When is the great depression coming?

[Stizzel]

age 12

stopped reading

This

[DCarruso]

Fed can't even hold down rates with QE.

Unemployment, the only reason it was under 600k last month was government hiring and birth/death model.

How's California doing? If on it's on it's the 8th largest economy in the world.

GM declaring bankruptcy today, economy must be doing great.

How are banks CC deliquencies doing?

Greenshoots!! Think greenshoots, you ingrate!!

[Duckenheimer]

I had this predicted (not on original research, naturally ), early last year for the US, and since then depression has already hit in Ireland (not to mention East Asia, Eastern Europe, and heading that way in the likes of Germany - all economies down 10%+ and not at bottom. )

We've in Ireland shrank at over 28% annual rate for the last two quarters and there is no end in sight.

I have gone into a lot of detail on other threads, don't have the time now but will return later and give a proper detailed argument.

Sick as you may be of doomsdayers, but other people are quite understandably sick of the paradise proclaimers. Why not stop being sick of people for being on a side of the talk you disagree with, considering not all of them are in the same boat as anybody you're justifiably mad at, and keep discussion on the discussion?

You can disagree all you want, but you have no valid reason to be angry at me for my views on what I think may happen the US economy.

Give it a break with all the negative economic news.

The presence of some positive indicators are not a valid, logical reason to give it a break with the negative economic news. So sorry, nah.

[NorthernRaZ]

bumping for the lulz. I remained optimistic on the economy and invested wisely in January. I'm up 125% on my portfolio currently. I was laughed at here as everyone was preparing either for the Great Depression or the Summer Stock Market Crash of '09.

Bad Job Dave Men


DOW will head to 14,000 in 24 months, and I'm loving it.

[b3rtstare]

DOW will head to 14,000 in 24 months, and I'm loving it.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA


Was that a serious statement? We haven't even gotten to the worse months of the year yet. September and October have traditionally always been bad for th stock market. I suggest you get off that hopium b4 you get burned.

[frankenstein]

bumping for the lulz. I remained optimistic on the economy and invested wisely in January. I'm up 125% on my portfolio currently. I was laughed at here as everyone was preparing either for the Great Depression or the Summer Stock Market Crash of '09.

Bad Job Dave Men


DOW will head to 14,000 in 24 months, and I'm loving it.

I must admit I was a bit of a doomsdayer last year and the beginning of this year. But like I said when this thread was started, another great depression is not coming. Things will likely be stagnant for awhile and then will start to grow again. Long term there is of course worry because of entitlements that are set to drown the economy, but that's longer term than the topic of this thread. Congrats on your portfolio. I should have listened to a broker friend of mine who told me he was doubling down on FAS back in March. Oh how much better off I'd be right now if I had followed suit.

[NorthernRaZ]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA


Was that a serious statement? We haven't even gotten to the worse months of the year yet. September and October have traditionally always been bad for th stock market. I suggest you get off that hopium b4 you get burned.

LOL

I'm mostly directing that post at you. So far you've stated:

-Great depression part 2 headed our way in February
-DOW will hit 4,000
-Stock market will crash in May, then after it didn't happen you changed your prediction to "summer"
-You were enamored by this thread http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showth...hp?t=117767161 predicting a market collapse between July and mid-August


You're the largest fraud on the R/P category. Always predicting economic doom and gloom with little or no facts or data. If I listened to you, I would have lost out on thousands of dollars of profit right now.

BRB listening to a 20 year old kid obsessed with conspiracy theories and posting on the misc for economic predicting and financial advice. When the stock market continues its assent after a brief resting period, you'll say "the worse is still coming-save all your money under your bed!"


Unemployment just dipped to 9.4%. Didn't you once state that unemployment would hit 20%?

[tts0lid]

I bought a bunch of Ford and AIG stock last november.. The Ford has almost quadrupled and the AIG has fallen by half (and reverse split). Still up 100% since november though. If I had more $ available I'd be investing more right now, in a few other companies or maybe just index funds.

I'm afraid to look at my 401K though lol.

[NorthernRaZ]

I bought a bunch of Ford and AIG stock last november.. The Ford has almost quadrupled and the AIG has fallen by half (and reverse split). Still up 100% since november though. If I had more $ available I'd be investing more right now, in a few other companies or maybe just index funds.

I'm afraid to look at my 401K though lol.

Yeah, Ford has been a major player for my portfolio. I'll be investing another thousand in them due to the success in the Cash for Clunkers program. The value will likely double after their quarterly earning report debuts.

[tts0lid]

Yeah, Ford has been a major player for my portfolio. I'll be investing another thousand in them due to the success in the Cash for Clunkers program. The value will likely double after their quarterly earning report debuts.

I don't know about double, but the #1 new car bought under Cash for Clunkers was the Ford Focus, so I'm sure it will help!

[b3rtstare]

LOL

I'm mostly directing that post at you. So far you've stated:

-Great depression part 2 headed our way in February
-DOW will hit 4,000
-Stock market will crash in May, then after it didn't happen you changed your prediction to "summer"
-You were enamored by this thread http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showth...hp?t=117767161 predicting a market collapse between July and mid-August


You're the largest fraud on the R/P category. Always predicting economic doom and gloom with little or no facts or data. If I listened to you, I would have lost out on thousands of dollars of profit right now.

BRB listening to a 20 year old kid obsessed with conspiracy theories and posting on the misc for economic predicting and financial advice. When the stock market continues its assent after a brief resting period, you'll say "the worse is still coming-save all your money under your bed!"


Unemployment just dipped to 9.4%. Didn't you once state that unemployment would hit 20%?

1.) we are already in a depression

2.) I had no way of knowing there would be a bear rally.

3.) the stock market is rigged. There are
computer programs that companies like Goldman sachs have as well as the Plunge protection team that is used to rigged the market. Here is some real news:

http://market-ticker.org/archives/13...Uncovered.html

Federal Reserve is monetizing the debt. Treasury sales are failing miserably right now, but it's being covered up for obvious reasons. All I'm saying is that b4 u make predictions of Dow 14,000, wait and see what happens in September and October just to make sure this is a real rally and not a bear rally.

[Kane_89]

1.) we are already in a depression

in case you havent read the news today.

Unemployment dropped for the first time in 15 months

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...d=aGSIJl69yjZI

unemployment does not drop in a depression.

Its sad that u still listen to Alex Jones, even after he fails.

[trailwarrior]

bumping for the lulz. I remained optimistic on the economy and invested wisely in January. I'm up 125% on my portfolio currently. I was laughed at here as everyone was preparing either for the Great Depression or the Summer Stock Market Crash of '09.

Bad Job Dave Men


DOW will head to 14,000 in 24 months, and I'm loving it.

In other words you believe a healthy economy is one in which we have a Federal Reserve printing as much money as it can and a government bailing out failing businesses.



Happy Days Aren't Here Again
By Peter Schiff
July 31, 2009

Have you heard the great news? The recession is over! It's true; I saw it on TV. Why fret about growing unemployment lines when banks are paying big-time bonuses again?

Proof of the turn was apparently revealed by the 2nd quarter GDP figures that showed that the economy declined by only 1%. After four consecutive quarters of negative GDP, the green shoots now assume that growth will resume over the summer. But before we pop the corks, it may be worthwhile to ask, 'what really has changed, and what is responsible for our new lease on life?'

In truth, because of the continued profligacy of the government and Federal Reserve, the imbalances that caused the current recession have actually worsened. We are now in an even deeper hole than when the crisis began. Rather than wrapping up a recession, we are actually sinking into a depression. If things look better now, it's just because we are in the eye of the storm.

more...



Another Bottom for Stocks Coming
Jim Roggers on CNBC
May 20, 2009

The stock market may hit new lows this year or the next as the current rally has been largely caused by the money printed by central banks and fundamental problems remain unsolved, legendary investor Jim Rogers told CNBC Wednesday.

His views echo those of renowned bear Marc Faber, who told CNBC last week that the rises in share prices did not mean the world was embarking on a path of sustainable economic growth.

"I'm not buying shares if that's what you mean. Not at all," Rogers told "Squawk Box Asia."

"The bottom will probably come later this year, next year, who knows when," he added.

Governments have not solved the essential problems that caused the crisis but instead they "flooded the world with money," according to Rogers. Trying to solve the problem of too much consumption and too much debt with more consumption "defies belief" and will not work, he said.

more...



Now we have Mark Kollar just the other day calling for DOW $2800; "if you look at an overlay of 1930 versus where we are now in a bear market recovery it's almost a perfect correlation"





In 1930 the DOW rallied 50% before falling another 85% over the following 1-1/2 years...

09/14/1929 - 05/12/1932 DOW Jones Industrials




Perhaps I may not be as bearish as Mark Kollar, but I must agree with these gentlemen when they ask "What's changed over the past 2 years?" What we have is the government going even deeper in debt and the Fed printing even more money which is merely more of what they were doing leading into this crisis. Then consider that instead of investing in repairing the seriously deteriorating infrastructures of this country, the money has gone toward bailing out bad businesses which in a healthy economy you want to have fail. I don't see how any of this can lead to a healthier economy, but I can see an economy and a market that goes much lower than what we have seen.

[Morbid_Mind]

unemployment does not drop in a depression.

Would you like to try again?

US in the "Great Depression"


Japan in the "Lost Decade"
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Et4TQ-a0gG...ment_chart.png

[trailwarrior]

US in the "Great Depression"

Interesting correlation here as well...how the unemployment rate was still under 10% when the market rallied 50% in 1930

[BalloonKnot]

Trillions of dollars have been pumped into the economy in this country in less than twelve months.

Q1 GDP decreased 6.4%
Q2 GDP decreased 1.0% (ex stimulus => -8%)

We are in a depression but the difference is more then 1 out of 3 were employed in the agriculture industry. Now less than 3 out of 10 are employed in agriculture. Food is much cheaper today than it was in the 1930s. Without central bank intervention we would be in a great depression.

The U6 number is much more important than the U3 number on BLS's umemployment report.

U6 included unemployed, unemployed 'not looking' (cannot collect), and working part time but want full time employment.

This is at the very lease the 'Great Recession'. We will double dip when the gov't stimulus runs out and it will.

[BalloonKnot]

Unemployment just dipped to 9.4%. Didn't you once state that unemployment would hit 20%?

The U3 statistic that the BLS publishes reflect the percentage of unemployed and still collecting.

The number dropped because unemployement benefits ran out not because they got jobs.

You do realize this don't you?

[dizi24]

in case you havent read the news today.

Unemployment dropped for the first time in 15 months

Wrong, the government published unemployment rate went down. Unemployment went up.

[dizi24]

http://market-ticker.org/archives/13...Uncovered.html

Federal Reserve is monetizing the debt. Treasury sales are failing miserably right now, but it's being covered up for obvious reasons. All I'm saying is that b4 u make predictions of Dow 14,000, wait and see what happens in September and October just to make sure this is a real rally and not a bear rally.

This should be in the news more.

For the record, I don't believe this is him "monetizing the debt." Technically that's what he did by buying treasury bonds, but I don't think this is why he bought them. The whole thing looks like back door dealings from the Fed where they told people to buy treasury 7 year bonds so that consumer confidence didn't crash again after the disaster of the 5 year treasury bonds.

Either way, it's more shadiness from the Fed. I've been trying to find some way to forward this to Alan Grayson to see if he could bring it up in his next meeting with Bernanke.

[NYY]

1.) we are already in a depression

2.) I had no way of knowing there would be a bear rally.

3.) the stock market is rigged. There are
computer programs that companies like Goldman sachs have as well as the Plunge protection team that is used to rigged the market. Here is some real news:

http://market-ticker.org/archives/13...Uncovered.html

Federal Reserve is monetizing the debt. Treasury sales are failing miserably right now, but it's being covered up for obvious reasons. All I'm saying is that b4 u make predictions of Dow 14,000, wait and see what happens in September and October just to make sure this is a real rally and not a bear rally.

Agreed,

I wouldn't say we're out of the woods yet....

[NorthernRaZ]

1.)
3.) the stock market is rigged. There are
computer programs that companies like Goldman sachs have as well as the Plunge protection team that is used to rigged the market. Here is some real news:

http://market-ticker.org/archives/13...Uncovered.html

Federal Reserve is monetizing the debt. Treasury sales are failing miserably right now, but it's being covered up for obvious reasons. All I'm saying is that b4 u make predictions of Dow 14,000, wait and see what happens in September and October just to make sure this is a real rally and not a bear rally.

If the stock market is 'rigged', then why did everyone here use it against those optimistic about the economy back in January through March? Since the economy has rebounded, now the stock market it 'rigged'? Okay..

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124943252224006411.html
Looks like the Chinese are planning to purchase much more of the U.S. debt.

Demand for TIPS auctions this year has been robust, with last week's $6 billion reopening of 20-year TIPS garnering the highest demand in two years.

[NorthernRaZ]

Wrong, the government published unemployment rate went down. Unemployment went up.

Let me guess - the government 'rigged' the number to a more positive position?

[BalloonKnot]

Wrong, the government published unemployment rate went down. Unemployment went up.

^^^^ this as the U6 went down which tells me that the BLS preliminary numbers will be revised two months from now or auto workers went back to work for now. The change in the U6 number and employment to population ratio is much more important. The gov't like the U3 number because people drop off the unemployment rolls. We can thank Rubin and Clinton for that slight of hand.

[tts0lid]

Aren't we all supposed to be eating stock-piled can beans by now? And shooting looters? And living under martial law?

Or is that later on in the recession. (I want to mark my calandar)

[Morbid_Mind]

Interesting correlation here as well...how the unemployment rate was still under 10% when the market rallied 50% in 1930

But the stock market is up, everything is fine....

Look at how the Nikkei performed; many, many rallies

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-cont...nikkei-225.png
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploa...ilty101508.png

But I'm sure this is different...

[BalloonKnot]

Aren't we all supposed to be eating stock-piled can beans by now? And shooting looters? And living under martial law?

Or is that later on in the recession. (I want to mark my calandar)

Food is a much different commodity today.

Almost two in three worked in agriculture in the 1930s while less than three in ten work in agriculture. The gov't pays farmers to not produce crops to keep prices from crashing. Food will not be the problem. Health care will be the problem. Go to and ER and tell me how it is... hospitals are closing and ERs are being over run with patients because they do not have insurance and cannot go to the doctor.

The market is propped up my trillions of dollars the Fed flooded or financial system. The dollar will rally and commodities and the market will crash within the next twelve months.

[Armando777]

Recession? Depression?
Its not much on the news anymore, how people are being foreclosed and how autos and property being repossessed? Huh?

Ask creditors and collections if there is a recession? Ask the fed govt. if there is a recession (irrs). These vultures absolutely do not care if you are in the street or if you have a plate of food in front of you. Is this the way of the American dream. To profit on the misery of many? Not caring if you neighbor or friend/family is out on the streets?

We will never reach the Utopia. When ppl are put in jail for taking Food without paying, because they are hungry.

[dizi24]

The market is propped up my trillions of dollars the Fed flooded or financial system. The dollar will rally and commodities and the market will crash within the next twelve months.

Why do you say that dollar will rally? That doesn't make sense.

There's a reason all of our bond auctions suck now.

[BalloonKnot]

Why do you say that dollar will rally? That doesn't make sense.

There's a reason all of our bond auctions suck now.

The markets and commodities are inversely related to the USD while commodities and equity markets are horribly over valued through speculation with government handouts to the financial sector. When everyone gets spooked (because they will) they will rush back to the dollar.

This is a technical move not a fundamental move.

The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Everyone likes to bash the USD but currencies are all reletive. The US gov't likes to say they want the Chinese Renminbi to float but the Renminbi will not float as no fiat (all currency is fiat) currency floats. All fiat currency sink at varying rates to zero.

For all the USD bears out there...please look as this article and give me answers to my bulleted questions below:

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/22892

Please tell me the names of the currencies the dollar will decline against and give me the relative details of these countries fundamentals:

- Sovereign debt rations
- External debt ratios
- Bank capitalization ratios

These rations should be compared to the USA's ratios...

[dizi24]

The markets and commodities are inversely related to the USD while commodities and equity markets are horribly over valued through speculation with government handouts to the financial sector. When everyone gets spooked (because they will) they will rush back to the dollar.

Except it hasn't been the government handouts to the financial sector which are scaring people away from the dollar. It was the monetary expansion that is scaring people away from the dollar. The real effects of monetary expansion, as in higher prices, have not yet occurred because all the monetary expansion is being held in bank reserves.

Unless there is a monetary contraction, there will be a significant loss of value in the American dollar. The only reason gold is lagging behind the monetary supply so much right now is because, as I mentioned, all the money is being held in bank reserves.

The future of the American dollar is very weak. That is I bet TIPS and I-Bonds will be more popular in the months ahead

Please tell me the names of the currencies the dollar will decline against and give me the relative details of these countries fundamentals:

Easy. Gold.

(all currency is fiat)

No it's not.