Rasmussen: Trump leading nationally

**z4v4** · 10-26-2020, 10:04 AM

Originally Posted by chaunce54

lol at not understanding how odds work.

This is probably the dumbest post you've ever made, and there are a lot to choose from. Lol @ Googling how betting lines work and then coming to that conclusion, derp.

If you're so confident on Trump winning, will you lay me 10-1? Ah, see...?

**kingHanley** · 10-26-2020, 10:04 AM

Originally Posted by NYPat

Ouch. Trump is going to have a hard time winning if Biden takes PA.

And it looks like Biden has increased his leads in MI, WI, and PA.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...-and-penn-poll

The hill lmao? The hill is stating that “one new poll shows...”

**terrorgunt** · 10-26-2020, 10:05 AM

Originally Posted by z4v4

This is probably the dumbest post you've ever made, and there are a lot to choose from. Lol @ Googling how betting lines work and then coming to that conclusion, derp.

If you're so confident on Trump winning, will you lay me 10-1? Ah, see...?

Here we go boyos!!! Another bet to welch on!!!

FirSt DoNAtE 1K to St J00des.

**Jayarbie** · 10-26-2020, 10:07 AM

Originally Posted by Jrd86

The polls are fake.

538's 2016 presidential election forecast 1 day before the election
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Strong grasp of math. If something happens that has a 30% a priori chance of happening, that's a minor upset, which is what the 2016 election was. The polls were generally fairly close (polls were Clinton +3 in the final average, Clinton was +2 in the final popular vote). It was the modelers that took a polling lead within the MoE and created a model that said "Clinton 98% chance to win" are the ones who got it really wrong. 538 took a close Clinton lead within the MoE and said "Clinton 70-30 to win", which was accurate based on the math and gave both sides a significant probability of winning with Trump as a minor upset if he pulls it off, which obviously, he did.

**ceizer1985** · 10-26-2020, 10:08 AM

Originally Posted by Procta

no wonder Biden put a lid on it til after the election

Except he didn't.

**z4v4** · 10-26-2020, 10:08 AM

Originally Posted by pondus_levo

And? Any one of a million viruses or diseases could have also caused that. Why don't we shut down the contry for any of those?

Not everyone can be saved no matter what we do. It's called life. It's called natural selection. THe spread was NEVER going to be stopped. The point was to slow it down, which we did. 200 days ago.

Lmao. Cool, he could have gotten cancer, but he didn't - he got covid and is out for the entire season. Who said anything about shutting the country down?

Natural selection is all the dumb trumpers going to rallies and getting infected and killing off their at-risk family members.

This pandemic has proven that when the big one hits, we're going to be wiped out.

**z4v4** · 10-26-2020, 10:10 AM

Originally Posted by terrorgunt

Here we go boyos!!! Another bet to welch on!!!

FirSt DoNAtE 1K to St J00des.

You start a thread saying you want to video chat a mod and prove you're younger than 50 and I lol'd at you and told you I'd video chat with you to be sure it's you, and you decline and I welched? Derp...

Time for you to grow up, cockboy.

**terrorgunt** · 10-26-2020, 10:13 AM

Originally Posted by z4v4

You start a thread saying you want to video chat a mod and prove you're younger than 50 and I lol'd at you and told you I'd video chat with you to be sure it's you, and you decline and I welched? Derp...

Time for you to grow up, cockboy.

lmao at you wanting to "facetime" me with your teenage girl iphone you broke *******.

You can't pay a bet if you can't even afford a real phone.

My ToNe iSNt goOD EVeN ThO I aM WorLDcLAss ToP of JoolLIArD pLAYer

Pff.. worst excuse for not wanting to show your suck ever... "I WoUld BuT My tONE"

**Gainzzz** · 10-26-2020, 10:13 AM

It's crazy how the media and blue checkmarks on twitter are absolutely refusing to acknowledge how strange Biden's behavior is.

He is running for president and has been hiding for WEEKS. He had to show up to the debates and has done one or two fake rehearsed interviews. Other than that, basically nothing. The guy is not fit to be president. It is clear as day. Sadly, the hatred for Trump is so strong that people are choosing to ignore it.

They won't be able to ignore it when Kamala is running the show though (if he wins, but it's looking likely, imo). There will be a lot of people who regret voting for Sleepy Joe. I guarantee it.

**z4v4** · 10-26-2020, 10:15 AM

Originally Posted by terrorgunt

lmao at you wanting to "facetime" me with your teenage girl iphone you broke *******.

You can't pay a bet if you can't even afford a real phone.

My ToNe iSNt goOD EVeN ThO I aM WorLDcLAss ToP of JoolLIArD pLAYer

Facetime > any other video chat platform for video quality. Sorry you can't afford an iPhone even though you're in your 50's living with your aging parents.

**z4v4** · 10-26-2020, 10:16 AM

Originally Posted by Gainzzz

It's crazy how the media and blue checkmarks on twitter are absolutely refusing to acknowledge how strange Biden's behavior is.

He is running for president and has been hiding for WEEKS. He had to show up to the debates and has done one or two fake rehearsed interviews. Other than that, basically nothing. The guy is not fit to be president. It is clear as day. Sadly, the hatred for Trump is so strong that people are choosing to ignore it.

They won't be able to ignore it when Kamala is running the show though (if he wins, but it's looking likely, imo). There will be a lot of people who regret voting for Sleepy Joe. I guarantee it.

There's a pandemic, remember??? It's also getting worse than it's ever been. It's also going to be a key reason why your boy is going to lose.

**terrorgunt** · 10-26-2020, 10:16 AM

Originally Posted by z4v4

Facetime > any other video chat platform for video quality. Sorry you can't afford an iPhone even though you're in your 50's living with your aging parents.

Facetime is literally the worst video chat client. lmao @ being stuck with proprietary apps because you're a talentless, broke *******.

"I reTirEd At 32 So I CaN MiSc All dAy"

**Holyfenix** · 10-26-2020, 10:18 AM

Originally Posted by Jayarbie

The most accurate pollster from 2016 was IBD/TIPP. They currently have Biden +7, which is up from +5 last week.

Why are you hoping a ****phile will be your president.

This is what you support. So I can only make the conclusion that you like to inappropriately touch children too.

**Gainzzz** · 10-26-2020, 10:19 AM

Originally Posted by z4v4

There's a pandemic, remember??? It's also getting worse than it's ever been. It's also going to be a key reason why your boy is going to lose.

I know you're quite retarded but you can't be THIS gullible????

It's because his team are terrified of another "hair legs" moment. fkin lmao

I mean he forgot who he was running against for a few seconds just earlier today.

**terrorgunt** · 10-26-2020, 10:19 AM

Originally Posted by Holyfenix

Why are you hoping a ****phile will be your president.

This is what you support. So I can only make the conclusion that you like to inappropriately touch children too.

Neither he nor z4v4 disavow p3dophilia.

Pretty gross.

**Austanian** · 10-26-2020, 10:19 AM

Originally Posted by z4v4

Meanwhile:

-223 Biden
+170 Trump

Muahahahahaha.

Where? I see.
Trump +125
Biden -165

I will throw down at Trump +170.

**terrorgunt** · 10-26-2020, 10:20 AM

Originally Posted by Austanian

Where? I see.
Trump +125
Biden -165

I will throw down at Trump +170.

He's an idiot. z4 posts from high school.

**z4v4** · 10-26-2020, 10:21 AM

Originally Posted by terrorgunt

Facetime is literally the worst video chat client. lmao @ being stuck with proprietary apps because you're a talentless, broke *******.

"I reTirEd At 32 So I CaN MiSc All dAy"

Do you at least do chores around the house, or is it just "Damn it mom, I'd busy doing something" and that something is trolling a guy that can actually play guitar?

Again, post your video in the thread you started and I'll post mine, and let's see who is talentless.

**Austanian** · 10-26-2020, 10:21 AM

Originally Posted by Jayarbie

Strong grasp of math. If something happens that has a 30% a priori chance of happening, that's a minor upset, which is what the 2016 election was. The polls were generally fairly close (polls were Clinton +3 in the final average, Clinton was +2 in the final popular vote). It was the modelers that took a polling lead within the MoE and created a model that said "Clinton 98% chance to win" are the ones who got it really wrong. 538 took a close Clinton lead within the MoE and said "Clinton 70-30 to win", which was accurate based on the math and gave both sides a significant probability of winning with Trump as a minor upset if he pulls it off, which obviously, he did.

That is not how this works...

Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, PA, FL are all independent surveys with independent outcomes.

The probability of the polls being "Right" and all of those coming up trump positive in each one are astronomically small.

**z4v4** · 10-26-2020, 10:21 AM

Originally Posted by Austanian

Where? I see.
Trump +125
Biden -165

I will throw down at Trump +170.

Bwin. Enjoy, son.

**Jayarbie** · 10-26-2020, 10:22 AM

Originally Posted by terrorgunt

Neither he nor z4v4 disavow p3dophilia.

Pretty gross.

I disavow p3dophilia. What are you talking about?

**terrorgunt** · 10-26-2020, 10:23 AM

Originally Posted by z4v4

Do you at least do chores around the house, or is it just "Damn it mom, I'd busy doing something" and that something is trolling a guy that can actually play guitar?

Again, post your video in the thread you started and I'll post mine, and let's see who is talentless.

You literally don't play guitar, son.

zFraud'n.

Oh then you said "I can sing"

lmaaaaaaaoooo

Do you sing in the dark?

**z4v4** · 10-26-2020, 10:26 AM

Originally Posted by Gainzzz

I know you're quite retarded but you can't be THIS gullible????

It's because his team are terrified of another "hair legs" moment. fkin lmao

I mean he forgot who he was running against for a few seconds just earlier today.

Sure. He did two town halls and two debates against Trump and he's speaking remotely regularly. Yeah, they're just keeping him in hiding.

**z4v4** · 10-26-2020, 10:27 AM

Originally Posted by terrorgunt

You literally don't play guitar, son.

zFraud'n.

Oh then you said "I can sing"

lmaaaaaaaoooo

Do you sing in the dark?

Hmmm... for a guy who claims he doxxed me, you sure don't know **** about me.

**terrorgunt** · 10-26-2020, 10:28 AM

Originally Posted by z4v4

Hmmm... for a guy who claims he doxxed me, you sure don't know **** about me.

Imagine being "retired" at 32 and browsing Misc 19/7 the way this guy does.... lmao

Yeah - doesn't add up.

**z4v4** · 10-26-2020, 10:31 AM

Originally Posted by terrorgunt

Imagine being "retired" at 32 and browsing Misc 19/7 the way this guy does.... lmao

Yeah - doesn't add up.

Dude, you have 1800 posts in 4 months. What's your secret? You know mine - I retired at 42.

**HMFIC_BROWSIN** · 10-26-2020, 10:32 AM

Originally Posted by terrorgunt

I heard Biden has a 101% chance of winning. Chances so high they changed mathematics.

A tds sufferer literally told me this IRL, and was being srs. Lmfao

**terrorgunt** · 10-26-2020, 10:32 AM

Originally Posted by z4v4

Dude, you have 1800 posts in 4 months. What's your secret? You know mine - I retired at 42.

PS: We know you're not retired. Unemployed, yes. On assistance, yes.

**z4v4** · 10-26-2020, 10:35 AM

Originally Posted by terrorgunt

PS: We know you're not retired. Unemployed, yes. On assistance, yes.

Projection at its finest, son.

**Jayarbie** · 10-26-2020, 10:36 AM

Originally Posted by Austanian

That is not how this works...

Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, PA, FL are all independent surveys with independent outcomes.

The probability of the polls being "Right" and all of those coming up trump positive in each one are astronomically small.

30% is not "astronomically small" by anyone definition. Here are the final RCP polling averages from 2016:

MI: Clinton +3.4% (outcome Trump 0.3%)
OH: Trump +3.5% (outcome Trump 8.5%)
WI: Clinton +6.5% (outcome Trump 0.7%)
PA: Clinton +1.9% (outcome Trump 0.7%)
FL: Trump 0.2% (outcome Trump 1.2%)

So, OH was already predicted to flip to Trump and FL was more or less a 50-50 tossup. PA and MI were within polling MoE and were listed as toss-up on the RCP final map:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...llege_map.html

WI is the only state where there was a real miss that was predicted to go to Clinton. 538 correctly processed that information and said " looks close - Clinton at a small advantage but Trump could still pull off the upset".

Plus, these results are not all independent. The results are highly correlated because the pollsters missed bigly on one specific demographic - historically Dem small towns in rust belt states that flipped 25 points from Obama to Trump. These polling models have credibility calculations built in to temper wild swings in demographics with small sample sizes and this one happened to not be sampling error and happened to be significant enough to give Trump PA, MI, and WI. The pollsters were off by 3-7% in total in those states (and OH as well, although that was just understating Trump's margin there) because of not fully recognizing the extent of the swing in that one demographic.

Thread: Rasmussen: Trump leading nationally

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