***Official Fantasy Football Sleeper Study***

[Harganoff]

I wish I could go back in time and find where ever in that massive thread I talked about Mike Wallace and Nate washington, because I drafted or got both at the start of the year.

Not feeling either one of them this year.
Wallace: The reason I liked him was because he was a burner. The only games he got anything were when it was close and The Steelers had to chuck a few deep in order to break the game open or keep the defense honest. The year before that Nate Washington played that role and before that it was Holmes. This year they dont have the WR threats to open up the deep ball and Big Ben/Offensive Line are going to be hell for nothing more than a long ball guy.

And in regards to drafting for weeks 14-16. I take it into heavy consideration. I will try to find the FF thread from last year. I use strength of schedule heavily and it always works for me, in fact last year I explained why I drafted the people I did and how it all worked out.

please post link if you find the thread; i'd like to read it

[dirtdickens]

Here is something about Wallace, the thread has like 2700 posts and the original thread was deleted.
http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showpo...postcount=1394

Nate Washington
http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showpo...postcount=1181
http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showpo...&postcount=732

There was a lot of good info in the thread leading up to the season, but it was deleted when they got rid of the betting section.

[shockrock3]

Actually, my main factor in drafting (i am in like 3 keeper dynasty leagues, one of which I really care about, check everyday, etc) is the "sleeper potential". People scratched their heads when I picked him first round 2 years ago. After living with the servicable production 2 years ago I kept him and lo and behold, he explodes to the #3 RB in the scoring system. Then I just now sold him for Moss, Shaub, and a 1st (I also had to give up Flacco). Also did the same thing with Desean Jackson. Picked him like 3rd round same draft I drafted Rice. Now he is the #1 WR in the scoring system.

That being said, my #1 pick last year was Donald Brown, and I had to deal with almost NO production out of him. Now he may start to get carries this year, but it will be another year or 2 IMO before he is fantasy relevant. Now, I still made it to the league championship game last year, but maybe if I had picked a solid veteran in the first round like most other teams did, then who knows maybe I could have won. So, if you are going to choose to go the young sleeper strategy, you have to be patient and have faith in your draft philosophy, even if it doesn't pay immediate dividends.

Also, in whatever draft philosophy you choose, you need to commit to it in every roster move you do. For instance, my philosophy is to build a roster full of young, ascending players. Every draft pick and every trade, I am trying to get younger and pick up more potential. And if I can't do that, then at least recoup MORE than enough value to make up for the dropoff of youth to age (for instance my last trade). If you kind of half-heartedly commit to your draft and trade strategy (or don't have one at all), you are left with a roster with no direction and with players peaking all at different times.

My league though is "no keepers"...got rid of that years ago. I personally was against getting rid of keepers but at the same time, it was kinda irritating since we were able to keep our keepers for 2 or 3 years, I forget. Back in the day, I could never get Marshall Faulk, etc. lol so it became fun coming to the draft with the opportunity to get different players.

That being said...I gave up drafting "sleepers" or "potential" in early rounds (to me early rounds are 1-8) when I gaffed in Fantasy Baseball. The year that Adam Dunn & Hank Blalock came out, there was so much hype that they were going to be great that I grabbed them respectively in the 7th or 8th rounds...and that failed miserably. Both stunk their first year so now I'm gun shy about taking "chances" early both in baseball and in football. Just me...I want guys who produce week in and week out in the first 10 rounds. Guys that I don't have to think about starting on a weekly basis...they are an automatic "start". Not to mention my league plays Individual "D" so I'm not just picking Offensive players.

Sleepers have their place, don't get me wrong, but at least to me, not in the first 8-10 rounds. I like to go with "steady eddies" who put points on the board on a weekly basis.

[Nainoa]

My league ...

Sleepers have their place, don't get me wrong, but at least to me, not in the first 8-10 rounds. I like to go with "steady eddies" who put points on the board on a weekly basis.

Yeah the whole point of sleepers is that they aren't drafted in the early rounds.

Now my league is an auction so "Rounds" aren't like a snake. But essentially if you convert it over... I got Steve Smith (NYG) in the 14th round, Miles Austin in the 15th, Vernon Davis in the 16th, Shonne Greene in the 17th.

Now that's what I call being in the know on your sleepers... Especially when my league lets me keep 6!

[dirtdickens]

Really liking Michael Bush this year. One of the 5 easiest rushing schedules this year, only competition is Limp DMC (no more Fargas) and this one blew my mind........he avg 4.8 per carry last season.

Decent line, upgrade at QB and a bonerfied schedule.

[kethnaab]

Another Sleeper to Study:

Nate Washington.

as a Steelers fan and one who is knowledgeable of Nate Washington, I say "avoid"

he will not be starter-quality.

Ever.

His hands and route running are laughably bad. He burns....er...he burned. He's older and slower and he still can't run a route, read a defense, or catch a ball consistently

See I'm thinking more like... 60 balls, 700 yards and 7 TD's

combined, over the next 2-3 yeras perhaps

Here's another one to think about, (To take us away from the AFC south)

Mike Wallace in Pittsburgh.

Wallace will surprise. Leftwich has a cannon, Wallace has insane speed. I like the pick, he will be a WR3 most games, but will have huge ups (and then deep lows)

not a consistent guy, but a guy to combine with someone who is fairly consistent.

Really liking Michael Bush this year.

cosigned.

[dirtdickens]

Bout time you crawled out of the modern warfare thread and came home.

Was looking at the Squeelers schedule. 2nd toughest against the pass this coming season. I know you hated the strength of schedule pre season stuff, but dude that is brutal.

I still dont know about Wallce this year. I think the only way he does anything is if he plays the Santonio/Nate/'09 Wallace role of deep ball specialist. I dont think there are any other WRs to help him this year.

[Nainoa]

Okay, lets toss another one out there.

Antonio Bryant?

Not sure what to think of this guy. He's like Terry Glenn 2.0. (Okay maybe not that bad, Terry Glenn was so fragile that Mosquito Bites kept him out of games.)

But still Bryant explodes one season, gone the next, explodes again, then crippled.

If healthy and assuming his head is screwed on straight again, I like him playing the Housh-role in Cinci's offense. But what are the chances that his fragility and rotten melon of a brain jump back up to bite him?

[kethnaab]

Was looking at the Squeelers schedule. 2nd toughest against the pass this coming season. I know you hated the strength of schedule pre season stuff, but dude that is brutal. strength of schedule is irrelevant. what happened last season won't happen this season.

I still dont know about Wallce this year. I think the only way he does anything is if he plays the Santonio/Nate/'09 Wallace role of deep ball specialist. I dont think there are any other WRs to help him this year.

Hines and Heath keep it close, Wallace takes the top off. He's as fast as DHB, but he can run routes and has hands and instinct.

Okay, lets toss another one out there.

Antonio Bryant?

Not sure what to think of this guy. He's like Terry Glenn 2.0. (Okay maybe not that bad, Terry Glenn was so fragile that Mosquito Bites kept him out of games.)

But still Bryant explodes one season, gone the next, explodes again, then crippled.

If healthy and assuming his head is screwed on straight again, I like him playing the Housh-role in Cinci's offense. But what are the chances that his fragility and rotten melon of a brain jump back up to bite him?

outstanding sleeper potential. He is a guy that has insane potential/ceiling, but he may just screw the pooch. His hands, speed, and talent are undeniable, but he is just...bizarre. It's scary thinking what happens if Ocho and Antonio Bryant are "game on". They are both extremely talented.

[dirtdickens]

I got no chance, Bengals fans galore in Ohio now a days.

Overall I think injuries, bad attitude and a QB that is finished will make him unplayable.

[Nainoa]

Hines and Heath keep it close, Wallace takes the top off. He's as fast as DHB, but he can run routes and has hands and instinct.



outstanding sleeper potential. He is a guy that has insane potential/ceiling, but he may just screw the pooch. His hands, speed, and talent are undeniable, but he is just...bizarre. It's scary thinking what happens if Ocho and Antonio Bryant are "game on". They are both extremely talented.

Which brings up an interesting question about "Carson Palmer" and his "Sleeper Potential"

CP is currently ranked 18th in my mag. I remember when he was a top 5 with Housh and Rudi Johnson running strong.

Since then they've had bad backs, bad #2's, a hurt and Mental Chad Johnson.

Makes me wonder if with the addition of Jeremy Gresham as a pass catching TE, a solid run game (If Ced-Ben can stay out of Prison) and Bryant playing alongside Johnson... Is this the year Carson Palmer re-emerges as a Fantasy Starter?

[DL Addict]

Which brings up an interesting question about "Carson Palmer" and his "Sleeper Potential"

CP is currently ranked 18th in my mag. I remember when he was a top 5 with Housh and Rudi Johnson running strong.

Since then they've had bad backs, bad #2's, a hurt and Mental Chad Johnson.

Makes me wonder if with the addition of Jeremy Gresham as a pass catching TE, a solid run game (If Ced-Ben can stay out of Prison) and Bryant playing alongside Johnson... Is this the year Carson Palmer re-emerges as a Fantasy Starter?

He has solid upside, but I wouldn't dare have him as my starter in a 1 QB league, especially with $$ on the line. He's worth drafting in the middle of the pack (as far as QBs are concerned) as your #2, and hope for something...a Hail Mary, if you will. I like the Bengals weapons, and the team is solid as a whole.

With that said, I look for an inconsistent season from him week to week. Their D is good, and their running game should be solid, especially if Scott takes off, along with Benson. If the running game is working, and their D is keeping the opponent in check, they will run a lot...shutting down his big passing days. His season totals won't be shabby, but relying on him for consistent QB play every week would be tough. I hope he returns to form, he's a good QB, and seems like a decent person as well.

[Nainoa]

He has solid upside, but I wouldn't dare have him as my starter in a 1 QB league, especially with $$ on the line. He's worth drafting in the middle of the pack (as far as QBs are concerned) as your #2, and hope for something...a Hail Mary, if you will. I like the Bengals weapons, and the team is solid as a whole.

With that said, I look for an inconsistent season from him week to week. Their D is good, and their running game should be solid, especially if Scott takes off, along with Benson. If the running game is working, and their D is keeping the opponent in check, they will run a lot...shutting down his big passing days. His season totals won't be shabby, but relying on him for consistent QB play every week would be tough. I hope he returns to form, he's a good QB, and seems like a decent person as well.

Yeah the very definition of a sleeper comes witht he given "Not drafted as a starter" But could evolve into a start option as the season goes on, or if your starter goes down.

[dirtdickens]

Yeah the very definition of a sleeper comes witht he given "Not drafted as a starter" But could evolve into a start option as the season goes on, or if your starter goes down.

I dont know if its just because I am in Ohio, but I think he is the opposite of a sleeper. He is usually drafted as the starter, 5th, 6th round. I think people will forget the fact that he couldnt complete any balls on the outside and that his passes looked like Tim Wakefield threw them out there.

I'll put this out there. 3 QBs have had the same elbow surgery Palmer had

Palmer
Delhomme
Rob Johnson

All three of them fell off afterward until they were putrid.

[Nainoa]

I dont know if its just because I am in Ohio, but I think he is the opposite of a sleeper. He is usually drafted as the starter, 5th, 6th round. I think people will forget the fact that he couldnt complete any balls on the outside and that his passes looked like Tim Wakefield threw them out there.

I'll put this out there. 3 QBs have had the same elbow surgery Palmer had

Palmer
Delhomme
Rob Johnson

All three of them fell off afterward until they were putrid.

Not to disagree... But Palmer did not have Tommy-John surgery. When he has that elbow problem it looked like he might need tommy-john for a little bit there, but then it proved out that he didn't.

It's the difference between a Torn PCL and a Torn ACL... One takes 6-8 weeks to heal, the other 9 months and then a year to trust/restrength it.

[dirtdickens]

You are right. I will have to look up how many QBs had that same injury. One thing I do know is he wasnt the same after Aaron Smith blew his knee up and after his elbow injury he has sucked even worse.

While we are on QBs, what about Flacco and Alex Smith and dare I say it......Jason Campbell.

There is some potential with teh Raiders. They have an insanely easy schedule, some talent and a line.

[kethnaab]

You are right. I will have to look up how many QBs had that same injury. One thing I do know is he wasnt the same after Aaron Smith blew his knee up and after his elbow injury he has sucked even worse.

actually, it was Kimo von Oelhoffen

While we are on QBs, what about Flacco and Alex Smith and dare I say it......Jason Campbell.

There is some potential with teh Raiders. They have an insanely easy schedule, some talent and a line.

Flacco = drafted too high
Smith = solid QB to draft as a sleeper
Campbell = high risk, moderate reward, but good potential value

[dirtdickens]

flacco's adp is too high? I have seen him going 7-8th round. Was thinking of pairing him with Kolb this year.

Never won a title without a big QB though.............

[kethnaab]

flacco's adp is too high? I have seen him going 7-8th round. Was thinking of pairing him with Kolb this year.

Never won a title without a big QB though.............

7-8th? that's not so bad then. I think folks have unreal expectations of him though. I still wouldn't trust him as my QB1 though

[dirtdickens]

7-8th? that's not so bad then. I think folks have unreal expectations of him though. I still wouldn't trust him as my QB1 though

I wouldnt either, I honestly dont know if he was as hurt as everyone was saying last year or if he is really an avg QB.

I think if you paired him with another guy of at least equal value you could play match ups all year. Again I am usually a guy that takes the last big 4 QB every year. Dont know about this year though. I think everyone is going to draft Rodgers too high and others will jump the gun and pick QBs too early. Thinkin about using that to my advantage and taking someone that falls.

Ultimate plan is to go something like this from the 5
Gore
Wayne
Ryan Matthews
WR
WR
Kolb
Cadillac
Flacco
Finely

[Nainoa]

You are right. I will have to look up how many QBs had that same injury. One thing I do know is he wasnt the same after Aaron Smith blew his knee up and after his elbow injury he has sucked even worse.

While we are on QBs, what about Flacco and Alex Smith and dare I say it......Jason Campbell.

There is some potential with teh Raiders. They have an insanely easy schedule, some talent and a line.

It was KVO who blew his knee up... But he actually came back from the knee and had a damn good season the next season, a head of schedule.

His elbow came at the same time the team lost the running game, and Chad Johnson was battling two ankle problems... Then they lost TJ and sputtered until finding the Run Game in Ced Ben in Late '08.

So no offense, but I think you might be jumping to some conclusions based on specious info about Palmer.

Bottom line... Without splitting hairs and picking noses... If there was ever going to be a year for Palmer to re-emerge, he has the right weapons, compliment and team to have it be this year.

And if he doesn't emerge this year... It's the final nail in his personal career coffin.

[kethnaab]

I wouldnt either, I honestly dont know if he was as hurt as everyone was saying last year or if he is really an avg QB.

I think if you paired him with another guy of at least equal value you could play match ups all year.

I've read about it, but I damn sure have never seen it work. It's far better to play matchups in a tackle-heavy IDP league for your I*** than it is to roll with the "QB with the best matchup"

Ultimate plan is to go something like this from the 5
Gore
Wayne
Ryan Matthews
WR
WR
Kolb
Cadillac
Flacco
Finely

no chance does Finley last that late. He'll be a top 5 drafted TE. I'd be surprised if Flacco or Matthews lasted that long as well, to be honest, but that'd be a darn good draft. I don't trust Caddy though.

[dirtdickens]

Nai- you are right, I was jumping the gun. Somethin else I have to brush up on before the season, better to find out before hand, thanks for pointing that out.

Finley probably wont last that long, but I have hope. I think this is a really deep poaition this year and nearly every team can draft a "name" TE before they would take a "chance". Maybe a slim shot, but oh well

If anything I should probably wait on TE. Last year I got Celek and Finley in the last 5 rounds. The year before that it was Carlson. I usually do pretty well. Dont know about this year.

Any sleepers out there?

[Nainoa]

Nai- you are right, I was jumping the gun. Somethin else I have to brush up on before the season, better to find out before hand, thanks for pointing that out.

Finley probably wont last that long, but I have hope. I think this is a really deep poaition this year and nearly every team can draft a "name" TE before they would take a "chance". Maybe a slim shot, but oh well

If anything I should probably wait on TE. Last year I got Celek and Finley in the last 5 rounds. The year before that it was Carlson. I usually do pretty well. Dont know about this year.

Any sleepers out there?

No prob

One of the things to keep in mind with pass catching TE's is that the market is about to be FLOODED with them... even ignoring the the current crop of veterans. This last years draft saw 21 pass catching Tight Ends taken in the draft. A draft Record.

Just like how RBBC exploded 2-3 years ago and is very slowly fading. Pass catching TE's are about to become the new hot thing to dilute the FF talent pool, because TE is a great position for an OC to create matchups.

So for something like a Keeper league, getting into an elite proven TE is pretty key. And the more "Sleeper" you lean on TE, the greater the chance that you're going to end up getting muddled in an, almost unbelieveable, "TE by Committee."

****

That being said I see Finely as going in snake drafts as something like the #6-7-8 TE off the board. Enough that you won't be able to get him as a #2 who rises, you'll have to draft him as a low end #1 and hope he shines.

[dirtdickens]

Two elite TEs would be nice. Always thought about doing that if I was in a tough situation WR wise. I did last year a couple of times, worked out well. Never drafted one to take my WR/TE flex position though.

[Nainoa]

Two elite TEs would be nice. Always thought about doing that if I was in a tough situation WR wise. I did last year a couple of times, worked out well. Never drafted one to take my WR/TE flex position though.

If I had a WR/TE flex position in my league... And WR was looking thin... I'd be quite happy with an Elite TE and an emerging pass catching TE.

And I think speaking of "Sleeper TE's" I would put Sheffler on that list.

He's been a little bit snake bit in his career with injuries and coaching changes. But when the stars have aligned he's shown great things.

Now here he is in Detroit. A young (Yet not rookie) QB like Stafford, who's learned enough to know that he needs to check down when he gets in trouble. Sheffler puts super glue on his gloves before every game and he's got wheels, height and field awareness.

Double teams will be sucked up by the reciever corp.

The lions will be forced to pass alot because their defense is still going to be pourous.

The only thing that might take from him is Pettigrew, who's coming off an ACL is looks to start the season on PUP.

Not saying Shef becomes an elite option. But if Pettigrew faulters... I could see shef finishing something like 6-9 amongst TE's.

[dirtdickens]

While I was killing some time at drill this weekend I was checking some schedules. Figured since its your taxes at work I would help you out some

PIT-Mike Wallace-last 5 games are a friggin death march. @BUF @BAL CIN NYJ CAR. Dont think I need to reiterate how bad that is for any WR.not drafting Mike Wallace

SF-Crabtree-not really a sleeper, but not being drafted all that high because of Alex Smith I guess- playoff schedule includes @SD and @STL-Very easy. +1 Crabtree

WAS- Second half of the year is ridiculously easy. McNabb, Malcolm Kelly and TEs should ball out-Playoff schedule TB @DAL @JAX. @DAL is rough, but Tampa and @JAX is like having a FF orgasm in the playoffs. +1 Malcolm Kelly
---------------------------------------------------------------
RBs

HOU-Playoff schedule=@TEN @DEN+1 Arian Foster

MIA-No real sleepers here, but solid info-playoff schedule=BUF DET-another FF orgasm

TB-Really think Caddy is gonna do big things. 1 year removed from the injuries and his playoff sched= DET SEA.+1 Caddy

BAL-Jesus, Ray Rice is gonna finish as the #1 back. Playoff schedule = @HOU NO @CLE. It doesnt get any better.

Mike Bush, Caddy and Arian Foster are gonna be my late round guys. Wish I liked some WRs more. I am having a hard time finding anything to back up any sleepers. Even the studs are showing some cautionary signs right now.

[Max~Power]

How early is to early for A. Bradshaw?

I know Jacobs is a beast in his own way, but I wouldn't mind having Bradshaw

[kethnaab]

steve slaton = sleeper...again.

if you go for Foster or Tate, you damn sure better well grab Slaton, especially if you're in a PPR league.

[dirtdickens]

How early is to early for A. Bradshaw?

I know Jacobs is a beast in his own way, but I wouldn't mind having Bradshaw

Bradshaw is a tough one. Every year he dominates the preseason and then does awesome in the one game he gets to play in, but for some reason Coughlin doesnt play him. I think I drafted him two years in a row and held on to him all year in hopes of a late playoff run when Jacobs went down. Never happend, Ward got teh carries and then the following year they went after Danny Ware.

I dont trust him.

steve slaton = sleeper...again.

if you go for Foster or Tate, you damn sure better well grab Slaton, especially if you're in a PPR league.

No doubt. I think if I were to grab Foster it wouldnt be until very late. Too many backs in that stable.