Unemployment rate down to 3.7% vs. expected 3.9%; Biden PRAISED for soft landing

[nutsy54]

So you think unemployment should go down until it hits zero boyo? Minor fluctuations you don't think are normal?

And GDP just hit 5%.

How awesome is Biden doing boyo!

When you need to argue with fake claims I never said, you know you've lost... And let's see what GDP actually does after inevitable revisions and into the next quarters.

[AlfBundy]

Sorry boyo, it's clear you have zero clue about anything economic related. You literally blamed inflation on "consumer expectations" and acted like supply chains maggled under Trump had no impact.

I'd be better off arguing with a wall.

Again, more blue haired spin and lies. I blamed inflation on the American Rescue Plan, as evidenced by this simple chart:

[GenXTrumpFan]

When you need to argue with fake claims I never said, you know you've lost... And let's see what GDP actually does after inevitable revisions and into the next quarters.

LOL

Boyo, do you think an increase from 3.4% to 3.7% is unusual and represents a worsening economy? Cause that's how you're putting the information forward.

And lol and inevitable revisions. Why can't you simply celebrate the booming economy with close to record low unemployment, booming GDP, low inflation, high wage growth, booming stock market, etc.

It's like you conservatives want things to be bad.

SAD

[GenXTrumpFan]

Again, more blue haired spin and lies. I blamed inflation on the American Rescue Plan, as evidenced by this simple chart:

Explain to me how Biden signing a piece of paper doubled inflation in less than 3 months. After it had already doubled the prior 3 months.

Your little chart proves my point boyo no matter how hard you try to avoid it.

I win yet again.

[AlfBundy]

I win yet again.

And America loses. Thanks Biden

[ltsOgre]

So you can't actually provide proof of your empty claims, while also trying to change your claim. Got it. If you can't "just Google" and provide a link, why should anyone else believe you?

Real wages have been FLAT for the past two years, and are lower than under pre-pandemic Trump
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

I said the last few months have had solid wage growth relative to inflation. 2022 was a tough year for inflation, we know that. Trump's policies were still in effect at the time. We are starting to see the full potential of Biden's policies now and moving into 2024.

[fitnessislife]

Explain to me how Biden signing a piece of paper doubled inflation in less than 3 months. After it had already doubled the prior 3 months.

Your little chart proves my point boyo no matter how hard you try to avoid it.

I win yet again.

Now you're pivoting to try and say that the president isn't ultimately responsible for anything that happens during his term in office.

You're getting ratio'd hopelessly, Pops. You'd be wise to just give up.

[fitnessislife]

I said the last few months have had solid wage growth relative to inflation. 2022 was a tough year for inflation, we know that. Trump's policies were still in effect at the time. We are starting to see the full potential of Biden's policies now and moving into 2024.

Trump's policies were still in effect over a year after Biden came in? Lol.

[ltsOgre]

Trump's policies were still in effect over a year after Biden came in? Lol.

It generally takes eighteen to twenty four months for a president's policies to affect the economy. Trump shouldn't have pressured the fed to keep interest rates low in 2109. I blame him for the loss of confidence in the US dollar.

[Stizzel]

Explain to me how Biden signing a piece of paper doubled inflation in less than 3 months. After it had already doubled the prior 3 months.

Your little chart proves my point boyo no matter how hard you try to avoid it.

I win yet again.

Socialism doesn't work

[niospecv]

[6gorillion]

Explain to me how Biden signing a piece of paper doubled inflation in less than 3 months. After it had already doubled the prior 3 months.

Your little chart proves my point boyo no matter how hard you try to avoid it.

I win yet again.

I honestly can't tell if you're straight up brain dead or just a troll.

[nutsy54]

I said the last few months have had solid wage growth relative to inflation.

And I proved that claim is a flat-out LIE...
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

You also claimed the "QUALITY" of jobs has increased, while providing no proof of that vague claim.

2022 was a tough year for inflation, we know that. Trump's policies were still in effect at the time. We are starting to see the full potential of Biden's policies now and moving into 2024.

So now Biden is responsible for nothing, unless it's claimed to be good news?

[nutsy54]

LOL

Boyo, do you think an increase from 3.4% to 3.7% is unusual and represents a worsening economy? Cause that's how you're putting the information forward.

I think it's laughable to "PRAISE" a steadily increasing unemployment rate

Why can't you simply celebrate the booming economy with close to record low unemployment, booming GDP, low inflation, high wage growth, booming stock market, etc.

Because I don't celebrate fiction & lies...
- Once again, unemployment has been increasing throughout 2023
- Real GDP isn't "booming", it's been on a steady increase for decades https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA
- Inflation is the highest it's been in 20 years https://tradingeconomics.com/united-.../inflation-cpi
- Wage growth is stagnant https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
- The stock market always goes up in the long term... but the S&P 500 being LOWER today than two years ago is not "booming"

Once again, why does it take so many lies to prop up Biden's failures?

[Abzu]

you think they are done at 5.5? when do you think cuts start next year?

The market is currently pricing in a pause since July 2023, rate cuts to begin by March to May of 2024 and for the fed to cut 5 to 6 times for a 150bps cut through 2024.

The fed is going to meet tomorrow and throw those expectations out the window, they will likely leave one more hike on the table, likely push rate cuts out to September-November with a likely maximum of 2 cuts or 50bps, unemployment just went down to 3.7% from 3.9% and CPI held steady.

When the fed is going to cut rates is partially dependent on when they paused rates, this is why the fed won't make it clear if they are on pause or not lol, if the fed is on pause then you can ignore Jerome's words tomorrow and assume cuts begin before July, if the fed is not on pause and one more hike is possible then cuts likely won't begin until after September.



If Jerome says what I think he is going to say then the market will start moving down shortly thereafter, this could signal a larger crash but there are possible catalysts to bring the market back up to say 4500 sometime in Q1 2024, buying longterm puts now may require you to buy them again in Q1 to average down.

If you buy puts, you will very likely make some money but don't ask me strike and expiration.

The higher the strike and the longer the expiration the safer you will be.

[Kraken]

Let’s take a look at the downfalls of Keynesian economics and why it causes confusion and issues with determining what is going wrong. The entire problem is based around central planning and decision making.

When the government “creates jobs”, it’s jobs that the economy would not normally support due to a lack of demand. This creates a “boom” in that industry. Meanwhile, the industries and markets that do have demand potentially don’t have the labor needed to meet demands, possibly a result of displacing those laborers from one market to another. Up front, all we see are “jobs created” and lower unemployment. Now, the industry that got those jobs created a false demand, which pumps investments in to that industry. Then, then the work is finished, the demand completely disappears, and everyone that invested in that market has to liquidate.

Same thing happens with stimulus money. People get their money, but if you see my economics thread, you see that people spend stimulus money differently than they spend their hard earned money. So they buy things they wouldn’t normally buy, inflating those industries. This is the boom. People see the boom, and start investing more in to those markets/industries. Once again, once the money runs out, the investors are suddenly stuck in a bad situation. They invested in to an industry based on a temporary boom. Now they have to liquidate because those were bad investments.

For example, we are supplying products for war. This pushes scarce resources to the MIC, and draws them away from other industries that have a demand for them, causing supply shortages and increases in prices. In other words, the consumer and tax payers are subsidizing the war by sacrificing what they want and need.

Now, the other issue here is that the intelligent and rich investors understand this, so they ride the boom and quickly escape. This causes a transfer of wealth to them, and the middle class and low income suffer the most. The consumer suffers too.

So unemployment looks good, GDP looks good…but it’s all absolute hogwash. It’s not on anything the economy actually demands. This is the “boom-bust” cycle. In other words, the crash is coming, and it is inevitable, and its all caused by the (mostly) Keynesians and their “stimulus” fallacy

[Abzu]

The market is currently pricing in a pause since July 2023, rate cuts to begin by March to May of 2024 and for the fed to cut 5 to 6 times for a 150bps cut through 2024.

The fed is going to meet tomorrow and throw those expectations out the window, they will likely leave one more hike on the table, likely push rate cuts out to September-November with a likely maximum of 2 cuts or 50bps, unemployment just went down to 3.7% from 3.9% and CPI held steady.

When the fed is going to cut rates is partially dependent on when they paused rates, this is why the fed won't make it clear if they are on pause or not lol, if the fed is on pause then you can ignore Jerome's words tomorrow and assume cuts begin before July, if the fed is not on pause and one more hike is possible then cuts likely won't begin until after September.



If Jerome says what I think he is going to say then the market will start moving down shortly thereafter, this could signal a larger crash but there are possible catalysts to bring the market back up to say 4500 sometime in Q1 2024, buying longterm puts now may require you to buy them again in Q1 to average down.

If you buy puts, you will very likely make some money but don't ask me strike and expiration.

The higher the strike and the longer the expiration the safer you will be.

I'll follow up on this post just in case anyone took my advice, I'm going to go over my predictions, how they panned out and any changes in my outlook.

1. The fed will leave one rate hike on the table - The fed moved the terminal rate from 5.6 to 5.4 but the chair said "at or near the end of the (hike)cycle" - I would say my prediction was half-right since the chair didn't definitively declare the end of the cycle but the paperwork does.

2. The fed will stick with 2 rate cuts as opposed to 5 to 6 - The fed announced 3 cuts panned in 2024 as of now - I would again say my prediction was half-right since he didn't say 2 as I expected but he also didn't say 5 to 6 as the market expects.

3. The fed will push cuts to Sep-Nov - The fed announced 3 cuts and they believe the economy is strong - I would say my prediction was correct since the last 3 meetings are Sep-Nov-Dec and the fed believes the economy doesn't need cuts.

The media painted Jerome as dovish in his comments but he was not, he did not give the market what it wanted(5-6 cuts and a definitive pause) but it ran with the fed announcing a 3rd cut in 2024 and all but verbally confirming that we are on pause.

My outlook has changed in that I expect a short-term pull back, a move to around 4800, crash/rate cuts, an uptick in inflation, a pause on cuts, inflation uptick reverses, fed resumes cuts until around 3.5 then a really major event to 0.



Ask yourself what happens when the fed funds are at 0 and they have exhausted their other methods of stimulus in a deflationary environment.



I entered puts when the spy was at 465 and 475, I'm not saying strike or expiration but it's above 420 lol and goes longer than January.

[Jasonw1178]

If things are so great, then why are they so bad? srs

[frankdtank20]

I'll follow up on this post just in case anyone took my advice, I'm going to go over my predictions, how they panned out and any changes in my outlook.

1. The fed will leave one rate hike on the table - The fed moved the terminal rate from 5.6 to 5.4 but the chair said "at or near the end of the (hike)cycle" - I would say my prediction was half-right since the chair didn't definitively declare the end of the cycle but the paperwork does.

2. The fed will stick with 2 rate cuts as opposed to 5 to 6 - The fed announced 3 cuts panned in 2024 as of now - I would again say my prediction was half-right since he didn't say 2 as I expected but he also didn't say 5 to 6 as the market expects.

3. The fed will push cuts to Sep-Nov - The fed announced 3 cuts and they believe the economy is strong - I would say my prediction was correct since the last 3 meetings are Sep-Nov-Dec and the fed believes the economy doesn't need cuts.

The media painted Jerome as dovish in his comments but he was not, he did not give the market what it wanted(5-6 cuts and a definitive pause) but it ran with the fed announcing a 3rd cut in 2024 and all but verbally confirming that we are on pause.

My outlook has changed in that I expect a short-term pull back, a move to around 4800, crash/rate cuts, an uptick in inflation, a pause on cuts, inflation uptick reverses, fed resumes cuts until around 3.5 then a really major event to 0.



Ask yourself what happens when the fed funds are at 0 and they have exhausted their other methods of stimulus in a deflationary environment.



I entered puts when the spy was at 465 and 475, I'm not saying strike or expiration but it's above 420 lol and goes longer than January.

3.5 FF rate or lower is unlikely within two years. The neutral rate has risen along with the Federal Funds rate. As more time passes the neutral rate is near certain to keep rising even if the Fed keeps the federal funds rates paused through the first half of 2024. The effect is as if the Fed did small rate cuts even if they keep their rate flat. So no need for drastic cuts in 2025 after 75 total basis cuts in late 2024 unless a crash happens.

[nutsy54]

If things are so great, then why are they so bad? srs

Everything is great under Biden!
But all the problems are Trump's fault

[Abzu]

I'll follow up on this post just in case anyone took my advice, I'm going to go over my predictions, how they panned out and any changes in my outlook.

1. The fed will leave one rate hike on the table - The fed moved the terminal rate from 5.6 to 5.4 but the chair said "at or near the end of the (hike)cycle" - I would say my prediction was half-right since the chair didn't definitively declare the end of the cycle but the paperwork does.

2. The fed will stick with 2 rate cuts as opposed to 5 to 6 - The fed announced 3 cuts panned in 2024 as of now - I would again say my prediction was half-right since he didn't say 2 as I expected but he also didn't say 5 to 6 as the market expects.

3. The fed will push cuts to Sep-Nov - The fed announced 3 cuts and they believe the economy is strong - I would say my prediction was correct since the last 3 meetings are Sep-Nov-Dec and the fed believes the economy doesn't need cuts.

The media painted Jerome as dovish in his comments but he was not, he did not give the market what it wanted(5-6 cuts and a definitive pause) but it ran with the fed announcing a 3rd cut in 2024 and all but verbally confirming that we are on pause.

My outlook has changed in that I expect a short-term pull back, a move to around 4800, crash/rate cuts, an uptick in inflation, a pause on cuts, inflation uptick reverses, fed resumes cuts until around 3.5 then a really major event to 0.



Ask yourself what happens when the fed funds are at 0 and they have exhausted their other methods of stimulus in a deflationary environment.



I entered puts when the spy was at 465 and 475, I'm not saying strike or expiration but it's above 420 lol and goes longer than January.

I know I can (I know I can)
Be what I wanna be (Be what I wanna be)
If I work hard at it (If I work hard at it)
I'll be where I wanna be (I'll be where I wanna be)






Be, b-boys and girls, listen up
You can be anything in the world, in God we trust
An architect, doctor, maybe an actress
But nothing comes easy, it takes much practice
Like, I met a woman who's becoming a star
She was very beautiful, leaving people in awe
Singing songs, Lena Horne, but the younger version
Hung with the wrong person, got her strung on that heroin
(c)ocaine, sniffing up drugs, all in her nose
Could've died, so young, now looks ugly and old
No fun 'cause now when she reaches for hugs, people hold they breath
'Cause she smells of corrosion and death
Watch the company you keep and the crowd you bring
'Cause they came to do drugs and you came to King
So if you gonna be the best, I'ma tell you how
Put your hands in the air, and take the vow

Be, b-boys and girls, listen again
This is for grown-looking girls who's only 10
The ones who watch videos and do what they see
As cute as can be, up in the club with fake ID
Careful, 'fore you meet a man with HIV
You can host the TV like Oprah Winfrey
Whatever you decide, be careful, some men be
Rapists, so act your age, don't pretend to be
Older than you are, give yourself time to grow
You thinking he can give you wealth, but so
Young boys, you can use a lot of help, you know
You thinking life's all about smoking weed and ice
You don't wanna be my age and can't read and write
Begging different women for a place to sleep at night
Smart boys turn to men and do whatever they wish
If you believe you can achieve, then say it like this

If the truth is told, the youth can grow
They learn to survive until they gain control
Nobody says you have to be gangstas, hoes
Read more, learn more, change the globe
Ghetto children, do your thing
Hold your head up, little man, you're a king
Young princess, when you get your wedding ring
Your man will sing, "She's my Queeeeeen"

[Abzu]

My original strike price was 455 expiring at the end of Feb but I've managed this trade and I currently have a strike price of 465 going past Feb.

I bought options 3 times, before the fed meeting when the market was at 465 and after the fed meeting at 475 and 478.

I was able to manage the trade by going overweight when the market went higher and selling off on short moves down.



This is an important week so if you havent started buying puts, I think you should think about it, this is not going to be a crash but it will be a correction so you need to be prepared to get out when the time comes.



After I exit this trade, I'm reentering in the other direction with expiration no later than July and a strike price no higher than 450, I have an idea for the next trade after that as well but lets not get too far ahead of ourselves lol.

[Kraken]

This is an important week so if you havent started buying puts, I think you should think about it, this is not going to be a crash but it will be a correction so you need to be prepared to get out when the time comes.

Just FYI, Correction, crash, and bust are all the same thing, because they are all caused by the same thing

[Abzu]

Just FYI, Correction, crash, and bust are all the same thing, because they are all caused by the same thing

When I say correction I generally mean a ~10% move down, when I say a crash I mean a move greater than ~10%, a 10% move down would put the S&P around 4400 if you want an idea of my price target.

I actually think this next move down could be slightly more than 10% but it still won't be a crash.

I expect the market to pick back up to 4500-4900 before July.



I also want to say I was wrong about the correction coming shortly after the fed meeting, this is taking longer than I expected but I still have the same market sentiment, I'm going to respond to Frank's post with more detail in that respect.

[JonZ]

Nothing like getting a second job to pay the bills while being told the economy couldn't be better

Or putting everything on debt.

[nutsy54]

Honestly giving hats off to Biden here.

Let me guess... the criticism will be stunningly silent?

March 8, 2024:
"The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage point to 3.9 percent in February, and the number of unemployed people increased by 334,000 to 6.5 million. A year earlier, the jobless rate was 3.6 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.0 million."
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

[suave2000]

hell yeah

GO BIDEN GO

Cant denny the BIDENBOOM BABY

we boomin JACK

[nutsy54]

hell yeah

GO BIDEN GO

Cant denny the BIDENBOOM BABY

we boomin JACK

Unemployment has been overall increasing for nearly a year. How is that a "Boom"? (Or are you simply mocking Ecto's laughably failed thread?)

[Kraken]

We also have to understand the causes of unemployment. For example, when there is an increase in efficiency in a market, unemployment can go up. This is the argument that the technocrats use in justifying their ideals for protest against technology in an industry. However, long term unemployment goes back down, because the new tech/efficiencies open up work in other areas of the industry.

Unemployment caused by the government is never a good sign though, because government decreases efficiencies, and never recovers those jobs elsewhere, leading to a net loss.

Only the market can create economic growth that benefits the people. Economic growth created by the government is short lived (Stimulus), and leads to a correction/bust, which is an indication it was the wrong decision.

So while government can make numbers look good, understand that a vast majority of the bureaucrats and politicians are economically illiterate, which isn’t a problem for them, because most citizens are economically illiterate and don’t know any better. So politicians take credit for what the market is doing naturally, or take credit for a temporary boost to the economy, but they all disappear when it’s time to pay up for the stimulus.

[frankdtank20]

We also have to understand the causes of unemployment. For example, when there is an increase in efficiency in a market, unemployment can go up. This is the argument that the technocrats use in justifying their ideals for protest against technology in an industry. However, long term unemployment goes back down, because the new tech/efficiencies open up work in other areas of the industry.

Unemployment caused by the government is never a good sign though, because government decreases efficiencies, and never recovers those jobs elsewhere, leading to a net loss.

Only the market can create economic growth that benefits the people. Economic growth created by the government is short lived (Stimulus), and leads to a correction/bust, which is an indication it was the wrong decision.

So while government can make numbers look good, understand that a vast majority of the bureaucrats and politicians are economically illiterate, which isn’t a problem for them, because most citizens are economically illiterate and don’t know any better. So politicians take credit for what the market is doing naturally, or take credit for a temporary boost to the economy, but they all disappear when it’s time to pay up for the stimulus.

Good points. I'll add what I've mentioned in other threads. Normally 10% or more of jobs created in a year going to government indicates the economy is in recession. Last year 25%, yes 25 friggin percent of net jobs added were government jobs, fed and state. And given government is built to absorb inefficiency rarely do those jobs go away. If and when there are govt job layoffs the people often just find another govt job within a few months. The only time people seem to leave govt jobs and go work in the private sector is after they can collect pension and benefits for life. I don't even blame people who stick with govt jobs anymore, they're mostly way less stress and have good benefits. Gotta look our for #1, not be too proud and work at a higher stress job that doesn't fulfill you if you can have a relative cakewalk instead. Especially if you're not built for entrepreneurship, which most people aren't.

If we hit a recession at some time in the next year the govt hiring spree will definitely continue, to keep unemployment from getting too high.