How many USA Coronavirus deaths by 5/1?

[TrinnieBuu]

That's as believable as anything else you say, I guess (i.e. Nope).

Back to this thread, reporting on the daily results seems to be dependant on the time of day. As of now, 4/8 and earlier, it's 13,000, which is not a big jump from yesterday. Hopefully this is the start of a slowing-down trend and less and less people fall to this disease.

Looking above, some people are questioning the reasoning of counting anyone who dies of any reason as coronavirus, if they test positive to it.

Yes, if someone falls down a flight of stairs and breaks their neck while infected that's one thing, but someone with cancer or other problems - part of the way this disease seems to work is by wearing down your immune system, leaving you vulnerable to pneumonia or other diseases. It might not be as questionable or bad a policy as it comes off as initially. Probably most people dying while infected was directly because of the coronavirus is my guess here.

Moving along, I was talking with someone today in the health industry. Seems like there are now tests to see if people have previously had this, they're short in supply now, but once that opens up I will be very curious to see if more people than initially estimated already had this and just hadn't realized it (not needing ER care, chalking it up to cold/flu, symptoms so mild they hardly knew, etc)

If it turns out a lot of people have it and got through it, which will drop the death percentage and also mean there are more people than estimated who have antibodies/immunity, that might start to change some minds about how locked down some people are with quarantining - particularly if the numbers start stabilizing or even dropping.

I don’t know about the rest of the country. But in NYC it’s actually the opposite. Spike in at home deaths compared to same period of previous years. None have been tested or counted as part of the NYC COVID fatalities. We’re talking 2.2k at home fatalities in 2 weeks vs 453 same period last year.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...ny-as-covid-19

[PlanoLifter]

I'm just saying that simply dying WITH it is not accurate.

If somebody with lung cancer dies of flu, is that counted as a flu death or a cancer death?

You're saying it's inaccurate which means you must have an idea of what the accurate way is. So what is the accurate way? How would you classify a death as either C-19 or not C-19? Or do you not have an answer to the question?

In the case of your example I would, not being a doctor, classify it as a flu related death if the patient would have been alive but for the fact they the patient got sick with the flu and died because of that.

[ghostfacedup]

Washington U model downgraded again to 60k deaths. Wincel can’t take it!

What? Isn't that less than the flu was last year?

[JoshSP1985]

What? Isn't that less than the flu was last year?

Theoretically based on estimates yes but we also don't attempt to battle the flu each year by destroying the economy.

I still hold the position that this thing is about as dangerous as the flu.

Think about how many people the flu kills and that's with vaccination and with herd immunity. A new virus entering the global sphere will have a bad year and then just kind of fold into the normal ebb and flow in following years.

I think we should have done some public initiatives to fight a new virus being added to the global goulash if you will such as canceling large entertainment events/sporting and even closing schools, and advocating distancing/hygiene as best you can but the shelter in place orders affecting non essential businesses was the wrong move in my opinion.

[Blasting]

What? Isn't that less than the flu was last year?

No, but it’s not far off. But that is only by August 4th so it doesn’t include rest of the year, it doesn’t include maybe earlier in this year before the virus arrived in America and obviously we don’t quarantine the entire country during flu season so we’ve experienced fewer deaths because of the social distancing.

It’s still not “just the flu bro” even if we get close to the death toll this model shows.

[ghostfacedup]

Theoretically based on estimates yes but we also don't attempt to battle the flu each year by destroying the economy.

I still hold the position that this thing is about as dangerous as the flu.

Think about how many people the flu kills and that's with vaccination and with herd immunity. A new virus entering the global sphere will have a bad year and then just kind of fold into the normal ebb and flow in following years.

I think we should have done some public initiatives to fight a new virus being added to the global goulash if you will such as canceling large entertainment events/sporting and even closing schools, and advocating distancing/hygiene as best you can but the shelter in place orders affecting non essential businesses was the wrong move in my opinion.

I disagree, mainly because I live in CA and we are seeing how well SIP has worked over here. We have crappy people all over the place, but somehow managed to avoid huge spikes. It's all about the hospital system.

Trump has prepared us for future pandemics with this, and we will no longer rely on China. There is a chance this whole ordeal will help us in the long run.

[adamsteve14]

No, but it’s not far off. But that is only by August 4th so it doesn’t include rest of the year, it doesn’t include maybe earlier in this year before the virus arrived in America and obviously we don’t quarantine the entire country during flu season so we’ve experienced fewer deaths because of the social distancing.

It’s still not “just the flu bro” even if we get close to the death toll this model shows.

2017-2018 flu season claimed 61k lives. It isn’t the flu, but it isn’t Ebola either. The case for crashing the economy and destroying people’s livelihoods is becoming less convincing each day. We did the right thing at the start, but the time to get back to normal is approaching. If we could get antibody testing done large-scale, we could kore forward with more confidence.

[GaloisTheory]

What? Isn't that less than the flu was last year?

You're not comparing the same things. When the CDC takes the final covid-19 and runs it through their model that use to estimate flu deaths, it'll jump up substantially. This is just reported deaths and doesn't include the excess mortality and deaths at home, attributable deaths, etc... that they use to calculate the final toll. The flu deaths they report includes all of those estimates already.

[JoshSP1985]

I disagree, mainly because I live in CA and we are seeing how well SIP has worked over here. We have crappy people all over the place, but somehow managed to avoid huge spikes. It's all about the hospital system.

Trump has prepared us for future pandemics with this, and we will no longer rely on China. There is a chance this whole ordeal will help us in the long run.

Maybe, there are a lot of factors.

Amount of Chinese travel to NY vs LA during the weeks leading up to the spikes
Amount of high density public transit in LA vs NY
Weather
etc

I'm not saying you're wrong but I'm not saying what you've said is a definitive fact either.

[misccancer]

just the flu crew trying to promote their bullchit

l m a o

keep banning me, limpdick

it won't change the fact that your orange master is wrong

[JUSA]

It’s still not “just the flu bro” even if we get close to the death toll this model shows.

This thing also shut everyone down for the most part. Schools closed, most people respecting social distancing, lots of people home from work, almost nobody in crowds, etc... so, whatever #s we have, it will have spread a lot less due to this.

[SillieBazzillie]

Washington U model downgraded again to 60k deaths. Wincel can’t take it!

That'd be good news but you have to assume that no more hotspots show up. Like in Florida.

Social distancing does seem to be working.

[Blasting]

just the flu crew trying to promote their bullchit

l m a o

keep banning me, limpdick

it won't change the fact that your orange master is wrong

“Washington University: ‘it’s just the flu bro’” -wincel

[Dave22reborn]

UK-7,097
Spain-14,673
Italy-17,669
France-10,869





China-3,333

Orange Man Bad?

[lmaaaaaaaaooo]

“Washington University: ‘it’s just the flu bro’” -wincel

we'll see on may 1 boyo

[Blasting]

we'll see on may 1 boyo

It’s April 8th. Do you wish to revise your estimate?

[Blasting]

Maaaaybe. Not sure. I'm still sticking with my over 300k guess. I have a feeling people aren't taking shelter in place srsly. But I'll trust their estimates for now. If I'm wrong, great. I just get the feeling this is like those population estimates where they keep hoping it flattens out, but it flattens out way later than they think...

Right now, we are actually well on pace to be 100-200k even if their model estimates 60k. Plus, nobody ever mentions the uncertainty bounds.

Holy sh*t. You’re joking, right??? People have been making this point the whole time.

Some of that uncertainty is what I as well as other non doom and gloomers have mentioned. Your idea of uncertainty is some crazy outbreak or a COVID strain gets stronger, etc.

On the other side there is the uncertainty of a possible breakthrough in a cure or the heat destroying the virus or the virus losing a lot of strength over time, etc.

Point is that I’ve made this argument before to you. That there is so much uncertainty. But you’re a fukking clown that suggested only you and Bill Gates knew the truth. We don’t know nearly enough about what’s to come. Just quit pretending you do. This is why you’re a pseudo-intellectual.

[|ceman]

I'm just saying that simply dying WITH it is not accurate.

If somebody with lung cancer dies of flu, is that counted as a flu death or a cancer death?

maybe we should trust the medical professionals in determining cause of death instead of trusting chaunce54? that sounds reasonable to me.

I still hold the position that this thing is about as dangerous as the flu.

oh joshy, you're so predictable, it's comically naive. you are quite skilled at holding ignorant positions that run contrary to facts

“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'”
― Isaac Asimov

[|ceman]

No I didn't. I always said it was a guess and gave reasons to support my guess (which was back when POTUS was talking about letting people be out by easter). The people arguing the growth was linear were being retarded, and I called them out on it. Bill Gates said a lot of stuff that made sense. Nobody knows how many deaths there will actually be.

Wait until May 1 to declare victory.

If I'm a pseudo intellectual, why do you care so much what I think? Just assume I'm a lunatic and go about your life. lmao

wincel dude, why not take a break until may 1. whether you're going to be right or wrong, debating it now serves no useful purpose and continuing to make fake accounts is just a really juvenile look. you're destroying any credibility you hope to have with each new account you create.

[JoshSP1985]

oh joshy, you're so predictable, it's comically naive. you are quite skilled at holding ignorant positions that run contrary to facts

Estimates put CV deaths at 500k w/o mitigation, flu deaths would be right there as well without mitigation. We still have tens of thousands of deaths in the US with vaccination and with herd immunity. Without those existing dampers flu deaths would be drastically higher than they are currently. It's not a stretch to think that the given the same environment that the flu and cv would kill a similar amount of people.

Today CV is more dangerous absolutely, my point was in following seasons it may end up killing even less people seasonally than the flu.

[|ceman]

And I really am that petty and juvenile.

life's more enjoyable if you're not. it's not worth it, dude.

you'll be far happier if you went for a walk and listened to an upbeat spotify playlist than creating new accounts to bypass a ban on a dying fitness forum.

[JoshSP1985]

That 500k was for the UK LOL. It was 1-2 M for US.

And yes, without herd immunity, flu would be absolutely soul crushing. We already went through that. It was called the Spanish flu.

That's all I was saying and I tried to add additional context to my post to keep people from thinking I was saying that covid this year was going to be as bad as the flu this year however that level of comprehension wasn't attainable by some.

[JoshSP1985]

I went for a 5 mi walk yesterday and *******s were everywhere not following the 6 ft rule. MOTHERFUKERS

Doesn't really apply within households.

[Jayarbie]

By August 4th

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill...y-august%3famp

That's on the low end of what I would expect, but I guess not too unreasonable. It's probably going to be 50,000 by 5/1, and I'd personally guess near 65,000 by June 1, but it's going to be slowing at that point, too, so I'd think 70-75,000 by Aug 4? There will likely be another mini-spike near the end of the year, so by the time the vaccine is ready next spring, I'd be surprised if we're not over 100k.

The key to ending all of the restrictions is going to be testing. There needs to be widespread antibody testing to determine how many people have actually been exposed so far (because it's way more than 400k, but how much - 3x, 5x, 10x?). There also needs to be an ability to control breakouts through quarantining and contact tracing, but to do that, you have to start with a very low number of infections in the public, and you have to have extensive on-demand testing to catch all cases very early (I mean, like go to any CVS and get tested for free and get an immediate result level of on-demand testing) and then also test everyone who that person came in contact with very quickly. Quarantine and contact tracing is what worked in SK, and it's what was tried here at first, but when they started actually testing for it, it quickly became apparent that there were millions of cases in the country already and not nearly the testing capability we needed to contain it. Hopefully, all this social distancing will reduce the number of community spread infections to a manageable number, but we still need to significantly ramp up the testing capabilities (I've seen stuff in the works, but the quarantine can't really be lifted until it's in mass production and rolled out).

[Jayarbie]

A lot of ppl revised their estimates simply because for a few days recently, the number of new cases dropped. However, yesterday, it shot right back up. Could just be noise. We have no idea how the actual trend is rn.

If you trust the confirmed case count as a proxy for the actual spread of the virus, the confirmed cases were only up about 9% daily yesterday. The daily increase was 35% before social distancing and has been decreasing since then. It's been 8.5-9% for the last 3 days.

[gachase21]

How would the biochemistry work out and the stuff I can’t discuss here that Lance Armstrong might consider

[gachase21]

An interesting now removed/deleted article on medium. sifts through most of the anecdotal evidence and bull**** provided by the msm. give it a read

https://archive.is/ONUmi

This is actually a really good write up.


Still inconclusive on the stuff. but great thoughts

[gachase21]

Wincel question:


What current % of the US population do you think already have the virus?

[z4v4]

2017-2018 flu season claimed 61k lives. It isn’t the flu, but it isn’t Ebola either. The case for crashing the economy and destroying people’s livelihoods is becoming less convincing each day. We did the right thing at the start, but the time to get back to normal is approaching. If we could get antibody testing done large-scale, we could kore forward with more confidence.

You sure it was 61K lives? I mean, you think the same people are not using the same metrics for h1n1 as they are for covid? Just lmao.

[SillieBazzillie]

Estimates put CV deaths at 500k w/o mitigation, flu deaths would be right there as well without mitigation. We still have tens of thousands of deaths in the US with vaccination and with herd immunity. Without those existing dampers flu deaths would be drastically higher than they are currently. It's not a stretch to think that the given the same environment that the flu and cv would kill a similar amount of people.

Today CV is more dangerous absolutely, my point was in following seasons it may end up killing even less people seasonally than the flu.

lol. Even with the country in lockdown Covid will kill 100k.