***Official Fantasy Football Advice Thread***

[Nainoa]

just finished my first draft this year. Think i did pretty well. 14 teams/8th overall

QB:Philip Rivers
RB:Ray Rice
RB:Matt Forte
WR:Reggie Wayne
WR:Wes Welker
WR:Malcom Floyd
TE:Owen Daniels
K:Nate Kaeding
DEF:Bengals

BEN:
Dez Bryant
Michael Bush
Leon Washington
Mike Bell
Anthony Gonzalez
Jacoby Jones

Looks Really Good for a 14 team.

My only concern is that early in the season as Welker is working his way back, that you don't really have a solid fill in there.
I mean if Gonzalez (or Dez) wins that starting job, then you're Golden like Pony-Boy. If Not... That #3 WR spot might pester on you all season long.

*****

Another thing to look at is Owen Daniels.... The last I heard, they don't expect him to be fully back by the time camp opens... Which makes it doubtful he'll start by week 1... And you don't have a Backup TE at all.

Depending on what's available for TE free agents... You might want to drop Leon Washington (Who's doubtful going to be more than a Kick Returner for the early part of the year) and try to pick up a TE that can play until Owen Daniels is completely back.

[Nainoa]

As I mentioned earlier in regard to bye weeks. A possible advantage can be found if you pair your Starter with a back up who's got a sweet matchup on the starting players Bye week. For this one I just focused on QB's, RB's and Defenses, as WR and TE either have a lot of depth or other matchups are inconsistent.

Since there's a certain amount of Gray area between Low end #1's and high end #2's which are different for a 10 team league over a 14 etc... There is bound to be some over lap, or some guys you might think have gone missing to your own particular league's rules.

Week 4
QB's on a Bye
Favre, Romo

QB's with good matchups
Palmer vs Cle
Kolb vs Wash

RB's on Bye
J. Charles, A.D., Felix Jones

RB's with good matchups
P.Thomas vs Car, Ben Tate @ oak, McCoy vs Wash, R. Mathews vs AZ, Ronnie Brown vs NE

Defenses on Bye
MN, Dallas

Defense's with good matchups
Seahawks @ StL, Houston @ Oak, Bengals @ Cle


WEEK 5
QB's on Bye
Brady

QB's with good matchups
Palmer vs TB
Stafford vs StL
Garrard vs Buff

RB's on Bye
Ronnie Brown, Mendy

RB's with good mathcups
CJ Spiller vs Jax
A. Best vs StL
P. Thomas/R. Bush @ AZ
R. Mathews @ Oak

Def's on Bye
Pitt

Def's with good matchups
Jaguars @ Buff
Bengals vs TB

WEEK 6
QB's with On Bye: N/A

RB's on bye
Ced Ben, D-Will, J-Stew

RB's with good mathcups
Jacobs/Bradshaw vs Det
P. Thomas/Reggie Bush @ TB
Forte/C. Taylor vs Sea

D's: N/A

WEEK 7
QB's: Schaub, P. Manning

QB's with good matchups
Flaaco vs Buff,
Orton vs Oak
M. Ryan vs Cinci

RB's: Shonn Greene

Rb's with good matchups
Cad. Williams vs StL
Beanie Wells @ Sea

Def: Jets

D's with good matchups Denver vs Oak

WEEK 8
QB's on Bye: M. Ryan, J. Cutler, E. Manning, Kolb

QB's with good matchups
Palmer vs Mia
Cassle vs Buff
Hasslebeck @ Oak
Leinert vs TB

RB's on Bye: Turner, R. Rice, Forte, Jacobs, McCoy

RB's with good matchups
Felix Jones/M. Barber vs Jax
Forsett @ oak
M. Bush/McFadden vs Sea
B. Well vs TB

D's on Bye: Balt, Chic, NYG, Philly

D's with good matchups:
Dallas vs Jax
Car @ StL
AZ vs TB

WEEK 9
QB's on Bye: McNabb, Orton

QB's with good matchups
M. Ryan vs TB
M. Sanchez @ det

RB's on Bye
Mojo, Gore, S-Jax, Moreno, Chris Johnson

RB's with Good Matchups
Forte/C. Taylor @ Buff
McCoy vs Indy
R. Mathews @ Hou
PT/Reggie Bush vs Car

D's on Bye
SF, Tenn, Den

D's with good Matchups
Atlanta vs TB
Chicago @ Buff
NE @ Cle
KC vs Oak

WEEK 10
QB's on Bye: Rogers, Brees, Rivers

QB's with good matchups
Stafford @ Buff
Sanches @ Cle
Leinert vs Sea
Alex Smith vs StL

RB's on Bye
Grant, PT/R. Bush, McFadded/M. Bush, Ryan Mathews

RB's with good matchups
J. Best @ Buff
Ben tate @ Jax
D-Will/J-Stew @ TB
Beanie wells vs Sea

Def's on Bye
GB, NO

Def's with good matchups
Houston @ Jax
Carolina @ TB
AZ vs Sea

[Hoop_Dreams]

Wow Nainoa... AWESOME work.

Have you had any drafts yet? I'd be interested to see what kind of roster you put together.

[sircharles032]

I created a thread about this a while back but since this thread will be viewed by a lot more people I'll repost my initial question here. For those of you that responded previously, thanks.

10 team Keeper League - PPR
QB (25yds = pt. TD=6. INT=-2)
RB,RB, WR, WR, TE, WR/RB (PPR, TD=6, Fumb=-2)

I'm getting back into a league that I used to regularly play in. I'm taking over the keepers from a team that went inactive so they're booting out. I can keep 2 players from this list with the above settings... I'd like to know what YOU would do and why.

Chris Johnson - Keeper 1.

Keeper 2: ??
Phillip Rivers
Vjax
Desean Jax
M. Forte

The league mandates that we list our keepers (as of a week ago) but they can be changed IF a situation comes up that would significantly alter one's value (See: VJax situation).

At the moment I have Rivers listed. As he's the safest option. Forte scares me and I already have a RB, though lettuce be reality, Forte was a top 5 pick in a lot of PPR drafts last year, though he turned in a less than studly season. Martz helps. Chester Taylor does not...

VJax would be my man. If it weren't for the suspension. Hell, even with the suspension I'd consider him if I knew he'd be in that SD uniform for the final 13 games of the season.

DJax I'm not sure is a #1 in a PPR league as he's a big play type of guy which will not always lead to consistent numbers in this format.

Rivers is a stud but with the other QBs available I could get a comparable or better QB a round or two later at least.


Notes - I have the 4th pick in the draft. If I kept one of the WRs, there is a good chance I could land (Rivers, Schaub, Ryan, Kolb) in the first drafted round OR the snake back because 6 of the 10 teams (including 2 of the 3 drafting in front of me) have QBs as keepers. Fitz/Moss are the top level receivers available though the odds of me nailing one of those down isn't as great with the 4th pick since the amount of quality RBs isn't great and many of those guys left won't be picked in that first round.

Would the potential for me to land one of those quarterbacks in the actual draft entice me to give up the steady production of Rivers and keep DJax or VJax?

What do you guys think?

[Vigilante_Inc]

My live draft is on the 31st.

12 man league, snake draft.

Absolutely cannot wait for football to start. I know this isn't actually a contribution or anything just wanted to get sub'd into a few of these threads so I can read through them at work. Posting more later.

[Nainoa]

I created a thread about this a while back but since this thread will be viewed by a lot more people I'll repost my initial question here. For those of you that responded previously, thanks.

10 team Keeper League - PPR
QB (25yds = pt. TD=6. INT=-2)
RB,RB, WR, WR, TE, WR/RB (PPR, TD=6, Fumb=-2)

I'm getting back into a league that I used to regularly play in. I'm taking over the keepers from a team that went inactive so they're booting out. I can keep 2 players from this list with the above settings... I'd like to know what YOU would do and why.

Chris Johnson - Keeper 1.

Keeper 2: ??
Phillip Rivers
Vjax
Desean Jax
M. Forte

The league mandates that we list our keepers (as of a week ago) but they can be changed IF a situation comes up that would significantly alter one's value (See: VJax situation).

At the moment I have Rivers listed. As he's the safest option. Forte scares me and I already have a RB, though lettuce be reality, Forte was a top 5 pick in a lot of PPR drafts last year, though he turned in a less than studly season. Martz helps. Chester Taylor does not...

VJax would be my man. If it weren't for the suspension. Hell, even with the suspension I'd consider him if I knew he'd be in that SD uniform for the final 13 games of the season.

DJax I'm not sure is a #1 in a PPR league as he's a big play type of guy which will not always lead to consistent numbers in this format.

Rivers is a stud but with the other QBs available I could get a comparable or better QB a round or two later at least.


Notes - I have the 4th pick in the draft. If I kept one of the WRs, there is a good chance I could land (Rivers, Schaub, Ryan, Kolb) in the first drafted round OR the snake back because 6 of the 10 teams (including 2 of the 3 drafting in front of me) have QBs as keepers. Fitz/Moss are the top level receivers available though the odds of me nailing one of those down isn't as great with the 4th pick since the amount of quality RBs isn't great and many of those guys left won't be picked in that first round.

Would the potential for me to land one of those quarterbacks in the actual draft entice me to give up the steady production of Rivers and keep DJax or VJax?

What do you guys think?

IMO it comes down to a Rivers or DS-Jax...

In the case for Rivers is that even with V-Jax potentially at the end of the year... I think Rivers can make a lot of fantasy relevant things happen with Legadu Nannae and Malcolm Flyod (Who I think regardless of V-Jax will is going to step up this year.) Not to mention swing passes to Ryan Mathews.

DS-Jax... If McNabb would have stayed in Philly, he would be a for sure keeper on that list. I'm personally not so sure with Kolb and the fact that D's can focus on DS-Jax as the only proven commodity on that offense.

Not to mention you have 2 games a year against Washington... Where McNabb is basically giving Shanny the Eagles playbook.

When we factor all of those things into the Nainoa-tron 5000 computer. I think you're looking at a dead even heat between Rivers and DSJ.

So then I think we have to look at the bigger question...

What is everyone else in the league keeping (Best guesses)?
If all the elite QB's are being kept but a ton of #1 WR's are being thrown back... Then it says "Hey I can't get a Rivers Caliber QB back... But I can probably get a DSJ caliber WR!"

My psychic left elbow tells me that once you get a barometer on the player pool itself, it will reveal the best answer.

[Nainoa]

Wow Nainoa... AWESOME work.

Have you had any drafts yet? I'd be interested to see what kind of roster you put together.

No... My Dyanasty Builder draft is on the 28th...

Then I'm currently trying to put together a super-secret Mod only Fantasy Football League, for fun.

Those are the only leagues I'll play in.

I'm not one of those guys who plays in a dozen leagues, until he finds one full of newbies and retards who draft 6 guys from their favorite childhood team... Then he wins a championship and uses that caveat as reasoning for why he's some kind of Fantasy Football Genius.

My aim in the past 15/16 years of Fantasy Football is to always play with the best of the best. The sharpest pencils and the most seasoned veterans.

To even get into my Dynasty Builder league you have to have 10 years of FF experience. (Okay, we let that slide at around 6-8 for some guys)

In this way my 3 championships and 4 bowl appearances in 9 years mean more to me. And everytime my opponent is crushed beneath my heels, I know his tears are from the dagger I shoved into his heart, and he's not just passing on saying "Oh Well" so he can focus on his other league.

For more info on my dynasty keepers, just go back to the first page of this thread and read on!

[sircharles032]

IMO it comes down to a Rivers or DS-Jax...

In the case for Rivers is that even with V-Jax potentially at the end of the year... I think Rivers can make a lot of fantasy relevant things happen with Legadu Nannae and Malcolm Flyod (Who I think regardless of V-Jax will is going to step up this year.) Not to mention swing passes to Ryan Mathews.

DS-Jax... If McNabb would have stayed in Philly, he would be a for sure keeper on that list. I'm personally not so sure with Kolb and the fact that D's can focus on DS-Jax as the only proven commodity on that offense.

Not to mention you have 2 games a year against Washington... Where McNabb is basically giving Shanny the Eagles playbook.

When we factor all of those things into the Nainoa-tron 5000 computer. I think you're looking at a dead even heat between Rivers and DSJ.

So then I think we have to look at the bigger question...

What is everyone else in the league keeping (Best guesses)?
If all the elite QB's are being kept but a ton of #1 WR's are being thrown back... Then it says "Hey I can't get a Rivers Caliber QB back... But I can probably get a DSJ caliber WR!"

My psychic left elbow tells me that once you get a barometer on the player pool itself, it will reveal the best answer.

I think we're on the same page here. I'm leaning AWAY from Rivers at the moment because only 4 teams in the league need a number 1 QB when the draft actually starts (6 teams keeping), meaning I'll have a couple of rounds to filter through the draft with Rivers, Schaub, Kolb, Ryan floating around which means I should be able to land 1 of those guys if I throw Rivers back.

One of the Jax's might be my best bet as the WR pool is more thin. Best available WRs are Moss, Fitz, White, Austin, Rice... The odds of me landing Moss/Fitz are probably slim so I'm thinking that keeping a WR and grabbing White or Austin (if Moss and Fitz are off the board) with that 4th pick and then picking up one of those before mentioned QBs on the snake back (or if 2 or 3 of them are left on the snake back grabbing a RB).

Do you think it'd be too big of a gamble to take Vjax over Djax and pick up someone like Edelman (or Malcolm Floyd) later in the draft to stopgap until the suspension is over?

Pretty sure I'm going to go with a WR, I just feel that long term VJax is a possible certified STUD WR and I'm not so sure with Djax that he is.

[Nainoa]

I think we're on the same page here. I'm leaning AWAY from Rivers at the moment because only 4 teams in the league need a number 1 QB when the draft actually starts (6 teams keeping), meaning I'll have a couple of rounds to filter through the draft with Rivers, Schaub, Kolb, Ryan floating around which means I should be able to land 1 of those guys if I throw Rivers back.

One of the Jax's might be my best bet as the WR pool is more thin. Best available WRs are Moss, Fitz, White, Austin, Rice... The odds of me landing Moss/Fitz are probably slim so I'm thinking that keeping a WR and grabbing White or Austin (if Moss and Fitz are off the board) with that 4th pick and then picking up one of those before mentioned QBs on the snake back (or if 2 or 3 of them are left on the snake back grabbing a RB).

Do you think it'd be too big of a gamble to take Vjax over Djax and pick up someone like Edelman (or Malcolm Floyd) later in the draft to stopgap until the suspension is over?

Pretty sure I'm going to go with a WR, I just feel that long term VJax is a possible certified STUD WR and I'm not so sure with Djax that he is.

Like we discussed a page back... Edelman is a great early filler for V-jax or Santonio Holmes Owners. But in your shoes I wouldn't keep V-Jax when compared to the value of DSJ.

I'm low on Fitzgerald this year... High on Matt Ryan

Schaub I like... But my psychic left elbow tells me he's got injuries issues looming re-again. (I think last years healthy year is the "Fluke")


What does the Runningback pool look like?

[sircharles032]

Like we discussed a page back... Edelman is a great early filler for V-jax or Santonio Holmes Owners. But in your shoes I wouldn't keep V-Jax when compared to the value of DSJ.

I'm low on Fitzgerald this year... High on Matt Ryan

Schaub I like... But my psychic left elbow tells me he's got injuries issues looming re-again. (I think last years healthy year is the "Fluke")


What does the Runningback pool look like?

Tuner, Mendy, Mathews, Greene, then the drop off to the Ryan Grant/Pierre Thomas and below tier are available (minus Knowshon).

Out of curiosity, why do you value DJax over VJax?

[Nainoa]

Tuner, Mendy, Mathews, Greene, then the drop off to the Ryan Grant/Pierre Thomas and below tier are available (minus Knowshon).

Out of curiosity, why do you value DJax over VJax?

IF it wasn't for the hold out and the 3 game suspension issues I would value V-Jax over DSJ.
(I own V-Jax in my keeper league)

But when you do the Math on V-Jax... A possible "Worst Case Scenario" on him is that he holds out till week 10, then serves his 3 week suspension. Well that's hardly what I'm looking for in a Keeper.

Now more likely is that V-Jax is out until week 7 (Under flubby accured season in a non CBA year rules) BUT that's still not what I look for in a Keeper.

You want your Keeper to be your Sure Bet.

*********

Now taking all of these player pool questions into factor...
Feed it into the Nainoa-tron 5000...

What I would do in your shoes, to hedge your safest bets...

I'd keep DSJ...

Then I'd draft Turner, or Shonn Greene, (If they're still there at #4) And then your team has a double road grader running game that can hold up your back bone, and a big play threat like DSJ.

Then when the snake comes back up... Grab whatever QB or WR is ranked higher.

[sircharles032]

IF it wasn't for the hold out and the 3 game suspension issues I would value V-Jax over DSJ.
(I own V-Jax in my keeper league)

But when you do the Math on V-Jax... A possible "Worst Case Scenario" on him is that he holds out till week 10, then serves his 3 week suspension. Well that's hardly what I'm looking for in a Keeper.

Now more likely is that V-Jax is out until week 7 (Under flubby accured season in a non CBA year rules) BUT that's still not what I look for in a Keeper.

You want your Keeper to be your Sure Bet.

*********

Now taking all of these player pool questions into factor...
Feed it into the Nainoa-tron 5000...

What I would do in your shoes, to hedge your safest bets...

I'd keep DSJ...

Then I'd draft Turner, or Shonn Greene, (If they're still there at #4) And then your team has a double road grader running game that can hold up your back bone, and a big play threat like DSJ.

Then when the snake comes back up... Grab whatever QB or WR is ranked higher.

Ok, that all makes sense. If it weren't for the holdout scenario I'd keep him and eat the 3game suspension. As is I think you're probably spot on with Djax, as I can get a Riversesque QB a round or two later.

[Nainoa]

Ok, that all makes sense. If it weren't for the holdout scenario I'd keep him and eat the 3game suspension. As is I think you're probably spot on with Djax, as I can get a Riversesque QB a round or two later.

Yeah I feel your pain on V-jax...

Last year my buddy had Owen Daniels... When he went down he had no back up TE and the TE ranks were PICKED CLEAN.

I was sitting with Vernon Davis and Brent Celek.

So I traded him Celek for V-Jax.

He goes on to win the Fantasy Bowl, defeating me in the final 4 by Celek's points over the scrap TE he would have use.

My Sole consolation was getting V-Jax for 1 more year with a dirt cheap Salary of $8... And now he goes and gets suspended and friggin' holds out... So unless he signs a deal, I'm going to keep Steve Smith (NyG) instead.

[Nainoa]

Okay, so we've talked about Sleepers in the Sleeper Study thread.

Time to talk about the worst part of Fantasy Football...

Slides and Busts.

I define a "Slide" as being what happened to Matt Ryan's '09 campaign. Where he took a step backwards, but you still can have some confidence that he'll do better.

Where as "Bust" is more like Matt Forte, who under performed all year long and now has a lot of people doubting his ability and talking about his first year being a fluke.

So who do you see as a Slide or a Bust in 2010.

Just to kick things off...
Slide: Larry Fitzgerald, I think without an established #2 WR on the other side of the field, he's going to see a lot more double teams while Matt Leinert experiences growing pains. However I think Larry will still turn in Serviceable stats... But I bet he finishes 2010 with stats more like a Low end #1 WR/high end #2


Bust: Brett Favre... I hate to say it... I mean I live in MN and all... But I think Brett Favre comes back. And I think he's going to play until they have to carry him off the field on a stretcher and I suspect that this is that year.

[ty247]

Okay, so we've talked about Sleepers in the Sleeper Study thread.

Time to talk about the worst part of Fantasy Football...

Slides and Busts.

I define a "Slide" as being what happened to Matt Ryan's '09 campaign. Where he took a step backwards, but you still can have some confidence that he'll do better.

Where as "Bust" is more like Matt Forte, who under performed all year long and now has a lot of people doubting his ability and talking about his first year being a fluke.

So who do you see as a Slide or a Bust in 2010.

Just to kick things off...
Slide: Larry Fitzgerald, I think without an established #2 WR on the other side of the field, he's going to see a lot more double teams while Matt Leinert experiences growing pains. However I think Larry will still turn in Serviceable stats... But I bet he finishes 2010 with stats more like a Low end #1 WR/high end #2


Bust: Brett Favre... I hate to say it... I mean I live in MN and all... But I think Brett Favre comes back. And I think he's going to play until they have to carry him off the field on a stretcher and I suspect that this is that year.

I don't think Fitz slides anymore than he did last year; He had 1100 yards/13 Td's last year mostly because Warner was hurt and had trouble throwing the deep ball.. I remember reading a stat last year where he was in the bottom 5 in attempts 20+ yards down the field. This was directly reflective in Fitz's career low YPC of 11.3 where his career average is near the 14ypc range.

Leinart's going to have the arm to get it down the field more consistently and I trust Fitzgerald to come down with the ball more often than not.

Fitz's stats in the TD department could come down but I still see his yards in that 1100 range and perhaps more.

Favre I can't really comment on, the fact that he's made it this long playing at the level he is/has is incredible.. At some point he's going to break down, but your guess is as good as mine as to when lol. The only thing I can say is that, his current ADP is fairly late at the moment around his uncertainty of playing or not..

Slider: CJ2K - don't see him putting up 2k again, so he's a pretty obvious one.

Busts: I'll go out on a limb and say DeSean Jackson. I think people will be a bit disappointed with this year, his touchdowns are going to come back to earth and his ypc will come back down from a ridiculously high 18.6ypc.

He's still going to be a good player/fantasy option.. but I don't think he'll be performing like a WR1 let alone a high end WR1.

[EHSTennis]

No... My Dyanasty Builder draft is on the 28th...

Then I'm currently trying to put together a super-secret Mod only Fantasy Football League, for fun.

Those are the only leagues I'll play in.

I'm not one of those guys who plays in a dozen leagues, until he finds one full of newbies and retards who draft 6 guys from their favorite childhood team... Then he wins a championship and uses that caveat as reasoning for why he's some kind of Fantasy Football Genius.

My aim in the past 15/16 years of Fantasy Football is to always play with the best of the best. The sharpest pencils and the most seasoned veterans.

To even get into my Dynasty Builder league you have to have 10 years of FF experience. (Okay, we let that slide at around 6-8 for some guys)

In this way my 3 championships and 4 bowl appearances in 9 years mean more to me. And everytime my opponent is crushed beneath my heels, I know his tears are from the dagger I shoved into his heart, and he's not just passing on saying "Oh Well" so he can focus on his other league.

For more info on my dynasty keepers, just go back to the first page of this thread and read on!

wow thats crazy. yeah I like playing with the best of the best too. i've been in this dynasty for 4 years and everyone has stayed. Its cool too cause with this same group of guys, were actually in 2 more seasonal leagues with different rosters/scoring setups. gives us a chance to show our versatility. but aside from those 3 leagues, I'm just in 1 other league with my friends. I used to be in a lot more leagues, but its no fun winning a league full of people who just started and inactives.

[Nainoa]

wow thats crazy. yeah I like playing with the best of the best too. i've been in this dynasty for 4 years and everyone has stayed. Its cool too cause with this same group of guys, were actually in 2 more seasonal leagues with different rosters/scoring setups. gives us a chance to show our versatility. but aside from those 3 leagues, I'm just in 1 other league with my friends. I used to be in a lot more leagues, but its no fun winning a league full of people who just started and inactives.

Yeah the first year of our Dynasty Builder with a salary cap/Auction draft started in 2002... This being the 9th season, we have only lost 4 people (One just this off season) and another guy got forced out of the league 5 years ago because he wasn't putting a Max effort and 6 of the owners called for a vote to vote him out.

As I've learned, if you want a loyal hardcore passionate league... Go the dynasty route!

[Nainoa]

I don't think Fitz slides anymore than he did last year; He had 1100 yards/13 Td's last year mostly because Warner was hurt and had trouble throwing the deep ball.. I remember reading a stat last year where he was in the bottom 5 in attempts 20+ yards down the field. This was directly reflective in Fitz's career low YPC of 11.3 where his career average is near the 14ypc range.

Leinart's going to have the arm to get it down the field more consistently and I trust Fitzgerald to come down with the ball more often than not.

Fitz's stats in the TD department could come down but I still see his yards in that 1100 range and perhaps more.

Favre I can't really comment on, the fact that he's made it this long playing at the level he is/has is incredible.. At some point he's going to break down, but your guess is as good as mine as to when lol. The only thing I can say is that, his current ADP is fairly late at the moment around his uncertainty of playing or not..

Slider: CJ2K - don't see him putting up 2k again, so he's a pretty obvious one.

Busts: I'll go out on a limb and say DeSean Jackson. I think people will be a bit disappointed with this year, his touchdowns are going to come back to earth and his ypc will come back down from a ridiculously high 18.6ypc.

He's still going to be a good player/fantasy option.. but I don't think he'll be performing like a WR1 let alone a high end WR1.

I don't know... I called DSJ to bust last year and got my nose rubbed in it. So I can't be doubtin' on him again.

******

As for CJ...

With 408 touches last year and the fact that he's a little bit undersized, while I'm not calling it, I wouldn't be surprised to find him getting hurt this year... Or at the very least dinged up enough that you see more reps sliding towards Lagarette Blount and Javon Ringer later in the season.

[EHSTennis]

Yeah the first year of our Dynasty Builder with a salary cap/Auction draft started in 2002... This being the 9th season, we have only lost 4 people (One just this off season) and another guy got forced out of the league 5 years ago because he wasn't putting a Max effort and 6 of the owners called for a vote to vote him out.

As I've learned, if you want a loyal hardcore passionate league... Go the dynasty route!

yeah for sure. I want to start a true rookie dynasty this year. im not sure how that would work though, like you can only pick rookies this year to fill out a team of however many roster spots. then next year you build your team a little more. then you build your team more. and then once a player is dropped he is ineligible to be picked up and is considered retired. it would take a few years for everyone to be able to fill out a team and would take a lot of patience, but it'd be the closest thing to real football there is.

[Nainoa]

yeah for sure. I want to start a true rookie dynasty this year. im not sure how that would work though, like you can only pick rookies this year to fill out a team of however many roster spots. then next year you build your team a little more. then you build your team more. and then once a player is dropped he is ineligible to be picked up and is considered retired. it would take a few years for everyone to be able to fill out a team and would take a lot of patience, but it'd be the closest thing to real football there is.

The way we do it is every thing is an Auction...

You have a $500 salary cap.

Each year you can keep a maximum of 6 players (Which is your basic core etc...)

Each year you keep a player his salary goes up by 10%

You can only keep a player for 3 years

So like in 2007 when I drafted Jay Cutler, Phillip Rivers, Michael Turner, Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson for dirt cheap and everyone was hating on me... Well now they're back in the pool this year.

By allowing a "Core" to be kept, but still having toss backs and pool refersher players keeps teams that might have a bad draft or draft a bust and keeps them from just walking away etc...

In the NFL the majority of players last 3 years... OR they renegotiate their contract inside of three years... So there's a certain analog there that mirrors the real experience.

[EHSTennis]

The way we do it is every thing is an Auction...

You have a $500 salary cap.

Each year you can keep a maximum of 6 players (Which is your basic core etc...)

Each year you keep a player his salary goes up by 10%

You can only keep a player for 3 years

So like in 2007 when I drafted Jay Cutler, Phillip Rivers, Michael Turner, Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson for dirt cheap and everyone was hating on me... Well now they're back in the pool this year.

By allowing a "Core" to be kept, but still having toss backs and pool refersher players keeps teams that might have a bad draft or draft a bust and keeps them from just walking away etc...

In the NFL the majority of players last 3 years... OR they renegotiate their contract inside of three years... So there's a certain analog there that mirrors the real experience.

yeah from hearing about your league through a few threads that sounds like an awesome concept.

[Nainoa]

yeah from hearing about your league through a few threads that sounds like an awesome concept.

It's definitely better, and you have more fun if you look at it as "I'm building a Dynasty."

Win or lose you have a lot more fun!

The guys who just spend their asses off every year to buy up the biggest talent in the pool... While that method isn't entirely unsuccessful... Those people have the least amount of fun through out the year.

It's kind of like there are 3 schools of thought in my league.

1. Spend it all from year to year, and just keep a couple of value studs that you luck into.
The guys in this school of thought... Trips to the Fantasy Bowl: 5... Total titles: 1
Talking about FF outside of the regular season = None
Bitching about petty little stuff: Highest out of the schools of thought.

2. Have a good draft and bust my balls 12 shades of purple trying to grab that out of no where waiver wire guy who will carry me to the Championship
trips to the Fantasy bowl 2 Total titles 1

3. "Build a Dynasty from young players" and RARELY spend more than $100 on any player in the entire 16 man roster.
Trips to the Fantasy Bowl: 9 Total Titles 6

I'm the Father of this school of thought (After being a big spender and winning it all in year 1)
For us FF is a year round thing. I mean it's February 9th, we're out ice fishing, catching Crappies and Walleye hand over fist, and the hot chicks in the fish house next door who's boyfriends got all drunk and passed out are flashing us their perfect 10 boobies... And we're still talking Fantasy Football and what we're thinking about our team for next year.


I mean really... It's probably my life record for having $50 stretch into this many hours of entertainment!

[sircharles032]

Okay, so we've talked about Sleepers in the Sleeper Study thread.

Time to talk about the worst part of Fantasy Football...

Slides and Busts.

I define a "Slide" as being what happened to Matt Ryan's '09 campaign. Where he took a step backwards, but you still can have some confidence that he'll do better.

Where as "Bust" is more like Matt Forte, who under performed all year long and now has a lot of people doubting his ability and talking about his first year being a fluke.

So who do you see as a Slide or a Bust in 2010.

Just to kick things off...
Slide: Larry Fitzgerald, I think without an established #2 WR on the other side of the field, he's going to see a lot more double teams while Matt Leinert experiences growing pains. However I think Larry will still turn in Serviceable stats... But I bet he finishes 2010 with stats more like a Low end #1 WR/high end #2


Bust: Brett Favre... I hate to say it... I mean I live in MN and all... But I think Brett Favre comes back. And I think he's going to play until they have to carry him off the field on a stretcher and I suspect that this is that year.

Some guys that performed respectably last year but I'm afraid of for the near future (not many studs here, but solid players) are...

Ceddy Bear Benson - Back from the dead, started strong last year. Was hurt and faded down the stretch. I just have a bad feeling about him. Adding TO to the mix will hurt him as they will clearly be a pass first team (Ced was thriving on upwards of 30 carries a game early last year).

Sydney Rice - Not a knock on him as the games I watched last year tell me he's one of the most talented receivers in the NFL. I don't know why but a lot of times he reminded me of Randy. But I'm with Nainoa on the Favre fade and with Favre being sub par or any other QB throwing to him he'll have a hard time being as productive as he was over the second half of last year.

Ray Rice (PPR) - Will still be a stud but I don't see him catching nearly 80 balls again. He'll probably regress slightly toward the mean. I wish that Willis would take a hike but word is he may still be a goal line threat which will make it hard enough for Ray to make up the loss of receptions if he isn't able to steal a few more TDs. With this said he's still top tier.

Santonio Holmes - Suspension aside. Pitt was pretty pass happy last year. NYJ have a run first and defensive minded head coach. Throw in the amount of viable targets in that offense (Cotchery, Edwards lol, Keller) and even if he catches everything thrown his way he'll have a hard time approaching the 80 catches and 1200 yards he had last year.


I guess you could call the Rice's slides. I think if anyone on my list is likely to bust it'd be Benson, I just can't find it in my heart to trust the guy.

[Nainoa]

I got CedBen as a rookie for $5 (On a $500 salary cap)... Was so excited to have him as a 3 year keeper.

That guy did nothing but piss down the leg of my team!

[dirtdickens]

Randy Moss-He is moving into the ADP of 9-10. His last huge year was the 23TD year, since then its just been kinda ehhhhhhhhh. I dont think he and Brady storm the league this year. The thing that made him special was his freakish athletic ability/speed and he is getting a little old.
Shonn Greene-Like him as a player, but I think he has another year before he is a real 2nd round pick.
Beanie "The Weanie" Wells-injury prone, lacks heart. If WIZ is smart and wants to keep Beanie healhty all year he will split carries.
Miles Austin-C'mon how many times can we do this with a Cowboy? Every year its the same story with someone on that offense, its either Romo's year, or Roy Williams year, or...........and it doesnt happen. I'll admit Miles looked pretty impressive, but I am not buying at that price. I actually think Roy Williams has a decent year as a 3, I think people will stop that bracket crap on Witten and I dont think Miles gets as many big plays from busted defenses.

[Nainoa]

Randy Moss-He is moving into the ADP of 9-10. His last huge year was the 23TD year, since then its just been kinda ehhhhhhhhh. I dont think he and Brady storm the league this year. The thing that made him special was his freakish athletic ability/speed and he is getting a little old.
Shonn Greene-Like him as a player, but I think he has another year before he is a real 2nd round pick.
Beanie "The Weanie" Wells-injury prone, lacks heart. If WIZ is smart and wants to keep Beanie healhty all year he will split carries.
Miles Austin-C'mon how many times can we do this with a Cowboy? Every year its the same story with someone on that offense, its either Romo's year, or Roy Williams year, or...........and it doesnt happen. I'll admit Miles looked pretty impressive, but I am not buying at that price. I actually think Roy Williams has a decent year as a 3, I think people will stop that bracket crap on Witten and I dont think Miles gets as many big plays from busted defenses.

See the thing that makes me think Miles Austin is for real is the simple fact that he developed into that skill set. The reason I drafted him as a late unknown sleeper in 09 was because in the end of the 08 season he was making slippery getting open and making all these clutch catches. He even had one huge play on Special teams that said "This guy is a worker."

I don't think Miles Austin is a star because of his freak talent or any of the other "Usual" cowboys hype. I think Austin is a star because he's learned it and earned it. I just hope that the other receiving threats on the team can keep him from being doubled too much


As for Shonn Greene. I like the guy, liked him in the draft, he was another one of my late round sleeper grabs. My expectations for him this year is that he becomes the king of the #2 RB's. If he pulls in #1 RB type numbers... Then it's all gravy.

Beanie Wells... If he stays healthy I think he's in for a big year, and might end the season as a low end #1... Injury bug bites him and I think it will sink him into a committee situation for the bulk of his career.

[Nainoa]

Okay... So let's have a little chat about the Bengals.

Sounds strong like TO might go there.

I think this helps the value of Ocho and Palmer as well as CedBen. (TO is a good run blocking receiver)

I think at this point in his career and life he's willing to not be a locker room cancer player.

But beyond the TO factor.

My psychic left elbow senses a bigger stat line for Carson Palmer this year. I think they've got enough passing talent around him again. And his schedule, while having some tough games, is still rife with teams that have porous passing D's.

[kethnaab]

Okay... So let's have a little chat about the Bengals.

Sounds strong like TO might go there.

I think this helps the value of Ocho and Palmer as well as CedBen. (TO is a good run blocking receiver)

I think at this point in his career and life he's willing to not be a locker room cancer player.

But beyond the TO factor.

My psychic left elbow senses a bigger stat line for Carson Palmer this year. I think they've got enough passing talent around him again. And his schedule, while having some tough games, is still rife with teams that have porous passing D's.

i made a ton of trades for Palmer in dynasty leagues for this reason. Good offensive line, solid running attack, excellent WRs, possibly some TEs with pass catching ability

[EHSTennis]

Okay... So let's have a little chat about the Bengals.

Sounds strong like TO might go there.

I think this helps the value of Ocho and Palmer as well as CedBen. (TO is a good run blocking receiver)

I think at this point in his career and life he's willing to not be a locker room cancer player.

But beyond the TO factor.

My psychic left elbow senses a bigger stat line for Carson Palmer this year. I think they've got enough passing talent around him again. And his schedule, while having some tough games, is still rife with teams that have porous passing D's.

yeah i think palmer quietly has a top 10 year. He's currently the 15th QB ADP. I'd gladly take him 10th round. Not saying he should be your surefire #1 starter, but if you miss on the 1st tier of guys and get stuck with a guy like flacco or eli, palmer would be nice insurance/bye week replacement.

[Nainoa]

yeah i think palmer quietly has a top 10 year. He's currently the 15th QB ADP. I'd gladly take him 10th round. Not saying he should be your surefire #1 starter, but if you miss on the 1st tier of guys and get stuck with a guy like flacco or eli, palmer would be nice insurance/bye week replacement.

And if you go back a page or so and look at my Bye week - Match up analysis posts... Palmer's name comes up a lot for having a good match up on a bye weeks for the higher ranked QB's.