. My parents taught me a different lesson, dying in the gutter for no reason at all... They taught me the world only makes sense if you force it to."
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12-09-2014, 03:28 PM #2730Banned
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in afterOriginally Posted by White-Belt
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