***Official Fantasy Football Sleeper Study***

[dirtdickens]

Berry is going to be a player from day one. Better than Reggie Nelson and everyother S people have called the next Ed Reed over the years. The only thing that could hurt his numbers is if he has to split time at Corner.

Nate Allen is starting already, what he lacks in being a hard ass he makes up for it in coverage. Ball hawking skills all day. Very close to Berry in terms of FF value.

Larry Asante could be someone to watch. Sucks in coverage and slow as hell, but he is a beast against the run and plays in a putrid Clev defense. Should rack up tackles.

I dont know what to make of Earl Thomas. His combine weight was 210, but he played at like 180lbs supposedly. If that is true he wont do much in FF.

Corner will be a crap shoot like every season.

[EHSTennis]

Berry is going to be a player from day one. Better than Reggie Nelson and everyother S people have called the next Ed Reed over the years. The only thing that could hurt his numbers is if he has to split time at Corner.

Nate Allen is starting already, what he lacks in being a hard ass he makes up for it in coverage. Ball hawking skills all day. Very close to Berry in terms of FF value.

Larry Asante could be someone to watch. Sucks in coverage and slow as hell, but he is a beast against the run and plays in a putrid Clev defense. Should rack up tackles.

I dont know what to make of Earl Thomas. His combine weight was 210, but he played at like 180lbs supposedly. If that is true he wont do much in FF.

Corner will be a crap shoot like every season.

lmao don't need to tell a jaguar fan that Reggie isn't exactly Ed Reed...

hmm perhaps I slept on nate allen a little bit. nothin wrong with being a safety on a defense with such a good front 7. should get plenty of INT's and pass defenses.

yeah i hear you on the corner crapshoot. drafted malcolm jenkins pretty high last year, now he may move to S.

[Docta]

If you're bringing up rookie RB's who could take over if the starter gets hurt, Gerhart and Tate could burst out also. Slaton is just coming back from an injury too.

[Nainoa]

If you're bringing up rookie RB's who could take over if the starter gets hurt, Gerhart and Tate could burst out also. Slaton is just coming back from an injury too.

Very true... AD is quietly an injury risk... He's had injury problems before, he plays like a wild yak. If he goes down Gerhart could play like a top 12 back. Even if AD stays healthy I suspect Gerhart is going to get a lot of the goal line and short yardage touches.


As for Tate. I think it's a foregon conclusion that by the end of this season, Tate will be the featured back for Houston. I was a big Slaton fan and all. But he just doesn't have the tools to be more than a situational back. Same with Arian Foster. In the end I think Slaton plays the "Chester Taylor" role to Tate's Adrian Peterson.

[dirtdickens]

tate is a massive sh!t head, dude is a problem. I wouldnt be so sold on him being the starter. He has some talent, but he isnt any better than Foster and Foster is bigger. Given the issues they had with GL scoring, gotta think the bigger guy will get some looks.

[EHSTennis]

Very true... AD is quietly an injury risk... He's had injury problems before, he plays like a wild yak. If he goes down Gerhart could play like a top 12 back. Even if AD stays healthy I suspect Gerhart is going to get a lot of the goal line and short yardage touches.


As for Tate. I think it's a foregon conclusion that by the end of this season, Tate will be the featured back for Houston. I was a big Slaton fan and all. But he just doesn't have the tools to be more than a situational back. Same with Arian Foster. In the end I think Slaton plays the "Chester Taylor" role to Tate's Adrian Peterson.

hmm very interesting. its crazy how far slaton fell. he had that one good season and all of a sudden he was considered a top 10 back, and now he is being considered nothing more than a situational/scat back type player.

[Nainoa]

hmm very interesting. its crazy how far slaton fell. he had that one good season and all of a sudden he was considered a top 10 back, and now he is being considered nothing more than a situational/scat back type player.

Well and when he was taken in the 7th round it was to play a Scat-Back and Kick Returner. When I drafted him on a whim with a last round nomination the whole room went off like a bunch of Owls!

At the same time Houston got into RB trouble (Their GM should be shot in the head for thinking Ahman Green and Chris Brown could handle the load!)

Slaton is a little bit like my Buddy's Grandam compared to the Tate of my F-150.

My Buddy said "Hey my Grandam has a hitch... I can tow the camper!"
It did just fine for 50-60 miles, until a big wind came up, made the camper sway and it dragged him into the ditch. Sure it did the job for a while... But it wasn't the perfect fit for the job and eventually it's weakness proved true and I had to pull everything out of the ditch with my truck!

[Nainoa]

tate is a massive sh!t head, dude is a problem. I wouldnt be so sold on him being the starter. He has some talent, but he isnt any better than Foster and Foster is bigger. Given the issues they had with GL scoring, gotta think the bigger guy will get some looks.

I guess I don't know anything about Tate's personality issues one way or the other?

I know that he comes with the exact skill set for Kubiak's style of offense. The first "Perfect Fit" Kubiak has had since he showed up in Houston. I think that's a huge temptation compared to Foster who did somewhere between Serviceable and Good during a RB carosel last year.

[dirtdickens]

I came across some numbers that were interesting regarding WRs

Only 3 WRs have an avg over 70% over the last 3 years, in games with at least 100- yards or 1 TD. Moss, AJ and Fitz.

In the top half of FF WRs only 3 improved their % or stayed at the same % from the previous season. S.Rice and suprisingly Brandon Marshall and Wes Welker.

[Nainoa]

I came across some numbers that were interesting regarding WRs

Only 3 WRs have an avg over 70% over the last 3 years, in games with at least 100- yards or 1 TD. Moss, AJ and Fitz.

In the top half of FF WRs only 3 improved their % or stayed at the same % from the previous season. S.Rice and suprisingly Brandon Marshall and Wes Welker.

Yeah Welker's value will be intersting this year. Especially in my league which gives you the chance to keep a guy for up to 3 year. I could theoretically draft Welker as my #4 with a cheap salary... Then Stash him till next year when he's 112% healthy!

[dirtdickens]

Yeah Welker's value will be intersting this year. Especially in my league which gives you the chance to keep a guy for up to 3 year. I could theoretically draft Welker as my #4 with a cheap salary... Then Stash him till next year when he's 112% healthy!

Yup and Moss is in a contract year. Given how the Pats are with money, I dont know that they bring him back unless he takes a huge cut.

[Nainoa]

Yup and Moss is in a contract year. Given how the Pats are with money, I dont know that they bring him back unless he takes a huge cut.

Moss and Brady... But I don't see anyone waiting in the wings.

Hopefully it means all 3 of them play their asses off!

[shockrock3]

Moss and Brady... But I don't see anyone waiting in the wings.

Hopefully it means all 3 of them play their asses off!

All the "good" vets always have something to prove in a contract year when the team fails to offer them a deal...kinda of their way of saying "I'll show you".

Last year I traded out of #2 upto #10 and grabbed Moss/Fitz back to back...best thing I ever did....

Only prob. with Moss is A) He'll face Revis 2x a year and Revis owns him B) If Welker starts on the PUP list he will get double teamed every snap C) He does have a history of taking plays off or going on routes half heartedly. Since I watch every Pats game faithfully I know what I'm talking about. Then again...Brady does look for him quite often in the Redzone...Welker gets most of the balls underneath. His season will depend on honestly if Welker starts on the PUP list, etc....he doesn't have that "seperation" anymore like he did when he was younger but I still see a very good year for him in the Pats offense.

[Nainoa]

All the "good" vets always have something to prove in a contract year when the team fails to offer them a deal...kinda of their way of saying "I'll show you".

Last year I traded out of #2 upto #10 and grabbed Moss/Fitz back to back...best thing I ever did....

Only prob. with Moss is A) He'll face Revis 2x a year and Revis owns him B) If Welker starts on the PUP list he will get double teamed every snap C) He does have a history of taking plays off or going on routes half heartedly. Since I watch every Pats game faithfully I know what I'm talking about. Then again...Brady does look for him quite often in the Redzone...Welker gets most of the balls underneath. His season will depend on honestly if Welker starts on the PUP list, etc....he doesn't have that "seperation" anymore like he did when he was younger but I still see a very good year for him in the Pats offense.

I agree that a PUP Welker for the first 6 weeks would hurt Moss... BUT I think Edelman would be a pretty big pick up, as he'll go underestimated by D's and he is basically Welker 2.0 in style.

[EHSTennis]

Moss and Brady... But I don't see anyone waiting in the wings.

Hopefully it means all 3 of them play their asses off!

heres hoping moss blows the fuk up this year. In my dynasty, I just traded flacco and rice for shaub, moss, and a 1st. keep in mind its a .5ppr. people in the league have ridiculed me for this, but honestly the dropoff from rice's youth to moss' age is MORE than made up for by the upgrade from flacco to shaub. both shaub and rice were 4th positional ranked in the scoring system last year. rice was 3rd but flacco was 14th

[shockrock3]

heres hoping moss blows the fuk up this year. In my dynasty, I just traded flacco and rice for shaub, moss, and a 1st. keep in mind its a .5ppr. people in the league have ridiculed me for this, but honestly the dropoff from rice's youth to moss' age is MORE than made up for by the upgrade from flacco to shaub. both shaub and rice were 4th positional ranked in the scoring system last year. rice was 3rd but flacco was 14th

Good trade...only problem I see is that the Texans have the hardest schedule this year in the NFL.

[Nainoa]

Good trade...only problem I see is that the Texans have the hardest schedule this year in the NFL.

I actually look for a hard schedule when it comes to a WR... Tough games mean that the team is passing more into the 4th quarter to catch up/comeback etc...

Then conversely I look for an easy schedule for RB's... So that their team is grinding out the clock with the running game more often in the 4th quarter.

[SpeedDemon9]

I agree that a PUP Welker for the first 6 weeks would hurt Moss... BUT I think Edelman would be a pretty big pick up, as he'll go underestimated by D's and he is basically Welker 2.0 in style.

Exactly this right here! Edelman should be a nice pick up this year.

[dirtdickens]

I actually look for a hard schedule when it comes to a WR... Tough games mean that the team is passing more into the 4th quarter to catch up/comeback etc...

Then conversely I look for an easy schedule for RB's... So that their team is grinding out the clock with the running game more often in the 4th quarter.

Strong advice. People overlook something simple like that and its huge.

[Nainoa]

Strong advice. People overlook something simple like that and its huge.

Yeah when it comes to schedule, I look for those two things... And I really look hard at their playoff schedule.

Another "Less important but still relevant" thing that I look at in regard to schedule is "Super Studs" (Elite players on big teams who tend to get benched during FF playoff time) Like a Peyton Manning etc...

I look at the FF playoffs... If they're playing a conference game, that's a real boost, because conference record matters a lot in seeding, so a coach isn't going to risk benching a start player until it's a blow out.

So take for example Rivers playing KC, SF and Cinci... If they have the Division synched up by half time of the KC game... He's more likely to be benched than say Romo who playing Philly, Washington & AZ. (With Philly again in wk 17)

*****

I had a season once that went undefeated up to the Fantasy Bowl and then lost the bowl to this "Stars getting Benched" garbage. So while I don't think it's "Make or Break" in your draft strategy, it's definitely a factor!

[dirtdickens]

Yup, try and load up with players facing KC, Rams or anyother god awful defense in weeks 14-16. I did it last year and won money for the 3rd consecutive time.

[Nainoa]

Another Sleeper to Study:

Nate Washington.

I think last year's hammy and ankle injuries, plus the titans 0-6 start, slumped Nate more than we realized.

By all accounts Kenny Brit had a horrible off season and has a sophomore slump looming.

I think defenses are going to load up against CJ this year, leaving the WR's in single coverage. And Vince Young is going to be asked to pass more to prove himself. I think all this adds up to Nate Washington becoming a Very serviceable #3, who if you have injury issues to your starters could play in some games like a #2

[dirtdickens]

Another Sleeper to Study:

Nate Washington.

I think last year's hammy and ankle injuries, plus the titans 0-6 start, slumped Nate more than we realized.

By all accounts Kenny Brit had a horrible off season and has a sophomore slump looming.

I think defenses are going to load up against CJ this year, leaving the WR's in single coverage. And Vince Young is going to be asked to pass more to prove himself. I think all this adds up to Nate Washington becoming a Very serviceable #3, who if you have injury issues to your starters could play in some games like a #2

Man, I broke the Kenny"Question Mark" Britt story already. Bad attitude and his play is lacking bad.

I like Nate Washington(I think you and I went back and forth on him last year) as much as anyone, but Vince Young and a heavy running attack dont work in favor of even being a sleeper. I think its a 30 ball season for Nate.

[Nainoa]

Man, I broke the Kenny"Question Mark" Britt story already. Bad attitude and his play is lacking bad.

I like Nate Washington(I think you and I went back and forth on him last year) as much as anyone, but Vince Young and a heavy running attack dont work in favor of even being a sleeper. I think its a 30 ball season for Nate.

See I'm thinking more like... 60 balls, 700 yards and 7 TD's

I think Jeff is going to hand the reigns to Vince more this year both to prove himself, as well as keep CJ from becoming a High Mileage back. I think when teams stack up too much against the run, it'll key up the pass.

But like most sleepers there's always a "What if" element of risk.

[Nainoa]

Here's another one to think about, (To take us away from the AFC south)

Mike Wallace in Pittsburgh.

Upside, he's taking the place of Santonio Holmes, with really no one to risk taking his spot now that Limas Sweed ripped an achillies, and Antwan Randle El is more of a situational player.

Wallace showed all the skills last year to be a high end #2 this year.

The down side question mark is the QB situation... Without Big Ben until week 6 or 7 the Steelers are probably going to lean a lot on the run. And then I'm sure Ben will be rusty when he comes back.

So Wallace has more Keeper Potential written all over him in '11 than break out potenital for '10?

[shockrock3]

Yeah when it comes to schedule, I look for those two things... And I really look hard at their playoff schedule.

Another "Less important but still relevant" thing that I look at in regard to schedule is "Super Studs" (Elite players on big teams who tend to get benched during FF playoff time) Like a Peyton Manning etc...

I look at the FF playoffs... If they're playing a conference game, that's a real boost, because conference record matters a lot in seeding, so a coach isn't going to risk benching a start player until it's a blow out.

So take for example Rivers playing KC, SF and Cinci... If they have the Division synched up by half time of the KC game... He's more likely to be benched than say Romo who playing Philly, Washington & AZ. (With Philly again in wk 17)

*****

I had a season once that went undefeated up to the Fantasy Bowl and then lost the bowl to this "Stars getting Benched" garbage. So while I don't think it's "Make or Break" in your draft strategy, it's definitely a factor!

Agree with you on looking at weeks 14-16 i.e. playoff matchups...but...I don't believe in "drafting" players based on just that (I'm assuming you don't also)....the biggest thing is "GETTING" to that point first.

I had 2 tough decisions to make in the championship game....bench Peyton because you knew he wasn't going to play the whole game and bench Ray Rice due to him playing the Steelers. I opted to start Favre (great move) and Beanie Wells over both guys who carried me the entire the year (Wells ended up with the same points in my league as Rice did that day). Team I went up against had Warner, CJ, M. Austin/B. Marshall, etc...loaded team. I lucked out that SJax decided not to play that day (after lineups locked) lol who was his other starter (though he didn't have anyone on the bench who would have got him enough points to beat me).

That being said...I def. look at weeks 14-16 but I just will not draft a "good" guy based on playoffs matchups alone, get to that point first...then that's when instincts come in lol.

Talking about sleepers...people such as Knox/Britt/Washington, etc...they scare me, scare me alot. Personally, I'd wouldn't draft any of the above just for the fact that it would make my stomach turn knowing that any of them could pull a 2 rec 14 yrd day not to mention the fact that none of the above should ever be starters in fantasy football. Alot of guys that have been talked about are essentially 1 week fill in's if your starting offensive player gets hurt. WR is such a crapshoot...I saw it alot last year, so many "guys that were going to have huge weeks" end up with the 2 rec 14 yrd day and back to the waiver wire where they belong.

I hear what your saying Nainoa...trying to predict sleepers is essentially a crapshoot, it's nice to bag one. I mean, did anyone "really" see Ray Rice breaking out last year? Only reason I drafted him (12th round I believe) is because he was going to get an "opportunity" to start and my strategy has always been to load up on as many RB's as possible. I lucked out. This year is going to be very tough.

Always nice to have good conversation with yourself, you can tell your a diehard just like myself ha.

[Nainoa]

Agree with you on looking at weeks 14-16 i.e. playoff matchups...but...I don't believe in "drafting" players based on just that (I'm assuming you don't also)....the biggest thing is "GETTING" to that point first.

I had 2 tough decisions to make in the championship game....bench Peyton because you knew he wasn't going to play the whole game and bench Ray Rice due to him playing the Steelers. I opted to start Favre (great move) and Beanie Wells over both guys who carried me the entire the year (Wells ended up with the same points in my league as Rice did that day). Team I went up against had Warner, CJ, M. Austin/B. Marshall, etc...loaded team. I lucked out that SJax decided not to play that day (after lineups locked) lol who was his other starter (though he didn't have anyone on the bench who would have got him enough points to beat me).

That being said...I def. look at weeks 14-16 but I just will not draft a "good" guy based on playoffs matchups alone, get to that point first...then that's when instincts come in lol.

Talking about sleepers...people such as Knox/Britt/Washington, etc...they scare me, scare me alot. Personally, I'd wouldn't draft any of the above just for the fact that it would make my stomach turn knowing that any of them could pull a 2 rec 14 yrd day not to mention the fact that none of the above should ever be starters in fantasy football. Alot of guys that have been talked about are essentially 1 week fill in's if your starting offensive player gets hurt. WR is such a crapshoot...I saw it alot last year, so many "guys that were going to have huge weeks" end up with the 2 rec 14 yrd day and back to the waiver wire where they belong.

I hear what your saying Nainoa...trying to predict sleepers is essentially a crapshoot, it's nice to bag one. I mean, did anyone "really" see Ray Rice breaking out last year? Only reason I drafted him (12th round I believe) is because he was going to get an "opportunity" to start and my strategy has always been to load up on as many RB's as possible. I lucked out. This year is going to be very tough.

Always nice to have good conversation with yourself, you can tell your a diehard just like myself ha.

Well... You don't draft "Sleepers" to be your #2 WR either... You Draft them as a #4 or a #3. Last year when Megatron got hurt the "Gamble" I took on Miles Austin paid off HUGE... And he was my #5 WR!

When Cooley went down last year... I was sure glad to have Vernon Davis on staff!

Or in '08 when I drafted Slaton, everyone in the room went off like a bunch of Owls saying "Who?"

And I laughed all the way to the Fantasy Bowl.

So the draft and sleepers is JUST like life. If you play scared and only look for sure bets... The only thing you tend to end up with is falling short. Sometimes you gotta take some smart risks if you really want to win the big cheese.

[EHSTennis]

Agree with you on looking at weeks 14-16 i.e. playoff matchups...but...I don't believe in "drafting" players based on just that (I'm assuming you don't also)....the biggest thing is "GETTING" to that point first.

I had 2 tough decisions to make in the championship game....bench Peyton because you knew he wasn't going to play the whole game and bench Ray Rice due to him playing the Steelers. I opted to start Favre (great move) and Beanie Wells over both guys who carried me the entire the year (Wells ended up with the same points in my league as Rice did that day). Team I went up against had Warner, CJ, M. Austin/B. Marshall, etc...loaded team. I lucked out that SJax decided not to play that day (after lineups locked) lol who was his other starter (though he didn't have anyone on the bench who would have got him enough points to beat me).

That being said...I def. look at weeks 14-16 but I just will not draft a "good" guy based on playoffs matchups alone, get to that point first...then that's when instincts come in lol.

Talking about sleepers...people such as Knox/Britt/Washington, etc...they scare me, scare me alot. Personally, I'd wouldn't draft any of the above just for the fact that it would make my stomach turn knowing that any of them could pull a 2 rec 14 yrd day not to mention the fact that none of the above should ever be starters in fantasy football. Alot of guys that have been talked about are essentially 1 week fill in's if your starting offensive player gets hurt. WR is such a crapshoot...I saw it alot last year, so many "guys that were going to have huge weeks" end up with the 2 rec 14 yrd day and back to the waiver wire where they belong.

I hear what your saying Nainoa...trying to predict sleepers is essentially a crapshoot, it's nice to bag one. I mean, did anyone "really" see Ray Rice breaking out last year? Only reason I drafted him (12th round I believe) is because he was going to get an "opportunity" to start and my strategy has always been to load up on as many RB's as possible. I lucked out. This year is going to be very tough.

Always nice to have good conversation with yourself, you can tell your a diehard just like myself ha.

Actually, my main factor in drafting (i am in like 3 keeper dynasty leagues, one of which I really care about, check everyday, etc) is the "sleeper potential". People scratched their heads when I picked him first round 2 years ago. After living with the servicable production 2 years ago I kept him and lo and behold, he explodes to the #3 RB in the scoring system. Then I just now sold him for Moss, Shaub, and a 1st (I also had to give up Flacco). Also did the same thing with Desean Jackson. Picked him like 3rd round same draft I drafted Rice. Now he is the #1 WR in the scoring system.

That being said, my #1 pick last year was Donald Brown, and I had to deal with almost NO production out of him. Now he may start to get carries this year, but it will be another year or 2 IMO before he is fantasy relevant. Now, I still made it to the league championship game last year, but maybe if I had picked a solid veteran in the first round like most other teams did, then who knows maybe I could have won. So, if you are going to choose to go the young sleeper strategy, you have to be patient and have faith in your draft philosophy, even if it doesn't pay immediate dividends.

Also, in whatever draft philosophy you choose, you need to commit to it in every roster move you do. For instance, my philosophy is to build a roster full of young, ascending players. Every draft pick and every trade, I am trying to get younger and pick up more potential. And if I can't do that, then at least recoup MORE than enough value to make up for the dropoff of youth to age (for instance my last trade). If you kind of half-heartedly commit to your draft and trade strategy (or don't have one at all), you are left with a roster with no direction and with players peaking all at different times.

[dirtdickens]

I wish I could go back in time and find where ever in that massive thread I talked about Mike Wallace and Nate washington, because I drafted or got both at the start of the year.

Not feeling either one of them this year.
Wallace: The reason I liked him was because he was a burner. The only games he got anything were when it was close and The Steelers had to chuck a few deep in order to break the game open or keep the defense honest. The year before that Nate Washington played that role and before that it was Holmes. This year they dont have the WR threats to open up the deep ball and Big Ben/Offensive Line are going to be hell for nothing more than a long ball guy.

And in regards to drafting for weeks 14-16. I take it into heavy consideration. I will try to find the FF thread from last year. I use strength of schedule heavily and it always works for me, in fact last year I explained why I drafted the people I did and how it all worked out.

[jason_bh]

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