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10-26-2020, 10:04 AM #61
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10-26-2020, 10:04 AM #62
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10-26-2020, 10:05 AM #63
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10-26-2020, 10:07 AM #64
Strong grasp of math. If something happens that has a 30% a priori chance of happening, that's a minor upset, which is what the 2016 election was. The polls were generally fairly close (polls were Clinton +3 in the final average, Clinton was +2 in the final popular vote). It was the modelers that took a polling lead within the MoE and created a model that said "Clinton 98% chance to win" are the ones who got it really wrong. 538 took a close Clinton lead within the MoE and said "Clinton 70-30 to win", which was accurate based on the math and gave both sides a significant probability of winning with Trump as a minor upset if he pulls it off, which obviously, he did.
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10-26-2020, 10:08 AM #65
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10-26-2020, 10:08 AM #66
Lmao. Cool, he could have gotten cancer, but he didn't - he got covid and is out for the entire season. Who said anything about shutting the country down?
Natural selection is all the dumb trumpers going to rallies and getting infected and killing off their at-risk family members.
This pandemic has proven that when the big one hits, we're going to be wiped out.djt = light
light = divine truth
transitive law: if a is equal to b and b is equal to c, then a is equal to c
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10-26-2020, 10:10 AM #67
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10-26-2020, 10:13 AM #68
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10-26-2020, 10:13 AM #69
It's crazy how the media and blue checkmarks on twitter are absolutely refusing to acknowledge how strange Biden's behavior is.
He is running for president and has been hiding for WEEKS. He had to show up to the debates and has done one or two fake rehearsed interviews. Other than that, basically nothing. The guy is not fit to be president. It is clear as day. Sadly, the hatred for Trump is so strong that people are choosing to ignore it.
They won't be able to ignore it when Kamala is running the show though (if he wins, but it's looking likely, imo). There will be a lot of people who regret voting for Sleepy Joe. I guarantee it.
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10-26-2020, 10:15 AM #70
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10-26-2020, 10:16 AM #71
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10-26-2020, 10:16 AM #72
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10-26-2020, 10:18 AM #73
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10-26-2020, 10:19 AM #74
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10-26-2020, 10:19 AM #75
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10-26-2020, 10:19 AM #76
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10-26-2020, 10:20 AM #77
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10-26-2020, 10:21 AM #78
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10-26-2020, 10:21 AM #79
- Join Date: Jul 2009
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10-26-2020, 10:21 AM #80
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10-26-2020, 10:22 AM #81
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10-26-2020, 10:23 AM #82
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10-26-2020, 10:26 AM #83
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10-26-2020, 10:27 AM #84
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10-26-2020, 10:28 AM #85
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10-26-2020, 10:31 AM #86
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10-26-2020, 10:32 AM #87
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10-26-2020, 10:32 AM #88
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10-26-2020, 10:35 AM #89
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10-26-2020, 10:36 AM #90
30% is not "astronomically small" by anyone definition. Here are the final RCP polling averages from 2016:
MI: Clinton +3.4% (outcome Trump 0.3%)
OH: Trump +3.5% (outcome Trump 8.5%)
WI: Clinton +6.5% (outcome Trump 0.7%)
PA: Clinton +1.9% (outcome Trump 0.7%)
FL: Trump 0.2% (outcome Trump 1.2%)
So, OH was already predicted to flip to Trump and FL was more or less a 50-50 tossup. PA and MI were within polling MoE and were listed as toss-up on the RCP final map:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...llege_map.html
WI is the only state where there was a real miss that was predicted to go to Clinton. 538 correctly processed that information and said " looks close - Clinton at a small advantage but Trump could still pull off the upset".
Plus, these results are not all independent. The results are highly correlated because the pollsters missed bigly on one specific demographic - historically Dem small towns in rust belt states that flipped 25 points from Obama to Trump. These polling models have credibility calculations built in to temper wild swings in demographics with small sample sizes and this one happened to not be sampling error and happened to be significant enough to give Trump PA, MI, and WI. The pollsters were off by 3-7% in total in those states (and OH as well, although that was just understating Trump's margin there) because of not fully recognizing the extent of the swing in that one demographic.
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