***Official Fantasy Football Sleeper Study***

[Nainoa]

Every year we start a Fantasy Football Advice thread that runs through the season. The topics kind of turn over from Summer Draft Strategy sessions, to Early season picking the scraps off the waiver wire, or managing your roster through the championships.

I've had a convo with a couple of guys and one of the things worth extra addressing is finding those sleepers. Because really in the end, those late round sleepers (Like Miles Austin and Mendy were last year) go just as far towards making a deep playoff run as those first three rounds of the draft.

This is not a thread for early round draft strategy or in depth debate of scoring systems. We'll kick over to a thread for that as Training Camps start opening in about a month.

The goal of this thread is to look at sleepers, rookies and potenial break out candidates, or handcuffs that could become big names if the starter in front of them gets hurt. The goal is to generate awareness of these lesser known players, their role on their team and their potential role on your team, so owners can get a feel on where to draft them in the late rounds.

In an effort to keep the thread somewhat organized, let's try to look at a max of only 3-4-5 players a day.

[Nainoa]

To kick things off I offer you Devin Aromashodu. WR Chicago Bears

This will be his 4th season, so he's acclimated to game speed. Last year the Bears really played musical chairs with who was going to be Jay Cutler's Favorite target. It started out looking like Earl Bennet... Then he faded... Then it looked like Jonny Knox... Then it looked like Greg Olsen. About the only person it Wasn't, was the favorite Devin Hester.

Then Cutler started throwing picks like my Aunt handing out Christmas Bunt cakes.

Suddenly down the stretch Devin Aromashodu lit on fire.

My psychic left elbow tells me that he can be had as a great Value Pick. Knox and Hester are going to go earlier in the draft. But IMO Aromashodu has the most upside... He's the perfect fit for the "Torry Holt" role in Mike Martz's style of offense.

He can probably be had pretty late, to fill the role of a low end 3, high end #4 WR... With the chance to play himself into a #2 role.

Your thoughts?

[kethnaab]

agreed on Aro. I gotta do a few more drafts so I can see who is going early and who is going late. I have a feeling Jay Cutler is going to be a hellacious value pick this season at QB.

I'll add another one who should go nice and late, and that is Nate Burleson. Burleson has played "second fiddle" on 2 previous occasions, in Minnesota with Randy Moss and last season in Seattle with Housh. He's definitely not suited to be a #1, but as a late round guy, he will produce noticeably better than his draft position, and with Calvin Johnson drawing all the attention in Detroit, Matt Stafford should find himself fairly happy with Burleson.

[Nainoa]

agreed on Aro. I gotta do a few more drafts so I can see who is going early and who is going late. I have a feeling Jay Cutler is going to be a hellacious value pick this season at QB.

.

See I'm a little schitzo on Cutler this near... Not even sure how I feel about him. He was my keeper for 07-08 and I cut him loose in 09... So I kind of have a soft spot for the guy. Just something doesn't feel right with him and Martz for the early part of the year.

Martz is all about timed routes... Cutler is more of a gunslinger. While I think it's going to be a good growth experience for Cutler (Because we saw all the picks he threw gun slinging in 09) I think it's going to take a little bit for Cutler to grow into Martz and then for that to translate to the recievers. He and Aroma might be a big pay off during the fantasy playoffs when you see injuries bringing guys down.

[Nainoa]

I'll add another one who should go nice and late, and that is Nate Burleson. Burleson has played "second fiddle" on 2 previous occasions, in Minnesota with Randy Moss and last season in Seattle with Housh. He's definitely not suited to be a #1, but as a late round guy, he will produce noticeably better than his draft position, and with Calvin Johnson drawing all the attention in Detroit, Matt Stafford should find himself fairly happy with Burleson.

I like Detroit better this year from a fantasy stand point. I think by the end of the year Stafford is going to be performing like a solid #2 Fantasy QB... With a chance to step up into a Low #1 in '11.

My concern with Burleson is that he always seems to have injury issues. I think he makes a great pair up as a #3 WR for a Bye Week replacement for a WR with an early bye (Like Miles Austin)

If Burleson stays healthy all season long... I think he's got a strong chance to Elevate into #2 WR numbers for sure. (Very much like the mid 90's when Robert Brooks made Antonio Freeman look like the next Jerry Rice for a couple seasons.)

I just have a hard time looking at his name and not seeing a pair of crutches.

[smoothballer]

I am definitely interested in picking up Chad Henne this year with the addition of Brandon Marshall. I think he will be a solid #2 QB when they get comfortable playing together.

[Nainoa]

I am definitely interested in picking up Chad Henne this year with the addition of Brandon Marshall. I think he will be a solid #2 QB when they get comfortable playing together.

Oh yeah... I think there's a lot of potential for Henne. If, as I hope, Marshall's Hip issue is in the rearview, then I think there's big things for Henne.

I think getting rid of Lobster Claw Ginn became a good move when they added Marshall. Bess is a great possession reciever to take some heat off marshall for the big play potential.
Add in a good running game and a strong line turns Henne is a solid #2.

[dirtdickens]

Henne is a big strong dude with a f'n cannon, def a sleeper. Love that pick, not sure how his line could handle a normal offense, but I am pretty sure the Wild Cat is going to fade as Ricky is old and Ronnie Brown is pretty much dead already.

Marshall stretching the field, Hartline and Bess crossing.........big things.

[Harganoff]

From the mocks that I have done, Aro has been falling anywhere from round 7-9. I like that Henne idea, I didn't even think of grabbing him as a QB #2.

How do you guys feel about Malcolm Floyd now that VJax is suspended for the first 3 games? He steps in as the #1 WR in San Diego and could put up some solid numbers for those games and hopefully continue so even when VJax comes back.

[dirtdickens]

Expect the same things out of Floyd, every year someone goes after him because of something.................never works out.

So far a couple of guys I am looking at

RB:
Lynell Hamilton
Arian Foster
Carnell Williams

WR:
Golden Tate
Julian Edelman
Dexter McCluster-listed as a WR so far
Louis Murphy
Devin Thomas

TE:
Tony Moeaki

On the avoid block
K. Britt

[Nainoa]

From the mocks that I have done, Aro has been falling anywhere from round 7-9. I like that Henne idea, I didn't even think of grabbing him as a QB #2.

How do you guys feel about Malcolm Floyd now that VJax is suspended for the first 3 games? He steps in as the #1 WR in San Diego and could put up some solid numbers for those games and hopefully continue so even when VJax comes back.

My jury is out on both Flyod and Legadu Nane' until we find out the fate of V-Jax hold out.

****

So in those mocks is Aroma Falling as a #3 or #4 WR. In my auction/salarycap/dynasty builer league round number doesn't really apply compared to role etc...

[Harganoff]

Expect the same things out of Floyd, every year someone goes after him because of something.................never works out.

So far a couple of guys I am looking at

RB:
Lynell Hamilton
Arian Foster
Carnell Williams

WR:
Golden Tate
Julian Edelman
Dexter McCluster-listed as a WR so far
Louis Murphy
Devin Thomas

TE:
Tony Moeaki

On the avoid block
K. Britt

Edelman could do big things if Welker isn't back by week 1. So far during OTA's Welker is WAYYYYYY ahead of schedule and seems like he'll be back. I'm keeping an eye on Cadillac as well; I expect a pretty good year from him.

My jury is out on both Flyod and Legadu Nane' until we find out the fate of V-Jax hold out.

****

So in those mocks is Aroma Falling as a #3 or #4 WR. In my auction/salarycap/dynasty builer league round number doesn't really apply compared to role etc...

So far I've taken him as a #4 but I haven't been keeping tabs on where he lands on other teams. I'll do a few more and let you know.

[dirtdickens]

Edelman could do big things if Welker isn't back by week 1. So far during OTA's Welker is WAYYYYYY ahead of schedule and seems like he'll be back. I'm keeping an eye on Cadillac as well; I expect a pretty good year from him.

Welker is obviously going to do well enough when he comes back, but he will suffer from not being able to use the ref to pick defenders, he has been injured a lot and at some point his body has to get a break, also Moss is in a contract year. Brandon Tate or Edelman should be a decent late round stock player.

----------------------------------------------------------

I was looking at ease of schedule, I know some people dont like them preseason, but I am a big fan of them for planning at least. This is broken down to account for what a team gives up at home or on the road. EX: Minny gave up way more points to QBs on the road than they did at home.

Rivers, Schaub and Kolb have 3 of the 6 easiest passing schedules. If you live anywhere but Philly Kolb should be a good later round mix and match QB with another guy like Henne. In the first 7 games Philly plays 5 teams that gave up at least 20 points a game to QBs in my settings.
TEAM #of teams that gave up over 30 points a game to QBs
CAR 7
DAL-Romo 6
PHI -Kolb 7
WAS 6
SD 6
CHI 7
NYJ 6
OAK 5

----------------------------------
RB ease of schedule:
TEAM #of teams on schedule that gave up over 20pnts a game to RBs
SEA 8
DEN 8
STL 7
JAC 6
SF 6 Gore and an improved line
ARI 6
KC 5 Thomas Jones could be a TD vulture
OAK 6 Cable said he wants one back to carry the load-Mike Bush is a sleeper, not likely to be Limp DMC
PIT 7
------------------------------------
WR ease of schedule
TEAM #of teams on schedule that gave up over 30 points a game to WRs
CAR 7
DAL 6
PHI 7
WAS 6
SD 5
CHI 7
NYJ 6
OAK 5

[Nainoa]

Edelman could do big things if Welker isn't back by week 1. So far during OTA's Welker is WAYYYYYY ahead of schedule and seems like he'll be back. I'm keeping an eye on Cadillac as well; I expect a pretty good year from him.



So far I've taken him as a #4 but I haven't been keeping tabs on where he lands on other teams. I'll do a few more and let you know.

Hey I've always loved Cadillac... But let's face reality... He's injury prone and playing in Tampa. While I'm sure he's going to have a miracle game here and there. I doubt he'll blossom into something that makes you do a double fist pump two weeks in a row.

Edelman and Welker are two guys destinted to help their team and screw each other in Fantasy value at the same time. Welker can't get back to the shake and bake he was fresh off an ACL... Edelman can't come into full bloom as a stud while splitting those shake and bake slot reps with Welker.

Now if Welker rushes himself back and re-injures... Edelman is Dietl Welker/King of the #2 WR's (Or Better!)

[EHSTennis]

Hey I've always loved Cadillac... But let's face reality... He's injury prone and playing in Tampa. While I'm sure he's going to have a miracle game here and there. I doubt he'll blossom into something that makes you do a double fist pump two weeks in a row.

Edelman and Welker are two guys destinted to help their team and screw each other in Fantasy value at the same time. Welker can't get back to the shake and bake he was fresh off an ACL... Edelman can't come into full bloom as a stud while splitting those shake and bake slot reps with Welker.

Now if Welker rushes himself back and re-injures... Edelman is Dietl Welker/King of the #2 WR's (Or Better!)

I've actually heard WR Taylor Price is making waves in camp and is looking like the guy to start at the #2 WR slot. I'm definetly keeping an eye on him in my dynasty draft this year.

another guy I like in NE is TE Rob Gronkowski. He's already the week 1 starter, and they like his ability to create mismatches over the middle.

another DEEP sleeper TE is Zach Miller. No, not the OAK zach miller. The Jacksonville Zach Miller. in week 17 he exploded for 8 catches, 69 yards and 2 TD's. He's not gonna take over the starting TE job from marcedes lewis because he is just too small, but im gonna be watching closely at if the jags go to a 2TE set more often in camp. if so, it could mean a huge season for Zach. He's a YAC beast.

[Nainoa]

Another player-situation to keep an eye out for mining a sleeper is the back up RB's in Tennessee.

A couple of things to consider... Chris Johnson is not built for durability... Last year he had a lot of touches (408 combined!)... And IF he holds out, there are a lot of past precedents shown for Backs who hold out and show up not being in game shape and getting hurt.

Not saying he's going to grab his knee in week 1. But there are some cards stacked against him, that don't exactly make it "Unwise" to look at the depth behind him.

Right now Javon Ringer has the back up duty and is a sure handcuff to anyone drafting CJ. But I doubt Jeff Fisher sees Ringer as a featured back. (Especially when he's got very little pass blocking experience or ability.)

This brings us to Lagarette Blount. If it wasn't for the whole Punching incident his Senior year... Blount would have probably gone as the #5-6-7 running back in the 2010 draft. They guy is faster than LenDale and hits harder.

I think Blount is worth keeping an eye on to see if he plays his way into that LenDale White Role. (Regardless of CJ's status)

Blount can probably be had in the second to last or last round... Stashed as a #4 or #5 RB... Who might play himself (With the right set of circumstances) into a steady handed role come Fantasy Playoff time.

I mean if he can become the next Lendale White... Like how LenDale was in 2007, when he was getting me 60 yards and a TD almost every week. Then Blount "Might" just provide some stability in the FF playoff time, when injuries to starters are piling up.

[EHSTennis]

Another player-situation to keep an eye out for mining a sleeper is the back up RB's in Tennessee.

A couple of things to consider... Chris Johnson is not built for durability... Last year he had a lot of touches (408 combined!)... And IF he holds out, there are a lot of past precedents shown for Backs who hold out and show up not being in game shape and getting hurt.

Not saying he's going to grab his knee in week 1. But there are some cards stacked against him, that don't exactly make it "Unwise" to look at the depth behind him.

Right now Javon Ringer has the back up duty and is a sure handcuff to anyone drafting CJ. But I doubt Jeff Fisher sees Ringer as a featured back. (Especially when he's got very little pass blocking experience or ability.)

This brings us to Lagarette Blount. If it wasn't for the whole Punching incident his Senior year... Blount would have probably gone as the #5-6-7 running back in the 2010 draft. They guy is faster than LenDale and hits harder.

I think Blount is worth keeping an eye on to see if he plays his way into that LenDale White Role. (Regardless of CJ's status)

Blount can probably be had in the second to last or last round... Stashed as a #4 or #5 RB... Who might play himself (With the right set of circumstances) into a steady handed role come Fantasy Playoff time.

I mean if he can become the next Lendale White... Like how LenDale was in 2007, when he was getting me 60 yards and a TD almost every week. Then Blount "Might" just provide some stability in the FF playoff time, when injuries to starters are piling up.

meh, I think CJ still gets an overwhelming majority of the touches in tennessee. a LOT needs to go wrong for blount or ringer to be fantasy relevant.

now thats not to say in a couple years, when CJ is broken down from getting so many carries from 2009-2011, ringer is a great sleeper keeper.

[Nainoa]

meh, I think CJ still gets an overwhelming majority of the touches in tennessee. a LOT needs to go wrong for blount or ringer to be fantasy relevant.

now thats not to say in a couple years, when CJ is broken down from getting so many carries from 2009-2011, ringer is a great sleeper keeper.

Well I would absolutely grab Ringer if you get CJ... Remember last year when the big talk was "The Curse of 370" how most backs who get 370 touches in one season tend to get hurt the next year because their body can't take the punishment.

The #1 example they cited was Turner (Who's a lot better built for high reps than CJ) And then sure enough in week 9 High Ankle sprain.

I mean you need only look back at Shaun Alexander, LT, Priest Holmes, Terrel Davis, Eddie George... There's a LONG list of backs who get a lot of reps one year... And the next year they have a mild to moderate to severe break down. The line seems to be around 370 touches. CJ got 408 last year.

Now is that a guarantee that he's going down?

No

But it's enough red flags for my money to go for a late round insurance grab like Ringer/Blount... Especially with Fisher's Run-Loving offense!

[saaltydog]

Well I would absolutely grab Ringer if you get CJ... Remember last year when the big talk was "The Curse of 370" how most backs who get 370 touches in one season tend to get hurt the next year because their body can't take the punishment.

The #1 example they cited was Turner (Who's a lot better built for high reps than CJ) And then sure enough in week 9 High Ankle sprain.

I mean you need only look back at Shaun Alexander, LT, Priest Holmes, Terrel Davis, Eddie George... There's a LONG list of backs who get a lot of reps one year... And the next year they have a mild to moderate to severe break down. The line seems to be around 370 touches. CJ got 408 last year.

Now is that a guarantee that he's going down?

No

But it's enough red flags for my money to go for a late round insurance grab like Ringer/Blount... Especially with Fisher's Run-Loving offense!

You can also add Larry Johnson to that list. I agree with you to a certain extent. However there's one thing that all those RB's have in common (except Turner). That is a lot of miles/years on them before they had that many carries.

CJ is still a young back and doesn't have the wear and tear some of these other backs had when they had 370-400 carries. I think CJ will be fine this year and a few more. However his body will break down sooner rather than later if he continues to touch the ball 400+ a year.

With that being said it would definitely be smart to grab Ringer incase CJ goes down. Whether he had that many touches or not.

[dirtdickens]

Is Ringer going to be the guy though? Blount is suppsedly doing well so far, kind of a wait and see how things turn out.

I agree with both of you, 370 is real, but the younger guys only get minor injuries while the guys with a few years of 300+ get Shaun Alexandered.

[Nainoa]

Is Ringer going to be the guy though? Blount is suppsedly doing well so far, kind of a wait and see how things turn out.

I agree with both of you, 370 is real, but the younger guys only get minor injuries while the guys with a few years of 300+ get Shaun Alexandered.

Yeah I'm not saying it guarantees it or anything like "Stay away from CJ" But I think any back that gets 408+ touches in a season... It has to be considered a factor. For a young guy like CJ it's less of a factor... For a guy who had Shaun Alexanders mileage it's almost a certainty.

But for a deep late round pick... It's worth the insurance pick.

*****

Logic says Ringer is the guy to grab. My Psychic Left Elbow says that LaGarette Blount is the guy to grab with that late rounder.

Because even if CJ is primed and healthy all season long... Fisher is way to wise of a coach to want to grind the kid into the Earth. And I'm betting that Blount will see LenDale-like goal line work more and more as the season progresses.

I don't think Ringer sees any chance of Fantasy relevance unless CJ goes down.

[Nainoa]

Another deep sleeper to put on the radar...

Early Doucet, Arizona

While I think Leinert decreases the value of Fitzy this year. I see Early Doucet as being the Wide out that fills Boldin's role better than Breaston.

I think a lot of Breaston's moments of success happened because he was the #3 reciever, getting crappy coverage because Boldin and Fitzy were drawing the focus of opposing D's.

Early Doucet at 212 (As opposed to Breastons 189) fits into Boldin's "Sterling Sharpe" type of playing style. that physical style often forces D's to roll their more physical DB's in that direction or a corner has to pay the price.

In his third year, under a QB who as second stringers last year they've worked together more... Doucet might shock some people.

[cbad7676]

4.6 ...................... for Dwyer.

shonne green ran a 4.6

this was their NFL analysis of him
Negatives: Lacks the speed to consistently get to the outside or to be a true breakaway threat. Appears to have at soft hands, but lacks experience out of the backfield as a receiver, with only 11 career receptions (for 72 yards). Only one dominant season, so must convince scouts he will be productive over the long term.

and we all saw where that got him..

alright yeah I'll add on those 2.

now that we've pretty much got those ranked I'd like to get your guys' opinion on some of the rookie defensive players. We start 2 of each position (DT, DE,LB,S,CB) ive got a hole at #2DT but other then that just looking to add young depth everywhere. scoring as follows:


Each Sack (SK) 2
Every 5 Total Tackles (TK5) 2
Interception Return TD (INTTD) 6
Fumble Return TD (FRTD) 6
Blocked Punt or FG return for TD (BLKKRTD) 6
Blocked Punt, PAT or FG (BLKK) 4
Each Interception (INT) 3
Each Fumble Recovered (FR) 3
Each Fumble Forced (FF) 2
Each Safety (SF) 4
Assisted Tackles (TKA) 0.5
Solo Tackles (TKS) 1
Stuffs (SF) 2
Passes Defensed (PD) 2

so lets start with the preliminary ranks

DT:
1. Suh (dominant immediately)
2. McCoy (see above)
3. Alualu (homer pick but he immediately will make an impact in a 4-3 as an under-tackle.

DE:
1. Brandon Graham (scary potential, and will see action right away in that defense)
2. Jerry Hughes (freeney has started 16 games TWICE in his career, and isn't getting any younger)
3. Derrick morgan (starts immediately on a good defense)
4. Sergio Kindle (in a defense that breeds great pass rushers)
5. JPP (osi still being there hurts him but if he gets traded watch out)

LB:
1.McClain (Kirk Morrison was the 9th ranked LB last year, and mcclain is better)
2.sean lee (will pile up the stats with a talented LB core around him)
3.sean weatherspoon (i like any LB next to Lofton, especially one that can get stats in many different catergories)
4.brandon spikes (mans the middle of that defense right away)
5.daryl washington (a faster Dansby)

i was gonna do s and cb but lets just start with these for now lol

stole the 2nd from another user

[Nainoa]

stole the 2nd from another user

Yeah I'm kind of high on Dwyer for the simple fact that I don't know mendy can hold up a full season, while Ben is eating 5-6 games off, AND holmes is shipped out of town.

But I didn't know Dwyer had 4.6 speed. Thought he was more plodding and plowing than that.

Where's that link you had to his highlight vid?

[EHSTennis]

Yeah I'm kind of high on Dwyer for the simple fact that I don't know mendy can hold up a full season, while Ben is eating 5-6 games off, AND holmes is shipped out of town.

But I didn't know Dwyer had 4.6 speed. Thought he was more plodding and plowing than that.

Where's that link you had to his highlight vid?

yeah i can see why you're high on dwyer. but don't forget about mewelde moore. the steelers have shown they arent afraid to let him have a few touches (180 in '08). I think its a crowded backfield with a very questionable #1, which doesn't bode well for any of them. I think for the first few weeks you'll see 18/10/10 carries for mendy/mewelde/dwyer respectively. then it could be that mendy gets 25 one week, dwyer gets the 25 the following week, etc. thats what teams with 3 or 4 way timeshares do, they tend to play it week to week and just give it to the hot hand over the course of the game.

this situation is very similar to buffalo's. 3 capable backs, sub-par line, and for the first 6 weeks both will be running more than throwing.

[Nainoa]

yeah i can see why you're high on dwyer. but don't forget about mewelde moore. the steelers have shown they arent afraid to let him have a few touches (180 in '08). I think its a crowded backfield with a very questionable #1, which doesn't bode well for any of them. I think for the first few weeks you'll see 18/10/10 carries for mendy/mewelde/dwyer respectively. then it could be that mendy gets 25 one week, dwyer gets the 25 the following week, etc. thats what teams with 3 or 4 way timeshares do, they tend to play it week to week and just give it to the hot hand over the course of the game.

this situation is very similar to buffalo's. 3 capable backs, sub-par line, and for the first 6 weeks both will be running more than throwing.

Yeah Dwyer with a Healthy Mendy isn't probably worth a ton. But Mendy has "Injury risk" written on him. (Not to mention attitude.) And Moore just never has been able to take on a feature back role for a full tour. His whole career he's been given chances... He shines, then fades away

I think Dwyer has a chance, if the right things come together, to emerge this year or into the next.
Which in keepers and dynasty builders means more than a regular old seasonal league etc...

[EHSTennis]

Yeah Dwyer with a Healthy Mendy isn't probably worth a ton. But Mendy has "Injury risk" written on him. (Not to mention attitude.) And Moore just never has been able to take on a feature back role for a full tour. His whole career he's been given chances... He shines, then fades away

I think Dwyer has a chance, if the right things come together, to emerge this year or into the next.
Which in keepers and dynasty builders means more than a regular old seasonal league etc...

well yeah for sure if mendy goes down dwyers value goes way up. Its just gonna take mendy being really seriously injured or him playing terribly for dwyer getting consistent looks. and thats why I'm ranking him like 6th or 7th among rookie RB's.

[Nainoa]

well yeah for sure if mendy goes down dwyers value goes way up. Its just gonna take mendy being really seriously injured or him playing terribly for dwyer getting consistent looks. and thats why I'm ranking him like 6th or 7th among rookie RB's.

Oh yeah... For sure... I wouldn't move him above your current ranks in the other thread.

More like if there was a Fantasy Football Version of Jeopardy... "Jonnathan Dwyer" would be the answer to the questions "Who is the better value as Mendy's handcuff?"

[dirtdickens]

Oh yeah... For sure... I wouldn't move him above your current ranks in the other thread.

More like if there was a Fantasy Football Version of Jeopardy... "Jonnathan Dwyer" would be the answer to the questions "Who is the better value as Mendy's handcuff?"

Mewelde Moore getting 3rd downs and playing on a lot of passing downs is a problem though. I like Dwyers potential in that offense for sure and I am targeting him late in the draft. Dude is used to running through a muddle of people on belly plays and with that horrid offensive line it will benefit him.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Only a few rookies make an impact on defense each year.


DT:
1. Suh (dominant immediately)There is some question about his burst. Everyone is ready to make him Reggie White already, but remember Glenn Dorsey?
2. McCoy (see above)Best FF defensive lineman here
3. Alualu (homer pick but he immediately will make an impact in a 4-3 as an under-tackle. no

DE:
1. Brandon Graham (scary potential, and will see action right away in that defense)Best front 7 player in the draft
2. Jerry Hughes (freeney has started 16 games TWICE in his career, and isn't getting any younger)
3. Derrick morgan (starts immediately on a good defense)Completely overrated player, got dominated by any decent non ACC offensive line
4. Sergio Kindle (in a defense that breeds great pass rushers)
5. JPP (osi still being there hurts him but if he gets traded watch out)Be wary of DEs that only had one good year, big east offensive lines were putrid.

LB:
1.McClain (Kirk Morrison was the 9th ranked LB last year, and mcclain is better)
2.sean lee (will pile up the stats with a talented LB core around him)
3.sean weatherspoon (i like any LB next to Lofton, especially one that can get stats in many different catergories)
4.brandon spikes (mans the middle of that defense right away)
5.daryl washington (a faster Dansby)

McClain and Weatherspoon are the only two you need to pay attention to. Spikes is slow and will only play in certain situations so the offense wont isolate him, Lee is very injury prone and Washington was picked high because of his numbers and size, he will be marginal.

[EHSTennis]

Mewelde Moore getting 3rd downs and playing on a lot of passing downs is a problem though. I like Dwyers potential in that offense for sure and I am targeting him late in the draft. Dude is used to running through a muddle of people on belly plays and with that horrid offensive line it will benefit him.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Only a few rookies make an impact on defense each year.


DT:
1. Suh (dominant immediately)There is some question about his burst. Everyone is ready to make him Reggie White already, but remember Glenn Dorsey?
2. McCoy (see above)Best FF defensive lineman here
3. Alualu (homer pick but he immediately will make an impact in a 4-3 as an under-tackle. no

DE:
1. Brandon Graham (scary potential, and will see action right away in that defense)Best front 7 player in the draft
2. Jerry Hughes (freeney has started 16 games TWICE in his career, and isn't getting any younger)
3. Derrick morgan (starts immediately on a good defense)Completely overrated player, got dominated by any decent non ACC offensive line
4. Sergio Kindle (in a defense that breeds great pass rushers)
5. JPP (osi still being there hurts him but if he gets traded watch out)Be wary of DEs that only had one good year, big east offensive lines were putrid.

LB:
1.McClain (Kirk Morrison was the 9th ranked LB last year, and mcclain is better)
2.sean lee (will pile up the stats with a talented LB core around him)
3.sean weatherspoon (i like any LB next to Lofton, especially one that can get stats in many different catergories)
4.brandon spikes (mans the middle of that defense right away)
5.daryl washington (a faster Dansby)

McClain and Weatherspoon are the only two you need to pay attention to. Spikes is slow and will only play in certain situations so the offense wont isolate him, Lee is very injury prone and Washington was picked high because of his numbers and size, he will be marginal.

wow great analysis. glad to see you agree with most of my predictions, and keep in mind that the last player in each list is BARELY FF relevant. Its not like im expecting JPP to come in and get 10 sacks.

haven't got around to my rookie CB and S rankings yet, but would you care to share some thoughts? Berry looks to be a very good S right away, but there are a lot of talented corners.